Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Nagoya 2024

[Asashosakari 18,787]

Seki-Toto (play):

After Kaito's promotion to yokozuna for its banzuke, the top two ranks continued to be a source of interesting developments in Natsu basho:

Yokozuna Pandaazuma won the championship with a splendid score of 14-1 (only the second 14-win result in the 2020's). It's his first yusho since he had earned the promotion to the top rank some four years ago, though not the first time atop the standings; two earlier ties for a tournament's best result had seen other competitors prevail in the yusho tie-breaking with Pandaazuma thus finishing "only" doten runner-up there.

Shin-yokozuna Kaito posted a respectable 10-5 record for his top rank debut, while Norizo only finished 8-7 for the second basho in a row. That has prompted me to address the still-open issue of what to do with the yokozuna retirement rules now that ozeki are being treated less leniently. More on that in a separate comment after this one.

One rank down, major upheavals occurred. Golynohana declared his all-games intai two days into the basho (I hope you'll consider another comeback if/when time permits!), and Joaoiyama and ScreechingOwl both tacked on another makekoshi to the one they had in March, resulting in their demotions from the ozeki rank. Ganzohnesushi, also carrying one demerit point from back-to-back 8-7's, narrowly cleared his name with a 9th win on senshuraku.

The one ozeki who delivered a strong Natsu result was the same as in January and May, as Susanoo achieved 11 wins again. That created quite the conundrum:

2024.01 O2w 12-3 J (tied for 2nd-3rd)
2024.03 O1w 11-4 J (tied for 2nd-4th overall, 2nd-3rd in makuuchi)
2024.05 O1e 11-4 (tied for 4th-6th overall, 4th-5th in makuuchi)

Susanoo is of course the game's only former yokozuna - he voluntarily gave up the rank after Haru 2021 following back-to-back makekoshi, and started again from the bottom. He only needed 15 basho to become ozeki again and has been back at the rank for four tournaments now, and if I was giving full credit for past achievements I just might have considered these three results sufficient for another promotion to yokozuna. However, I really can't consider anything that happened before 2021, and the lack of any yusho/doten scores during the current ozeki stint made it very difficult to justify a promotion even though these were clearly very strong back-to-back-to-back finishes. Obviously this is still a continuing tsunatori, and I hope the Nagoya results will allow for a clear decision to be made, one way or the other.

With all that we're down from five ozeki to just two in one fell swoop, which hopefully relaxes the situation a bit for the lower sanyaku ranks for the next few tournaments. And in fact we had a big clearing of the decks there as well, after all four incumbent S/K left Natsu basho with makekoshi records. The new banzuke features only the two demoted ozeki as sekiwake (that's almost certainly a first), along with five fresh komusubi promoted from the maegashira ranks. These include the two runners-up Athenayama and Kajiyanosho who finished Natsu at 12-3, two wins behind Pandaazuma.

The rest of the top division ranking worked out okay until M11e. From that point on, a massive lack of KK records led to some exceedingly generous promotions and lenient demotions to be able to fill the remaining makuuchi spots.

Pandaazuma (Y1e 14-1 Y)     Y1   Kaito (Y2e 10-5)
Norizo (Y1w 8-7)            Y2   -
Susanoo (O1e 11-4)          O    Ganzohnesushi (O2e 9-6)
Joaoiyama (O3w 7-8)         S    ScreechingOwl (O2w 6-8-1)
Kobashi (M3e 11-4)          K1   Athenayama (M5w 12-3)
Kajiyanosho (M7e 12-3)      K2   Kotononami (M1w 9-5-1)
-                           K3   Chishafuwaku (M2w 9-6)

Unkonoyama (M1e 8-7)        M1   Bill (M6e 10-5)
Flohru (Se 7-8)             M2   Konosato (M7w 10-5)
Itchynotoe (M4e 8-7)        M3   Chijanofuji (M8w 10-5)
Andoreasu (Sw 6-9)          M4   GONZABUROW (M9w 10-5)
Oskahanada (Kw 6-9)         M5   DeRosa (M2e 7-7-1)
Gansekiiwa (M6w 8-6-1)      M6   Metzinowaka (Ke 5-10)
Chelseayama (M4w 7-8)       M7   Jakusotsu (M3w 6-9)
TochiYESshin (J1e 11-4)     M8   Frinkanohana (M5e 6-9)
Asapedroryu (M13w 9-6)      M9   Toonoryu (M11w 8-7)
Gernobono (M12w 8-7)        M10  Balon (M9e 7-8)
Effinojo (M14e 8-7)         M11  Rowitoro (J2w 9-6)
Oortael (M10w 6-7-2)        M12  Gaanaag (M10e 5-10)
Kuroimori (J8w 10-4-1)      M13  Bunbukuchagama (J9e 10-5)
Onakaderu (J4e 8-7)         M14  Herritarooo (M14w kosho)
Terarno (M12e 5-10)         M15  Kintamayama (M8e 3-12)

Mariohana (M15e 6-9)        J1   Tomisakae (J1w kosho)
Kashunowaka (M15w 6-9)      J2   Kitakachiyama (J2e 7-8)
Gawasukotto (J3e 7-8)       J3   Ahokaina (M11e 3-12)
Hana-ichi (J3w 7-8)         J4   Andonishiki (J4w 7-7-1)
BlackPinkMawashi (J10e 8-7) J5   Asashosakari (J5w 7-8)
Ulishimaru (J6e kosho)      J6   Sakura (J6w kosho)
Achiyama (Ms2w 10-5)        J7   Kishikaisei (J7e 7-8)
Ketsukai (M13e 2-13)        J8   Unagiyutaka2 (Ms1w 9-5-1)
Saruyama (J8e 7-7-1)        J9   Warusaru (Ms6e 10-5)
Anjoboshi (Ms4w 9-5-1)      J10  Beeftank (Ms2e 8-7)
Fujisan (J5e 4-9-2)         J11  WAKATAKE (J11w kosho)
Kaiowaka (J9w 6-9)          J12  Chudorj (J10w 6-8-1)
Holleshoryu (J13e kosho)    J13  Benihana (J11e 6-8-1)
Akishiki (Ms5w 8-7)         J14  Umigame (J14w 7-8)

Getayukata (J13w 6-9)       Ms1  Biloumaru (NR 9-6)
Papayasu (Ms4e 7-7-1)       Ms2  Oyama (J7w 2-13)
Joputosu (J14e 5-10)        Ms3  Profomisakari (Ms3w kosho)
Choshu-yuki (J12w 4-11)     Ms4  Gusoyama (Ms3e 6-8-1)
Takanorappa (Ms1e 5-4-6)    Ms5  Katoomaru (NR 7-8)
Hakunojo (Ms6w 4-10-1)      Ms6  Dan Koloff (Ms5e 3-12)
Tetsuba (J12e 0-0-15)       Ms7  Taiki (Ms7w kosho)
Toki (Ms8e kosho)           Ms8  Hidenotora (Ms7e 0-0-15)
Hisui (Ms9e kosho)          Ms9  Sherlockiama (Ms8w 0-0-15)
Netsuzakura (Ms10e kosho)   Ms10 BariiHachiBenson (Ms9w 0-0-15)
Doitsuyama (Ms11e kosho)    Ms11 -

[Asashosakari 18,787]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

(...) while Norizo only finished 8-7 for the second basho in a row. That has prompted me to address the still-open issue of what to do with the yokozuna retirement rules now that ozeki are being treated less leniently. More on that in a separate comment after this one.

To recap, these are the recently revised rules for ozeki:

On 11/03/2024 at 21:27, Asashosakari said:

Makekoshi = full demerit, 8-7 = half demerit, collecting two demerits in any form (including four straight 8-7's) = demotion.

If you have demerits tallied, any record of 9-6 or better will eliminate one point; if you were at 1.5, you'll still have 0.5 to clean up afterwards.

Previously, Toto used the standard "MK = kadoban, second MK = demotion, any 8-7 or better = clear" rule, except for tournaments in which the whole makuuchi division averaged 8.5 wins or more. That meant that ozeki somewhat frequently saved themselves from demotion with an 8-7 score that was actually below the divisional average, hence the new rule that counts 8 wins as half a makekoshi.

For yokozuna, the rule thus far has been this: Retirement is mandatory if they score three consecutive makekoshi, or four in a period of six tournaments. This is identical to what's in use for both Quad and Oracle, although it's been a lot more relevant for those since even top players will makekoshi much more easily there. Here in Toto it's been rather toothless and has never been called for, although our three pre-Kaito yokozuna came close a few times (I'll be listing these later on to demonstrate the potential impact of the new rules).

So, things need to get a bit harder - while still giving yokozuna-ranked players a little bit more protection than ozeki. And that will mean the following:

• Yokozuna will be subject to the same demerit counting as ozeki, meaning makekoshi = full demerit, 8-7 = half demerit. 
• 2.5 demerits in three consecutive basho = intai.
• 3.5 demerits in six consecutive basho = intai.
• 4.0 in seven / 4.5 in eight / etc. consecutive basho = intai.
• Unlike ozeki, yokozuna demerits cannot be cleared simply by posting 9-6 (or better) records, only by pushing the bad scores sufficiently far into the past.

Explanation: The standard rules for three and six basho windows have both been made slightly harder - effectively half a demerit tougher than before, which means 8-7's in between several makekoshi will now make the yokozuna's situation worse, not better, same as they do for ozeki. As before, exceptionally bad performances across three tournaments can still result in an immediate intai request, while slightly bad performances receive a longer grace period for improvement.

The extended rule for seven or more tournaments exists so that players cannot continually flirt with disaster, by e.g. having a string of results like this: MK, 8-7, 9-6, MK, 9-6, 8-7, MK. That's 3.0 demerits for basho 1-6 and also 3.0 for basho 2-7 (and never 2.5 in three), so technically not bad enough if only the 3/6 rules existed, but clearly against the spirit of the rules.

The thresholds for 6 or more tournaments effectively equate to "don't average worse than half a demerit per basho in the long run", which I think is a fair minimum expectation for yokozuna players.

As I gave advance notice all the way back in January, these rules apply retroactively to the results since Hatsu 2024, in line with the ozeki versions.

Even if a yokozuna fails to stay safe of those marks, I reserve the right to not request their intai in the following extenuating circumstances:

• There were exceptionally strong results in between the bad scores, or
• The same run of results would never have demoted an ozeki-ranked player along the way.

These exceptions are possibilities, not guarantees, and will be considered on a case-by-case basis if anything like that ever actually crops up.

I'll give a real-game example for situation 1 in a moment. The second scenario is one that was outright impossible under the old rules - 3 MK in three basho obviously demotes an ozeki after the second basho already, and a run of 4 MK in six basho always includes at least one case of back-to-back MK as well. With demerit limits of 3.5 in six basho etc. it's unlikely-but-possible to put up a run that never reaches the net 2.0 mark that would demote an ozeki. This isn't real sumo, and I do not wish to treat yokozuna players more harshly than they would be treated if they had never been promoted from ozeki to yokozuna in the first place.

(Overly detailed math note: There are 75 different ways to collect exactly 3.5 demerits in six tournaments. 15 of them constitute intai based on the last three results alone; of the other 60 cases, 6 will create the aforementioned awkward situation. Example: MK, 9, MK, 9, 8, MK.)

Lastly, a look at how previous situations would have unfolded, had the new rules been in place back then. Keep in mind that this is a "worst of the worst" curated sample of the results that Norizo, Susanoo and Pandaazuma have posted as our esteemed Seki-Toto yokozuna; the vast majority of the time they've been much better than this. (I'm including some of the good stuff for context anyway.)

Early in his run as yokozuna, Norizo posted this:

2013.05 Ye 7-8
2013.07 Ye 11-4
2013.09 Ye 7-8
2013.11 Ye 11-3-1 J
2014.01 Ye 13-2 Y
2014.03 Ye 6-9
2014.05 Ye 7-8
2014.07 Ye 12-3 Y
2014.09 Ye 8-7
2014.11 Ye 6-9
2015.01 Ye 9-6
2015.03 Ye 10-5
2015.05 Ye 10-5

That would have been a full 4 demerit points for the 7-basho stretch 2013.05 - 2014.05, as well as 3.5 for the 5-basho stretch 2014.03 - 2014.11. However, probably I would have shelved the intai request both times as there was a very recent yusho victory each time.

That exceptional treatment aside, in this stretch the following tournaments would have been make-or-break appearances for Norizo: 2014.05 (8 wins needed - failed), 2014.07 (9), 2014.09 (8), 2014.11 (8 - failed), 2015.01 (9), 2015.03 (9), 2015.05 (8). Under the old rules, only 2014.07 (possible third straight MK) and 2015.01 (possible fourth MK in six) were, both requiring 8 wins for safety as opposed to the 9 that the new rules would have needed.

A bit later, still Norizo:

2016.01 Ye 10-5
2016.03 Ye 10-4-1
2016.05 Ye 8-7
2016.07 Ye 8-7
2016.09 Ye 11-4
2016.11 Ye 5-10
2017.01 Ye 8-7
2017.03 Ye 9-6
2017.05 Ye 8-7
2017.07 Ye 9-6
2017.09 Ye 8-7
2017.11 Ye 11-4

Entering 2017.03, the previous five tournaments (2016.05 - 2017.01) totalled 2.5 demerits, so a makekoshi would have pushed it to 3.5 in 6 (as well as 2.5 in 3, incidentally). If that had happened, the intai recommendation would definitely have been made. 

Under the old rules this obviously wasn't an intai watch situation at any point in time, since only one actual makekoshi was scored alongside the many 8-7's.

In the almost seven years since, the only other time Norizo would have been at risk was in 2021.11, which he entered with previous scores of 7-8 and 8-7. Another makekoshi would have run afoul of the three-basho rule, but he scored 11-4.

Susanoo's comparatively short yokozuna tenure looked like this in total:

2018.11 Yw 6-9
2019.01 Yw 6-9
2019.03 Yw 9-6
2019.05 Yw 11-4 J
2019.07 Ye 5-10
2019.09 Yw 11-4
2019.11 Ye 9-6
2020.01 Y1w 9-5-1
2020.03 Y2e 11-4
2020.07 Y1e 13-2 D
2020.09 Y1w 7-8
2020.11 Y2e 10-5
2021.01 Y1e 7-8
2021.03 Y2e 7-8 -> voluntary intai

Obviously that produced an immediate threat of intai in the real 2019.03 as well, though with the difference that the old rules only required 8 wins there while the new ones would have asked for 9. (Susanoo collected his 9th win on senshuraku...)

2019.09 was a make-or-break basho as well, again with an old target of 8 and a new one of 9, and the new rules would have additionally required 8 wins for 2019.11.

Susanoo decided to retire of his own volition after 2021.03. Had he continued, the next tournament would again have called for 8 (old) / 9 (new) wins.

Pandaazuma, our most recent yokozuna before Kaito's ascent. Results from the start of his yokozuna tenure:

2020.01 Y2e 10-5
2020.03 Y1w 8-7
2020.07 Y2e 11-4
2020.09 Y2e 9-6
2020.11 Y1w 7-8
2021.01 Y2e 10-5
2021.03 Y1w 11-4
2021.05 Ye 10-5
2021.07 Ye 11-4 J
2021.09 Ye 8-7
2021.11 Ye 6-9
2022.01 Yw 6-9
2022.03 Yw 9-6
2022.05 Yw 6-9
2022.07 Yw 10-5
2022.09 Ye 12-3 D
2022.11 Ye 9-6

This stint would conceivably have been over sometime in 2022. The tournaments 2021.09 - 2022.01 totalled 2.5 demerits across those three basho. While a case for leniency might have been made based on the jun-yusho immediately before (it's less convincing than Norizo's two yusho though), the fact that 2021.09 - 2022.05 then also combined for 3.5 demerits in just 5 tournaments most likely would have meant thumbs down at that point.

At-risk tournaments in this period of time, assuming no earlier end: 2022.01 (8 wins needed - failed), 2022.03 (8), 2022.05 (8 - failed), 2022.07 (9), 2022.09 (9), 2022.11 (8).

Perhaps the best indication (sorry Simon!) that the new rules have a real potential to catch rather bad runs that the old ones did not. Under the old rules, 2022.03, 2022.07 and 2022.09 were on intai watch, with Pandaazuma narrowly avoiding the intai/restart scenario in the end.

So there you have it. After all these words, I suspect I've made it look more complicated than it really is. As stated before: Just don't bomb for three consecutive tournaments, and don't average worse than half a bad record each basho.

I do believe this whole arrangement puts both ozeki and yokozuna on a much fairer footing with the rest of the makuuchi-ranked players, who have suffered the wrath of the non-promoting (or even demoting) 8-7 for a long time. In the end, a bit more down/out volatility among the top two ranks will hopefully lead to more healthy sanyaku banzuke-making in general. Considering my rank movement guidelines are among the most dynamic ones out there, it always pains and annoys me when I'm unable to execute that in the joi-jin ranks.

Admittedly it's always sad to see a yokozuna tenure come to an end, even if we're just playing games here, but I hope I've made a convincing case that Seki-Toto needs these adjustments.

Last not least, I'll add that underperfoming yokozuna can always decide to follow Susanoo's example, of course. 

Edited July 15 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,787]

Seki-Quadrumvirate (play):

Quad's scores in Natsu were down significantly from the Haru heights, but the yusho line still reached respectable 12 wins, achieved by Kitakachiyama. Oddly enough, the distribution of records behind the winner matched those of Haru basho exactly, with three jun-yusho finishers one win behind and another sixpack of players two wins off. All in all the top division had fairly balanced results (303-292 = 50.9% wins, 22 KK and 19 MK), while the rest of the field trailed by almost exactly one win on average (259-326 = 44.3% wins, 11 KK and 30 MK).

Having freed themselves of all demotion concerns two months prior, the ozeki squad fell back to mostly average results. Ganzohnesushi posted an 8-7 score, having been in yusho contention through the first week at 7-1, while Jakusotsu and Norizo finished 7-8 to become soft kadoban again. Especially unfortunate for the latter whose Haru jun-yusho could have been a building block towards tsunatori. Fellow ozeki Kaito had that same thing happen four months earlier, when a Kyushu 2023 yusho was followed by makekoshi in January. He has since bounced back with two top 10 finishes (last time one of many among the ozeki, this basho the only one), both two wins behind the respective champion, which could prove vital in case his Nagoya result is extremely good.

Last not least, Golynohana's retirement meant the departure of an active ozeki in Quad as well. His spot is not being refilled immediately, but both Natsu sekiwake have built a strong case towards Nagoya: Kobashi has now scored 8/8/10 wins since getting demoted from ozeki, while Oskanohana has produced the rather hard-luck string of M1w 10-5 D / Ke 10-5 J / S1w 7-8 / M1w 11-4 J / Sw 10-5. If only that middle score had been a kachikoshi...

Nevertheless, they are joined at the third-highest rank by two more players. Unkonoyama deservedly moves up from komusubi with his second straight 10-5 record, while the fourth slot is taken by yusho winner Kitakachiyama, up from M3e. Two other komusubi finished 8-7 to retain the rank, and they too are accompanied by two promotees, Flohru and chishafuwaku.

If you're not scoring along at home: This means the Nagoya banzuke has 4 ozeki, 4 sekiwake and 4 komusubi. This well-balanced arrangement has only been seen twice before, all the way back in 2011 (Hatsu and Aki).

Despite the balanced W-L totals and slight preponderance of KK records, the makuuchi re-ranking ran into some trouble after M9e with very few further kachikoshi to assign (it didn't help that all of juryo only had four...), so the promotions got large, the demotions got small, and even all 7-8 players got to move up slightly from that point forward. I doubt anyone will be complaining, of course.

Kaito (O2e 10-5)               O1   Ganzohnesushi (O2w 8-7)
Norizo (O1e 7-8)               O2   Jakusotsu (O1w 7-8)
Kobashi (Se 10-5)              S1   Oskahanada (Sw 10-5)
Unkonoyama (K2w 10-5)          S2   Kitakachiyama (M3e 12-3 Y)
ScreechingOwl (K1w 8-7)        K1   Athenayama (K2e 8-7)
Flohru (M1e 9-6)               K2   chishafuwaku (M1w 9-6)

Susanoo (M2w 8-7)              M1   Kashunowaka (M7w 10-5)
Choshu-yuki (M7e 9-6)          M2   Achiyama (M13e 11-4)
Oortael (M6e 8-7)              M3   Andrasoyama (K1e 5-10)
Bill (M6w 8-7)                 M4   Kamibaka (M15e 11-4)
Pandaazuma (M3w 7-8)           M5   Kishikaisei (M8e 8-6-1)
Konosato (M5w 7-8)             M6   Mariohana (M10e 8-6-1)
GONZABUROW (M2e 5-10)          M7   DeRosa (M12w 9-5-1)
Andoreasu (M11w 8-6-1)         M8   joaoiyama (M4e 5-10)
Asapedroryu (M9e 7-8)          M9   Chocshoporyu (M4w 4-10-1)
Kotononami (M5e 4-11)          M10  Sakura (M10w kosho)
Balon (M15w 8-7)               M11  BlackPinkMawashi (J2w 9-6)
Hironoumi (J9e 11-3-1)         M12  Asashosakari (M13w 7-8)
Kaiowaka (M9w 5-10)            M13  Kuroimori (M14w 7-7-1)
Gansekiiwa (M8w 4-10-1)        M14  Frinkanohana (M11e 5-10)
Kintamayama (M12e 5-10)        M15  Gernobono (J8e 9-6)

Kyodaitimu (J2e 7-8)           J1   Metzinowaka (M14e 5-10)
Gusoyama (J8w 8-6-1)           J2   Kajiyanosho (J1e 6-9)
TochiYESshin (J4w 7-8)         J3   Getayukata (M16e 5-10)
Bunbukuchagama (J6e 7-8)       J4   Papayasu (J1w 5-10)
Hakase (J4e 6-9)               J5   Ketsukai (J3e 5-10)
Oyama (J5w 6-9)                J6   Andonishiki (J3w 5-10)
Saruyama (J6w 6-8-1)           J7   Kakushoyama (Ms6w 10-5)
KonyaGaYamada (Ms4e 9-6)       J8   Kasamatsuri (Ms1e 8-6-1)
Fujisan (J7e 5-8-2)            J9   Hakushin (J9w kosho)
Rowitoro (Ms4w 8-7)            J10  Nantonoyama (J10w 6-7-2)
Beeftank (J13w 7-8)            J11  Hisui (Ms8w 9-6)
Doreikishi (J14w 7-8)          J12  Jejima (J5e 3-11-1)
reeeen (J7w 4-11)              J13  Chankoyama (J11w 5-10)
Anjoboshi (J12e 5-8-2)         J14  Hogashi (J12w 5-10)

Netsuzakura (Ms9w 8-6-1)       Ms1  Holleshoryu (Ms1w kosho)
Profomisakari (Ms2e kosho)     Ms2  Unagiyutaka (J13e 5-9-1)
Terarno (J11e 4-11)            Ms3  itchynotoe (Ms5w 7-8)
lonewolf (NR 8-7)              Ms4  Sukubidubidu (J10e 3-9-3)
Chibiyama (Ms5e kosho)         Ms5  Ruziklao (J14e 4-11)
Hakunojo (Ms6e 6-8-1)          Ms6  Joputosu (Ms9e 7-8)
WAKATAKE (Ms7e kosho)          Ms7  Takanorappa (Ms2w 4-5-6)
Warusaru (Ms8e 6-9)            Ms8  Terukaze (NR 7-7-1)
Furanohana (Ms3w 2-7-6)        Ms9  Tetsuba (Ms3e 0-0-15)
bariihachibenson (Ms10e kosho) Ms10 Hidenotora (Ms7w 0-0-15)
Thorn of Queens (Ms11e kosho)  Ms11 -

[Asashosakari 18,787]

(I still owe this one...)

Seki-Oracle (play):

Another basho with a questionably prepared yokozuna allowed for risk-taking picks again and quite a few people did go for low-win choices on Terunofuji, though two players stood out from the pack: Low maegashira (and former ozeki) Gansekiiwa came away with the yusho, but just two points behind - and nine ahead of third place: Ozeki Kaito. Unsurprisingly that result converted to a 15-0 record...again. Back-to-back zensho scores and a yusho + jun-yusho made for one of the easiest promotion calls ever in Seki-Oracle, so congratulations to the game's 11th yokozuna!

We're back to two yokozuna on the banzuke with that, but it's a very young duo compared to the past; senior yokozuna Oskahanada has been at the rank for less than two years. (With fine results to date, to his credit.) Rather different to previous times when Norizo and Pandaazuma reigned for 10 and 7 years respectively, seeing several other yokozuna come and go. But perhaps we're at the start of a new dynasty?

One step down at the ozeki rank, we were hit by Golynohana's retirement in this game as well, while Andoreasu achieved just a minimum kachikoshi. That would have left him as the sole remaining ozeki - if not for chishafuwaku, who had been demoted to sekiwake on the Natsu banzuke, but bounced back in style with a 3rd place finish to secure his immediate return to the second-highest position. Well done!

One further promotion case was briefly considered, that of Beeftank:

2024.01 M3e 8-7 (19th-24th place)
2024.03 M2w 15-0 (3rd-4th place)
2024.05 S1e 9-6 (9th-11th place)

That's 32 joi wins which has been sufficient for promotion at times, but in Oracle I'm looking at other metrics as well and unfortunately this run has fallen short of pretty much all of them, most importantly the rank sum of the three tournament results which came in at 35 here and normally is expected to be under 20 for a successful run. The Haru and Natsu results form an excellent basis for Nagoya, though.

Natsu basho started with a total of seven sekiwake and komusubi, but besides chishafuwaku and Beeftank everybody else went makekoshi, so lots of space opened up. At least in theory; in practice it turned out difficult just to fill out the minimum 2+2 places. ScreechingOwl, who finished tied for 4th place and had 10 converted wins, earned a deserved jump from M1e straight to sekiwake. The komusubi spots went to yusho winner Gansekiiwa, up directly from M11, and very lucky joi 8-7 Susanoo.

And just like that, the first Oracle sanyaku ever with 2 players at every rank, and I believe also the first banzuke ever with just 8 sanyaku in total.

Lastly, about the Haru results and Natsu banzuke I wrote the following:

Quote

In general both the upper and lower makuuchi player groups scored in similar fashion this basho, which meant there was no room for the leniency usually shown to joi-jin makekoshi.

The exact same is true here again, although the elimination of three sanyaku spots has made things look even worse. (They're not really.)

Oskahanada (Ye 8-7)         Y    Kaito (O1e 15-0)
Andoreasu (O2w 8-7)         O    chishafuwaku (S2w 10-5)
Beeftank (S1e 9-6)          S    ScreechingOwl (M1e 10-5)
Gansekiiwa (M11e 12-3 Y)    K    Susanoo (M3e 8-7)

Choshu-yuki (K1w 7-8)       M1   Kishikaisei (K2e 7-8)
Asashosakari (S2e 6-9)      M2   Norizo (M6e 9-6)
itchynotoe (M4w 8-7)        M3   Flohru (S1w 5-10)
TochiYESshin (M1w 7-8)      M4   joaoiyama (M2e 7-8)
Unkonoyama (M3w kosho)      M5   Papayasu (M2w 7-8)
Kobashi (K1e 5-10)          M6   Pitinosato (M6w 8-7)
Kitakachiyama (M7e 8-7)     M7   Kotononami (M9e 8-7)
Bill (M11w 8-7)             M8   Pandaazuma (M14w 9-6)
BlackPinkMawashi (M12w 8-7) M9   Bunbukuchagama (M15w 9-6)
Ganzohnesushi (M5e 5-10)    M10  Torafujii (M5w 5-10)
DeRosa (M4e 4-11)           M11  Athenayama (M8e 7-8)
Konosato (M8w 7-8)          M12  Oshirokita (M9w 6-9)
GONZABUROW (M7w 5-10)       M13  Balon (M10e 6-9)
Sakura (M13w kosho)         M14  Sukubidubidu (M14e 7-8)
Oortael (M12e 6-9)          M15  Frinkanohana (M10w 5-10)
Kirinoumi (M13e 6-9)        M16  Andrasoyama (J5e 11-4)
Joputosu (J1e 9-6)          M17  Shatsume (J2e 9-6)

Mariohana (J1w 8-7)         J1   Yarimotsu (M16e 7-8)
Wamahada (J2w 8-7)          J2   Profomisakari (J3e 8-7)
Hisui (J7w 10-5)            J3   Kakushoyama (J11e 11-4)
Saruyama (J3w 7-8)          J4   Kaiowaka (J10e 9-6)
Hakase (J4e 7-8)            J5   Takanorappa (J5w kosho)
Ruziklao (J4w 7-8)          J6   Warusaru (J12w 9-6)
Andonishiki (J7e 7-8)       J7   Kintamayama (NR 9-6)
Hakunojo (J10w 7-8)         J8   Gusoyama (Ms1w 8-7)
Holleshoryu (J9e kosho)     J9   Asapedroryu (NR 8-7)
Terukaze (NR 8-7)           J10  Doreikishi (J8e 5-10)
Metzinowaka (J6e 4-11)      J11  Kajiyanosho (J6w 4-11)
Tetsuba (M15e 0-0-15)       J12  Anjoboshi (J11w 6-9)
Fujisan (J8w 2-13)          J13  bariihachibenson (J13w kosho)
WAKATAKE (J14e kosho)       J14  Terarno (J9w 2-13)

lonewolf (NR 5-10)          Ms1  reeeen (J14w 4-11)
yosouou (Ms2e kosho)        Ms2  Kasamatsuri (J12e 2-13)
Mmikasazuma2 (J13e 0-0-15)  Ms3  -

BTW, in case anyone was wondering about the full list of Oracle yokozuna (for reference, the game started in Aki 2002):

Gachinco     2005.07 - 2008.09
Ekigozan     2009.07 - 2012.09
Doitsuyama   2011.11 - 2015.01
Norizo       2013.07 - 2023.07
Andoreasu    2014.01 - 2016.09
Hironoumi    2014.07 - 2016.01
Pandaazuma   2016.05 - 2023.09
Choshu-yuki  2018.11 - 2022.01
Gurowake     2019.07 - 2019.11
Oskahanada   2022.09 - ongoing
Kaito        2024.07 - ongoing

Gachinco was the only yokozuna who declared his intai voluntarily after a few bad results, everybody else rode things out until the rule-based hammer came down on them.

Edited July 21 by Asashosakari

[Oskanohana 227]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

BTW, in case anyone was wondering about the full list of Oracle yokozuna (for reference, the game started in Aki 2002):

Gachinco     2005.07 - 2008.09
Ekigozan     2009.07 - 2012.09
Doitsuyama   2011.11 - 2015.01
Norizo       2013.07 - 2023.07
Andoreasu    2014.01 - 2016.09
Hironoumi    2014.07 - 2016.01
Pandaazuma   2016.05 - 2023.09
Choshu-yuki  2018.11 - 2022.01
Gurowake     2019.07 - 2019.11
Oskahanada   2022.09 - ongoing
Kaito        2024.07 - ongoing

Gachinco was the only yokozuna who declared his intai voluntarily after a few bad results, everybody else rode things out until the rule-based hammer came down on them.

It's astounding the utter lack of hinkaku among some of the greatest names in sumo gaming history. Life was better in the good old days where people had some sense of dignity and were able to step down by themselves. I'd be absolutely appalled if I got promoted to yokozuna and got even a single make-koshi.

I thoroughly enjoy these reports @Asashosakari. Even the minutia, especially the minutia. Keep'em coming.