Oho-ho! (Wrong holiday for the 2000, Valentine boy) for 2024

[Jejima 1,363]

Oho was born on St Valentine's Day, 2000 and is the very first rikishi born after January 1st, 2000 to become a sekitori.

His highest rank to date was M6W in July 2023.

How will he do in 2024? Will he make it to the joi-jin - or sanyaku? Or will he drop to Juryo?

Please add a comment with as much prediction for Oho as you can. Comments are used for tie-breakers to decide yusho and jun-yusho winners.

Previous polls
2023
2022

[Gaijingai 1,565]

48-42 for the year. 

[Morty 1,484]

Now I've had a good look at him I think he's unlikely to rise much above the lower maegashira ranks. I'd be happy to be wrong - I still think he has the physical potential but I don't think he has the grunt needed to be a world beater

[Yarimotsu 552]

test and re-test again for the lad. still rising but no stable support, so any progress will be slow.

[just_some_guy 265]

I see a middle-Makuuchi year for him. Probably a cameo in the joi or S/K but won't stick.

[Kashunowaka 300]

He could have a breakout year, but from what we've seen so far it looks like his current limit is elevator rikishi. It's difficult to predict where the elevator stops a year from now, let's say M5. If he reaches the joi he should have ample opportunities to face ozeki and cause one or two upsets.

[WAKATAKE 2,648]

He will drop to J2E once but come right back. The M2 that he beats will be Hokutofuji

[Athenayama 1,009]

M9-M10 on January 2025. Ups and downs in the year, average level. Better record than 4 out 10 mentioned in question 3.

 

[Jejima 1,363]

My BOLD prediction....  This will be Oho's year! He's going all the way to Sekiwake for January 2025, defeating at least one Ozeki along the way. He's going to do the best of the 'short shikona' rikishi - i.e. I've ticked all bar the last box for Q3.

 

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

He will bounce between low- and mid-Maegashira the whole year. No demotion to Juryo though.

[Nantonoyama 248]

Mid-makuuchi, nothing stellar to expect

[Jejima 1,363]

18 voted for this poll.

We mostly think that he will start January 2025 ranked below the joi-jin - although four of us have predicted that he will be in the lower sanyaku!

Exactly half of us think that he will defeat at least one sanyaku opponent during 2024.

We think that Oho will have a better year (in terms of wins) than Endo, Akua and Yuma.

[Jejima 1,363]

Let's see..... 

1. Hmmmm..... (According to Sumo Reference) Oho will probably be ranked in the M3-M4 bracket which no one predicted. I suppose he could also end up in the M1-M2 bracket, but no one predicted that either. So closest (maybe even spot on? Although the last time it happened was in 1991) are those predicting the M5-M6 slot, namely Fashiriteta, Yarimotsu and Kashunowaka.

Edit: On the January 2025 banzuke, Oho is ranked at M3W.

2. On day 5 in March 2024, Oho won a kinbozan, having defeated Yokozuna Terunofuji. Nobody predicted that. Closest were the five players or predicted the defeat of an Ozeki, namely Kintamayama, Fashiriteta, Kashunowaka, Asapedroryu and Jejima.

3. In 2024, these are the total wins of the 'short shikona' rikishi. 

=1. Oho (47)
=1. Endo (47)
=1. Roga (47)
4. Shodai (43)
5. Meisei (42)
6. Abi (41)
7. Ura (39)
8. Ryuden (34)
9. Onosho (29)
10. Akua (26)
11. Yuma (22)
 

So, Oho had more wins than all EXCEPT Endo and Roga (who he tied with, but counts as a 'no' for this question). Jejima and Gaijingai did the best with 8 out of 10 correct. However I am going to say that Jejima did better, as the two that he got wrong were Endo and Roga, who Oho tied with. The next closest were furanohana and Sumo Spiffy with 6 out of 10 correct. Nobody else was over 50%.

It seems to me that the three in the running are Fashiriteta, Kashunowaka and Jejima, who all did well in 2 out of 3 questions. So let's see how they all did in their third 'bad' question. Based on that, I think we can rule Fashiriteta, as he did the very worse out of everyone for question 3, with just 1 out of 10 correct.

Kashunowaka's 5 out of 10 for question 3 is no better than random chance. Jejima's prediction of 'Sekiwake' for Q1 is also quite far off. But, I think it is between these two....  So, to the comments! 

Again close.....

Kashunowaka's comments are fairly spot on - but then so are Jejima's. I would say that Oho did do the best out of the 11 short-shikonaed rikishi. He did tie for the most wins in the year with Endo and Roga, but.... Endo got 12 of his wins fighting in Juryo, and Roga got 9 wins whilst in Juryo.

I am trying my hardest not to be biased, but I think Jejima's bold prediction of Oho being the best of 11 coming correct is the slightly bolder prediction coming true, so I will tentatively award the yusho to Jejima , with the jun-Yusho to @Kashunowaka . However if Oho is ranked at M5 in January 2025, we'll have a mono-ii and switch these two around.

@Fashiritētā is awarded the Fighting Spirit Prize.

Edited December 23, 2024 by Jejima

[just_some_guy 265]

On 30/11/2024 at 09:54, Jejima said:

On day 5 in March 2024, Oho won a kinbozan,