Promotion/Demotion Discussion

[Sakura 1,465]

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well since 1941 38 komosubi have gone 11-4 and every single one was promoted to sekiwake, so yes, 11 wins forces promotion regardless of available spaces.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=k&form1_wins=11&form1_losses=4

That would mean 10 men in sanyaku, which could have implications for the relegation zone.

It would still be 9, like now.

Currently we have 1Y + 4O + 2S +2K, whereas an Onosato promotion would mean 1Y+3O+3S+2K. 

[Bunbukuchagama 681]

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

That would mean 10 men in sanyaku, which could have implications for the relegation zone.

M17e disappears, but no Makuuchi rikishi is projected to land there anyway. But some will drop lower as a result?

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Hiradoumi currently has the next best claim should Atamifuji lose once and Onosato win once and open up another slot.  Meisei needs one more win than him to overtake him in line, and I don't think a veteran bonus will outweigh Hiradoumi's much tougher schedule and better rank/record combination should their last two days get them the same number of wins.  I'm not entirely certain that the one-slot advantage Meisei would have with just one more win would be enough to overcome the schedule issue, though if Meisei beats Onosato on senshuraku, that would be a good impression, though it's not certain he'll even get the chance.  Meisei's Sekiwake experience vs. Hiradoumi currently at his highest rank is still probably is enough that Meisei gets the promotion assuming he is better by the numbers, where in an even sanyaku experience situation I might think the rikishi with the full joi schedule would get the nod even at the small disadvantage by the numbers.

The situation feels much more numerical to me because of their ranks and possible outcomes. 10-5 Meisei mathematically lands at komusubi; 8-7 Hiradoumi lands at M1E. But they've swayed between very noticeable joi preference and effectively none at all over the last several tournaments, so I guess it might just come down to the committee's mood.

If Onosato gets anyone other than Abi on the final day, the committee is absolutely throwing it for him.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

It would still be 9, like now.

Currently we have 1Y + 4O + 2S +2K, whereas an Onosato promotion would mean 1Y+3O+3S+2K. 

Yup. You are right. My counting goes to pieces beyond 6.

[Reonito 1,308]

Sakura already covered this, but just to have it in the same format:

Makuuchi <-> Juryo Day 13

Makuuchi demotion queue: 16e Tomokaze (2-11), 17e Tsurugisho (3-10), 13e Mitoryu (2-9-2), 6e Takerufuji (0-0-13), 15e Tokihayate (5-8), 12w Nishikifuji (4-9), 15w Roga (6-7). The first three are 100% toast, and Takerufuji like 99%. Tokihayate needs two wins, though one might be enough, while the other two need one apiece to be safe by the numbers (you could argue Nishikifuji needs 2, as at 5-10, he'd compute to 17w).

Juryo promotion queue: 3e Endo (11-2), 6w Wakatakakage (12-1), 3w Chiyoshoma (10-3), 5e Kagayaki (9-4), 2e Bushozan (7-6), 12e Onokatsu (12-1), 1e Daiamami (6-7). The first three have done enough, and there's space for them. Kagayaki would probably have a strong enough case to push down Takerufuji even with two losses if he stays 4th in the queue, and will be straight up promotable by the numbers with one more win. Today's blown call left Bushozan in decent shape, Onokatsu needs to get past co-leader Wakatakakage tomorrow, and Daiamami of course must win out but is a near-lock for promotion if he manages it.

[Akinomaki 39,585]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Two decades ago may be a lot of things, but not "recent". And it has nothing to do with the present situation in any case, so I have no idea why you decided to raise the possibility "that no-one will be demotable".

I didn't raise the possibility - just as I said I commented that there might be no-one demotable according to recent standards of who was demoted and who not. That in case of a must-be promoted rikishi these for my taste ridiculous standard of not demoting doesn't apply is self evident.

Edit: calling it "standard" like most of my post was a sarcastic comment

Edited May 24 by Akinomaki

[Nantonoyama 239]

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

We only have two obvious openings, which should be spoken for by Kayo and Fujiseiun, so things could get sticky if Akua wins on Day 15, though presumably they'll set up an exchange bout with Kazekeno.

That indeed would have been a perfect solution, but they already met on day 4.

If Kazekeno wins on day 14, they could go for an exchange bout with Kayo instead. Not promoting a 5-2 ms1w is not unheard of (Okinoumi Kyushu 2008, when 7-0 ms10 Kotokuni got promoted)

[Reonito 1,308]

1 hour ago, Nantonoyama said:

That indeed would have been a perfect solution, but they already met on day 4.

If Kazekeno wins on day 14, they could go for an exchange bout with Kayo instead. Not promoting a 5-2 ms1w is not unheard of (Okinoumi Kyushu 2008, when 7-0 ms10 Kotokuni got promoted)

Ah, thanks for catching that. According to @Asashosakari Kayo is slated to fight Satorufuji on Day 15. I guess if Kazekeno wins, they can put Akua against the loser of the Tsushimanada-Hakuoho bout, and Nabatame against Kazekeno?

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

After today's results I'm guessing Akua vs Hakuoho and Kazekeno vs Nabatame in the exchange bouts.

[Akinomaki 39,585]

2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

After today's results I'm guessing Akua vs Hakuoho and Kazekeno vs Nabatame in the exchange bouts.

Bingo - NHK just announced the juryo torikumi. Also Kitaharima-Chiyomaru and Oshoumi-Kiryuko with visitors from makushita.

[Bunbukuchagama 681]

1 minute ago, Akinomaki said:

Kitaharima-Chiyomaru

Kitaharima is too low, and Chiyomaru is gone anyway. What's the point?

[Akinomaki 39,585]

Just now, Bunbukuchagama said:

Kitaharima is too low, and Chiyomaru is gone anyway. What's the point?

Have enough bouts for day 15

[Akinomaki 39,585]

16 bouts in juryo, nobody on a visit to makuuchi. The 3 yusho contenders get 7-7 opponents, only Aoiyama-Kitanowaka is 2 7-7 paired. Bushozan with the chance to get a promotable record meets 5-9 Shishi, Kagayaki for a stronger record nothing more to prove 8-7 Tochitaikai. Takerufuji is toast, unless Roga or Tokihayate lose and get demoted with much better records than him.

[Sakura 1,465]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Roga or Tokihayate lose and get demoted with much better records than him.

Those two face each other.

[Sakura 1,465]

22 hours ago, Sakura said:

 

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
0-2-12	Terunofuji	Y
10-4	Hoshoryu	O	Kotozakura	10-4
0-2-12	Takakeisho	O	Kirishima	1-6-7 (x)
(x) 4-7-3	Wakamotoharu	S	Abi	10-4
(x) 0-0-14	Asanoyama	K	Onosato	11-3 (o)
7-7	Atamifuji	M1	Daieisho	10-4 (o)
8-6	Hiradoumi	M2
(x) 6-3-5	Takayasu	M3
		M4	Ura	6-8 (x)
		M5	Meisei	9-5
		M7	Mitakeumi	8-6 (x)
		M8	Kotoshoho	8-6 (x)
(x) 9-5	Shonannoumi -M10

 

 

First up the Makuuchi yusho race. Onosato won to eliminate all maegashira not named Daieisho and now is the sole leader after Abi beat Kotozakura. Onosato faces Abi and the two Ozeki also meet. The final yusho contender Daieisho has the easiest opponent in Kotoshoho.

Onosato can win the yusho outright or Abi can force a playoff between the two of them plus the winner of the Ozeki bout and Daieisho as long as he's not asleep.

Onosato's 11th win forces a Sekiwake slot and opens up a second Komusubi slot. The first will go to Daieisho (unless they decide to do the unexpected if Daieisho wins the yusho and put him at Sekiwake as well). Hiradoumi's 8th win eliminates everyone below him on the banzuke not named Meisei, though I expect he'd get the nod over Meisei.

Hiradoumi's biggest rival for that position is Atamifuji, who can snatch the slot with a kachi-koshi on Day 15.

[Sakura 1,465]

Makuuchi - Juryo

(x) 0-0-14	Takerufuji	M6
		M12	Nishikifuji	5-9 (1)
(x) 2-9-3	Mitoryu	M13
(1) 6-8	Tokihayate	M15	Roga	6-8 (1)
(x) 2-12	Tomokaze	M16
(x) 3-11	Tsurugisho	M17

Juryo Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
(x) 6-8	Daiamami	J1
(1) 8-6	Bushozan	J2
(o) 12-2	Endo	J3	Chiyoshoma	11-3 (o)
(1) 10-4	Kagayaki	J5
		J6	Wakatakakage	13-1 (o)
(~)12-2	Onokatsu	J12

 

Can Takerufuji be saved? Mitoryu, Tomokaze and Tsurugisho will be going down in favour of Endo, Chiyoshoma and Wakatakakage. Bushozan and Kagayaki still need one more by the numbers, though could be promoted with those records. Nishikifuji needs one more in Makuuchi, but could be safe already and Tokihayate and Roga meet on Day 15 to find out who has a demotable record and who doesn't.

[Sakura 1,465]

 

Juryo - Makuuchi

		J8	Hakuoho	4-6-4 (1)
(x) 5-9	Oshoumi	J13	Chiyomaru	4-10 (x)
		J14	Kazekeno	7-7 (1)

Makushita Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
3-3	Akua	Ms1	Kayo	5-1 (o)
		Ms2	Nabatame	4-2
(x) 4-2	Kiryuko	Ms3
(o) 7-0	Fujiseiun	Ms11

 

So, Oshoumi and Chiyomaru are down in favour of Kayo and Fujiseiun. The Akua-Kitaharima and Nabatame-Kiryuko matchups were broken up in favour of exchange bouts and all four brought up into Juryo. Kiryuko and Kitaharima's bouts don't matter in a promotion sense, they have just been brought along for the ride. Akua faces Hakuoho with the winner in Juryo. Hakuoho could stay with a loss if Nabatame beats Kazekeno since they might decide that Akua would then swap with Kazekeno and Nabatame's record is not good enough to force down Hakuoho. Otherwise Nabatame-Kazekeno is also an exchange bout.

[Morningstar 117]

One would think with the recent precedent of someone going 5-10 from much lower (J10 & J11) than J8 yet staying, that a 4-11 at j8 would be safe. But they sure do love to play favorites and run backroom deals. 

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

2 hours ago, Morningstar said:

One would think with the recent precedent of someone going 5-10 from much lower (J10 & J11) than J8 yet staying, that a 4-11 at j8 would be safe. But they sure do love to play favorites and run backroom deals. 

The state of the banzuke as a whole is what determines these decisions. They might do goofy stuff at the margins, but 5-10s sticking around at J10/11 isn't even that strange. 4-11 at J8 will likewise usually stay because he's much harder to force a demotion on, but if someone has to go and there aren't any better options, he's going.

Re: sanyaku: I wonder if they'll be tempted to push Hiradoumi into an extra komusubi slot if he, Atami, and Daieisho all win. I don't think they'll actually do it, but I wonder how much they'll consider it.

[Asashosakari 18,674]

There's no way Nabatame fails to go up if he beats Kazekeno. Ms2w 5-2 is way too strong a claim for Hakuoho to survive with 4 wins.

[itchyknee 56]

39 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

There's no way Nabatame fails to go up if he beats Kazekeno. Ms2w 5-2 is way too strong a claim for Hakuoho to survive with 4 wins.

Looking at the J8-J14s who've survived in the 28 Juryo era there have either been plenty of other demotable Js or not enough promotable Mss.

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;form1_rank=J8-J14&amp;form1_wins=4&amp;form2_year=1966-2024&amp;form2_j=on

Here's a list of the next-best Ms based on the following month's Banzuke ranking for every Juryo who was saved:

Based on one example, the most recent Chiyomaru, they do seem to be more lenient with absences than with outright losses. So I guess we'll see.

[Bunbukuchagama 681]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Re: sanyaku: I wonder if they'll be tempted to push Hiradoumi into an extra komusubi slot if he, Atami, and Daieisho all win. I don't think they'll actually do it, but I wonder how much they'll consider it.

For about 3 seconds. 

[Reonito 1,308]

9 hours ago, Sakura said:

Bushozan and Kagayaki still need one more by the numbers, though could be promoted with those records.

With 10 wins from J5e, isn't Kagayaki already promotable?

[Reonito 1,308]

9 hours ago, Sakura said:

Kiryuko and Kitaharima's bouts don't matter in a promotion sense, they have just been brought along for the ride.

And it'll help determine positions among the 4 in the promotion zone (or, in Kitaharima's case, whether he gets to stay in the promotion zone).

[Bunbukuchagama 681]

6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

With 10 wins from J5e, isn't Kagayaki already promotable?

Should be. Which means Takerufuji is gone. 

As a result, we have just one possible exchange to be determined: if Bushozan wins, he will replace the loser of Tokihayate - Roga bout (how didn't they meet earlier?!); Nishikifuji is safe in any case.