Kyushu 2024 discussion (results)

[Gernobono 467]

Enho lost the decider for a sandanme-yusho against fujitoshi

[Eikokurai 3,437]

9 minutes ago, Gernobono said:

Enho lost the decider for a sandanme-yusho against fujitoshi

Wow, I really have been away from sumo a long time. Enho is down in sandanme?! There has been so much change. I see now he was out for a whole year, which means I've been out at least as long as that too.

[DonKordylone 9]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Wow, I really have been away from sumo a long time. Enho is down in sandanme?! There has been so much change. I see now he was out for a whole year, which means I've been out at least as long as that too.

Wait till I tell you he was at JK 100

[Seiyashi 4,108]

10 hours ago, Katooshu said:

that are more a matter of experience. In college no one nodowa'd him like Takanosho did or survived being blasted to the edge of the dohyo like Daieisho somehow managed. In these cases he seemed to freeze up a bit when met with that resistence, whereas the other two ozeki are quite dynamic and can adjust to many different situations.

Or in today's case, got way too eager to finish the job. 

[Gernobono 467]

11 hours ago, Katooshu said:

whereas the other two ozeki are quite dynamic and can adjust to many different situations.

shouldn't thee opponents have adjust to the situation the ozeki are creating

i prefer the way of onosato's attacking sumo to the escaping-sumo the other ozeki are showing

[Itachiyama 119]

Kiryoku is back to Juryo safe even if he looses his last and Kazekeno wins, right?

[Itachiyama 119]

6 hours ago, Gernobono said:

Enho lost the decider for a sandanme-yusho against fujitoshi

back at least to Makushita ... close call!?

 

[Tigerboy1966 1,472]

21 minutes ago, Itachiyama said:

Kiryoku is back to Juryo safe even if he looses his last and Kazekeno wins, right?

That's how I read it. There are going to be at least two demotions from juryo (Onosho, Chiyomaru), and Kiryuko can't be lower than second in the promotion queue. Tomorrow's matches might have an impact on the order of the promotees but I think that's all.

[Tigerboy1966 1,472]

24 minutes ago, Itachiyama said:

6 hours ago, Gernobono said:

Enho lost the decider for a sandanme-yusho against fujitoshi

back at least to Makushita ... close call!?

I don't think he will be promoted. 6-1 from that rank is likely to put him around sandanme 4.

[dingo 1,293]

Shishi must've gotten dizzy from all that circling around the dohyo. He tried to stay in the bout but just couldn't be fast enough to exert enough pressure on Kitanowaka.

Congratulations to Tamawashi and to many healthy years and kachikoshi to come!

Roga has been fighting hard the whole basho and keeps his kachikoshi opportunity alive with 2 of the remaining 2 matches needed. It'd be quite an achievement for him, being at his career highest rank. All of his basho for the past year have been 9-6, 8-7 or 7-8 so he's taking the slow but steady route, though high maegashira seems to be about his ceiling for now. 

Is Mitakeumi actually gonna get a kachikoshi!? This basho he seems to be an example of the healing through more sumo philosophy, though I'm not sure it's actually a good examaple for other injured rikishi... 

Takarafuji finally got his kachikoshi on the fourth try. I was actually getting worried he might end up makekoshi but he managed to eek out that one win in the Endo 

Takerufuji got a lesson that not everyone wants to face him head on. Abi on the other hand still maybe thought he might have an outside chance at the yusho? Though that possibility was gone at the end of today. Or he just wants to be in pole position for a sanyaku return.

Shodai suddenly woke up from his few day long siesta, but still lost against tenacious Tobizaru. Looking quickly at the numbers Shodai is gonna vacate one komusubi slot while Wakamotoharu got a kachikoshi just today. Daieisho needs one win to remain at sekiwake but Kirishima needs two. So at minimum there's one open spot in sanyaku and at most three although it seems quite unlikely. And even at 7-8 I'm not sure if Daieisho or Kirishima would be dropped to maegashira though they might especially if someone in the joi has a great score. So maybe it really is a race between Wakatakakage and Abi to the sanyaku and Abi just wants to make sure he's the first name on the list. 

Onosato was soooo close to getting Hoshoryu but that last moment tottari was genius. Another moment where Onosato's lack of experience at high level showed. For Onosato it doesn't make much difference and he'll be wiser next time, but for Hoshoryu it's this basho and this win that counts. 

Kotozakura had some trouble with a determined Takanosho but his ozeki experience showed, using Takanosho's forward momentum expertly against him. He's now got a great shot at his long awaited first yusho. 

Tomorrow Kotozakura has to get over one more bout, facing new ozeki Onosato whereas Hoshoryu gets Kirishima who's motivated to avoid makekoshi. And the day after tomorrow we get the two yusho candidate ozeki facing each other in a yusho decider. Exciting doesn't even begin to describe it! 

Edited November 22, 2024 by dingo

[RabidJohn 1,853]

@dingo You keep gazumping me with your excellent posts!

Day 13 and an ozeki finishing 14-1 is still a possibility. I'm not invested enough in either Hoshoryu or Kotozakura to have a preference, but it would be so good if one of them can manage it.

I doubt I'll be jumping on any hype trains if it happens, but I'm up for a bit of trainspotting.

[Hankegami 537]

Well, here goes Day 13. Things are panning out nicely. The Yusho run is now down to Kotozakura and Hoshoryu, the latter still feeling more genki than the former (but see what @Leoben and I wrote in the previous page).

Let's talk about out upcoming yusho and jun-yusho holders. Onosato vs. Hoshoryu ended up by the ropes but was not as close as it sounds IMHO. Hoshoryu convincingly won the tachi-ai and was only pushed back by Ogresato because he is Ogresato (seriously, he's dangerous!). I suggest everyone to watch the final part in slow motion. Hoshoryu tried to get Onosato's belt as he came closer. He failed and was pushed back to the ropes. In the same movement, he moved his upper body sideways as Onosato pushed him again and pulled his arm. Very clean tottari. Most impressive. Kotozakura vs. Takanosho was very different. First of all, Kotozakura lost the tachi-ai and was run around by Takanosho. Everything looked like he was going to be driven out, but he got hold of his opponent's belt and pulled him down. This showed a gap in skills between the two. Takanosho also looked for a belt grip many times (yorikiri is your friend, always) but Kotozakura kept his arms high. In general, it's fair to say that the Ozeki had a much greater control of the match the whole time.

Given how close we are to the end of the tournament, I decided to review the path the two Ozeki have had thus far:

Spoiler

 

Day 1: Kotozakura vs. Shodai = won tachi-ai, got pushed back, last minute push down - tsukiotoshi // Oho vs. Hoshoryu = stalled tachi-ai, easy yorikiri

Day 2: Kotozakura vs. Hiradoumi = stalled tachi-ai, got a grip - yorikiri // Wakamotoharu vs. Hoshoryu = won tachi-ai, grabbed arm and pulled him out- oshidashi

Day 3: Kotozakura vs. Oho = won tachi-ai but was pushed around & out - LOST // HIradoumi vs. Hoshoryu = won tachi-ai, pushed him out - oshidashi

Day 4: Kotozakura vs. Wakatakakage = stalled tachi-ai, arm bar - kokenage // Ura vs. Hoshoryu = won tachi-ai, got pushed back, got the belt - uwatenage

Day 5: Kotozakura vs. Ura = won tachi-ai, pushed him out - oshidashi // Wakatakakage vs. Hoshoryu = stalled tachi-ai, wrestled all around & won - kokenage

Day 6: Kotozakura vs. Abi = stalled tachi-ai, pushed him back & out - oshidashi // Atamifuji vs. Hoshoryu = won tachi-ai, got pushed back, last minute pull - isamiashi (actually tottari)

Day 7: Kotozakura vs. Atamifuji = stalled tachi-ai, got the belt - uwatenage // Abi vs. Hoshoryu = uncalled matta (seriously!), Hoshoryu rushed up, pushdown by Abi - LOST

Day 8: Kotozakura vs. Churanoumi = wins tachi-ai, long belt battle, pulls him down - uwatehineri // Oshoma vs. Hoshoryu = loses tachi-ai, got pushed back, got the belt - uwatenage

Day 9: Kotozakura vs. Oshoma = won tachi-ai, stalled on a belt battle, Oshoma slips while evading - oshitaoshi // Wakatakakage vs. Hoshoryu = stalled tachi-ai, wrestled all around & won - kokenage

Day 10: Kotozakura vs. Tobizaru = won tachi-ai, stall, pulled him down - hikiotoshi // Kotoshoho vs. Hoshoryu = won tachi-ai, worked on the belt, yorikiri

Day 11: Kotozakura vs. Wakamotoharu = lost tachi-ai, stalled & pushed him back & out - oshidashi // Daieisho vs. Hoshoryu = stalled tachi-ai, oshi brawl, got the belt & drove him to the ropes, lost it but pushed him out nonetheless - oshidashi

Day 12: Kotozakura vs. Daieisho = won tachi-ai & oshi battle - oshidashi // Shodai vs. Hoshoryu = won tachi-ai by measure, easily got the belt - yorikiri

Day 13: Kotozakura vs. Takanosho = lost tachi-ai, struggled and wrestled around, got a grip - uwatenage // Onosato vs. Hoshoryu = won tachi-ai, got pushed back, pulled arm - tottari

 

This analysis gives us an important takeaway: Kotozakura and Hoshoryu won their tachi-ai in the same number of bouts (7). This means that the general impression that Kotozakura is playing defensive is false. There is also much overlap on the guys that either made them falter: Wakatakakage and Wakamotoharu come on top of this particular list. The two Ozeki, more than anything else, have different approaches to the tachi-ai. Kotozakura has an Onosato-ish style, up with the arms and push forward. This allows him to absorb the impact in case he's pushed back. Either case, he goes on working for an inside belt grip at close contact with his opponent while he capitalizes on his weight not to get swung around (Onosato usually goes for the kill instead). Hoshoryu this tournament has a lot of Kirishima (and of Mongolian attitude in general) in himself: powerful thrusts to get an advantageous position for a belt grip - and get some distance to execute a B plan whether necessary. This approach is a total novelty for Hoshoryu, who used to go for the belt immediately.

This analysis also puts us back to the most likely F2F those two are going to get. Tomorrow we get Kotozakura vs. Onosato (3-2). Considering what I said here above, this will likely come down to whether Kotozakura will be able to stall Onosato or not. The Ogre has little patience, although his raw strength is off the charts. The other match will be Kirishima vs. Hoshoryu (9-9). I am a bit crossed that the torikumi committee are pulling Kirby up although they spared him to Kotozakura - especially considering that Kirishima regularly owns him (4-13). However, it's equally true that Hoshoryu didn't face Churanoumi and Tobizaru (perhaps not the thoughest opponents, but...), so that's life. The two Mongolians usually go for a belt battle, and - believe it or not - Kirishima had a lot of edge as of late (1-3). He also must win, otherwise he gets MK. I believe that this bout will show us the actual reach of Hoshoryu's sumo (assuming that Kirishima shows up, he got the Shodai illness this basho). Day 15 is a no-brainer: Kotozakura vs. Hoshoryu (8-12) incoming. I already wrote a lot about their F2F yesterday. Let's wrap up that's still Kotozakura's basho to lose, and Hoshoryu's to win.

Edited November 22, 2024 by Hankegami

[hakutorizakura 643]

Kotoshoho leaves the dohyo with a bloody face for how many days in a row now? Poor kid.

Mitakeumi, to KK or not to KK?

[Jakusotsu 6,045]

Another tough nut to query: the yusho race being narrowed down to two contenders after day 13 presumably hasn't happened all that often. Those two having the last bout on senshuraku is the cherry on top.

[kedevash 43]

I usually rate each rikishi's bout on a scale of 0 to 5. (Next basho i will do on a scale of 0 - 3 - easier). Here is the favorites (at least mine)" quality of sumo" ratings.

Hoshoryu / O / 12-1 / 4.16

Kotozakura / O / 12-1 / 3.76

Daieisho / S / 7-6 / 3.53

Abi / M3 / 10-3 / 3.33

Wakatakakage / M2 / 9-4 / 3.30

Onosato / O / 8-5 / 3.23

Takerufuji / M16 / 8-5 / 3.08

Wakamotoharu / K / 8-5 / 2.69

Kirishima / S / 6-7 / 1.92

The biggest dissapointment is for Kirishima. I don't know if anything is wrong physically but he seems to lack power in some bouts. Very strange.
The other one not doing as expected is Takerufuji. At M16, i thought he will cruise throught the first week but he did not. Maybe his sumo is becoming too predictable now.
Daieisho is doing well. His losses to Wakatakakage and Atamifuji on day 2 and 3 hampered his basho.
Wakatakakage is doing great but not against the Ozeki. He lost these 3 bouts very easily. And Abi punished him too.

On the other hand Hoshoryu and Kotozakura are doing magnificent. I give the edge to Hoshoryu because of his fighting spirit. This time he has the eyes of a tiger going on.

Edited November 22, 2024 by kedevash

[Kotogouryuu 131]

14 minutes ago, kedevash said:

The biggest dissapointment is for Kirishima. I don't know if anything is wrong physically but he seems to lack power in some bouts. Very strange.

Something just seems off with him sometimes. It's how he lost his ozeki rank, and after a couple of much better basho, he's lost again. I can't claim that someone at sekiwake rank doesn't try, but that's what I see on the footage.

[Asashosakari 19,646]

3 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Another tough nut to query: the yusho race being narrowed down to two contenders after day 13 presumably hasn't happened all that often. Those two having the last bout on senshuraku is the cherry on top.

It doesn't appear to be that rare, even if we exclude cases that are only technically a two-man race, e.g. leader 13-0 / pursuer 11-2 / field 10-3. Cases identical to the current setup (two co-leaders two ahead and still to be matched up) in bold.

Kyushu 2023: O1w Kirishima and M8w Atamifuji 11-2, field 9-4, leaders met on Day 14
Nagoya 2021: Y1e Hakuho and O1e Terunofuji 13-0, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 15
Haru 2019: Y1e Hakuho 13-0, M4w Ichinojo 12-1, field 10-3, leaders could have met but never did (hey, that sounds familiar...)
Haru 2017: Y2w Kisenosato and O1w Terunofuji 12-1, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 15
Natsu 2016: Y1e Hakuho 13-0, O1e Kisenosato 12-1, field 10-3, Hakuho had defeated Kisenosato on Day 13
Aki 2014: Y1e Hakuho and M10e Ichinojo 12-1, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 14
Hatsu 2014: Y1w Hakuho 13-0, O1w Kakuryu 12-1, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 15 (yusho still on the line)
Natsu 2013: Y1e Hakuho and O1e Kisenosato 13-0, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 14
Aki 2012: O1e Harumafuji 13-0, Y1e Hakuho 12-1, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 15 (yusho still on the line)
Nagoya 2012: Y1e Hakuho and O2w Harumafuji 13-0, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 15
Nagoya 2011: O1w Harumafuji 13-0, Y1e Hakuho 12-1, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 14
Haru 2010: Y1e Hakuho 13-0, S1e Baruto 12-1, field 10-3, Hakuho had defeated Baruto on Day 11
Hatsu 2009: Y1w Asashoryu 13-0, Y1e Hakuho 12-1, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 15 (yusho still on the line)
Hatsu 2007: Y1e Asashoryu 12-1, M9w Toyonoshima 11-2, field 9-4, leaders could have met but never did (again, and not even with Hakuho)
Kyushu 2001: Y1e Musashimaru 12-1, S1e Tochiazuma 11-2, field 9-4, leaders met on Day 14
Hatsu 2001: Y2e Takanohana 13-0, Y1w Musashimaru 12-1, field 10-3, leaders met on Day 15 (yusho still on the line)
 

The marginal variety mentioned in the opening sentence has happened another 10 times in the 2000's, most recently in Aki 2016. The most recent non-qualifying case where two co-leaders were two ahead but had already faced off (and therefore could have been caught) was in Hatsu 2021.

Edited November 22, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 6,045]

Hehe, I was hoping you'll take the bait, and you didn't disappoint

[Asashosakari 19,646]

Just now, Jakusotsu said:

Hehe, I was hoping you'll take the bait, and you didn't disappoint

Fortunately I still had a yusho arasoi summary file laying around from this exercise (which I should update sometime). Didn't quite have the data needed, but it still shortened the required time considerably.

[Reonito 1,518]

9 hours ago, dingo said:

And even at 7-8 I'm not sure if Daieisho or Kirishima would be dropped to maegashira though they might especially if someone in the joi has a great score.

They haven't dropped a 7-8 sekiwake to maegashira since 1992 (53 occurrences since then) so at most two spots will be open, and only if Kirishima loses his final 2.

[Reonito 1,518]

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

That's how I read it. There are going to be at least two demotions from juryo (Onosho, Chiyomaru), and Kiryuko can't be lower than second in the promotion queue. Tomorrow's matches might have an impact on the order of the promotees but I think that's all.

Chiyomaru and Onosho are toast, Hatsuyama and Kiryuko are guaranteed to be first/second in line to replace them. Kazekeno is irrelevant as he's ranked just below the "invisible line." Miyagi would have a solid 3rd promotion claim with a 4-3 from Ms2w if he wins tomorrow, but one of Tohakuryu, Nabatame, or Daishoho would have to lose twice, and even that might not do it given the recent decision-making. Tohakuryu and Daishoho go H2H tomorrow, so one is guaranteed safety. It is perhaps telling that they've matched Miyagi with fellow Makushitan Kotokuzan tomorrow instead of holding him back for a potential exchange bout on day 15.

[Reonito 1,518]

For those interested, we belatedly have a promotion/demotion topic thanks to @Gurowake 

[Katooshu 3,325]

Takerufuji may have gotten lucky there. Not even a monoii?

[Kaninoyama 1,816]

Takerufuji vs. Ichiyamamoto. Ichi might have gotten robbed there. On the slow-mo replay looked like Takerufuji touched his hand down before Ichiyamamoto went out. Deserving of at least a mono-ii. 

[Benihana 1,937]

Hoshoryu finally looks like what many of us expected him to look like. That was some unca energy this basho, especially today. I hope he handles Kotozakura accordingly tomorrow.