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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2024

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(Hatsu results are coming...)

The ballot stays rather short for now. Shirokuma is the first rikishi in three years (since Yoshii) to post 10 straight KK from his debut.

 1. Hoshoryu       13  [score?]
 2. Kotonowaka     12  [score?]
 3. Shirokuma      10*
 4. Oshoumi        10
 5. Takerufuji      8*
 6. Daieisho        7  [score?]
 7. Daiseizan       7
 8. Wakaikari       6*
 9. Onosato         5*
10. Haruyama        5*
11. Awanokuni       5
12. Tokihayate      4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 12 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (8 'veterans' + newcomer Anosho), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 21. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 11 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu W-L
 2. Kotonowaka W-L
 3. Shirokuma KKMK
 4. Oshoumi KKMK
 5. Takerufuji KKMK
 6. Daieisho W-L
 7. Daiseizan KKMK
 8. Wakaikari KKMK
 9. Onosato KKMK
10. Haruyama KKMK
11. Awanokuni KKMK
12. Tokihayate KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

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 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotonowaka 10-5
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi KK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 9-6
 7. Daiseizan KK
 8. Wakaikari MK
 9. Onosato KK
10. Haruyama MK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Tokihayate KK

TB 15 

Edited by Fashiritētā

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1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotonowaka 10-5
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 9-6
 7. Daiseizan KK
 8. Wakaikari KK
 9. Onosato KK
10. Haruyama KK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Tokihayate KK

TB 15

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 1. Hoshoryu 10 - 5
 2. Kotonowaka 11 - 4
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 9 - 6
 7. Daiseizan KK
 8. Wakaikari KK
 9. Onosato KK
10. Haruyama KK
11. Awanokuni MK
12. Tokihayate MK

TB 13

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LKS Mar 24

1. Hoshoryu 8

 2. Kotonowaka 8

 3. Shirokuma kk

 4. Oshoumi KK

 5. Takerufuji KK

 6. Daieisho 9

 7. Daiseizan KK

 8. Wakaikari MK

 9. Onosato KK

10. Haruyama KK

11. Awanokuni MK

12. Tokihayate MK

 

TB 12

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1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotonowaka 12-3
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 10-5
 7. Daiseizan MK
 8. Wakaikari KK
 9. Onosato KK
10. Haruyama KK
11. Awanokuni MK
12. Tokihayate KK

TB 14

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1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 8-7
 7. Daiseizan KK
 8. Wakaikari KK
 9. Onosato KK
10. Haruyama KK
11. Awanokuni MK
12. Tokihayate KK

TB 11

Edited by Yarimotsu
tb 11

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1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotonowaka 12-3
 3. Shirokuma MK
 4. Oshoumi KK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 10-5
 7. Daiseizan KK
 8. Wakaikari MK
 9. Onosato MK
10. Haruyama KK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Tokihayate MK

TB 14

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1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 9-6
 7. Daiseizan KK
 8. Wakaikari MK
 9. Onosato KK
10. Haruyama KK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Tokihayate MK

TB 13

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22 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi KK
 5. Takerufuji KK
 6. Daieisho 8-7
 7. Daiseizan KK
 8. Wakaikari KK
 9. Onosato MK
10. Haruyama KK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Tokihayate KK

TB 14

 

 

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 1. Hoshoryu       11
 2. Kotonowaka   12 
 3. Shirokuma      MK
 4. Oshoumi         MK
 5. Takerufuji       KK
 6. Daieisho            8 
 7. Daiseizan       MK
 8. Wakaikari       KK
 9. Onosato          KK
10. Haruyama     KK
11. Awanokuni    KK
12. Tokihayate    KK 

TB: 14

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 1. Hoshoryu       8-7
 2. Kotonowaka     8-7
 3. Shirokuma      KK
 4. Oshoumi        KK
 5. Takerufuji      KK
 6. Daieisho        8-7
 7. Daiseizan       KK
 8. Wakaikari       KK
 9. Onosato         KK
10. Haruyama        KK
11. Awanokuni       KK
12. Tokihayate      KK

TB: [16]

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1. Hoshoryu       10-5
 2. Kotonowaka     8-7
 3. Shirokuma      MK
 4. Oshoumi        KK
 5. Takerufuji      KK
 6. Daieisho        9-6
 7. Daiseizan       KK
 8. Wakaikari       KK
 9. Onosato         KK
10. Haruyama        KK
11. Awanokuni       KK
12. Tokihayate      MK

TB: 13

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1. Hoshoryu                  9
 2. Kotonowaka          10
 3. Shirokuma                      MK
 4. Oshoumi                                  KK
 5. Takerufuji                                 KK
 6. Daieisho                  9
 7. Daiseizan                        MK
 8. Wakaikari                        MK
 9. Onosato                                    KK
10. Haruyama                                KK
11. Awanokuni                     MK
12. Tokihayate                               MK

TB 10

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10 Hoshoryu
9 Kotonowaka
+ Shirokuma
- Oshoumi
+ Takerufuji
9 Daieisho
- Daiseizan
- Wakaikari
+ Onosato
+ Haruyama
- Awanokuni
- Tokihayate

TB 11

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The selection stats of LKS Haru:

Player Hosho K'waka Shiro Oshou Takeru Daiei Daisei Wakai Onosa Haruy Awano Tokiha   TB   Cons
Fashiritētā + 10-5 + 10-5 + + + + 9-6 + - + - + + 15 1.60
Hakuryuho + 10-5 + 10-5 + - + + 9-6 + + + + + + 15 1.25
Athenayama + 10-5 + 11-4 + - + + 9-6 + + + + - - 13 1.31
Ryoshishokunin - 8-7 - 8-7 + + + + 9-6 + - + + - - 12 1.41
ryafuji - 8-7 + 12-3 + - + + 10-5 - + + + - + 14 1.51
Yarimotsu - 9-6 - 9-6 + - + - 8-7 + + + + - + 11 1.51
WAKATAKE - 8-7 + 12-3 - + + + 10-5 + - - + + - 14 1.73
Bunbukuchagama + 10-5 - 9-6 + - + + 9-6 + - + + + - 13 1.31
Sakura + 10-5 - 9-6 + + + - 8-7 + + - + + + 14 1.65
Profomisakari + 11-4 + 12-3 - - + - 8-7 - + + + + + 14 1.69
Jejima - 8-7 - 8-7 + + + - 8-7 + + + + + + 16 1.46
Holleshoryu + 10-5 - 8-7 - + + + 9-6 + + + + + - 13 1.41
chishafuwaku - 9-6 + 10-5 - + + + 9-6 - - + + - - 10 1.69
Asashosakari + 10-5 - 9-6 + - + + 9-6 - - + + - - 11 1.51
  8:6 7:7 10:4 7:7 14:0 10:4 10:4 8:6 12:2 13:1 8:6 7:7    
Results + + - - + - (MK) + + + + - +    


Another 12-slot ballot with one unanimous slate and two more that are nearly so.

Slightly lowered support for Hoshoryu this time around sees his target record drop to 10-5 (from 11-4), while Kotonowaka is going for 10-5 once more with a couple more up votes. Sekiwake Daieisho also retained his 9-6 target, with significantly more believers than in January.

Excluding the 14:0 and three 7:7, there are eight slots with some tilt to their selections. Among these, Hakuryuho has succeeded in picking the majority side for all of them. Athenayama, Bunbukuchagama and Holleshoryu follow with just one minority choice, while chishafuwaku tops the board with five. (The most overall disagreement per the consensus scores was provided by WAKATAKE, however.)

10 slots is the most that any pair of players have agreed on; that happened for Asashosakari/Bunbukuchagama, Athenayama/Hakuryuho, Jejima/Sakura and Jejima/Yarimotsu. Conversely, chishafuwaku/Sakura and Profomisakari/Ryoshishokunin have only three picks in common, WAKATAKE/Yarimotsu have four.

Wide disagreement about the tie-breakers this time with every number from 10 to 16 represented in our entries.

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Day 7

The first LKS action of the basho occurred off-ballot where veteran Kotodaigo unfortunately completed a minimum-time makekoshi at his highest rank in almost four years, ending his streak of four KK. (In fact, this was his third four-KK streak in that four-year period...)


Day 8

The first ballot KK was scored, quite appropriately, by unanimous pick Takerufuji.


Day 9

And not to be outdone, phenom Onosato followed up with KK of his own just a day later. I'll skip the standings table here; everybody had two points, except Sakura and WAKATAKE.


Day 10

Things were gearing up on this day with a trio of decisions in makushita: Haruyama and Daiseizan achieved widely expected kachikoshi, while Awanokuni posted an early MK. The off-ballot section lost another applicant as well in Asahabataki.

In addition, the day saw ozeki Kotonowaka secure his KK, with two wins left to go for his target.

The first standings proper:

Day 10:
5/12 Decisions, TB 5-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Ryoshishokunin 5 12
1 Yarimotsu 5 11
3 Athenayama 5 13
4 Asashosakari 4 11
5 Bunbukuchagama 4 13
5 chishafuwaku 4 10
5 Holleshoryu 4 13
8 ryafuji 4 14
9 Hakuryuho 4 15
10 Jejima 4 16
11 Profomisakari 3 14
11 Sakura 3 14
11 WAKATAKE 3 14
14 Fashiritētā 3 15

 

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Day 11

No substantive changes as the only news was ozeki Hoshoryu's kachikoshi; two more wins to go for him as well.


Day 12

Sekiwake Daieisho picked up his 7th loss of the basho, putting his 9-6 target record out of reach. Top prospect Wakaikari did better in makushita and clinched another kachikoshi, his seventh since turning pro.

The off-ballot contenders finally produced their first addition to the Natsu ballot; Ajigawa's strong rookie Anosho will be up for our selections after his fifth KK.

Down to a sole leader, with a perfect score:

Day 12:
7/12 Decisions, TB 8-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Yarimotsu 7 11
2 Athenayama 6 13
3 Jejima 6 16
4 Holleshoryu 5 13
5 Profomisakari 5 14
5 ryafuji 5 14
5 Ryoshishokunin 5 12
5 Sakura 5 14
9 Hakuryuho 5 15
10 Bunbukuchagama 4 13
11 Asashosakari 4 11
12 chishafuwaku 4 10
13 WAKATAKE 3 14
14 Fashiritētā 3 15


5 slots remain at this time: Hoshoryu (9-3, needs 10-5), Kotonowaka (9-3, needs 10-5), Shirokuma (6-4-2), Oshoumi (5-7), and Tokihayate (6-6). The number of LKS yusho contenders is quite a bit larger, with no less than 9 players still in the race. A lot of that is due to the large tie-breaker range (driven by the as yet six undecided off-ballot results) combined with the very diverse TB picks.

The scenarios and requirements are far too convoluted to break down on a player-by-player basis, with many multi-way ties possible (there can be as many as six tied players in one potential outcome). However, some players are better-placed than others among the 32 possible permutations:

  • Outright victories are possible 15 different ways, for:
    • Yarimotsu - obviously, as the current sole leader - winning in 8 scenarios (five by two points, three by one point)
    • Athenayama - winning in 3 scenarios (two by two points, one by one point)
    • Profomisakari - winning in 2 scenarios by one point
    • Holleshoryu - winning in 1 scenario by two points
    • chishafuwaku (!!!) - winning in 1 scenario by one point - yes, his remaining picks are so different from everybody else's that he can still go from three behind to one up, passing nearly the whole field
  • As it stands, the TB range can still cover 8 different numbers (in every scenario) even after the point-scoring slots are assigned a result. That means the most "open" way to win from a tie is not to hit the TB exactly, but to be the player who covers all the unselected numbers with the best bracket playoff result. That's possible in the remaining 17 permutations, for:
    • Athenayama in 4 scenarios
    • Holleshoryu in 2 scenarios
    • Jejima in 7 scenarios
    • Sakura in 2 scenarios
    • Yarimotsu in 2 scenarios
  • Winning a tied outcome by hitting the TB exactly (in some cases only after further tie-breaking by brackets) is possible for:
    • Athenayama in 7 scenarios
    • Hakuryuho in 2 scenarios
    • Holleshoryu in 4 scenarios
    • Jejima in 11 scenarios
    • Ryoshishokunin in 4 scenarios
    • Sakura in 4 scenarios
    • Yarimotsu in 16 scenarios

Yarimotsu will finish at least co-leader in no less than 24 of the 32 possibilities and could win in all of them. Athenayama and Jejima are the next-best contenders. All in all, everybody with at least 5 points can still hope for the yusho, except unlucky ryafuji whose lineup is covered by opponent picks every which way.

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Day 13

Hoshoryu picked up his target-clinching 10th win as the only scoring result of the day. But we also saw Daieisho drop to an outright makekoshi after yesterday's target miss, so he will be off the ballot altogether now.

In addition one of the six off-ballot 3-3's was in action, with Takashoki converting that record to kachikoshi and future ballot inclusion.

Leader Yarimotsu was on the wrong side of that Hoshoryu result, allowing one of the two pursuers to join the lead:

Day 13:
8/12 Decisions, TB 9-17
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 7 13
2 Yarimotsu 7 11
3 Holleshoryu 6 13
4 Profomisakari 6 14
4 Sakura 6 14
6 Hakuryuho 6 15
7 Jejima 6 16
8 Bunbukuchagama 5 13
9 ryafuji 5 14
9 Ryoshishokunin 5 12
11 Asashosakari 5 11
12 Fashiritētā 4 15
13 chishafuwaku 4 10
14 WAKATAKE 3 14


Unsurprisingly, Yarimotsu's yusho chances were hit heavily by that as well, with most of his opportunities for an outright yusho now gone. In the 16 remaining scenarios we're now looking at:

  • 8 possible routes to outright victory, for:
    • Athenayama in 3
    • Holleshoryu in 1
    • Profomisakari in 2
    • Yarimotsu in 2
  • 8 possible routes to bracket playoff victory, for:
    • Athenayama in 4
    • Holleshoryu in 2
    • Sakura in 2
      • (these pathways are less valuable now, because the TB range change from Day 12 to 13 mostly eliminated unselected TB numbers)
  • Possible winning routes by hitting the TB exactly:
    • Athenayama in 4
    • Hakuryuho in 2
    • Holleshoryu in 3
    • Jejima in 4
    • Ryoshishokunin in 1
    • Sakura in 4
    • Yarimotsu in 5

Besides hurting Yarimotsu's outright possibilities, heavy blows were also dealt to Jejima's various tied-score chances, especially those on brackets, and chishafuwaku's minimal shot at the yusho evaporated as well.

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Day 14

First off, the lower-rankers on 4-KK streaks suffered a possibly unprecedented wipeout: Five entered the day with 3-3 records, and all of them left it with 3-4. That means Hokutomaru, Taiga, Shohoryu, Chiyotenfu and Shimabukuro all won't be appearing on the next ballot.

With that, the possible final TB scores were determined for all scenarios - and Hakuryuho, Jejima and Ryoshishokunin were all eliminated from yusho contention in the process. The 8 tie-score scenarios were now assured of the following winners: Athenayama (3), Holleshoryu (1), Sakura (1), or Yarimotsu (3). And together with the 8 outright possibilities: Athenayama (6), Holleshoryu (2), Profomisakari (2), Sakura (1), Yarimotsu (5). Two major contenders...

The day progressed with Oshoumi falling to makekoshi in juryo. Holleshoryu and Sakura did not predict that correctly, and the latter was eliminated from the race. Down to eight scenarios and four contenders: Athenayama (2 outright, 1 tied), Holleshoryu (1 tied), Profomisakari (1 outright), Yarimotsu (2 outright, 1 tied).

And one more result came in at the very end of the day: The musubi no ichiban saw Kotonowaka secure his 10th win against fellow ozeki Hoshoryu, clinching his target record. That ended Holleshoryu's hopes.

The standings before the final day:

Day 14:
10/12 Decisions, TB 9-11
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 9 13
2 Yarimotsu 8 11
3 Hakuryuho 8 15
3 Profomisakari 8 14
5 ryafuji 7 14
6 Asashosakari 6 11
7 Bunbukuchagama 6 13
7 Holleshoryu 6 13
7 Jejima 6 16
7 Sakura 6 14
11 chishafuwaku 5 10
12 Fashiritētā 5 15
12 Ryoshishokunin 5 12
14 WAKATAKE 4 14


We're down to two rikishi that have yet to decide their fate, both in juryo: Shirokuma at 7-5-2 (having missed days in the middle of the basho) and Tokihayate at 7-7. And as fate would have it - they're facing off on senshuraku, and that further reduces our potential LKS outcomes.

The matchmaking is especially bad news for Yarimotsu, whose sole remaining path to the title required kachikoshi for both guys. The opposite now-impossible scenario with two MK was one of Athenayama's two roads to the yusho. And we're left with:

  • Athenayama wins the yusho if Shirokuma beats Tokihayate.
  • Profomisakari wins the yusho if Tokihayate beats Shirokuma.

I do believe it's not the first time we're having such a "one match between two LKS rikishi decides everything" setup for senshuraku, but it's definitely highly unusual.

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Day 15

To make things short (yeah, right): Tokihayate defeated Shirokuma and not only secured his top division debut, but also decided the LKS yusho in favour of - Profomisakari! Congrats on your third yusho!

What an unlikely come-from-behind victory, which required four of the last five decisions to break the winner's way. (Only Oshoumi's fate proved irrelevant.) Yarimotsu, Athenayama and Jejima, the three main contenders after Day 12, had combined for something like a 75% likelihood of victory at the time, but in the end the championship went to one of the six lesser hopefuls who made up the other 25%.

The final standings:

Day 15:
12/12 Decisions, TB 10
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Profomisakari 10 14
2 Athenayama 9 13
2 Hakuryuho 9 15
2 Yarimotsu 9 11
5 ryafuji 8 14
6 Holleshoryu 7 13
6 Jejima 7 16
6 Sakura 7 14
9 chishafuwaku 6 10
10 Asashosakari 6 11
10 Bunbukuchagama 6 13
10 Fashiritētā 6 15
13 Ryoshishokunin 5 12
13 WAKATAKE 5 14

Perhaps a small consolation at least for Athenayama and Yarimotsu, alongside Hakuryuho: the jun-yusho. (For Hakuryuho it's the very first runner-up finish, after his four yusho.)

Thanks to the off-ballot rikishi cratering the TB, only the very lowest entry by chishafuwaku proved to be correct. Will we ever stop overestimating?


The new ballot for Natsu 2024:

 1. Hoshoryu       14
 2. Kotonowaka     13
    Shirokuma      10*
    Oshoumi        10
 3. Takerufuji      9*
    Daieisho        7
 4. Daiseizan       8
 5. Wakaikari       7*
 6. Onosato         6*
 7. Haruyama        6*
    Awanokuni       5
 8. Tokihayate      5
 9. Anosho          5*
10. Takashoki       5

Daieisho goes, but we will continue with three sanyaku rikishi anyway courtesy of Onosato's promotion to komusubi.

No additional sekitori on 4-KK streaks to pad out this very short ballot - as far as I can tell that's the first time since Kyushu 2019 that no add-ons are coming in.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Scores for banzuke purposes:

Profomisakari 11 (10+Top)
Athenayama 9
Hakuryuho 9
Yarimotsu 9
ryafuji 8
Holleshoryu 7
Jejima 7
Sakura 7
chishafuwaku 7 (6+TB)
Asashosakari 6
Bunbukuchagama 6
Fashiritētā 6
Ryoshishokunin 5
WAKATAKE 5

Total: 102 / 14 = 7.29 ---> no adjustment

It's either a 9 KK / 5 MK split, or 5 KK / 9 MK. As usual when the median offers no guidance, I've looked to the mean score, which unfortunately means that all the 7-pointers are treated as makekoshi (and thus the TB bonus win didn't really do anything for yokozuna chishafuwaku).


The banzuke for Natsu 2024:

chishafuwaku (Ye 7-8)      Y   ---
Profomisakari (Ow 11-4 Y)  O1  Tetsuba (Oe kosho)
---                        O2  Hakuryuho (Sw 9-6 J)
Yarimotsu (M1w 9-6 J)      S   Athenayama (M3e 9-6 J)
ryafuji (M2w 8-7)          K   Holleshoryu (Ke 7-8)
Bunbukuchagama (Se 6-9)    M1  Sakura (M2e 7-8)
Jejima (NR 7-8)            M2  WAKATAKE (Kw 5-10)
Ryoshishokunin (M1e 5-10)  M3  Fashiritētā (M3w 6-9)
Asashosakari (Yw 6-9)      M4  ---

And that's the end of Asashosakari's time as yokozuna after 25 tournaments, following a third straight makekoshi. I wish I could say "Tokihayate killed my career", but even the opposite senshuraku result between him and Shirokuma would have only meant a score of 8-7, for a hypothetical year-long scoreline of 8-7, 8-7, 8-7, 7-8, 6-9, 8-7...arguably I should have retired on that, too, so the MK just made it cleaner. As for yusho or at least jun-yusho, none in the last 9 tournaments. Can only get better!

Elsewhere, the now sole remaining yokozuna chishafuwaku suffered a hard-luck makekoshi, while kadoban ozeki Profomisakari has bounced right up into tsunatori. We do continue with four high-rankers thanks to Hakuryuho's jun-yusho, which combined with his Hatsu basho yusho into an easy call for promotion.

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Congrats to @Profomisakari , these wins coming from behind are always the best ! :-)

And of course thanks to @Asashosakari for running the game. I stopped posting reminders for the results. Now I know that you  must be extra busy and I also know that you will update the results for sure, eventually, whenever you have the chance. You tought me patience ! :-D

Edited by Athenayama
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