Edwardoho 23 Posted August 9 On 07/08/2024 at 22:36, Joaoiyama said: From Playpix but i also used Rainbet in that basho, those were the only trustable betting sites that i found sumo odds here in Brazil, but last basho bet365 had odds avaliable for sumo so i used bet365 for the most part. Thanks - I will keep an eye on those next basho. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joaoiyama 306 Posted September 4 Considering Terunofuji's current status, there's some good oportunities to play. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andreas21 182 Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, Joaoiyama said: Considering Terunofuji's current status, there's some good oportunities to play. Is there the equivalent of a "Put option" in sports gambling? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joaoiyama 306 Posted September 4 1 minute ago, Andreas21 said: Is there the equivalent of a "Put option" in sports gambling? There's this, which means "others on demand". I think you e-mail them which one and they give you the odds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 4 3 hours ago, Andreas21 said: Is there the equivalent of a "Put option" in sports gambling? Sometimes there's a "field" which is a bet for anyone not on the list, but that's probably not going to be available when there's only 42 potential winners. It's more common in things like golf or tennis where there's over a 100. As to betting directly that someone will not win, I don't think those tend to be offered. At very least, it would only be offered if their chance of winning was reasonably high, but even then they probably don't like offering those bets because it's something only an advantage gambler would want to bet on, and they would rather not be the bookie for such people; I'm sure bookies ban such people when they're found just like casinos will ask card counters to leave and not come back. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 4 I don't think Churanoumi's odds make much sense. If he was 8 years younger, sure, but it's hard to believe that last basho was anything but a fluke and he'll have a much harder time in the middle of the division. The same can be said for Endo. I suppose they might be lower payouts because they think they'll get more interest based on their success last basho, and trying to keep a balanced book is more important to them than having odds that truly reflect the likelihood of anyone winning. Given that they seem to think Terunofuji will compete, placing bets on everyone else who is reasonably likely to win should be advantageous if he doesn't, which seems to be the way people that are paying attention to reports are expecting. A lack of Shirokuma is interesting, suggesting that he's even higher odds than Takayasu/Onokatsu, and could be added to the bottom here without an issue after requesting odds for him. Odds Bet Win Profit Kotozakura 7 15 105 12 Hoshoryu 8 13 104 11 Onosato 10 11 110 17 Kirishima 11 10 110 17 Wakatakakage 15 7 105 12 Daieisho 15 7 105 12 Takanosho 17 6 102 9 Takakeisho 17 6 102 9 Abi 19 6 114 21 Hiradoumi 19 6 114 21 Atamifuji 29 4 116 23 Takayasu 101 1 101 8 Onokatsu 101 1 101 8 Total Investment 93 Now certainly it's possible that someone outside this group wins, but it seems to cover everyone who should have a reasonable chance other than Terunofuji. Weighted by the given chances to win, this shows a profit of around 12 on 93 bet. Would you take the risk that someone else wins less 13% of the time to make this an advantageous set of bets? I know I'm not, but that's only because I don't have a legal-in-my-jurisdiction sumo bookie to access. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 3,927 Posted September 4 I'll note, relating to my observation in the post above the previous, my strategy above is certainly very indicative of a advantage gambler, and as such I would suggest making portions of the spread at different bookies, assuming the odds are similar at each of them. Would a bookie even accept bets on that many different rikishi from the same person? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joaoiyama 306 Posted September 5 1 hour ago, Gurowake said: Odds Kotozakura 7 Hoshoryu 8 Onosato 10 Kirishima 11 Wakatakakage 15 I believe these five are the ones to go for, Takayasu would be a tiny play just for that outside chance that a miracle happens. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joaoiyama 306 Posted September 5 1 hour ago, Gurowake said: I'll note, relating to my observation in the post above the previous, my strategy above is certainly very indicative of a advantage gambler, and as such I would suggest making portions of the spread at different bookies, assuming the odds are similar at each of them. Would a bookie even accept bets on that many different rikishi from the same person? They would probably limit your account if you profit with that type of play, hell they limit your account just for winning big playing fair. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vulch 3 Posted September 5 16 hours ago, Andreas21 said: Is there the equivalent of a "Put option" in sports gambling? In the UK, Betfair run a betting exchange as well as a standard site. On the exchange you can take either side of a bet and set your own odds if you don't like the ones on offer. You may or may not get matched on a bet but can amend your offer if the market is moving away from you. They do operate in some jurisdictions outside the UK, but currently no Sumo that I can find. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joaoiyama 306 Posted September 11 Do any of you know of any betting house with sumo odds avaliable in the US? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kaito 275 Posted September 11 6 hours ago, Joaoiyama said: Do any of you know of any betting house with sumo odds avaliable in the US? No, and I've looked. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
