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Jejima

Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

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Only two players went astray.

Oshirokita (M1e) 9-1
Sumo Spiffy (S2e) 6-4
Jakusotsu (S1e) 5-5
Bunbukuchagama (S1w) 5-5
Ryoshishokunin (K1e) 5-2-3
Fashiriteta (K1w) 5-5
Jejima (M1w) 5-5
Hakuhonofan (M2e) 5-2-3
Seiyashi (M5e) 5-4-1
Athenayama (M3w) 4-6
Gurowake (YOw) 3-7
shimodahito (M3e) 2-6-2
rokudenashi (M4e) 0-0-10
The Kyokai (M4w) 0-10
Sakura (Y1e) intai
Reonito (YOe) kyujo
Profomisakari (S2w) kosho
WAKATAKE (M2w) kosho

Ura's aites: 1. Oho, 2. Meisei, 3. Onosho, 4. Midorifuji, 5. Nishikigi, 6. Mitakeumi, 7. Kotozakura, 8. Hoshoryu, 9. Takanosho, 10. Abi

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I was really hoping that they would start to bring the leaders up on Day 10. They haven't and now there are lot of rikishi no more than one-back that need some time near the top.

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4 hours ago, Sakura said:

I was really hoping that they would start to bring the leaders up on Day 10. They haven't and now there are lot of rikishi no more than one-back that need some time near the top.

From what I've been able to tell, in the past they've frequently not pulled guys way up until they have eight wins, and even recently they usually waited until guys had seven wins. In circumstances where they had fewer, there was still an apparent logic for why it happened (broadly revolving around other options not making sense). I'm open to correction, but at the moment I can't see a reason why they would pull anyone up for day ten when the only guy with seven wins was Takarafuji, and I don't think anyone's mistaking his performance with Takerufuji and Onosato running everyone's pockets last basho. Like, even though nameplates shouldn't matter, I don't think you get the day nine matchups in March that we got if Onosato and Takeru were Ura and Takarafuji.

Now that a bunch of people have seven wins, the drag-up might be more likely, but I think it's at least equally possible that they don't do it because all those 6-7 win wrestlers can start knocking each other around instead.

11. Kotoshoho

Edited by Sumo Spiffy

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20 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

From what I've been able to tell, in the past they've frequently not pulled guys way up until they have eight wins, and even recently they usually waited until guys had seven wins. In circumstances where they had fewer, there was still an apparent logic for why it happened (broadly revolving around other options not making sense). I'm open to correction, but at the moment I can't see a reason why they would pull anyone up for day ten when the only guy with seven wins was Takarafuji, and I don't think anyone's mistaking his performance with Takerufuji and Onosato running everyone's pockets last basho. Like, even though nameplates shouldn't matter, I don't think you get the day nine matchups in March that we got if Onosato and Takeru were Ura and Takarafuji.

Now that a bunch of people have seven wins, the drag-up might be more likely, but I think it's at least equally possible that they don't do it because all those 6-7 win wrestlers can start knocking each other around instead.

(rethinking pick)

Sure 8 wins is the usual. My hope is not the same as my expectation. 

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3 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Sure 8 wins is the usual. My hope is not the same as my expectation. 

Yeah, that's fair. I guess I read "hope" as equivalent to expectation, but that's not what you said. My bad.

I'm kind of glad they're not doing it yet. Nobody's really crushing in the rank-and-file; I think I'd rather see them all battle it out and let the sanyaku do their thing until the leaderboard sorts itself out a little more. It's the first time in almost two years that nobody has eight wins after nine days. Let it ride.

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3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Yeah, that's fair. I guess I read "hope" as equivalent to expectation, but that's not what you said. My bad.

I'm kind of glad they're not doing it yet. Nobody's really crushing in the rank-and-file; I think I'd rather see them all battle it out and let the sanyaku do their thing until the leaderboard sorts itself out a little more. It's the first time in almost two years that nobody has eight wins after nine days. Let it ride.

The lower-ranked 7-2 and 6-3 guys are mostly fighting each other, which seems totally appropriate at this point. Shonannoumi got bumped up just a tad to face Midorifuji, and should get a bigger bump soon. And I for one can't blame them for not taking Churanoumi or Takarfuji seriously.

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11. Kotoshoho

I keep wondering who Mitakeumi gets paired with on Day 11 and trying different iterations of the torikumi from there. Will they match him with a sanyaku? or Daieisho? someone lower down the banzuke? In the end, I ignored him assuming the Kyokai waits for 8 wins before testing him. 

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1 hour ago, Oshirokita said:

11. Kotoshoho

I keep wondering who Mitakeumi gets paired with on Day 11 and trying different iterations of the torikumi from there. Will they match him with a sanyaku? or Daieisho? someone lower down the banzuke? In the end, I ignored him assuming the Kyokai waits for 8 wins before testing him. 

Same. It looks like a lot of people think Ura will get bumped up to face Daieisho; since there are three 7-2s in the maegashira ranks, and Mitakeumi and Shonannoumi already faced each other, it strikes me as at least equally likely for Mitakeumi to get bumped up to Daieisho and for Shonannoumi to fight Takarafuji. Then there's still a lot of sorting to do, because Chura/Ryuden/Oshoma all fought each other and Hokutofuji fought all three of them. I don't think anything close to a majority of the paths the committee can take lead to Kotoshoho, I just think more of them lead there than to anyone else.

It's probably gonna be Chura or someone else that would have required a dartboard and a blindfold to figure out.

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11. Kotoshoho

34 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's probably gonna be Chura or someone else that would have required a dartboard and a blindfold to figure out.

That's one of the few rikishi you can say it definitely won't be.

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8 hours ago, Oshirokita said:

In the end, I ignored him assuming the Kyokai waits for 8 wins before testing him. 

Right. I can't imagine Mitakeumi henkaing his way to eight wins.

Oshirokita (M1e) 9-2
Sumo Spiffy (S2e) 6-5
Ryoshishokunin (K1e) 6-2-3
Fashiriteta (K1w) 6-5
Hakuhonofan (M2e) 6-2-3
Seiyashi (M5e) 6-4-1
Jakusotsu (S1e) 5-6
Bunbukuchagama (S1w) 5-6
Jejima (M1w) 5-6
Athenayama (M3w) 5-6
Gurowake (YOw) 3-8
shimodahito (M3e) 3-6-2
rokudenashi (M4e) 0-0-11
The Kyokai (M4w) 0-11
Sakura (Y1e) intai
Reonito (YOe) kyujo
Profomisakari (S2w) kosho
WAKATAKE (M2w) kosho
Ura's aites: 1. Oho, 2. Meisei, 3. Onosho, 4. Midorifuji, 5. Nishikigi, 6. Mitakeumi, 7. Kotozakura, 8. Hoshoryu, 9. Takanosho, 10. Abi, 11. Daieisho

Edited by Jakusotsu

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