Betting odds for the upcoming basho

[Edwardoho 23]

I personally always find it interesting to see who the bookies think (based on a lot of number crunching) is the favourite to win the upcoming tournament.

I think it could be Kotozakura or Hoshoryu's turn. Largely due to doubts about Terunofuji's fitness. 

Terunofuji 4.50 Hoshoryu 6.50 Kirishima 7.00 Kotozakura 11.00 Takakeisho 11.00 Takerufuji 11.00 Takayasu 15.00 Daieisho 17.00 Onosato 17.00 Wakamotoharu 17.00 Abi 19.00 Asanoyama 19.00 Gonoyama 23.00 Atamifuji 26.00 Onosho 29.00

Hiradoumi 34.00 Meisei 34.00 Midorifuji 34.00 Mitakeumi 34.00 Nishikigi 34.00 Oho 34.00 Tobizaru 34.00 Ura 34.00 Kinbozan 41.00 Kotoshoho 41.00 Shonannoumi 41.00 Takanosho 41.00 Shodai 51.00 Tamawashi 51.00

Edited May 10 by Edwardoho

[Yarimotsu 530]

Where do you find the odds?

[Yamanashi 3,735]

Time to get all Bayesian and put a wad of dough on either Tokihayate or Oshoma.

[Tigerboy1966 1,385]

Those odds add up to something like 190%. Nice for the bookie!

[Edwardoho 23]

19 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

Where do you find the odds?

A company called Marathon bet. 

[Koorifuu 886]

I wouldn't be too sure they've paid attention to what's going on lately, with Terunofuji as the favourite.

[Joaoiyama 306]

Got some action on Kirishima, Hoshoryu and a small sprinkle on Onosato at 26.00, for some reason they didn't have odds for Kotozakura 

 

[Koorifuu 886]

11 hours ago, Joaoiyama said:

for some reason they didn't have odds for Kotozakura 

"Who's this new guy at ozeki? That must be a mistake, let's ignore him."

[Asashosakari 18,833]

37 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

"Who's this new guy at ozeki? That must be a mistake, let's ignore him."

"It says here on the internet that this Kotozakura guy's been dead for nearly 20 years, mate."

[Joaoiyama 306]

On 11/05/2024 at 21:42, Joaoiyama said:

Got some action on Kirishima, Hoshoryu and a small sprinkle on Onosato at 26.00, for some reason they didn't have odds for Kotozakura 

 

Terrible performance on the games but at least i made some money, i guess it's easier to make money on sumo than to be successful on the sumo games.

[Gurowake 3,927]

This post for entertainment purposes only.  Bet your own real money at your own risk.

 

Current NetBet top odds:

Terunofuji 5.5

Hoshoryu 6.5

Kotozakura 6.5

Kirishima 8.5

Onosato 8.5

Daieisho 13

Takakeisho 15

Abi 17

Wakatakakage 17

Takayasu 21

Wakamotoharu 21

Gonoyama 26

Atamifuji 26

Asanoyama not given odds.

 

Marathon Bet Has:

Terunofuji	5.55
Hoshoryu	6.55
Kotozakura	6.65
Onosato	8.50
Kirishima	8.60
Daieisho	13.00
Takakeisho	15.25
Abi	17.25
Wakatakakage	17.25
Takayasu	21.00
Wakamotoharu	21.00
Atamifuji	26.00
Gonoyama	26.00

...

Asanoyama 29.00

Practically identical, but they do offer odds on Asanoyama.  

I'm not sending any gambling websites on the internet my money, but if I were I'd probably put a bunch on Onosato with smaller amounts on Terunofuji, Hoshoryu, Kotozakura, Wakatakakage, and Asanoyama to just eke out a small profit.  That would look like:

	Odds	Bet	Payout	Profit
Onosato	8.5	42	357	254
Kotozakura	6.65	16	106.4	3.4
Hoshoryu	6.55	16	104.8	1.8
Terunofuji	5.55	19	105.45	2.45
Wakatakakage	17.25	6	103.5	0.5
Asanoyama	29	4	116	13
		103	total cost

This looks to me at least to have pretty good equity, even if it's the case that if anyone actually makes this spread it'll guarantee that some other rikishi will actually win.

 

[Gurowake 3,927]

15 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm not sending any gambling websites on the internet my money

I just realized they legalized sports gambling in Michigan a few years ago.  However, I'd be very surprised if any the sportsbooks licensed to operate here offer sumo.  Google suggests none of them do.

Edited July 6 by Gurowake

[Yarimotsu 530]

Yeah I'm not one to bet, but those Onosato odds would be tempting if I were. 

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

13 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I just realized they legalized sports gambling in Michigan a few years ago.  However, I'd be very surprised if any the sportsbooks licensed to operate here offer sumo.  Google suggests none of them do.

I’m surprised people aren’t knocking your door down to sign up for a bet app.

I can bet on India domestic league cricket and women’s international volleyball but not sumo.

It seems like the sports league has to petition the state of Michigan to be included in the accepted catalog of betting sports so I doubt you’ll ever see sumo in there.

Edited July 6 by Tsuchinoninjin

[Edwardoho 23]

 

@Joaoiyama - where did you copy and paste the screenshot of odds from? 

@Gurowake - does Netbet offer sumo odds for every basho? I didn't know there was a UK based company doing sumo odds.

[Gurowake 3,927]

17 hours ago, Edwardoho said:

does Netbet offer sumo odds for every basho?

I have no idea.  I only really looked this basho on a whim, remembering this thread.

[itchyknee 60]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sports-betting-debt-bankruptcy-gambling-young-men-research-addiction-2024-8

Quote

The researchers found that the average credit score in states that legalized any form of sports gambling decreased by 0.3% after about four years and that the negative impact was stronger where online sports gambling is allowed, with credit scores dipping in those areas by 1%. They also found an 8% increase in debt-collection amounts and a 28% increase in bankruptcies where online sports betting was given the go-ahead. By their estimation, that translates to about 100,000 extra bankruptcies each year in the states that have legalized sports betting. The number of people who fell dangerously behind on their car loans went up, too. Oddly enough, credit-card delinquencies fell, but the researchers believe that's because banks wind up lowering credit limits to try to compensate for the rise in risky consumer behavior.

Just a warning. You're all adults here, I hope.

[aderechelsea 124]

Betting only for the yusho winner is kind of interesting but i BET (intentional pun) i will never see daily torikumi odds.

And with my sumo gaming successes (nonexistent) i am happy i will never do

[Joaoiyama 306]

On 31/07/2024 at 18:25, Edwardoho said:

 

@Joaoiyama - where did you copy and paste the screenshot of odds from? 

@Gurowake - does Netbet offer sumo odds for every basho? I didn't know there was a UK based company doing sumo odds.

From Playpix but i also used Rainbet in that basho, those were the only trustable betting sites that i found sumo odds here in Brazil, but last basho bet365 had odds avaliable for sumo so i used bet365 for the most part. 

[Joaoiyama 306]

On 04/08/2024 at 07:27, aderechelsea said:

Betting only for the yusho winner is kind of interesting but i BET (intentional pun) i will never see daily torikumi odds.

And with my sumo gaming successes (nonexistent) i am happy i will never do

There were odds for the last eight matches everyday. Good odds for betting, bad odds for the house, i wonder who's the odds maker for these betting sites.

[Athenayama 953]

10 hours ago, Joaoiyama said:

There were odds for the last eight matches everyday. Good odds for betting, bad odds for the house, i wonder who's the odds maker for these betting sites.

AI ?

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

18 hours ago, Joaoiyama said:

There were odds for the last eight matches everyday. Good odds for betting, bad odds for the house, i wonder who's the odds maker for these betting sites.

The odds move based on placed bets, so I guess people who are randomly betting sumo?

[Gurowake 3,927]

7 hours ago, Athenayama said:

AI ?

I don't doubt that some sort of computer analysis is being done, nor do I doubt that it's the main method by which bookies set their odds given the wide variety of sports that they're involved in.  It also somewhat explains the favorable odds on Onosato; those following the sport saw someone who appears to be close to unstoppable (until last basho), while there is really no comparable rikishi who a computer model could analogize his results to except maybe Mitakeumi and Ichinojo, both of whom failed to win Yusho early on despite rising to the top quickly.  Followers of sumo also know it's a bit unfair to analogize their situations to Onosato's, because they came up during the time there were many more dominant rikishi at the top of the banzuke compared to now.  Of course, those odds now look to be just about right given his performance, but I suspect anyone actually following sumo thinks him not scoring double digits was a major disappointment.

Edited August 8 by Gurowake

[Asapedroryu 227]

Betting odds nowadays are mostly created by dedicated companies (not the betting company) that then sell the odd information to betting companies, who (should) review them and publish them, sometimes slightly changing the percentage. One company sells to multiple betting companies, so in a niche sport like Sumo it wouldn't be a surprise that it is only one company or two providing the odds to the few betting companies that have Sumo. Some of the larger betting companies also have in-house teams that create odds.

And the way they determine the odds is mostly based on maths and statistics, so AI also takes a part in the process. Long are the years it was some bloke with a pen and piece of paper doing them.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

20 hours ago, Asapedroryu said:

Betting odds nowadays are mostly created by dedicated companies (not the betting company) that then sell the odd information to betting companies, who (should) review them and publish them, sometimes slightly changing the percentage. One company sells to multiple betting companies, so in a niche sport like Sumo it wouldn't be a surprise that it is only one company or two providing the odds to the few betting companies that have Sumo. Some of the larger betting companies also have in-house teams that create odds.

And the way they determine the odds is mostly based on maths and statistics, so AI also takes a part in the process. Long are the years it was some bloke with a pen and piece of paper doing them.

The odds do move with wagers as well, professional gamblers are usually on bet teams so they can put more money on a favorable line by betting all at exactly the same time (their accounts usually have bet limits imposed on them because they win too often).

If they are late with a bet by some seconds the line will already turn to not be favorable.