Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2024

[Asashosakari 18,928]

Welcome to the penultimate LKS of the year! Here's your ballot for Aki basho:

 1. Hoshoryu       16  [score?]
 2. Kotozakura     15  [score?]
 3. Daiseizan      10
 4. Wakaikari       9*
 5. Onosato         8* [score?]
 6. Hiradoumi       5  [score?]
 7. Kotoshoho       5
 8. Wakatakakage    5
 9. Onokatsu        5*
10. Aonishiki       5*
11. Higonoumi       5
12. Abi             4  [score?]
13. Fujiseiun       4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 8 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (6 'veterans' + 2 newcomers), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 21. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu W-L
 2. Kotozakura W-L
 3. Daiseizan KKMK
 4. Wakaikari KKMK
 5. Onosato W-L
 6. Hiradoumi W-L
 7. Kotoshoho KKMK
 8. Wakatakakage KKMK
 9. Onokatsu KKMK
10. Aonishiki KKMK
11. Higonoumi KKMK
12. Abi W-L
13. Fujiseiun KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

Edited September 5 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 3,978]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

Do you have information on the most KKs from debut?  The two sekitori I remember reading somewhere as having very long KK streaks, probably in relationship to Hakuho's, whose started when he was Ozeki, are Kitanoumi and Musashimaru, and they both had lower division MKs.  Ichinojo also made Sekiwake without a career MK and even got one KK there, but faltered the next tournament; Onosato's streak is already longer than his considering he took longer to get to Sekiwake.  There hasn't been anyone else recently that I'm aware of that's done that (make Sekiwake without an MK).  The record might be a lower division guy who put up a bunch of 4-3s starting from lower in the banzuke than Wakaikari started his current streak of minimal KKs.

[Athenayama 996]

 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 10-5
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[Fashiritētā 169]

 1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 10-5
 6. Hiradoumi 10-5
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 13

Edited September 5 by Fashiritētā

[Profomisakari 841]

 1. Hoshoryu                11
 2. Kotozakura            12
 3. Daiseizan                K K
 4. Wakaikari               MK
 5. Onosato                  12
 6. Hiradoumi              7
 7. Kotoshoho             KK
 8. Wakatakakage       KK
 9. Onokatsu                KK
10. Aonishiki               KK
11. Higonoumi            KK
12. Abi                          10
13. Fujiseiun                KK

TB 14

 

[Yarimotsu 543]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 10-5
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 6-9
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 13

[Hakuryuho 334]

 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 7-8
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[Holleshoryu 15]

1 hoshoryu 9-6

2 kotozakura 13-2

3 daiseizan kk

4 wakaikari kk

5 onosato 9-6

6 hiradoumi 8-7

7 kotoshoho kk

8 wakatakakage kk

9 onokatsu kk

10 aonishiki kk

11 higonoumi mk

12 abi 8-7

13 fujiseiun kk

tb 13

 

[WAKATAKE 2,637]

 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 13-2
 3. Daiseizan MK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato MK
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu MK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 12-3
13. Fujiseiun MK

TB 13

[Oskanohana 233]

 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 11-4
 6. Hiradoumi MK
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[Jejima 1,339]

1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 8-7
 6. Hiradoumi 8-7
 7. Kotoshoho KK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 16

[ryafuji 810]

On 05/09/2024 at 15:36, Gurowake said:

Do you have information on the most KKs from debut?  The two sekitori I remember reading somewhere as having very long KK streaks, probably in relationship to Hakuho's, whose started when he was Ozeki, are Kitanoumi and Musashimaru, and they both had lower division MKs.  Ichinojo also made Sekiwake without a career MK and even got one KK there, but faltered the next tournament; Onosato's streak is already longer than his considering he took longer to get to Sekiwake.  There hasn't been anyone else recently that I'm aware of that's done that (make Sekiwake without an MK).  The record might be a lower division guy who put up a bunch of 4-3s starting from lower in the banzuke than Wakaikari started his current streak of minimal KKs.

Akebono's KK streak from sumo entry was a notable one - he made it all the way from jonokuchi to sekiwake before he finally had a makekoshi, a 7-8. That was the only losing record (discounting kyujo) in his career.

Edited September 7 by ryafuji

[ryafuji 810]

 1. Hoshoryu 12-3
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 13-2
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 8-7
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 15

Edited September 7 by ryafuji

[Sakura 1,479]

On 05/09/2024 at 13:04, Asashosakari said:

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari KK
 5. Onosato 9-6
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi MK
12. Abi 9-6
13. Fujiseiun MK

TB 14

-----

Good luck!

 

[Bunbukuchagama 696]

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 9-6
 3. Daiseizan KK
 4. Wakaikari MK
 5. Onosato 13-2
 6. Hiradoumi 9-6
 7. Kotoshoho MK
 8. Wakatakakage KK
 9. Onokatsu KK
10. Aonishiki KK
11. Higonoumi KK
12. Abi 6-9
13. Fujiseiun KK

TB 14

[chishafuwaku 470]

1. Hoshoryu               9
 2. Kotozakura          10
 3. Daiseizan                             MK
 4. Wakaikari                             MK
 5. Onosato               10
 6. Hiradoumi              9
 7. Kotoshoho                           MK
 8. Wakatakakage             KK
 9. Onokatsu                      KK
10. Aonishiki                      KK
11. Higonoumi                          MK
12. Abi                          8
13. Fujiseiun                       KK

TB 12

[Asashosakari 18,928]

10 Hoshoryu
10 Kotozakura
+ Daiseizan
+ Wakaikari
12 Onosato
9 Hiradoumi
- Kotoshoho
+ Wakatakakage
+ Onokatsu
+ Aonishiki
- Higonoumi
8 Abi
+ Fujiseiun

TB 13

[Asashosakari 18,928]

As the basho enters the final...wait, that was last week. Here are the LKS Aki 2024 selection stats as we relive some of the tournament action!

Player	Hosho		K'zakura		Daisei	W'ikari	Onosato		Hira		K'sho	W'kage	Onok	Aoni	Higo	Abi		Fuji	TB	Cons
Athenayama	+	10-5	+	11-4	+	+	-	10-5	-	8-7	-	+	+	+	+	+	8-7	+	14	1.25
Fashiritētā	-	9-6	+	11-4	+	+	-	10-5	+	10-5	-	+	+	+	-	+	8-7	+	13	1.25
Profomisakari	+	11-4	+	12-3	+	-	+	12-3	-	MK	+	+	+	+	+	+	10-5	+	14	1.60
Yarimotsu	+	10-5	-	8-7	+	+	-	10-5	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	-	-	MK	+	13	1.31
Hakuryuho	+	10-5	+	11-4	+	+	+	11-4	-	8-7	-	+	+	+	+	-	MK	+	14	1.51
Holleshoryu	-	9-6	+	13-2	+	+	-	9-6	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	-	+	8-7	+	13	1.46
WAKATAKE	+	11-4	+	13-2	-	-	-	MK	-	8-7	-	+	-	+	-	+	12-3	-	13	1.96
Oskanohana	+	11-4	-	10-5	+	+	+	11-4	-	MK	-	+	+	+	-	+	8-7	+	14	1.13
Jejima	-	8-7	-	8-7	+	+	-	8-7	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	+	8-7	+	16	1.51
ryafuji	+	12-3	-	10-5	+	-	+	13-2	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	-	+	8-7	+	15	1.25
Sakura	-	8-7	-	8-7	+	+	-	9-6	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	-	+	9-6	-	14	1.46
Bunbukuchagama	+	11-4	-	9-6	+	-	+	13-2	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	+	-	MK	+	14	1.56
chishafuwaku	-	9-6	-	10-5	-	-	-	10-5	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	-	+	8-7	+	12	1.56
Asashosakari	+	10-5	-	10-5	+	+	+	12-3	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	-	+	8-7	+	13	1.13
	9:5		6:8		12:2	9:5	6:8		7:7		3:11	14:0	13:1	14:0	5:9	11:3		12:2
Results	- (KK)		- (KK)		-	+	+		- (MK)		-	+	-	+	-	- (MK)		-

A short ballot became even shorter with everybody predicting kachikoshi for Wakatakakage and Aonishiki, but the broad agreement didn't end there. Three other slots featured only one or two thumbs down, with WAKATAKE present for all of them, and two more saw just three picks against the majority, so more than half the ballot was on the lopsided end of the spectrum.

We had to find median target records for no less than five sanyaku members this time, and it wasn't straight-forward. Both ozeki Hoshoryu and ballot returnee sekiwake Abi (most recently part of the game in Nagoya 2023) ended up with prediction slates that did not allow for a clear choice, so as usual the combined tie-breaker entries were used to break these ties as well: With an even-numbered total of 192, both rikishi also received an even-numbered win target. For Hoshoryu that meant 10-5 (9:5 choices) rather than 11-4 (5:9), while Abi received a simple target of 8-7 (11:3) over 9-6 (3:11). Spoiler: In both cases the players occupying the contested middle ground would have been better off with the alternative targets.

Setting things up for the other three sanyaku rikishi was much easier thanks to almost evenly-split picks. Ozeki Kotozakura and would-be ozeki Onosato collected nearly identical choices (not by each individual player, but in total) and ended up with matching 11-4 targets and 6 players picking the high side, and komusubi Hiradoumi had exactly 50% support for at least a 9-6 score.

With so many rikishi having strong support in one direction or the other, it's not surprising that the individual player agreement was also strong. Asashosakari joined forces twice, with Oskanohana and ryafuji, to produce entries that only differed on one slot (Hiradoumi and Wakaikari, respectively), while the lowest level of agreement was very high for such a short ballot, with various pairs of players having 5 picks in common. The overall most unusual entry was once again provided by WAKATAKE, putting almost as much distance between himself and the second-most unusual lineup by Profomisakari, as there is between Profomisakari and the entire rest of the field down to the most average lineups by Asashosakari and Oskanohana.

Nearly all tie-breaker picks were placed on either 13 or 14, complemented only by single outliers at 12, 15 and 16.

[Asashosakari 18,928]

Day 7

Away from the ballot, an early start into both competitive directions: Collegiate rookie Kyokukaiyu has yet to hit his personal wall and started into Aki basho with four straight wins for his fifth kachikoshi. 32-year-old veteran Hamadayama, once upon a time cursed with a 10-MK streak, had amassed four consecutive kachikoshi for the second time in his career, but this run of success came to a screeching halt with an 0-4 start this time.

Day 8

And the earliest possible appearance by a sekitori as well, courtesy of Onosato starting off his ozeki promotion challenge with 8 wins on the trot. No points yet, of course, the 11-4 target was still some wins away.

Day 9

The first score of the basho was provided by Aonishiki with his never-in-doubt sixth straight KK. As everybody had predicted that, one point on the standings but no point actually posting those standings.

In other news, two more off-ballot hopefuls saw an early end of their quest for a fifth kachikoshi, with Tokinohira and Taniguchi makekoshi at 1-4.

Day 10

And finally some results setting players apart from one another. Not the first outcome of the day, though, which was the other unanimous KK pick Wakatakakage doing what he was expected to do. However, that was followed up by sekiwake Abi staging an early exit from the race for kachikoshi, falling to 2-8.

As the target record selection procedure had only given three players the downside of that Abi target, we're starting off with just that trio as our first proper leaders.

Day 10: 3/13 Decisions, TB 4-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Yarimotsu	3	13
2	Bunbukuchagama	3	14
2	Hakuryuho	3	14
4	chishafuwaku	2	12
5	Asashosakari	2	13
5	Fashiritētā	2	13
5	Holleshoryu	2	13
5	WAKATAKE	2	13
9	Athenayama	2	14
9	Oskanohana	2	14
9	Profomisakari	2	14
9	Sakura	2	14
13	ryafuji	2	15
14	Jejima	2	16

 

[Asashosakari 18,928]

Day 11

Onosato didn't waste any time from his nakabi KK to clinching his LKS target record and did so still unbeaten for the tournament; good news for the players who trusted him to get at least 11 wins.

Two off-ballot rikishi successfully filled out their application for the Kyushu edition of the game, with former sekitori Kaisho and youngster Kanazawa securing KK #5.

The leading group shrunk from three names to two.

Day 11: 4/13 Decisions, TB 6-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	4	14
1	Hakuryuho	4	14
3	Asashosakari	3	13
3	Yarimotsu	3	13
5	Oskanohana	3	14
5	Profomisakari	3	14
7	ryafuji	3	15
8	chishafuwaku	2	12
9	Fashiritētā	2	13
9	Holleshoryu	2	13
9	WAKATAKE	2	13
12	Athenayama	2	14
12	Sakura	2	14
14	Jejima	2	16

 

[Asashosakari 18,928]

Day 12

A less than great tournament by the ozeki duo concluded early at least in LKS terms after Kotozakura and Hoshoryu picked up their 5th and 6th loss, respectively, to miss out on their 11-4 / 10-5 targets. Earlier in makuuchi, top division rookie Onokatsu fell to makekoshi, a result only anticipated by one entrant.

The lone bright spot of the day was provided by 25-year-old Obara scoring his ballot-clinching fifth kachikoshi as he makes his first serious push towards salaried status.

Just three players left Day 12 with two points in hand, but all of them had been part of the bottom group of the Day 11 standings. Consequently a single point was enough for one of yesterday's leaders to break the tie and become the first sole frontrunner of the basho.

Day 12: 7/13 Decisions, TB 7-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	5	14
2	chishafuwaku	4	12
3	Asashosakari	4	13
3	Yarimotsu	4	13
5	Hakuryuho	4	14
5	Oskanohana	4	14
5	Sakura	4	14
8	ryafuji	4	15
9	Jejima	4	16
10	Fashiritētā	3	13
10	Holleshoryu	3	13
10	WAKATAKE	3	13
13	Profomisakari	3	14
14	Athenayama	2	14

 

[Asashosakari 18,928]

At this point we're down to 6 slots that have yet to be scored, but the list of possible yusho winners has not been significantly whittled down: Only four players are out of the running, with Athenayama and Fashiritētā completely unable to finish tied for the lead, and Profomisakari and Yarimotsu losing all possible tie-breakers if they do tie.

A particularly wacky scenario could see no less than eight (!) players tied atop the standings.

[Asashosakari 18,928]

Day 13

Only one scoring result as we enter the basho home stretch: Komusubi Hiradoumi fell to his seventh loss and out of contention for his 9-6 target record. 7 players were able to celebrate the outcome, but Asashosakari's yusho hopes as well as Yarimotsu's shot at a yusho-doten went kapoof with that result.

Meanwhile, the off-ballot action concluded with another makekoshi, this one for Ajigawa first-year rikishi Anhibiki who narrowly fell short of opening his career with five straight KK.

The Day 12 leader did not make the correct Hiradoumi choice and consequently received company again.

Day 13: 8/13 Decisions, TB 7-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	5	14
1	Hakuryuho	5	14
1	Oskanohana	5	14
4	Jejima	5	16
5	chishafuwaku	4	12
6	Asashosakari	4	13
6	Holleshoryu	4	13
6	WAKATAKE	4	13
6	Yarimotsu	4	13
10	Profomisakari	4	14
10	Sakura	4	14
12	ryafuji	4	15
13	Fashiritētā	3	13
14	Athenayama	3	14

 

[Sakura 1,479]

Well, at least I can take comfort in the fact that I predicted the scores of the Ozeki correctly.

[Asashosakari 18,928]

Day 14

The day opened with a KK/MK decider for one of our two remaining unsalaried rikishi, and Higonoumi proved unable to extend his KK streak to six tournaments. Hakuryuho dropped out of the race for the final lead entirely, and former sole leader Bunbukuchagama was reduced to battling for yusho-doten after many of his pathways to the title had already been eliminated by the previous day's Hiradoumi result.

A sekitori concluded his LKS performance later in the day when Kotoshoho also dropped to makekoshi. Holleshoryu and Jejima were no longer able to finish in the lead at all after this, and Profomisakari lost his doten hopes.

And finally, two sanyaku-ranked rikishi whose LKS fortunes had already taken a negative turn also decided their KK fates; ozeki Kotozakura ensured his continued presence on the ballot while komusubi Hiradoumi fell to makekoshi.

The penultimate standings feature a new sole leader:

Day 14: 10/13 Decisions, TB 8-12
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Oskanohana	7	14
2	chishafuwaku	6	12
3	Asashosakari	6	13
3	Bunbukuchagama	6	14
3	Hakuryuho	6	14
3	ryafuji	6	15
3	Sakura	6	14
3	WAKATAKE	6	13
3	Yarimotsu	6	13
10	Fashiritētā	5	13
10	Holleshoryu	5	13
10	Jejima	5	16
13	Athenayama	4	14
13	Profomisakari	4	14

I'm not sure we've ever entered a senshuraku with five players still capable of winning the yusho, but that's what we have here. Nevertheless, the scenarios have simplified significantly because the TB picks have been taken out of the running; only chishafuwaku can still possibly hit with his TB pick of 12, but even he would rather not because his route to the yusho involves two more rikishi going makekoshi.

All three decisions still to come are set to take place in juryo action: First up is Wakaikari (3-3) visiting from makushita as he tries to secure his sekitori debut against Oshoumi (6-8). Fujiseiun (7-7) follows against Shiden (6-8) a bit later and things conclude with the next match featuring Daiseizan (7-7) versus Hidenoumi (5-9).

What possible outcomes are we looking at?

• If Fujiseiun falls to MK, then
  • Sakura will win the yusho if at least one of the others gets KK; she would defeat between one and four tied players on brackets thanks to her Hoshoryu selection; or
  • WAKATAKE will win the yusho outright if the other two both go MK.
• If Fujiseiun gets his KK, then
  • Oskanohana will win the yusho outright if Wakaikari also has a KK; Daiseizan's result would be irrelevant; or
  • if Wakaikari finishes MK, then
    • ryafuji will win the yusho with a Daiseizan KK, defeating Bunbukuchagama and Oskanohana in a lengthy bracket playoff (down to slot 11!); or
    • chishafuwaku will win the yusho outright with a Daiseizan MK.

A lot turns on choices that were decidedly non-mainstream: chishafuwaku and WAKATAKE were the only ones to predict a makekoshi for Daiseizan, Sakura and again WAKATAKE did so for Fujiseiun.