Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2023

[Oskanohana 261]

For stupideness sake, here's my GTJB prediction. Mind you, it's my prediction, not what I'd like or do.

Daiamami (J4e 9-6)      J1   Mitoryu (J4w 9-6)
Nishikifuji (M16w 6-9)  J2   Tohakuryu (M15e 5-10)
Roga (M16e 5-10)        J3   Kotoeko (M10w 2-8-5)
Kitanowaka (M17e 5-10)  J4   Tamashoho (J7w 9-6)
Chiyoshoma (J6e 8-7)    J5   Oshoma (J3w 6-9)
Kagayaki (J3e 5-10)     J6   Tokihayate (J8w 8-7)
Takahashi (J9e 8-7)     J7   Shishi (J5w 6-9)
Shimanoumi (J12e 9-6)   J8   Shiden (J12w 9-6)
Asakoryu (J13w 9-6)     J9   Daishoho (J7e 5-10)
Chiyomaru (J8e 4-7-4)   J10  Takerufuji (Ms1w 6-1)
Akua (J10e 5-10)        J11  Tenshoho (J10w 5-10)
Hidenoumi (J11w 6-7-2)  J12  Hakuyozan (Ms1e 4-3)
Yuma (J13e 7-8)         J13  Oshoumi (Ms2w 4-3)
Chiyosakae (J14e 7-8)   J14  Tochimusashi (Ms3e 4-3)

It's esentially Asashosakari's guess until J9w (I was getting nervous about it) and then it's pandemonium.

[Bunbukuchagama 732]

5 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

I'll be genuinely interested to see how they treat Hakuoho, given that the expectation is that he's coming back.

Wakatakakage landed just outside of top 5 in a similar situation.

[Seiyashi 4,098]

I rate Hakuōhō as more likely to pull another 7-0, though.

[Asashosakari 19,427]

I'm surprised so many people take it as given that he's going to show up in January, considering the publicly communicated vibe back in August was "he's likely to have to start his comeback from a lower rank than his original debut".

[Reonito 1,470]

3 hours ago, Oskanohana said:

For stupideness sake, here's my GTJB prediction. Mind you, it's my prediction, not what I'd like or do.
Chiyomaru (J8e 4-7-4)   J10  Takerufuji (Ms1w 6-1)
Akua (J10e 5-10)        J11  Tenshoho (J10w 5-10)
Hidenoumi (J11w 6-7-2)  J12  Hakuyozan (Ms1e 4-3)
Yuma (J13e 7-8)         J13  Oshoumi (Ms2w 4-3)
Chiyosakae (J14e 7-8)   J14  Tochimusashi (Ms3e 4-3)

It's esentially Asashosakari's guess until J9w (I was getting nervous about it) and then it's pandemonium.

This is what I ended up with too, except with Takerufuji and Chiyomaru flipped. It's pretty much the only way to squeeze everyone into J11-J14 without promoting MK, giving at least a minimal demotion for <7 wins, and not placing any of the promotees above J12.

[Reonito 1,470]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Wakatakakage landed just outside of top 5 in a similar situation.

He was also half a rank lower in juryo, FWIW

[Reonito 1,470]

So what do we think would have happened if Takakento won on day 15? Would he have stayed at Tochimusashi's expense?

[Gurowake 4,088]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

So what do we think would have happened if Takakento won on day 15? Would he have stayed at Tochimusashi's expense?

He would have still been demoted, IMO. There were a lot of different possibilities on the last day; that it turned out one of the matches didn't matter isn't all that strange.  If Chiyosakae had lost, then it would have become relevant that Tsushimanada won. Maybe they could have picked them better, but it's tough to work through all the possibilities and make sure each exchange match matters in all situations, and there's no guarantee that such a schedule is possible.  Keep in mind they had to schedule either both or neither of the 3-3 makushitans into Juryo, and the Kitadaichi - Tenshoho match was definitely relevant.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,088]

10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

                        J10  Hakuyozan (Ms1e 4-3)
Oshoumi (Ms2w 4-3)      J11  Tochimusashi (Ms3e 4-3)
Hidenoumi (J11w 6-7-2)  J12  Chiyomaru (J8e 4-7-4)
Yuma (J13e 7-8)         J13  Akua (J10e 5-10)
Chiyosakae (J14e 7-8)   J14  Tenshoho (J10w 5-10)

This is basically what I had at first as well, but it just seemed in general that they really don't want to have promotees who just barely scraped enough wins together too high in the division.  That and Shimanoumi's famous weak demotion recently made me feel like they're willing to give such weak demotions as I suggested, even if they're even worse than Shimanoumi's.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,470]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

He would have still been demoted, IMO. There were a lot of different possibilities on the last day; that it turned out one of the matches didn't matter isn't all that strange.  If Chiyosakae had lost, then it would have become relevant that Tsushimanada won. Maybe they could have picked them better, but it's tough to work through all the possibilities and make sure each exchange match matters in all situations, and there's no guarantee that such a schedule is possible.  Keep in mind they had to schedule either both or neither of the 3-3 makushitans into Juryo, and the Kitadaichi - Tenshoho match was definitely relevant.

I guess they should have gone with Chiyosakae vs. Tsushimanada, but I can't reconstruct whether there was a good reason they didn't.