Promotion/Demotion Discussion

[Reonito 1,457]

2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Should be. Which means Takerufuji is gone. 

As a result, we have just one possible exchange to be determined: if Bushozan wins, he will replace the loser of Tokihayate - Roga bout (how didn't they meet earlier?!); Nishikifuji is safe in any case. 

They could potentially bring up Onokatsu if he wins, but yeah, I don't think they'll do it over keeping Nishikifuji.

[Bunbukuchagama 723]

4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

They could potentially bring up Onokatsu if he wins, but yeah, I don't think they'll do it over keeping Nishikifuji.

He would calculate at J1, and Nishikifuji would be barely demotable (falling on the non-existent M17w); considering how low Onokatsu is, I see no way they would pull him up to Makuuchi in such situation.

Edited May 25, 2024 by Bunbukuchagama

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

11 minutes ago, Reonito said:

9 hours ago, Sakura said:

Bushozan and Kagayaki still need one more by the numbers, though could be promoted with those records.

With 10 wins from J5e, isn't Kagayaki already promotable?

That's how I have it. I suppose that if there were a dearth of slots available it might result in a bad luck promotion to J1, but that isn't going to be the case.this time. There will be at least five demotables including the loser of Roga vs Tokihayate and there could be six if Nishikfuji loses. Kagayaki is fourth in the promotion queue and can't drop lower than fifth.

[Sakura 1,489]

44 minutes ago, Reonito said:

With 10 wins from J5e, isn't Kagayaki already promotable?

True, I miscounted his position.

42 minutes ago, Reonito said:

And it'll help determine positions among the 4 in the promotion zone (or, in Kitaharima's case, whether he gets to stay in the promotion zone).

Indeed. There are other ways in which those bouts are important. Particularly for Kitaharima.

Edited May 25, 2024 by Sakura

[Akinomaki 40,482]

21 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

16 bouts in juryo, nobody on a visit to makuuchi. The 3 yusho contenders get 7-7 opponents, only Aoiyama-Kitanowaka is 2 7-7 paired. Bushozan with the chance to get a promotable record meets 5-9 Shishi, Kagayaki for a stronger record nothing more to prove 8-7 Tochitaikai. Takerufuji is toast, unless Roga or Tokihayate lose and get demoted with much better records than him.

There goes Takerufuji - seems they gave Bushozan the easiest opponent to ensure there would be no chance to keep Takerufuji. Kagayaki getting the easy Tochitaikai maybe has also something to do with being in the heya of the top of the torikumi makers. Only one of Roga or Tokihayate will be going down and 5 are promotable.

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

And the three-way race for the last sanyaku slot goes to... Hiradoumi. Well done sir!

[Chiyotasuke 293]

The GTB helper is now being deployed on this domain https://gtbhelper.vercel.app/ due to my account getting hacked

[Ripe 71]

So Takerufuji will get demoted to Juryo a basho after winning Makuuchi Yusho... that never happened before, right?

Edited May 26, 2024 by Ripe

[Koorifuu 998]

So I'm guessing the makushita joi will be ten of these eleven guys, roughly in this order:

Kiryuko - Kazekeno - Daiseizan - Kitaharima - Kotokuzan - Otsuji - Yoshii - Wakaikari - Oshoumi - Akua - Satorufuji

Edited May 26, 2024 by Koorifuu

[Koorifuu 998]

One hypothetical question.

If Myogiryu retires before the banzuke is made, do you think Kazekeno stays or that Kiryuko goes up? I imagine it'll probably be the former, because of the early formalities involving juryo promotees.

Edited May 26, 2024 by Koorifuu

[Gurowake 4,052]

2 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

If Myogiryu retires before the banzuke is made, do you think Kazekeno stays or that Kiryuko goes up? I imagine it'll probably be the former, because of the early formalities involving juryo promotees.

I don't understand how "early formalities of juryo promotees" has much to do with it.  Are there any such formalities done before the banzuke is created?  Kiryuko would definitely get the spot if there's one open.

[Sakura 1,489]

Well, the bahso is over and Onosato is the winner. 

Sanyaku

0-2-13	Terunofuji	Y
10-5	Hoshoryu	O	Kotozakura	11-4
0-2-13	Takakeisho	O	Kirishima	1-6-8 (x)
(x) 4-8-3	Wakamotoharu	S	Abi	10-5
(x) 0-0-15	Asanoyama	K	Onosato	12-3
(x) 7-8	Atamifuji	M1	Daieisho	11-4 (o)
(o) 9-6	Hiradoumi	M2
		M5	Meisei	10-5 (x)

 

I don't see a good reason to bump Daieisho to Sekiwake, so he and Hiradoumi should be Komusubi. Meisei was eliminated by Hiradoumi's win and then Atamifuji lost to make the situation fairly clear

[Sakura 1,489]

Makuuchi - Juryo

(x) 0-0-15	Takerufuji	M6
		M12	Nishikifuji	5-10 (~)
(x) 2-9-4	Mitoryu	M13
(x) 6-9	Tokihayate	M15	Roga	7-8 (o)
(x) 2-13	Tomokaze	M16
(x) 3-12	Tsurugisho	M17

Juryo Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
		J1
(o) 9-6	Bushozan	J2
(o) 12-3	Endo	J3	Chiyoshoma	12-3 (o)
		J4
(o) 11-4	Kagayaki	J5
		J6	Wakatakakage	14-1 (o)

 

Nishikifuji couldn't manage the final win, but ought to be safe as the 6th most demotable rikishi with only 5 (albeit strong) promotion cases from Juryo. Roga won the demotion derby to send Tokihayate down. The five promotion cases are Wakatakakage, Endo, Chiyoshoma, Kagayaki and Bushozan. It's not usual that a 9-6 J2 is only the fifth strongest candidate. So, some good results at the top of Juryo and they should be thankful that the bottom of Makuuchi was riddled with injury.

[Sakura 1,489]

Juryo - Makushita

		J8	Hakuoho	5-6-4 (o)
		J9
		J10
		J11
		J12
(x) 5-10	Oshoumi	J13	Chiyomaru	4-11 (x)
		J14	Kazekeno	7-8 (x)

Makushita Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
(x) 3-4	Akua	Ms1	Kayo	5-2 (o)
		Ms2	Nabatame	5-2 (o)
5-2	Kiryuko	Ms3
(o) 7-0	Fujiseiun	Ms11

 

So in the end Hakuoho beat matta-ing Akua to ensure a stay in Juryo and Nabatame won the exchange bout with Kazekeno to wrap things up nicely here. Kiryuko, despitet the good score will have to try again next time, unless some retirements happen before Wednesday.

[Morningstar 118]

The big question for me is will they count last times result for Onosato as part of an Ozeki run or not. Although he was M5 he did face all the named ranks who available and got a Jun-Yusho out of it. If Kirishima is healthy and gets his ten, we could see five Ozeki with hopefully at least one on a strong Yokozuna run in September. That would be interesting. Especially if Wakatakakage is tearing it up making it back to the top.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

So I'm guessing the makushita joi will be ten of these eleven guys, roughly in this order:

Kiryuko - Kazekeno - Daiseizan - Kitaharima - Kotokuzan - Otsuji - Yoshii - Wakaikari - Oshoumi - Akua - Satorufuji

I'll throw in Chiyomaru as a 12th guy who ordinarily should/would be ranked in the top 5.

FWIW, no rikishi who got 6 wins in the Ms top 15 has failed to get promoted to the top 5 in over 30 years (while loads have missed out from Ms16+). I've actually been wondering if this might be an internal rule of theirs. The crunch this basho will be a good test case...either Satorufuji stays out, or they'll have to do something else that's rather unusual for the current era (Akua / Chiyomaru dropping past Ms5, or perhaps Wakaikari only getting a half-rank promotion to Ms6e).

[Bunbukuchagama 723]

37 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Kiryuko, despitet the good score will have to try again next time, unless some retirements happen before Wednesday.

The dream boy got unlucky...

[Bunbukuchagama 723]

4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

If Myogiryu retires before the banzuke is made

That would need to happen really fast. 

[itchyknee 60]

20 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

The big question for me is will they count last times result for Onosato as part of an Ozeki run or not.

They didn't for Takakeisho in 2018, even with Kisenosato's retirement, though they also weren't hurting for a functional Yokozuna back then. Though I guess there's something special about 10+ wins at the start of a run.

Takakeisho 2018.09    K1w    9-6 2018.11    K1e    13-2 Y 2019.01    S1e    11-4 J 2019.03    S1e    10-5

Edited May 26, 2024 by itchyknee

[Gurowake 4,052]

24 minutes ago, itchyknee said:

They didn't for Takakeisho in 2018, even with Kisenosato's retirement, though they also weren't hurting for a functional Yokozuna back then.

Takakeisho 2018.09    K1w    9-6 2018.11    K1e    13-2 Y 2019.01    S1e    11-4 J 2019.03    S1e    10-5

This really isn't comparable.  The first three results were in sanyaku, and he missed out on the promotion despite 33/3 in sanyaku due to being very young and looking awful in his last match when looking like an Ozeki in a loss would have been enough.  As it turned out his 10 wins in the next basho made the only time that anyone has ever been promoted with decreasing number of wins in each basho.

Onosato was M5 in March, and while he faced all the sanyaku he could, most of the rest of his matches were against mid-meagshira and not joi ones.  About the only thing he would have in common with Takakeisho there is youth, and even there he has roughly one year more life experience, if not Ozumo experience.  Tochinoshin starting from M3 faced maegashira that were in the outskirts of the joi before he faced all the sanyaku, and there was no huge gap in maegashira not faced like there was for Onosato - Tochinoshin missed only 3, while Onosato missed 7. Additionally, he had a extremely strong 3-basho run with 14-10-13.  It would have been more interesting to see if only 34 or 35 would have been enough, but 37 clearly was.  Onosato would need 14 wins next basho to reach that number, which would be a shoo-in as having a Yokozuna promotion worthy two basho run in sanyaku.

How many wins does Onosato need?  I don't think setting a specific target is really the right way to look at it.  I think if he wins the Yusho again they'll have to promote him, even if it is with 11 wins, but I'm unsure of whether 12 without at least a playoff loss would be enough, being only 35 wins starting from M5 where we can discount probably half his matches as being against non-joi rikishi, which probably should benefit him by at least 3-4 wins compared to someone in sanyaku, making it not quite hit the standard.  As I mentioned elsewhere earlier, I think the M5 basho can be totally disregarded, and they'll promote him to Ozeki only if his last two basho are worthy of Yokozuna promotion had he already been Ozeki.  That means two Yusho in a row, maybe one playoff loss and a Yusho, or at least 25 wins in those two basho plus the one Yusho he already has.

Edited May 26, 2024 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,052]

34 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I'll throw in Chiyomaru as a 12th guy who ordinarily should/would be ranked in the top 5.

Sure, under normal circumstances I'd slot him at Ms5w and throw everyone else in the area into slots around him, but if it turns out there are too many people that definitely need to be ranked ahead of him, I don't see the problem of dropping him further to accommodate that.  I'm not going to look too hard at it though since my Makushita prediction days are over.

[Gurowake 4,052]

Takerufuji(0-0 M6e)	J1	Onokatsu(13-2 J12e)
Tokihayate(6-9 M15e)	J2	Daiamami(6-9 J1e)
Kitanowaka(8-5 J5w)	J3	Mitoryu(2-9 M13e)
Tsurugisho(3-12 M17e)	J4	Asakoryu(7-8 J4w)
Daishoho(5-10 J2w)	J5	Tohakuryu(6-9 J4e)
Tomokaze(2-13 M16e)	J6	Shimanoumi(9-6 J11e)
Tamashoho(8-7 J9w)	J7	Shiden(8-7 J10e)
Shirokuma(6-9 J6e)	J8	Myogiryu(3-12 J1w)
Hidenoumi(6-9 J8e)	J9	Shishi(5-10 J7e)
Chiyosakae(6-9 J9e)	J10	Shimazuumi(5-8 J7w)
Aoiyama(7-8 J11w)	J11	Tochitaikai(8-7 J14e)
Hakuoho(5-6 J8w)	J12	Hakuyozan(6-9 J10w)
Kayo(5-2 Ms1w)	J13	Tsushimanada(7-8 J12w)
Nabatame(5-2 Ms2w)	J14	Fujiseiun(7-0 Ms11e)

Maybe they could keep Takerufuji in Makuuchi instead of Nishikifuji?

I hope I didn't forget anyone this time.  I counted and made sure the promotions equaled the demotions.

 

Edited May 26, 2024 by Gurowake

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Aoiyama(7-8 J11w) J11 Tochitaikai(8-7 J14e)

That's not going to happen, is it?

[Gurowake 4,052]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

That's not going to happen, is it?

D'oh.  Yeah, switch them.

Edited May 26, 2024 by Gurowake

[Sue 508]

53 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

That would need to happen really fast. 

...and it frequently does, when the rikishi has made the decision during (or before) the tournament, and has the papers all ready to go, to hand in immediately after the end of senshuraku. The first post in the "retirements after Natsu 2024" thread will have the answer.