GTB invite- July (Nagoya) 2024 - Results!!! - 204 entries

[Tigerboy1966 1,379]

No one has posted their guess yet, but here's what I came up with for the tricky part:

M2 Mitakeumi, Wakamotoharu

M3 Takayasu, Gonoyama

M4 Tobizaru, Ura

M5 Takanosho, Shonannoumi

This selection could get 16 points, or it could get zero.

[Kintamayama 44,375]

20 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

No one has posted their guess yet, but here's what I came up with for the tricky part:

M2 Mitakeumi, Wakamotoharu

The last time a 4-11 Sekiwake E was demoted to higher than M3 was in 1971.

[Tigerboy1966 1,379]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

No one has posted their guess yet, but here's what I came up with for the tricky part:

M2 Mitakeumi, Wakamotoharu

The last time a 4-11 Sekiwake E was demoted to higher than M3 was in 1971.

I did say it was tricky!

When there isn't a good solution you have to go for the least bad one.

[Asashosakari 18,813]

Terunofuji (Ye 0-2-13)    Y    ---
Kotozakura (O1w 11-4)     O1   Hoshoryu (O1e 10-5)
---                       O2   Takakeisho (O2e 0-2-13)
Abi (Sw 10-5)             S1   Onosato (Kw 12-3 Y)
Kirishima (O2w 1-6-8)     S2   ---
Daieisho (M1w 11-4)       K    Hiradoumi (M2e 9-6)

Meisei (M5w 10-5)         M1   Atamifuji (M1e 7-8)
Wakamotoharu (Se 4-8-3)   M2   Mitakeumi (M7w 8-7)
Takayasu (M3e 7-3-5)      M3   Gonoyama (M2w 6-9)
Shonannoumi (M10e 9-6)    M4   Ura (M4w 7-8)
Onosho (M5e 7-8)          M5   Tobizaru (M3w 6-9)
Oho (M4e 6-9)             M6   Takanosho (M8e 8-7)
Kotoshoho (M8w 8-7)       M7   Sadanoumi (M11e 9-6)
Ryuden (M14e 10-5)        M8   Oshoma (M14w 10-5)
Kinbozan (M10w 8-7)       M9   Asanoyama (Ke 0-0-15)
Tamawashi (M9e 7-8)       M10  Shodai (M9w 7-8)
Ichiyamamoto (M12e 8-7)   M11  Midorifuji (M6w 5-10)
Nishikigi (M7e 5-10)      M12  Churanoumi (M13w 8-7)
Hokutofuji (M11w 7-8)     M13  Takarafuji (M16w 9-6)
Wakatakakage (J6w 14-1 Y) M14  Endo (J3e 12-3)
Chiyoshoma (J3w 12-3)     M15  Kagayaki (J5e 11-4)
Roga (M15w 7-8)           M16  Bushozan (J2e 9-6)
Nishikifuji (M12w 5-10)   M17  ---

Same as Reonito's except for flips at M2 and M16, and a different solution to the mess from M4e to M6e. GTB will presumably turn on the latter plus Asanoyama.

[Sumo Spiffy 537]

I'm really curious to see if they minimize gaps between guys who are very close or tied, or if they do some surprisingly big splits. I really have a hard time seeing Ura and Onosho not ending up next to each other, for example, but now I wish I'd given more consideration to Takanosho behind everyone in that cluster.

[Shiroiokami 14]

8 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The last time a 4-11 Sekiwake E was demoted to higher than M3 was in 1971.

True, but the two man gap at Rank 2 couldn't be filled by underpromoting and would require an insane overpromotion of shoann, who is already getting a huge bump up already.

[Reonito 1,338]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I'm really curious to see if they minimize gaps between guys who are very close or tied, or if they do some surprisingly big splits. I really have a hard time seeing Ura and Onosho not ending up next to each other, for example, but now I wish I'd given more consideration to Takanosho behind everyone in that cluster.

I'm not sure how much they care, I feel like it's more "whom can we reasonably shove into the next open slot?" That usually means such gaps are minimal, but not always.

[Reonito 1,338]

10 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The last time a 4-11 Sekiwake E was demoted to higher than M3 was in 1971.

But 3 instances of Sekiwake getting demoted to M2 more recently. I did put him at M2w rather than M2e given how extremely lenient even that is, but pulling up Shonann or Takanosho seems like too big of a stretch.

[Reonito 1,338]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

a different solution to the mess from M4e to M6e

I went back and forth a lot on whether they could drop Tobizaru just half a rank, and ultimately convinced myself that this was the most likely option given the alternatives, but I don't feel great about it. 

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

6 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 

Terunofuji (Ye 0-2-13)    Y    ---
Kotozakura (O1w 11-4)     O1   Hoshoryu (O1e 10-5)
---                       O2   Takakeisho (O2e 0-2-13)
Abi (Sw 10-5)             S1   Onosato (Kw 12-3 Y)
Kirishima (O2w 1-6-8)     S2   ---
Daieisho (M1w 11-4)       K    Hiradoumi (M2e 9-6)

Meisei (M5w 10-5)         M1   Atamifuji (M1e 7-8)
Wakamotoharu (Se 4-8-3)   M2   Mitakeumi (M7w 8-7)
Takayasu (M3e 7-3-5)      M3   Gonoyama (M2w 6-9)
Shonannoumi (M10e 9-6)    M4   Ura (M4w 7-8)
Onosho (M5e 7-8)          M5   Tobizaru (M3w 6-9)
Oho (M4e 6-9)             M6   Takanosho (M8e 8-7)
Kotoshoho (M8w 8-7)       M7   Sadanoumi (M11e 9-6)
Ryuden (M14e 10-5)        M8   Oshoma (M14w 10-5)
Kinbozan (M10w 8-7)       M9   Asanoyama (Ke 0-0-15)
Tamawashi (M9e 7-8)       M10  Shodai (M9w 7-8)
Ichiyamamoto (M12e 8-7)   M11  Midorifuji (M6w 5-10)
Nishikigi (M7e 5-10)      M12  Churanoumi (M13w 8-7)
Hokutofuji (M11w 7-8)     M13  Takarafuji (M16w 9-6)
Wakatakakage (J6w 14-1 Y) M14  Endo (J3e 12-3)
Chiyoshoma (J3w 12-3)     M15  Kagayaki (J5e 11-4)
Roga (M15w 7-8)           M16  Bushozan (J2e 9-6)
Nishikifuji (M12w 5-10)   M17  ---

Same as Reonito's except for flips at M2 and M16, and a different solution to the mess from M4e to M6e. GTB will presumably turn on the latter plus Asanoyama.

Wow, this is basically  a carbon copy of my submission. 

[Kachikoshi 21]

Terunofuji (Ye 0-2-13)    Y    ---
Kotozakura (O1w 11-4)     O1   Hoshoryu (O1e 10-5)
---                       O2   Takakeisho (O2e 0-2-13)
Abi (Sw 10-5)             S1   Onosato (Kw 12-3 Y)
Kirishima (O2w 1-6-8)     S2   ---
Daieisho (M1w 11-4)       K    Hiradoumi (M2e 9-6)

Meisei (M5w 10-5)         M1   Atamifuji (M1e 7-8)
Wakamotoharu (Se 4-8-3)   M2   Mitakeumi (M7w 8-7)
Takayasu (M3e 7-3-5)      M3   Gonoyama (M2w 6-9)
Tobizaru (M3w 6-9)        M4   Ura (M4w 7-8)
Onosho (M5e 7-8)          M5   Oho (M4e 6-9)
Shonannoumi (M10e 9-6)    M6   Takanosho (M8e 8-7)
Kotoshoho (M8w 8-7)       M7   Sadanoumi (M11e 9-6)
Ryuden (M14e 10-5)        M8   Oshoma (M14w 10-5)
Kinbozan (M10w 8-7)       M9   Tamawashi (M9e 7-8)    
Shodai (M9w 7-8)          M10  Ichiyamamoto (M12e 8-7)
Midorifuji (M6w 5-10)     M11  Nishikigi (M7e 5-10)
Churanoumi (M13w 8-7)     M12  Hokutofuji (M11w 7-8)
Asanoyama (Ke 0-0-15)     M13  Takarafuji (M16w 9-6)
Wakatakakage (J6w 14-1 Y) M14  Endo (J3e 12-3)
Chiyoshoma (J3w 12-3)     M15  Kagayaki (J5e 11-4)
Roga (M15w 7-8)           M16  Bushozan (J2e 9-6)
Nishikifuji (M12w 5-10)   M17  ---

I may have demoted Asanoyama too much, but the banzuke committee has not been showing much leniency with absent rikishi lately, and to place him any higher would require an overdemotion of Hokutofuji. I realize last basho Nishikigi went ahead of Tamawashi, casuing him to get an overdemotion, but Nishikigi was only one rank beyond Tamawashi by the numbers (as opposed to Asanoyama being 2.5 ranks behind Hokutofuji) and Nishikigi fought all 15 days.

Also I didn't go for it, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if Gonoyama maintained his rank of M2w on a 6-9. I realize no demotion for a 6-9 is unprecedented in Makuuchi, but they've done it several times the last few bashos in Juryo, even though they could have easily avoided it.

[Gurowake 3,924]

Terunofuji(0-2 Ye)	Y
Kotozakura(11-4 Ow)	O	Hoshoryu(10-5 Oe)
	O	Takakeisho(0-2 Oe)
Abi(10-5 Sw)	S	Onosato(12-3 Kw)
Kirishima(1-6 Ow)	S
Daieisho(11-4 M1w)	K	Hiradoumi(9-6 M2e)
Meisei(10-5 M5w)	M1	Atamifuji(7-8 M1e)
Wakamotoharu(4-8 Se)	M2	Mitakeumi(8-7 M7w)
Takayasu(7-3 M3e)	M3	Gonoyama(6-9 M2w)
Tobizaru(6-9 M3w)	M4	Ura(7-8 M4w)
Onosho(7-8 M5e)	M5	Oho(6-9 M4e)
Shonannoumi(9-6 M10e)	M6	Takanosho(8-7 M8e)
Kotoshoho(8-7 M8w)	M7	Sadanoumi(9-6 M11e)
Ryuden(10-5 M14e)	M8	Oshoma(10-5 M14w)
Kinbozan(8-7 M10w)	M9	Tamawashi(7-8 M9e)
Shodai(7-8 M9w)	M10	Ichiyamamoto(8-7 M12e)
Midorifuji(5-10 M6w)	M11	Asanoyama(0-0 Ke)
Nishikigi(5-10 M7e)	M12	Churanoumi(8-7 M13w)
Hokutofuji(7-8 M11w)	M13	Takarafuji(9-6 M16w)
Wakatakakage(14-1 J6w)	M14	Endo(12-3 J3e)
Chiyoshoma(12-3 J3w)	M15	Kagayaki(11-4 J5e)
Roga(7-8 M15w)	M16	Bushozan(9-6 J2e)
Nishikifuji(5-10 M12w)	M17

 

I very explicitly put Asanoyama in the middle between the two extremes that seemed reasonable to minimize the inevitable damage from being wrong.

Edited June 26 by Gurowake

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I very explicitly put Asanoyama in the middle between the two extremes that seemed reasonable to minimize the inevitable damage from being wrong.

Since he could be put anywhere in that range, picking an arbitrary spot felt too... arbitrary.

[Gurowake 3,924]

4 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

I realize no demotion for a 6-9 is unprecedented in Makuuchi, but they've done it several times the last few bashos in Juryo, even though they could have easily avoided it.

For Tamashoho they had literally no other choice unless they were to drastically overpromote the Makushita promotees, and so the 6-9 stay put was the lesser of evils there rather than trying to figure out which of Chiyomaru or Onokatsu deserved the huge promotion. 

For Hidenoumi, I'm not sure why they didn't put Chiyomaru above him.  They both returned from having withdrawn.  At best, they just said Hidenoumi deserved to be ahead, and thought the lack of demotion for his record was fine.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

I lifted takanosho way up for some reason, clear mistake!

[Asashosakari 18,813]

On 26/06/2024 at 18:46, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I lifted takanosho way up for some reason, clear mistake!

I hope you're right! I'm getting nostalgic for the more dynamic banzuke-making of old again, after I randomly came across the Kyushu 2013 banzuke just now. On the left how they actually constructed it a decade ago, on the right what a good GTB guess would probably approximately expect to see nowadays:

S1e   6-9   M1   M5w   9-6        S1e   6-9   M1   M5w   9-6
M6w   8-7   M2   M7w   8-7        M6w   8-7   M2   K1w   5-10
K1w   5-10  M3   M11e  9-6        M7w   8-7   M3   M2w   6-9
M13w 10-5   M4   M11w  9-6        M1w   5-10  M4   M4w   7-8
M2w   6-9   M5   M4w   7-8        M3w   6-9   M5   M4e   6-9
M3w   6-9   M6   M1w   5-10       M3e   5-10  M6   M11e  9-6
M4e   6-9   M7   M13e  9-5-1      M13w 10-5   M7   M11w  9-6
M3e   5-10  M8   M12e  8-7        M6e   6-9   M8   M13e  9-5-1
M12w  8-7   M9   M6e   6-9        M5e   5-10  M9   M9w   7-8
M5e   5-10  M10  M9w   7-8        M12e  8-7   M10  M8e   6-9
M14e  8-7   M11  M16w  9-6        M12w  8-7   M11  M8w   6-5-4
M14w  8-7   M12  M8e   6-9        M9e   6-9   M12  M14e  8-7
M8w   6-5-4 M13  M9e   6-9        M10e  6-9   M13  M16w  9-6
J3w  11-4   M14  M10e  6-9        M14w  8-7   M14  J3w  11-4
M10w  5-10  M15  J4e  10-5        M10w  5-10  M15  M7e   3-12
M7e   3-12  M16  M15w  7-8        M15w  7-8   M16  J4e  10-5

Edited June 28 by Asashosakari
missed the red off one KK

[Sumo Spiffy 537]

On 25/06/2024 at 21:44, Gurowake said:

I very explicitly put Asanoyama in the middle between the two extremes that seemed reasonable to minimize the inevitable damage from being wrong.

I thought about that, but one, as Bunbun said, it requires an arbitrary choice, which I don't like doing. Two, and more to the point for GTB, I figure if they put Asanoyama in that 9-11 range, they're also going to do some goofball thing that makes some of the picks which would have been a half-slot off end up being correct.

[Gurowake 3,924]

20 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm getting nostalgic for the more dynamic banzuke-making of old again

That's certainly a very different paradigm than what we're seeing now, and reminds me a lot of Bench.  This makes the Bench method seem a bit more reasonable, considering that it presumably was first done in this sort of environment.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

On 26/06/2024 at 18:03, Asashosakari said:

I hope you're right! I'm getting nostalgic for the more dynamic banzuke-making of old again, after I randomly came across the Kyushu 2013 banzuke just now. On the left how they actually constructed it a decade ago, on the right what a good GTB guess would probably approximately expect to see nowadays:

S1e   6-9   M1   M5w   9-6        S1e   6-9   M1   M5w   9-6
M6w   8-7   M2   M7w   8-7        M6w   8-7   M2   K1w   5-10
K1w   5-10  M3   M11e  9-6        M7w   8-7   M3   M2w   6-9
M13w 10-5   M4   M11w  9-6        M1w   5-10  M4   M4w   7-8
M2w   6-9   M5   M4w   7-8        M3w   6-9   M5   M4e   6-9
M3w   6-9   M6   M1w   5-10       M3e   5-10  M6   M11e  9-6
M4e   6-9   M7   M13e  9-5-1      M13w 10-5   M7   M11w  9-6
M3e   5-10  M8   M12e  8-7        M6e   6-9   M8   M13e  9-5-1
M12w  8-7   M9   M6e   6-9        M5e   5-10  M9   M9w   7-8
M5e   5-10  M10  M9w   7-8        M12e  8-7   M10  M8e   6-9
M14e  8-7   M11  M16w  9-6        M12w  8-7   M11  M8w   6-5-4
M14w  8-7   M12  M8e   6-9        M9e   6-9   M12  M14e  8-7
M8w   6-5-4 M13  M9e   6-9        M10e  6-9   M13  M16w  9-6
J3w  11-4   M14  M10e  6-9        M14w  8-7   M14  J3w  11-4
M10w  5-10  M15  J4e  10-5        M10w  5-10  M15  M7e   3-12
M7e   3-12  M16  M15w  7-8        M15w  7-8   M16  J4e  10-5

Looking at discrepancies like M4e 6-9 (-> M7e vs -> M5w) doesn't a fair amount of this consideration have to do with whether or not that position was in the joi?

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,249]

7 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Looking at discrepancies like M4e 6-9 (-> M7e vs -> M5w) doesn't a fair amount of this consideration have to do with whether or not that position was in the joi?

Well, it’s hard to imagine the Shimanoumi saga happening then, and that’s juryo 

[Tigerboy1966 1,379]

60 points I think. That's a good score in a low scoring game, and a mediocre score in a high scoring one. Got a lot of the  big decisions wrong but I should be ok.

Edited June 30 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Tigerboy1966 1,379]

On 25/06/2024 at 08:26, Tigerboy1966 said:

No one has posted their guess yet, but here's what I came up with for the tricky part:

M2 Mitakeumi, Wakamotoharu

M3 Takayasu, Gonoyama

M4 Tobizaru, Ura

M5 Takanosho, Shonannoumi

This selection could get 16 points, or it could get zero.

Ended up with 11 from that segment

 

[Gurowake 3,924]

Misses for me:

Takanosho/Shonannoumi/Oho -5

Oshoma/Kinbozan -4

Ichiyamanoto/Midorifuji -4

Asanoyama/Nishkigi -4

Kagayaki/Roga -4

-21 total, so 63 points.

Edited June 30 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 18,813]

61 for me. Probably a handful of scores that vastly exceed that courtesy of a better Asanoyama choice, and then a big glut in that low 60s range...

[Kintamayama 44,375]

Well, a total reshuffling of the top players this time around - the yusho goes for the first time to Kale, who is also the overall leader now. 22 new players, 204 entries in all. I think there even is a prize for the winner this time donated by Katsumaben, who runs a tegata store- I'll get back to you on that shortly. In any case, nice work, happy to see many new names on the leaderboard, which means the competition is getting tougher..

Milestones:

Ullishimaru- 140th basho (!!!!!!)

Leonishiki 140th basho (!!!!!!)

Yubinhaad - 140th basho (!!!!!!)-

THE IRONMEN OF GTB!! Respect..

 

itachiyama- 100th basho

Gonzaburow- 100th basho

Goshobiyama - 30th basho

Cheesofuji- 20th basho

Leo Dickinson- 20th basho

Barutonoumi - 20th basho

 

Thanks for playing, and check out how you did here..

Special thanks to Andoreasu who actually runs the show and Doitsuyama for hosting it all and always being there.

AAand now, on with the Ba-show!!

 

 

Edited July 1 by Kintamayama