Hatsu 2024 discussion (results)

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 23/01/2024 at 16:37, Sumo Spiffy said:

Seiyashi will pick this up in the next day or two, but

I'm kyūjō this basho, as I don't have access to computers or the time to do the PDY thread. Fast comments like these are all I can manage. 

[Reonito 1,523]

  On 24/01/2024 at 00:29, Seiyashi said:

I'm kyūjō this basho, as I don't have access to computers or the time to do the PDY thread. Fast comments like these are all I can manage. 

We should at least open the thread. I run a spreadsheet to keep track of the possibilities, but my formatting skills are nonexistent...

[Bunbukuchagama 772]

  On 24/01/2024 at 00:52, Reonito said:

my formatting skills are nonexistent...

Same problem here. 

[Reonito 1,523]

 

[Morty 1,505]

  On 23/01/2024 at 15:43, yorikiried by fate said:

I haven't watched a whole lot in recent years, but this time around, I haven't missed a single day. That out of the way, I have a completely different impression of Kotonowaka. For me, he projects an air of inevitability, which is kinda backed up by his performance so far. This is not how I remember Kisenosato. The latter, instead, projected "could/should/would be" and a bunch of unnecessary drama – admittedly partly media made.

(Non-sarcastic) Question to the Kise fans of old: Did you ever feel safe?

I said an awful lot of uncomplimentary things on this forum about Kise's lack of mental stability when in contention to win a yusho, so, no, I never felt safe.... . At one point I essentially convinced myself he would never get the rope, and was hugely pleasantly surprised when he did. But I also argued for years that his record displayed that he was doing Yokozuna sumo, and if he could somehow get access to a sports psychologist he'd be able to make that next step.

I don't see that in Kotonowaka. Instead my comparison is about their look on the dohyo, their excellent defensive sumo, and that nearly half their wins come from Yorikiri or Oshidashi (45% for Kise vs 47% for Kotonowaka). They both do (or did) dominant forward moving sumo where they tend to control their opponent. Kotonowaka's upward trajectory has been a lot faster than Kise's, who tended to get to a level and plateau there for a while, before working out how to take the next step. He was 16 when he joined sumo and it took him only 13 basho to make the salaried ranks. He was 20 when he first made Komosubi but then yo-yo-ed in lower Sanyaku for ages and it took him another four years before he made anything resembling an Ozeki run. He was 26 when he finally made Ozeki, and 31 when he made Yokozuna. So each step took a while, but as someone else noted he did have Hakuho in his way, and Harumafuji probably didn't help either. Only three rikishi beat Hakuho more than ten times and they were Asashoryu (12), Kise (16), and Harumafuji (21).

By comparison Kotonowaka was 18 when he joined sumo, and it took him 18 basho to make the salaried ranks. He was 25 when he made Sanyaku but was getting numbers to think about Ozeki within a couple of basho, and is making his first serious run at Ozeki now, just over a year later. His head to head record against other rikishi suggests that once he works out how to beat someone, he then tends to win against them more than he loses. He doesn't have the GOAT and HF in his way though. Interestingly, he is yet to beat Terunofuji and his record against Kirishima isn't great, so he needs to overcome that if he wants to get to Ozeki in this basho.

I don't know if these statistics tell you anything, and I didn't mean to make a deep dive on their respective records, just got carried away. Regardless I reckon Kotonowaka makes Ozeki faster than Kise did, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't eventually get the rope.

[Katooshu 3,335]

Aonishiki easily beats makushita veteran Higonoumi (former Inoue, returning from injury) to move to 6-0 in the jonidan yusho race. Tougher opposition ahead but impressed by his composure so far - it's well beyond his experience. That said, I'm still cheering for plucky Shikihide underdog Mogamizakura to take the jonidan title this time!

And hair pull or not, Tanji is very impressive for 17. A real standout for me.

Edited January 24, 2024 by Katooshu

[Katooshu 3,335]

I think Hosh will school Onosato tonight (all wrong for the rookie), but stylistically I'm very interested in Terunofuji-Onosato. Bigger guys with explosiveness moving forward are more difficult to effectively apply the brute force over technique approach Teru often uses....could get very interesting if Ono gets the double inside and Teru resorts to the clamps. 

Edited January 24, 2024 by Katooshu

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

  On 24/01/2024 at 02:49, Katooshu said:

And hair pull or not, Tanji is very impressive for 17. A real standout for me.

Agreed, with normal luck he is going to improve a lot. And was his fifth makushita opponent in six days.

[Hakuryuho 335]

  On 24/01/2024 at 06:38, Katooshu said:

I think Hosh will school Onosato tonight (all wrong for the rookie)

Poor Onosato, getting pushed out of the ring yesterday, thrown out like a rubbish bag today... 

At least he can learn from these humbling experiences and take the next step, but I for one am glad the upper san'yaku boys are performing the way they are :) 

[Yokozuna Hattorizakura 153]

I'm really getting annoyed with their bizarre scheduling decisions lately. They're going to cost Onosato and Onosho rightly deserved sanshos despite being outside shots at the yusho at best and falling. They cost Tsurugisho a sansho the exact same way last year.

Why are they not putting them against Takanosho and Tamawashi? Why is Terunofuji going to miss Daiesho?

Shonannoumi is quietly having a horrible basho. wonder what's wrong with him?

Looks like we're not going to be having any shin sekitori this time. seems like it's been a while since that happened.

 

[Hankegami 537]

  On 24/01/2024 at 10:45, Yokozuna Hattorizakura said:

I'm really getting annoyed with their bizarre scheduling decisions lately. They're going to cost Onosato and Onosho rightly deserved sanshos despite being outside shots at the yusho at best and falling. They cost Tsurugisho a sansho the exact same way last year.

I believe they are trying to avoid another Tokushoryu Yusho style upset. Incidentally, a video interview to Tokushoryu by Nihonoseki-oyakata (good 'ole Kisenosato) was uploaded just yesterday on YouTube (here) and of course it focused on his "Cinderella Yusho" but also on his easy schedule (14-1, only joy to face co-leader Shodai and big boy Takakeisho). It didn't help that Tokushoryu was heavily mauled by the joy in the next tournament at M2w (4-11, although he got a kinboshi in the process, courtesy from Kakuryu). By contrast, more recent Yusho upset candidates have been put against the joy as early as they got 8 wins and secured their KK.

Edited January 24, 2024 by Hankegami

[RabidJohn 1,855]

  On 24/01/2024 at 10:45, Yokozuna Hattorizakura said:

I'm really getting annoyed with their bizarre scheduling decisions lately. They're going to cost Onosato and Onosho rightly deserved sanshos despite being outside shots at the yusho at best and falling. They cost Tsurugisho a sansho the exact same way last year.

"If you want a shot at the yusho, you have to face the top ranks" seems like a quite reasonable unwritten rule to me.

Onosato may still be able to get 10 wins for the 'traditional' shinnyumaku kanto-sho.

---

Just before the Atamifuji-Shodai bout there was a panning shot across the crowd to show the banners, and someone was waving a pair of what looked like white radishes.

That's a new one on me: what's the significance?

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 24/01/2024 at 11:52, RabidJohn said:

"If you want a shot at the yusho, you have to face the top ranks" seems like a quite reasonable unwritten rule to me.

Onosato may still be able to get 10 wins for the 'traditional' shinnyumaku kanto-sho.

---

Just before the Atamifuji-Shodai bout there was a panning shot across the crowd to show the banners, and someone was waving a pair of what looked like white radishes.

That's a new one on me: what's the significance?

Shōdai's alma mater has a radish dance. 

[RabidJohn 1,855]

  On 24/01/2024 at 11:56, Seiyashi said:

Shōdai's alma mater has a radish dance. 

Thanks. As with many things Japanese, that explains everything and nothing simultaneously.

[Akinomaki 40,809]

  On 24/01/2024 at 12:04, RabidJohn said:

Thanks. As with many things Japanese, that explains everything and nothing simultaneously.

no English page for the Aoyama hotori Tonodai daikon dance yet

  On 23/10/2022 at 09:25, Akinomaki said:

  On 03/10/2016 at 10:01, Akinomaki said:

the Tonodai special, the daikon dance, with Oyanagi and Shodai 

Yutakayama again in the daikon dance, the above was at the wedding of now Tokitsukaze

o

[BroadMeadow 43]

It is surprising to see two of the O-boys still fighting at the top when neither are realistically in yusho-contention. It would be nice if the next banzuke would match the in-tournament reality though. If you have an M14 and M15 spending the last third of the basho fighting sanyaku their rank next basho should represent that. From the looks of things right now, there is going to be PLENTY of room for them in the M1-M5 range. 

[Miyam 7]

  On 23/01/2024 at 17:50, Bunbukuchagama said:

Don't forget Shonannoumi, he is not safe yet. The same goes for Shimazuumi and Takarafuji. Even Churanoumi or Tsurugisho can be demoted if they lose out (which is very unlikely, of course).

What is up with Shonannoumi? Is there an injury I don't know about?

[Koorifuu 1,020]

The way Atamifuji out-Shodai'd Shodai was quite impressive.

[dingo 1,294]

Tobizaru vs Midorifuji was as exciting as ever. Even faced against Tobizaru who is not exactly large, it is clear that Midorifuji is at a distinct weight disadvantage and in the end that counted in today's bout as well.

Shodai did really well but managed to waste at least two excellent chances to put Atamifuji away. High rank notwithstanding, Atamifuji is clearly not quite at his best this basho, but maintains his good ring sense and mobility for such a heavy rikishi. That paid off today.

Seems like Ura doesn't have a good plan against Abi. Maybe he should try a henka? I'm sure Abi wouldn't mind...

Oho put up more resistance than I thought against Kotonowaka, and perhaps more than Kotonowaka himself also expected. However, one split second of unbalance aside where there was a slight pulldown opportunity which Oho tried but missed, Kotonowaka was in full control. He's done well so far, but the really difficult part starts now.

As I expected, Daieisho didn't give much trouble to Kirishima. He's running out of steam in the second half of the basho and has to make an effort to stay in sanyaku. Kirishima on the other hand seems to move full steam ahead. 

Onosato got some valuable ozeki match experience. It was too much to expect him to win against Hoshoryuu, but it was closer than I thought it would be. Still, getting an ozeki match in his first makuuchi basho is a pretty good achievement for Onosato. Perhaps a sansho beckons as well. 

Now that was some real yokozuna sumo by Terunofuji. Tachiai, arm grab, belt grip, quick shift, and Onosho was out before he could even say his own shikona. Terunofuji seems set on fulfilling his duty as yokozuna to fight for the yusho. 

[Tochinofuji 387]

  On 17/01/2024 at 14:49, Tochinofuji said:

... 

For me, I have to say that Terunofuji's textbook arm drag to dominant throw takes the cake for me. That was a thing of beauty. 

And a second beautiful arm drag by Terunofuji! While I am a big Onosho fan, that was stellar. I guess I may need to go back to rewatch some Terunofuji matches as I don't recall him relying on the technique so much. Anyone know if this is a more recent addition to his arsenal? 

[Koorifuu 1,020]

Aaand in the meantime, Sumoforum favourite Hakuyozan sits at 7 consecutive wins!

[dingo 1,294]

  On 24/01/2024 at 16:15, Koorifuu said:

The way Atamifuji out-Shodai'd Shodai was quite impressive.

You could say the roles were reversed for this bout. 

[junsan 196]

Hosh was incredibly impressive with that lightening fast shitatenage of bulldozing Onosato.

[Jakusotsu 6,050]

  On 24/01/2024 at 16:48, junsan said:

Hosh was incredibly impressive with that lightening fast shitatenage of bulldozing Onosato.

This being the third time I had to read that recently: people, mercy, please!

Hak & Kak was bad enough, but easier to stomach than "Hosh" which is wrong on too many levels!

[Bunbukuchagama 772]

  On 24/01/2024 at 11:11, Hankegami said:

I believe they are trying to avoid another Tokushoryu Yusho style upset.

Somehow, they were not so concerned last basho when they let IYM get 11 wins with a single sanyaku opponent.