How to handle injured rikishi (split from Hatsu 2024 discussion)

[kedevash 43]

Unfortunately I think Hokutofuji blew out his knee. ACL maybe. This would mean several months of absence if he takes care of himself correctly....

I take this opportunity to give my opinion on the NSK's injury management which is terrible. How many rikishi have had their careers shattered by having to continue fighting injured. We must give them time to recover from their injury! On the contrary, some who took the time to heal came back stronger. Terunofuji, Tochinoshin, Ura... Recovery time without loss of ranking really needs to be reinstated. Less jungyo would also be beneficial. Otherwise the rikishi never stop!! But the rearguard management of the NSK will surely do nothing as usual...

Edited January 21, 2024 by kedevash

[Godango 996]

53 minutes ago, kedevash said:

Recovery time without loss of ranking really needs to be reinstated. 

I have mixed feelings on this specific point. On one hand, losing rank due to injury is unfortunate, but on the other, not being forced immediately into top flight competition when you return from significant time off is likely beneficial. 

My local popular professional sport is rugby league, and it's common for players at the highest level to still return in the reserve grade/development league for their first game/s back from prolonged I jury absence. Gets match fitness up without being straight into the fire and risking reinjury, etc. Anyway my two cents. 

Back to this basho, Hokutofuji'd reaction to his injury had me devastated. Hopefully it's less serious than it seems and he's back in fighting shape in a Basho or two. 

[kedevash 43]

15 minutes ago, Godango said:

My local popular professional sport is rugby league, and it's common for players at the highest level to still return in the reserve grade/development league for their first game/s back from prolonged I jury absence. Gets match fitness up without being straight into the fire and risking reinjury, etc. Anyway my two cents. 

I get what you're saying. But they can also take a basho out without losing rank and just train at the heya to get back to rythm. At the moment the vaste majority of rikishi come back too early from injury. All due to the lost of ranks.

[Suwihuto 125]

29 minutes ago, Godango said:

My local popular professional sport is rugby league, and it's common for players at the highest level to still return in the reserve grade/development league for their first game/s back from prolonged I jury absence. Gets match fitness up without being straight into the fire and risking reinjury, etc. Anyway my two cents.

Yep, although it's obviously different in a team sport, I've seen too often key players being drafted in for big games a little too early and either getting injured again or simply not being good enough.

[Jakusotsu 5,982]

2 hours ago, kedevash said:

At the moment the vaste majority of rikishi come back too early from injury. All due to the lost of ranks. 

But on the other hand a banzuke cluttered by phantoms won't be pretty either.

The only solution is to clone Tamawashi.

[Seiyashi 4,098]

6 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

But on the other hand a banzuke cluttered by phantoms won't be pretty either.

In support of this - the best example is all the COVID kyūjo in the past couple of years. The banzuke turned into a farce pretty quickly when half the division was absent in the closing days of one Nagoya(?).

Also, the dispassionate view is this - if you get injured, your skill necessarily takes some hit. If it takes a strong enough hit that you don't regain your former position, you really shouldn't be cluttering up the banzuke at a spot your skill no longer justifies. And if it doesn't take that hit, then getting back up shouldn't be a problem (albeit losing some time). 

You could even argue that the disproportionate bump that zenshō get in the lower divisions helps. If you are brought way below your skill, crushing your way back to the paid ranks is a matter of four-five basho, tops.

The problem isn't necessarily the NSK's systemic design, but maybe the Japanese mindset of giving your all regardless of the cost to yourself - i.e. gaman and gambarising. 

The NSK's ringside protocol for injury, on the other hand, definitely needs improving, but it's leaps and bounds better compared to what we previously had. So it's getting there.

Edited January 21, 2024 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,470]

7 hours ago, Godango said:

I have mixed feelings on this specific point. On one hand, losing rank due to injury is unfortunate, but on the other, not being forced immediately into top flight competition when you return from significant time off is likely beneficial. 

My local popular professional sport is rugby league, and it's common for players at the highest level to still return in the reserve grade/development league for their first game/s back from prolonged I jury absence. Gets match fitness up without being straight into the fire and risking reinjury, etc. Anyway my two cents. 

This is totally sensible, but there could be a middle ground between being thrown right back into the deep end of the pool and free-falling through the lower divisions for however long proper treatment and rehab take, followed by at least as long a climb back.

[Vulch 3]

24 minutes ago, Reonito said:

could be a middle ground between being thrown right back into the deep end of the pool and free-falling through the lower divisions

Maybe something like one tournament without loss of rank, then treated as a 5-10 or 2 -5 score subsequently rather than the 0-15 and 0-7 used currently?

[Asashosakari 19,427]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

This is totally sensible, but there could be a middle ground between being thrown right back into the deep end of the pool and free-falling through the lower divisions for however long proper treatment and rehab take, followed by at least as long a climb back.

The problem is that generally injured rikishi appear to have a much bigger issue with accepting the drop from juryo to makushita than the subsequent drop from makushita to jonidan or wherever. I frequently ponder the question "Wouldn't it be better if injured sekitori couldn't fall further than Ms15, or Ms60, or [insert other rank suggestion here]", but I'm honestly not sure if something like that would significantly alter their decision-making. If you made the drop-stop rank J14, it obviously would, but that idea is a non-starter for any number of reasons.

Edit: This is generally the point at which I bring out my hobby horse and mention my long-held belief that ozumo could really use a "semi-sekitori" division between juryo and makushita.

Edited January 21, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Taliesin 68]

59 minutes ago, Vulch said:

Maybe something like one tournament without loss of rank, then treated as a 5-10 or 2 -5 score subsequently rather than the 0-15 and 0-7 used currently?

I thought maybe the opposite. Still normal 0-15 demotions starting from the first basho off, but to limit the fall to something like 2 divisions down from the rank where the fall started - for those who needs very long rehabs. Rank protection for salaried ranks makes zero sense - people would go for infinite kyujo instead of retiring. Of course nothing like any of these suggestions will be adopted by the NSK.

[Reonito 1,470]

11 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

The problem is that generally injured rikishi appear to have a much bigger issue with accepting the drop from juryo to makushita than the subsequent drop from makushita to jonidan or wherever. I frequently ponder the question "Wouldn't it be better if injured sekitori couldn't fall further than Ms15, or Ms60, or [insert other rank suggestion here]", but I'm honestly not sure if something like that would significantly alter their decision-making. If you made the drop-stop rank J14, it obviously would, but that idea is a non-starter for any number of reasons.

Edit: This is generally the point at which I bring out my hobby horse and mention my long-held belief that ozumo could really use a "semi-sekitori" division between juryo and makushita.

And that extra division could be flexible in size, to accommodate the injured absentees without costing anyone slots.

[Seiyashi 4,098]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Edit: This is generally the point at which I bring out my hobby horse and mention my long-held belief that ozumo could really use a "semi-sekitori" division between juryo and makushita.

And that extra division could be flexible in size, to accommodate the injured absentees without costing anyone slots.

I don't think the answer is in such a division, but maybe in expedited return to the salaried ranks. For ex sekitori who have fallen to makushita and below due to injury, any KK is treated as though they had got that score twice in a row. So you would take only 1 basho to return to jūryō from outside Ms15 with a zenshō, for instance. This would stop once you repromote to jūryō.

The trick is in deciding who is eligible, to avoid people gaming the system. Kosho's requirement that it be an in ring injury is too harsh IMO, but everyone is carrying so many injuries that you could almost always find something otherwise. 

Edited January 21, 2024 by Seiyashi

[Asashosakari 19,427]

16 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't think the answer is in such a division, but maybe in expedited return to the salaried ranks. For ex sekitori who have fallen to makushita and below due to injury, any KK is treated as though they had got that score twice in a row. So you would take only 1 basho to return to jūryō from outside Ms15 with a zenshō, for instance. This would stop once you repromote to jūryō.

That might be the least realistic solution I've ever seen proposed, I'm afraid.

[Seiyashi 4,098]

2 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

That might be the least realistic solution I've ever seen proposed, I'm afraid.

Because of deciding who qualifies for this?

[Asashosakari 19,427]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Because of deciding who qualifies for this?

No, because it requires breaking fundamental banzuke-making principles by switching the order of same-score rikishi.

[Ripe 71]

35 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't think the answer is in such a division, but maybe in expedited return to the salaried ranks. For ex sekitori who have fallen to makushita and below due to injury, any KK is treated as though they had got that score twice in a row. So you would take only 1 basho to return to jūryō from outside Ms15 with a zenshō, for instance. This would stop once you repromote to jūryō.

The trick is in deciding who is eligible, to avoid people gaming the system. Kosho's requirement that it be an in ring injury is too harsh IMO, but everyone is carrying so many injuries that you could almost always find something otherwise. 

Could the solution be a protected ranking similar to what is used in tennis? Say, after missing three basho rikishi apply to have a protected ranking from NSK and then it's up to them to either approve it or not... and if they approve it, the first basho rikishi return is either same as in the basho injury happened or an average between rank in that basho and next. Or something along those lines.

That would not be helpful for someone that get "minor injury" requiring few weeks of healing but it would help someone like Wakatakakage (or Terunofuji few years back) who needed surgery and was out for long time.

[Reonito 1,470]

8 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Could the solution be a protected ranking similar to what is used in tennis? Say, after missing three basho rikishi apply to have a protected ranking from NSK and then it's up to them to either approve it or not... and if they approve it, the first basho rikishi return is either same as in the basho injury happened or an average between rank in that basho and next. Or something along those lines.

That would not be helpful for someone that get "minor injury" requiring few weeks of healing but it would help someone like Wakatakakage (or Terunofuji few years back) who needed surgery and was out for long time.

The issue with such solutions is where to put them on the banzuke, and whose spot do they take. Let's say they're to be placed at J10, but all 28 spots in Juryo are accounted for. Do you snub someone who'd otherwise be promoted from Makushita? Have Juryo go to 29 for one basho and then hope it sorts itself out? And judging by the kosho system, there'd likely be multiple sekitori you'd have to accommodate in any given basho...

[Yamanashi 3,866]

I may have missed it, but I don't think anybody is touting the old kosho system ...

[Asashosakari 19,427]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

1 hour ago, Ripe said:

Could the solution be a protected ranking similar to what is used in tennis? Say, after missing three basho rikishi apply to have a protected ranking from NSK and then it's up to them to either approve it or not... and if they approve it, the first basho rikishi return is either same as in the basho injury happened or an average between rank in that basho and next. Or something along those lines.

The issue with such solutions is where to put them on the banzuke, and whose spot do they take. Let's say they're to be placed at J10, but all 28 spots in Juryo are accounted for. Do you snub someone who'd otherwise be promoted from Makushita? Have Juryo go to 29 for one basho and then hope it sorts itself out? And judging by the kosho system, there'd likely be multiple sekitori you'd have to accommodate in any given basho...

Taking the analogy literally, a system as in tennis is virtually impossible to do in sumo, because it technically doesn't protect a player's ranking position, it just protects their ability to enter tournaments and by extension their ability to score ranking points. Top 20 player Casey Smith - feel free to decide if they're on the ATP or the WTA tour with that name - ruptures their ACL and is off the tour for eight months. Their decline down the ranks starts out slow, then steeply accelerates when more and more results drop off their ranking tally, as each disappearing score constitutes an increasing share of what was still left. (That part isn't so different to sumo, even if the ranking mechanics are different.) Upon their return they're ranked somewhere in the 300s.

And they're really ranked in the 300s. Tennis doesn't have one comprehensive tournament structure that accommodates everyone, just loads of small-field events that run concurrently, so Casey would now have to enter low-grade tournaments appropriate for 300-ranked players. Instead, they're given a virtual ranking equal to some position from early on during their rankings decline, let's say position 50, and they get to enter higher-grade tournaments that are appropriate to that rank and, most importantly, which offer a lot more ranking points. That allows Casey to potentially earn loads more points than a typical 300-ranked player can, and move back up the rankings swiftly. (Ironically, this sounds very much like what Seiyashi just proposed.) But here's the kicker: The overall ranking mechanics don't change at all. Casey gets scored exactly the same way as all other players in the tournaments that Casey plays, and one ranking point carries exactly the same value for Casey as it does for everybody else in the 300's.

So, to transpose that to sumo: Sure, it's possible to say, "Terunofuji might be at jonidan 48w now, but we're going to treat him as juryo 10w equivalent and give him an appropriate tournament schedule for that rank". And he goes and posts a 6-9 record in his comeback basho. But then what? For Casey there's an exact points value that is attached to each tournament performance, and that just gets added to the ranking points tally. Maybe the new points total after the first tournament back means they're now ranked 220. But how do you decide where to move Terunofuji from Jd48w based on the 6 wins he got against juryo-level opponents? There's no way to put that result into any sort of useful context with his actual jonidan ranking position. The only context in which those 6 wins have meaning is the virtual rank at which they were achieved.

So yeah, that doesn't work. Sumo just isn't set up to handle entry ranks that are distinct from real ranks. And with that we're just back to the eternal question, "Should an injured rikishi's fall down the banzuke simply stop at some pre-determined point?" It doesn't make much sense to let Terunofuji fall to jonidan, then compete as juryo-equivalent for a single basho, and simply re-rank him straight into juryo afterwards. If that's how we want to get injured rikishi back on the dohyo, they shouldn't be falling beyond their eventual rank of return at all, either being held there or taken off the banzuke altogether until they return. The potential issues with those approaches have been well-enumerated over the years here and elsewhere.

Edited January 22, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,088]

If there were more of a sense that one's performance in the most recent basho is the main factor in how one is ranked on the next banzuke, then it wouldn't be all that bad to have someone ranked in Jonidan compete in Juryo and have that J10e 6-9 lead to a J13 ranking next basho.  But it's very clear that where one is ranked is just as important as how one does.  That would need to be what would change, and that's somewhat unlikely to happen as it would require a bunch more work than just looking at a rikishi's rank and record, but instead take into account the ranks of the rikishi he actually faced.  If we're going to do that, we might as well have a system where all rikishi are virtually re-ranked every bout and given an opponent for their next match based on their new virtual rank, instead of sticking with pairing them as though they have the same rank all tournament.  Depending on how it's handled, this by itself might lead to ex-sekitori (and new hotshots) being able to rocket up the ranks from the bottom much faster.

[Sumo Spiffy 568]

21 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

So yeah, that doesn't work. Sumo just isn't set up to handle entry ranks that are distinct from real ranks. And with that we're just back to the eternal question, "Should an injured rikishi's fall down the banzuke simply stop at some pre-determined point?" It doesn't make much sense to let Terunofuji fall to jonidan, then compete as juryo-equivalent for a single basho, and simply re-rank him straight into juryo afterwards. If that's how we want to get injured rikishi back on the dohyo, they shouldn't be falling beyond their eventual rank of return at all, either being held there or taken off the banzuke altogether until they return. The potential issues with those approaches have been well-enumerated over the years here and elsewhere.

As I was reading the thread, this is pretty much exactly what I was going to say. Given the banzuke system, the only real alternative to letting guys plummet is to give them a maximum point of demotion, pull them, then add them back in when they're ready to return. Plug makuuchi guys in at ms15 when they're ready; they get a rehab basho, so to speak, and if they're back at a level where they should wallop makushita, they'll have their salary forthwith. Maybe juryo guys go to the same level, maybe they drop further down, but it would all work within the system as currently designed.

It would be nice if salaried wrestlers with appropriate medical clearance could draw a partial salary for the time they're out, but given that any time I read about sumo's finances, the news is rarely (if ever) good, shortening the run back to sekitorihood is probably the best we could hope for.

[maglor 122]

31 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Taking the analogy literally, a system as in tennis is virtually impossible to do in sumo, because it technically doesn't protect a player's ranking position, it just protects their ability to enter tournaments and by extension their ability to score ranking points. Top 20 player Casey Smith - feel free to decide if they're on the ATP or the WTA tour with that name - ruptures their ACL and is off the tour for eight months. Their decline down the ranks starts out slow, then steeply accelerates when more and more results drop off their ranking tally, as each disappearing score constitutes an increasing share of what was still left. (That part isn't so different to sumo, even if the ranking mechanics are different.) Upon their return they're ranked somewhere in the 300s.

And they're really ranked in the 300s. Tennis doesn't have one comprehensive tournament structure that accommodates everyone, just loads of small-field events that run concurrently, so Casey would now have to enter low-grade tournaments appropriate for 300-ranked players. Instead, they're given a virtual ranking equal to some position from early on during their rankings decline, let's say position 50, and they get to enter higher-grade tournaments that are appropriate to that rank and, most importantly, which offer a lot more ranking points. That allows Casey to potentially earn loads more points than a typical 300-ranked player can, and move back up the rankings swiftly. (Ironically, this sounds very much like what Seiyashi just proposed.) But here's the kicker: The overall ranking mechanics don't change at all. Casey gets scored exactly the same way as all other players in the tournaments that Casey plays, and one ranking point carries exactly the same value for Casey as it does for everybody else in the 300's.

So, to transpose that to sumo: Sure, it's possible to say, "Terunofuji might be at jonidan 48w now, but we're going to treat him as juryo 10w equivalent and give him an appropriate tournament schedule for that rank". And he goes and posts a 6-9 record in his comeback basho. But then what? For Casey there's an exact points value that is attached to each tournament performance, and that just gets added to the ranking points tally. Maybe the new points total after the first tournament back means they're now ranked 220. But how do you decide where to move Terunofuji from Jd48w based on the 6 wins he got against juryo-level opponents? There's no way to put that result into any sort of useful context with his actual jonidan ranking position. The only context in which those 6 wins have meaning is the virtual rank at which they were achieved.

So yeah, that doesn't work. Sumo just isn't set up to handle entry ranks that are distinct from real ranks. And with that we're just back to the eternal question, "Should an injured rikishi's fall down the banzuke simply stop at some pre-determined point?" It doesn't make much sense to let Terunofuji fall to jonidan, then compete as juryo-equivalent for a single basho, and simply re-rank him straight into juryo afterwards. If that's how we want to get injured rikishi back on the dohyo, they shouldn't be falling beyond their eventual rank of return at all, either being held there or taken off the banzuke altogether until they return. The potential issues with those approaches have been well-enumerated over the years here and elsewhere.

Well Casey with his(or her) protected ranking would be allowed to enter say Wimbledon, taking away a spot from the 107th ranked player who would have ordinarily had a spot in the main draw but now doesn't.

So the equivalent of that would be to allow injured rikishi to re-enter at say Ms15e, and if you were going to be ranked there previously tough luck you are now down half a spot.

[Reonito 1,470]

3 minutes ago, maglor said:

So the equivalent of that would be to allow injured rikishi to re-enter at say Ms15e, and if you were going to be ranked there previously tough luck you are now down half a spot.

Or since MsTD and SdTD ranks already exist, that's a plausible mechanism, if it doesn't get overrun.

[Godango 996]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Or since MsTD and SdTD ranks already exist, that's a plausible mechanism, if it doesn't get overrun.

The TD system was my thought too.

Hypothetically, if you've made above a defined rank; and you have demotions linked directly to consistent, uninterrupted injury kyujo; you have 6 basho qualification for MsTD or SdTD.

If amateur wrestlers can be recognised for and granted rank privilege based on achievement outside of ozumo; those within it being similarly rewarded doesn't seem ridiculous to me.

Sometimes I think the real money lies in an 'NSK Administrator' simulation game.

[Gurowake 4,088]

8 minutes ago, maglor said:

Well Casey with his(or her) protected ranking would be allowed to enter say Wimbledon, taking away a spot from the 107th ranked player who would have ordinarily had a spot in the main draw but now doesn't.

Wouldn't all that it do is take someone who is quite likely going to lose their first match and force them to go through qualifiers?  I mean, that's something, but the way I'm reading the points, you get more points for winning your qualifying bracket than for losing in the first round (30 vs 10).  I'm not sure about prize money though.