Kyushu 2024 discussion (results)

[RabidJohn 1,748]

I found Shishi's win over Midorifuji kind of cute, like a baby meerkat figuring out what to do with a scorpion.
He's had a rough introduction to the top division, but today was a bright spot.

As I expected Onosato is not getting double digits this time. His next step will be learning how to maintain form after winning a yusho, because that's a prerequisite of getting a rope.

Tomorrow the yusho will be decided in the musubi-no-ichiban and the winner will be an ozeki with 14-1. Feels like a long time since that happened.
Yesterday I had no preference, but Hoshoryu's showmanship has swayed me. I'm a sucker for the spectacular.

[rhyen 1,833]

Hhhhhmmmmm…..tomorrow is senshuraku and we just only started on the 10th page of this thread? What gives?

we need to gambarize more and post more stuff if we want to make our 25 page quota for honbasho discussion.

[Godango 974]

Pretty good tournament eh what?

[BroadMeadow 39]

23 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Tomorrow the yusho will be decided in the musubi-no-ichiban and the winner will be an ozeki with 14-1. Feels like a long time since that happened.
Yesterday I had no preference, but Hoshoryu's showmanship has swayed me. I'm a sucker for the spectacular.

Pretty sure July '21 was the last time the 2 top ranked met on the last day for yusho.

Re: Hosh, I think "tsuridashi" must be Japanese for, "I AM the next yokozuna!" That was pretty sweet.

[Benihana 1,918]

Just now, Godango said:

Pretty good tournament eh what?

Yeah, nothing really to complain about. Maybe the one or the other robbery by a gyoji, but no scandals, good entertainment on the the dohyo and the best Ozeki performance in ages. The last Ozeki going 14-1 was Terunofuji in 2021.07, before that Kisenosato 2017.01! I think the last - and only - time we had two Ozeki at 13-1 before senshuraku was 1953.05. Yoshibayama beat Toshinishiki, but the yusho and kanto-sho went to 15-0 M6 Tokitsuyama. So this might be the first time with two 13-1 Ozeki where one will actually win the basho.

[Tigerboy1966 1,429]

After looking set for the runner-up spot at the start of the basho, Kotozakura has overhauled Onosato for most wins in the calendar year. Our top 10 going in to the final day of the year are:

65 Kotozakura

64 Onosato

61 Hoshoryu

51 Abi

50 Daieisho

49 Takanosho, Wakamotoharu

46 Oho, Hiradoumi

45 Churanoumi

[Hankegami 482]

Man, this basho is juicy. If Hoshoryu gets the rope after January, we can safely conclude that lifting Kirishima is now the benchmark to be considered for Yokozuna. I can see Onosato trying to get Kirishima's belt next March 

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

After looking set for the runner-up spot at the start of the basho, Kotozakura has overhauled Onosato for most wins in the calendar year. Our top 10 going in to the final day of the year are:

65 Kotozakura

64 Onosato

Which raises the question: if Kotozakura loses against Hoshoryu (65 / 62) and Onosato wins against Kirishima (65) are they going to split the prize? I never followed much this particular contention. 

38 minutes ago, Benihana said:

Yeah, nothing really to complain about. Maybe the one or the other robbery by a gyoji, but no scandals, good entertainment on the the dohyo and the best Ozeki performance in ages. The last Ozeki going 14-1 was Terunofuji in 2021.07, before that Kisenosato 2017.01! I think the last - and only - time we had two Ozeki at 13-1 before senshuraku was 1953.05. Yoshibayama beat Toshinishiki, but the yusho and kanto-sho went to 15-0 M6 Tokitsuyama. So this might be the first time with two 13-1 Ozeki where one will actually win the basho.

It's a shame that I couldn't find a way to check the pre-15 day basho era via the database. Not only there is no way to put the losses in, nor to get the "last day" without putting Day 15 specifically. However, the first time since the 1950s still sounds good (also, it was still back when the joi had their own schedule no matter what - Tokitsuyama never faced anyone above M1).

[Tigerboy1966 1,429]

26 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Which raises the question: if Kotozakura loses against Hoshoryu (65 / 62) and Onosato wins against Kirishima (65) are they going to split the prize? I never followed much this particular contention. 

It's an unofficial award but as far as I can see there hasn't been a tie since 1970 when Tamanoumi and Kitanofuji both ended on 75 wins. Strange to think that those two great rivals died more than 50 years apart.

[Akinomaki 40,256]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

if Kotozakura loses against Hoshoryu (65 / 62) and Onosato wins against Kirishima (65) are they going to split the prize? I never followed much this particular contention. 

They then both get the most wins of the year award, after the yusho awards. AFAIK both the full prize money (don't know how much), no split.

2 on yokozuna run next basho, also the runner-up with 13-2 qualifies.

[Benihana 1,918]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

It's a shame that I couldn't find a way to check the pre-15 day basho era via the database. Not only there is no way to put the losses in, nor to get the "last day" without putting Day 15 specifically. However, the first time since the 1950s still sounds good (also, it was still back when the joi had their own schedule no matter what - Tokitsuyama never faced anyone above M1).

I made two queries, one for 14-1 O and one for 13-2 O. Then i just compared the basho dates and when there was a correlation, i checked the scores manually, if the 13-2 O was 13-1 or 12-2 after day 14. 1988.01 we had 14-1 Asahifuji and 13-2 Konishiki, but Big K got his 2nd loss on day 10. These are the only three instances i could find with one 14-1 and one 13-2. And the were only 6 basho with two 13-2 Ozeki at the end. Akinoumi/Terunoumi 1942.05, Sadanoyama/Kitabayama 1963.07, Kitanofuji/Tamanoshima 1970.01, Takanosato/Wakashimazu 1983.05, Chiyotaikai/Tochiazuma 2002.01 and Chiyotaikai/Kaio 2004.03.

So i'm pretty sure it's a first time at least in the DB-era.

Edited November 23, 2024 by Benihana

[Leoben 127]

27 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

2 on yokozuna run next basho, also the runner-up with 13-2 qualifies.

Has there ever been a dual promotion? Say we get another 14-1/13-2 with the winner reversed, or an actual play off.

[Kotoroiwa 64]

Kitanofuji & Tamanoshima in 1970, Taiho & Kashiwado in 1961.

[RabidJohn 1,748]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

2 on yokozuna run next basho, also the runner-up with 13-2 qualifies.

The winner certainly, but I'm going to wait to see what the judging department and the YDC have to say about the runner-up.

It's not like either of them are coming off a Kisenosato-esque run of JY.

[Asashosakari 19,159]

1 hour ago, Benihana said:

I made two queries, one for 14-1 O and one for 13-2 O. Then i just compared the basho dates and when there was a correlation, i checked the scores manually, if the 13-2 O was 13-1 or 12-2 after day 14. 1988.01 we had 14-1 Asahifuji and 13-2 Konishiki, but Big K got his 2nd loss on day 10. These are the only three instances i could find with one 14-1 and one 13-2. And the were only 6 basho with two 13-2 Ozeki at the end. Akinoumi/Terunoumi 1942.05, Sadanoyama/Kitabayama 1963.07, Kitanofuji/Tamanoshima 1970.01, Takanosato/Wakashimazu 1983.05, Chiyotaikai/Tochiazuma 2002.01 and Chiyotaikai/Kaio 2004.03.

So i'm pretty sure it's a first time at least in the DB-era.

That sounds very complicated... Doesn't this do what you're looking for, or am I misunderstanding what information you're seeking?

[Hankegami 482]

3 hours ago, Benihana said:

I made two queries, one for 14-1 O and one for 13-2 O. Then i just compared the basho dates and when there was a correlation, i checked the scores manually, if the 13-2 O was 13-1 or 12-2 after day 14. 1988.01 we had 14-1 Asahifuji and 13-2 Konishiki, but Big K got his 2nd loss on day 10. These are the only three instances i could find with one 14-1 and one 13-2. And the were only 6 basho, with two 13-2 Ozeki at the end. Akinoumi/Terunoumi 1942.05, Sadanoyama/Kitabayama 1963.07, Kitanofuji/Tamanoshima 1970.01, Takanosato/Wakashimazu 1983.05, Chiyotaikai/Tochiazuma 2002.01 and Chiyotaikai/Kaio 2004.03.

So i'm pretty sure it's a first time at least in the DB-era.

Great. But what about the older, older times? Since we're on it, I tried to put it another way. I ran a query on Ozeki vs. Ozeki bouts, one also ending up with the Yusho (here). It goes back to 1910 (pretty much since the Yusho was officially awarded). The bouts taking places in the middle of the tournaments also have the final score in parentheses - hence, no parentheses = they met on the final day. I had to check manually, but here's my results:

• 1961.01 Kashiwado (13-2Y) vs. Kotogahama (12-3J) = they met at 12-2, Kashiwado won
• 1985.03 Asashio IV (13-2Y) vs. Wakashimazu (12-3J) = also met at 12-2, Asashio IV won
• 1992.03 Konishiki (13-2Y) vs. Kirishima I (12-2J) = again met at 12-2, Konishiki won
• 1999.03 Musashimaru (13-2Y) vs. Takanonami (12-3J) = again met at 12-2, Musashimaru won
• 2001.03 Kaio (13-2Y) vs. Musoyama (12-3J) = again met at 12-2, Kaio won
• 2003.07 Kaio (12-3Y) vs. Chiyotaikai (11-4J) = This time the two Ozeki faced each other at 11-3. A change. Kaio won, again

The first result is that no one managed to get to the last day with less than 2 losses. So, tomorrow's Kotozakura vs. Hoshoryu is a first since at least 1909. Second, it was more difficult to get the same score while entering the final day before the 1960s and the gradual end of the draw system. Let's say you get a draw - your score is not the same anymore. Now we get a torinaoshi instead - we evolved, duh.

Third and last thing, the results you looked for - a 13-1 vs. 13-1 - were never about a Day 15 showdown for the Yusho like tomorrow - some were playoffs, other didn't have the yusho as the final prize for the winner. A double check with my query shows that:

• 1942.05 Akinoumi (12-3) vs. Terukuni (13-2J) was for the jun-yusho. The yusho went to 14-1Y Futabayama (here)
• 1963.07 Sadanoyama (13-2D) vs. Kitabayama (13-2Y) was a playoff (here)
• 1970.01 Kitanofuji (13-2Y) vs. Tamanoshima (13-2D) was again a playoff - and it ended up with a double promotion (here)
• 1983.05 Takanosato (13-2J) vs. Wakashimazu (13-2J) didn't happen. They both wrestled for Futagoyama-beya, and never faced each other
• 2002.01 Chiyotaikai (13-2D) vs. Tochiazuma (13-2Y) was a playoff (here)
• 2004.03 Chiyotaikai (13-2J) vs. Kaio (13-2J) happened on Day 14 and not on Day 15 (here)

2 hours ago, Leoben said:

Has there ever been a dual promotion? Say we get another 14-1/13-2 with the winner reversed, or an actual play off.

I thought we already had this discussion somewhere. Anyway, we have up to five precedents, the last from 1970:

• Fuyu 1789 Tanikaze - Onogawa (banzuke - promotions to Yokozuna are not registered in the banzuke before 1891.03) 
  • Actually the first documented promotion to Yokozuna in history. This was not the result of their performances on the dohyo, but rather a consequence of a feud between the Yoshida family (who organised tournaments in Tokyo) and the Gojo family (who did the same in Kyoto). The Yoshida found out some old papers showing that they had permission to give yokozuna licences since the 1600s, and used this newfound privilege to give the tsuna to the two leading Ozeki of the time (ironically ranked as Sekiwake that tournament). There are probably other reasons for that - like the need to show the actual champions to the crowds. 1700s and early 1800s sumo was nowhere as popular as it was later on. Few people paid to see tournaments, and the organizers used to invite local celebrities ("guest Ozeki") to cover the Ozeki spot - with the actual Ozeki being ranked down to Sekiwake. The yokozuna rank was a nice way to showcase the actual guys to put on a watch.
• Natsu 1903 Hitachiyama - Umegatani II (banzuke)
  • Some background again. Throughout most of the 1800s, the yokozuna rank became an one-man rank (despite its very different origins). In 1903, the sole Yokozuna Ozutsu was drafted for the Russo-Japanese War (seriously). The Yoshida family, aware they were going to be without a Yokozuna for quite some time, decided to promote Ozeki Hitachiyama to the spot. Well, Hitachiyama refused - unless they promoted also his great rival, Ozeki Umegatani II. Friendship aside, it's most possible that Hitachiyama didn't want to be the first "second" Yokozuna in a long time all alone. Long story short, Ozumo in 1903 passed from having one, to having three Yokozuna in the banzuke. Good times.
• Natsu 1942 Akinoumi - Terukuni (banzuke)
  • Finally a double promotion given by the numbers. Akinoumi was promoted with a 13-2J, 13-2J, and Terukuni with a 12-3, 13-2J. Their second result was a de facto doten, as also Yokozuna Futabayama posted a 13-2 - but he was given the Yusho because he was the highest ranked guy. The other two got the rope as a consolation prize. Of course, it was long before the 1990s - "equivalent" meant any 12+ result, give or take (I'm not going to discuss the really, really flexible rules of the pre-YDC era).
• Aki 1961 Taiho - Kashiwado (banzuke)
  • Another double promoton by the numbers - or something like that. Taiho got the rope with a standard promotion result (13-2Y, 12-3Y), while Kashiwado was pulled along because he got a doten that Aki (11-4, 12-3D). However, Kashiwado was also denied promotion back in Haru (13-2Y, 12-3J), so he was probably just given back what he was already supposed to wear - the tsuna. This behavior ("backup promotion") was not uncommon back then. Before him, Chiyonoyama went 13-2Y, 12-3Y in Aki 1949 - Haru 1950 (no Kyushu nor Hatsu back then, 4 tournaments per year era), but was denied his promotion because "too young". They rushed giving him the tsuna after he won Natsu 1951 with a convincing 14-1Y.
• Hatsu 1970 Kitanofuji - Tamanoumi (banzuke)
  • Our most recent case, and yet another example of "sorry, here's your tsuna". Kitanofuji, like Taiho, got his promotion the usual way (13-2Y, 13-2Y), but not Tamonoshima (soon-to-be Tamanoumi), who carried a 10-5, 13-2D. However, Tamanoshima was supposed to be promoted to Yokozuna back after Natsu 1968 (12-3J, 12-3J, 13-2Y), but he was denied the rope because he won a tournament in which both Taiho and Kashiwado went kyujo. So, that's another example of "sorry man, you'll get it next yusho, promised - huh, actually, a doten is just fine".

The main takeaway from those precedents is the doten - back then the golden standard for an "equivalent". We simply don't know how they would deliberate today. In single cases, an "equivalent" promotion is at least 26/30 with a yusho and jun-yusho, 25/30 back-to-back yusho. The main issue is that we are now two standards away from most of the promotions in this list - we went through the post-Futahaguro era first (1989-2004), and we are now in the back-to-equivalents era (2004-). In those days, the JSA is following a intermediate stance between older standards (just get two 12 as Ozeki) and "scare" standards (two yusho or bust).

Since 2004 - that is, Kaio's run for the rope -, surfaced a new tendency to consider 26/30 the bare minimum for promotion. Kaio won the Aki 2004 tournament with a 13-2Y, and it was suggested to promote him with another 13-2 post, jun-yusho included. However, Kaio gave a 12-3J in Kyushu and wasn't promoted (same with Takakeisho in 2020). Fast forward to 2006, Hakuho won his first tournament as an Ozeki with a dominant 14-1Y  performance (see, Onosato?), and Kitanoumi-Rijicho declared that any 13-2 result would have locked his promotion as Yokozuna (so he raised the bar to 27/30). Guess what? Hakuho followed up with a 13-2J but was denied promotion (good job, Kitanoumi - I guess they were positive he was not going to make it). I don't know any official explanation for this, but I think that this precedent establishes that no Ozeki can be promoted to Yokozuna after just two tournaments unless he gets a back-to-back yusho.

Nothing came up until 2014, when Kakuryu gave a 14-1Y, 14-1J (28/30). This time the NSK decided to go on for a promotion, officially taking back the equivalent formula in the plate. Those very high standards where somewhat lowered for Kisenosato, who provided a 12-3J, 14-1Y after Hatsu 2017. Of course, Kisenosato collected a lot of other jun-yusho on his way, so we must also consider his CV here. Same with Terunofuji in 2021 (12-3Y, 14-1Y), who had steamrolled his way up there earlier that year. So, that's 26/30 - or 26/30 with a good CV. Otherwise that's either 27/30 or 28/30.

Now, neither Kotozakura nor Hoshoryu have Kisenosato's and Terunofuji's CV. Kotozakura has 2 jun-yusho and one doten, while Hoshoryu has one yusho and one jun-yusho. Kirishima has a better record of them both (2 yusho, 2 jun-yusho). Whelp, Onosato has a better record (2 yusho, one jun-yusho)! This means that we're talking about a 27/30 or even 28/30 as a more likely bar for promotion. Certainly, a doten (with a Kotozakura Yusho) in Hatsu 2025 would be more in line with tradition for a double promotion. But nothing goes against a jun-yusho as a valid equivalent.

Edited November 23, 2024 by Hankegami

[BroadMeadow 39]

37 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

It's not like either of them are coming off a Kisenosato-esque run of JY.

How DARE you try to bring measured contemplation to this subject! We are here for wild speculation and flights of fancy ONLY!

But seriously, if Terunofuji competes all of January and the 2 ozeki mirror this month that would certainly boost their case wouldn't it?

[lackmaker 437]

Does Terunofuji competing all of January count as a "flight of fancy"?

[Benevolance 2,484]

Just popped by to say, "Wow, Hoshoryu!" And Kirishima's face afterwards was like, "Seriously? That did not just happen!"

I think this has been a really good tournament. Not much to complain about, the top ozeki are wrestling like ozeki, and we've got a final day, yusho-decision bout to decide the tournament that won't be a 12-3 yusho. 

[BroadMeadow 39]

34 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Does Terunofuji competing all of January count as a "flight of fancy"?

CAVU!

[MumboJumbo 37]

1 hour ago, BroadMeadow said:

But seriously, if Terunofuji competes all of January and the 2 ozeki mirror this month that would certainly boost their case wouldn't it?

3-man playoff in January. Hoshoryu beats Terunofuji, but then Kotozakura beats the two of them for the yusho. Terunofuji retires as the two youngsters are promoted.

Wait, this isn't the ridiculous predictions thread....

[hakutorizakura 617]

I want to see another tsuridashi tomorrow!

Either of them would be fine, the receiver's expression will be priceless anyway 

[Octofuji 351]

6 hours ago, Godango said:

Pretty good tournament eh what?

Yes I've really enjoyed it, as others have said great to see the two Ozeki at the top of the leaderboard. And to see a favourite Tochitaikai get a kachikoshi in Juryo (I don't know how good his sumo has been, I'm just going by the leaderboard).

Only downside for me is maybe age is catching up with Sadanoumi.

[Koorifuu 932]

3 minutes ago, Octofuji said:

And to see a favourite Tochitaikai get a kachikoshi in Juryo (I don't know how good his sumo has been, I'm just going by the leaderboard).

Very solid. He's still got to build on his mental fortitude, as exemplified by his loss to an inferior Hakuyozan after the latter pulled some shenanigans at the tachiai, but doing very good sumo and taking convincing wins.

[Gurowake 4,033]

I'm feeling somewhat hyped about the double tsuna run next basho, something that seemed a remote possibility if it didn't involve Onosato after last basho's results.  Obviously Kotozakura won't be able to go 13J - 13D/J and hope for a promotion, but 13J - 12Y might be enough (things like it have in the past).  It'll be unfortunate if he goes 13-14 and fails to pick up a Yusho, since one of those in a career already is a practical necessity post-Futahaguro regardless of how strong the non-Yusho records are.  At least with 15 he should be guaranteed the win; Kotoshoho isn't going to be able to match that score. Having already won a Yusho, Hoshoryu is much more likely to be promoted without a Yusho this basho or next so long as he gets 13 wins in each.  Similarly, 13J-12D might do it for him as well.

Whoever wins this Yusho probably only needs a 12D and a 12J might do it too.

Edited November 23, 2024 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 19,159]

I'll say the same thing here that I just posted on Reddit: "26 wins means promotion" is fan cruft. There's absolutely no way Hoshoryu gets promoted if he wins neither this yusho nor the next one. His last (and only) championship would have been one and a half freakin' years ago at that point, and he'd have won zero as ozeki.

Edited November 23, 2024 by Asashosakari