Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

[WAKATAKE 2,660]

Papa bear should stay out the rest of the basho

 

[Tochinofuji 385]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I would even go further and say that they're burning less at Miyagino than they would have at other heya, since Miyagino of all stables have deeper pockets to pay for treatment thanks to Hakuhō.

Speaking of which, how are the medical bills of rikishi paid for?

My assumption has always been that much of the medical expenses are covered by the public system, but I have zero basis for this assumption (my Canadian is showing it would seem!) and would be interesting to find out how anything not covered is sorted out. 

[Katooshu 3,251]

Hakuyozan has a compulsion for late, obviously unnecessary shoves. One of the only rikishi I actually dislike. 

Edited January 21, 2024 by Katooshu

[dingo 1,265]

9 hours ago, Benihana said:

I see the kensho and mochikyūkin as compensation for comments like that.

I would be happy to accept some kensho for my comments. 

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

Before settling into his stance to face off against Onosato, Endo had a total look of resignation that said: "I'm about to get blown off the dohyo, and there's not a thing I can do about it." 

Edited January 21, 2024 by Kaninoyama

[Chartorenji 237]

Big big fall from Hokutofuji. Could legit be multiple things (I thought concussion, but could also be some hip and leg stuff added on.) luckily they didn't have him walk back up to the dohyo. Glad their response is at leas somewhat improving

[Bunbukuchagama 732]

1 minute ago, Chartorenji said:

Big big fall from Hokutofuji. Could legit be multiple things (I thought concussion, but could also be some hip and leg stuff added on.) luckily they didn't have him walk back up to the dohyo. Glad their response is at leas somewhat improving

He was limping, right knee trouble?

[Chartorenji 237]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

He was limping, right knee trouble?

Just saw that. Hopefully it's nothing super bad. 

[Katooshu 3,251]

I think he injured his leg before falling off the dohyo.....the leg gives out and he grimaces as he's going down.

Edited January 21, 2024 by Katooshu

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

Yes, on the NHK broadcast he confirmed that his knee twisted inward before he fell. 

[Thorbjarn 215]

I always hate seeing Rikishi getting wheeled out, I hope it's nothing too serious. 

Tobizaru looked impressive against Kirishima and continues to absolutely overperform imo.

As is the norm atm, we have multiple Rikishi contending at the halfway point of the tournament. Asanoyama is severely underranked, I expect him to be moved up around day 11 should he stay at one loss. Onosato and Onosho probably the same, maybe a day or two later. Kotonowaka will face both Ozeki and Terunofuji anyway (and Daeisho tomorrow, who is only one win behind) , he did his homework against all lower rankers. All the remaining top guys are still in the race, so yeah, that's a pretty exciting week 2 with the possibility for a successful Yokozuna bid as an extra to an exciting Yusho race. 

 

[Hankegami 537]

Good nakabi, everyone! Sure, more for some, less for others. Anyway, here are my usual two cents.

It's Holy Sunday, and the soul of Kirishima looked like it left his body to contemplate the Glory of the God of Sumo and how on earth he managed to lose against Tobizaru. Or at least he looked like that while the cameras zoomed on him after his bout. Sure, Kirby had a slightly disadvantageous 9-10 record against the Monkey (now 9-11), but he also won their last two meetings (see here). Now he's in an awkward position, with two losses and one loss behind the 7-1 leading pack (Kotonowaka, Asanoyama, Onosho, Onosato). Worse than that, he cannot lose anymore if he wants to get his coveted white rope IMHO.

I know that I'm going to be redundant here, but let's recap the "rule of the thumb" for a Yokozuna promotion. On one hand, a back-to-back Yusho is a guaranteed promotion (on paper), but Kirishima just complicated his chances today. But at this point he'd better win this basho if he wants to be sure of his promotion, because a jun-yusho could be not enough. I discussed several times that since 2004 (Kaio's run) the YDC appeared to take a Y-JY formula only with a minimum of 26/30 wins. Kaio failed to get that many, same for Takakeisho in 2020 and 2023 (both gave a 25/30). Since then, there have been only three successful runs, Kakuryu (14-1D, 14-1Y), Kisenosato (12-3J, 14-1Y), and Terunofuji (12-3Y, 14-1D). Another issue, however, is that every successful run also presented a 14-1 showing, which could be problematic for Kirishima. In fact, there's also a 26/30 Y-JY run which didn't result in a promotion, that is Hakuho's 2006 very first two basho as an Ozeki (13-2Y, 13-2J). That was a highly controversial refusal, however, especially since Rijicho Kitanoumi publicly said that 13 wins should have sufficed (which also backs the validity of a general 26/30 rule). Now, let's get back to Kirishima. He just busted a potential 14-1, and he's now right into "Hakuho territory" of a possible rejection with a 13-2Y, 13-2J (and we still have 7 days to go). One more loss, and he's full into Kaio-Takaeisho territory. A last thing to notice is that both Kisenosato and Terunofuji came from a period of strong showings before getting there, with in the opinion of many here also contributed to their promotion. Kakuryu didn't, but he also gave a strong 28/30 post and he basically forced his own promotion by sheer numbers. On the other hand, Hakuho was a 21 y.o. newly promoted Ozeki, which most likely brought the YDC to reject his candidacy. Kirishima is somewhat in the middle. He comes from a strong 2023, but nowhere as strong as Kinenosato's 2016 nor Terunofuji's 2021. He's also a recently appointed Ozeki. In short, there is room for his case to be rejected, and he can only post a back-to-back to avoid that with certainty. 

Back to the rest of Day 8, I didn't expect Asanoyama's loss against Tamawashi, especially after a 5-0 strike in his favor by the records (here). The Grand Old Man of Sumo is as dangerous as ever, and also showed that Asanoyama might not be the unstoppable truck he has been against the middle Maegashira ranks he has faced up until today. Same indirectly goes for fellow 7-1 leaders Onosho (M14w) and Onosato (M15w). Tomorrow at least one will drop down to second place thanks to Onosho vs. Asanoyama (2-9 record). The only san'yaku guy in the leading pack, Kotonowaka, got a cozy freebie by absence of injured Takayasu and went up to 7-1 without a sweat. But he could sweat a lot tomorrow as he's paired against 6-2 runner-up guy Daieisho for a Sekiwake battle (very challenging 7-5 record). On a last note, Terunofuji managed to keep his 6-2 runner-up spot against Ryuden, but looked unconvincing to me. However, he's still in for another day, and tomorrow he will face a possibly problematic Nishikigi (3-2 record). The latter won their last match-up (Nagoya 2023, Teru retired with a 1-3-11), but before that Teru gave him a 3-0 sweep. In short, he will be yet another test to see how much the Yokozuna is fit.

Nothing much else to say. There's a group of battered veterans in red demotion zone in the lower banzuke (0-7-8 Aoiyama, 1-7 Tomokaze, 1-7 Endo, 2-6 Myogiryu). Barring surprises, the guys in upper Juryo are going to have quite a few promotion spots available after this basho.

[RabidJohn 1,795]

Asanoyama, finally getting into yotsu against Tamawashi: "I have you now."
Tamawashi, brings out his new secret weapon: "Surprise!"
That bout was an absolute delight.

I'm with Hankegami. As much as I like Kirishima, that loss to Tobizaru was very costly in terms of his rope run. There are still 7 days to go and he can't afford another loss. That's a very tall order. The best I'm hoping for now is maybe a decent jun-yusho to keep the run going to March. A Y-J-Y run ought to be good enough.

Horrible to see Hokutofuji getting wheeled out. That was a bloody awful fall. I thought at first he'd injured his back, but in the replay you could see the 'agony face' before he started falling.

[Seiyashi 4,098]

The fans certainly got their money's worth today. Tamawashi - Asanoyama and Terunofuji - Ryūden were both very good bouts, and Daieishō's escape against Midorifuji wasn't that much worse.

Not sure I've ever seen a cinch quite like the ending of Terunofuji - Ryūden.

[lackmaker 437]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm with Hankegami. As much as I like Kirishima, that loss to Tobizaru was very costly in terms of his rope run. There are still 7 days to go and he can't afford another loss.

Really, does anyone else think a 12-3 yusho doesn't get the promotion?

[kedevash 43]

An extremely interesting basho. The race for Yusho is wide open! I don't see Terunofuji winning. I just hope he finishes with an honorable score. Hoshoryu with his injury will also have difficulty winning the cup. For me the serious contenders are Kirishima who with his motivation to become Yokozuna will be hard to beat, but Kotonowaka, Asanoyama and Onosato all three seem very solid. Daieisho is also in the race.

I hope Hokuseiho's injury isn't too serious. Above all, I think that this will be beneficial for his career in the sense that he may have to change his style and evolve in his sumo. At his age I think he will recover completely and will have the opportunity for a new start because he seemed to have hit a wall recently.

Atamifuji started the basho badly but he recovered well by fighting opponents more within his reach. He shows great mental strength after his defeats at the start of the basho. Takayasu seems truly cursed. Anyway.... Midorifuji is really awesome! What energy! What technique. Really great to watch. Gonoyama encounters difficulties against the top rikishi. ! They were able to study his sumo and find solutions to his powerful charges. To finish Aiyama is gone I think. Myogiryu and Takarafuji seem near the end...

[ryafuji 815]

Terunofuji very unconvincing. I hope it's just ring-rustiness and that he does have at least one more yusho in him, but it's not looking like it will be this tournament on that evidence.

[Hankegami 537]

16 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Really, does anyone else think a 12-3 yusho doesn't get the promotion?

About my post, I was talking about a jun-yusho exclusively. Of course, a 12-3Y would do the spell (25/30 as back-to-back always resulted in a promotion). The issue is whether the Yusho line will fall as low as 12-3. Terunofuji is not in shape to fend out the most spirited rikishi (otherwise he would take the Yusho himself), and the leading pack include 7-1 Kotonowaka (a belligerent Sekiwake with a shot at Ozeki) and Asanoyama (a former Ozeki). We also have to keep an eye on the whole 6-2 bunch aside from Terunofuji and Kirishima, that is Hoshoryu and Daieisho. I highly doubt that anyone up there is going to be easy on Kirishima so that he can get the rope.

Now, there will be sure a bit of trimming in the arasoi as the tournament goes on. Already tomorrow we are going to get Kotonowaka (7-1) vs. Daieisho (6-2), but also Onosho (7-1) vs. Asanoyama (7-1). Other Darwinian matches will certainly follow as the tournament approaches its end. But Kirishima is still in the chasing pack and has very little room for errors. He surely needs to 1) defeat the leaders, and 2) remain undefeated. If he drops another one, he's going to require someone else to do the dirty job for him and make his competitors to bite the dust and force a playoff. And I'm damn sure that Kirishima himself is perfectly aware of that, at least by judging by the lost expression that he showed to the cameras after his bout against Tobizaru today. Going down a 12-3 path is extremely risky at this point (especially by considering that a 12-3JY would mean rejection).

[Akinomaki 40,622]

8 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Interesting that the former Yokozuna identifies many of the traditional methods of training as problematic: i.e. having younger, less physically developed rikishi start out doing regular keiko sparring instead of focusing on building their bodies up and learning fundamentals first; emphasis on number of training bouts over any other aspect training, so that rikishi feel compelled to overtrain; and the fallacy of "healing injuries suffered on the dohyo on the dohyo." 

That's my point, Miyagino is "old-school", reveres Taiho - his methods are outdated and burn up his rikishi - but at least they burn bright at his heya, at Naruto they simply combust. Both Hakuho and Kisenosato were trained as professionals from early age on and brought up by excellent coaches. Kisenosato rather more strict and with old school methods, Hakuho more considerate, bringing out his full potential. Hakuho as Mongolian of earlier stages was still like the hungry Japanese of old from remote areas, like Taiho, and the old ways were appropriate for him. The wrecked or spoiled bunch that joins now rather needs the methods of Nishonoseki for sustainable development.

Hakuho always emphasizes "going for your dream", he fires up his men with his example - mind over matter works, the shin over the tai - but only for a while if not backed up by reasonable use of the matter body. His obsession with records also contributes to what I call burning up.

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I would even go further and say that they're burning less at Miyagino than they would have at other heya, since Miyagino of all stables have deeper pockets to pay for treatment thanks to Hakuhō.

Speaking of which, how are the medical bills of rikishi paid for?

The NSK pays for everything - that's why it's reasonable to stay on injured even in lower ranks or banzuke-gai.

I always complain that Hakuho has failed to convey the secret of his longevity on the dohyo to his (uchi-)deshi. He still treats them as if they had his rather unlimited potential.

[Koorifuu 1,003]

What a harite clinic by Oshoma and Tohakuryu. We could barely hear anything other than slapping noises coming from the dohyo - couldn't have been two nicer guys, too.

Edited January 21, 2024 by Koorifuu

[Koorifuu 1,003]

Side note. I suspect Endo might go intai rather than back to juryo. He doesn't strike me as a guy who's still got the fire to fight back from adversity.

[Hakuryuho 335]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

Side note. I suspect Endo might go intai rather than back to juryo. He doesn't strike me as a guy who's still got the fire to fight back from adversity.

You think so? He strikes me as a guy just fighting for the paycheck and nothing more, so I'd figure he retires once he drops to makushita for the first time

[Yamanashi 3,866]

2 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Side note. I suspect Endo might go intai rather than back to juryo. He doesn't strike me as a guy who's still got the fire to fight back from adversity.

He has been declining over the last two years.  If the db is correct, he has a kabu waiting (Kitajin).  The earthquake situation must be hard on him, too.

[Asashosakari 19,427]

1 hour ago, Hakuryuho said:

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Side note. I suspect Endo might go intai rather than back to juryo. He doesn't strike me as a guy who's still got the fire to fight back from adversity.

You think so? He strikes me as a guy just fighting for the paycheck and nothing more, so I'd figure he retires once he drops to makushita for the first time

I'm with Koorifuu, I think. Endo has that "ready to move on" look to me, too, and with a kabu lined up it feels like he's more in the Goeido/Okinoumi mold as guys who didn't drag things out beyond/below their long-time standard of competition.

Edited January 21, 2024 by Asashosakari

[dingo 1,265]

The usually so calm Sadanoumi got quite agitated by Ichiyamamoto's fierce tsuppari and responded in kind. Unexpected to see Sadanoumi so fired up but it seemed to work well for him.

Continuing with the unexpected, his about Tamawashi's victory against Asanoyama, and with even a throw! He managed to successfully hold off Asanoyama from his belt for a while, and didn't stop moving even after the belt grab. I hope Asanoyama didn't get hurt so much that it would endanger his performance this basho. 

Mitakeumi nonexistent today against Kinbozan. What a contrast with his sumo yesterday. 

Shodai back to his normal modus operandi. His tachiai was even worse today than usually. Not sure how he thought simply standing up would be a good idea against Abi, unless he was expecting a henka. 

Great tachiai and heroic effort by Midorifuji, and he came so close but Daieisho still got the better of him in the end. 

I feel for Hokutofuji, didn't exactly see how he got hurt but looked very serious. 

Tobizaru! Continued what he couldn't finish off with Terunofuji, but with a successful end this time. Kirishima really didn't need this loss.