Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024

[Reonito 1,336]

So with the six expected promotions announced, and no unconventional ones, it's presumably between Asanoyama and Oshoumi, and based on recent precedent, very likely the latter.

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

So with the six expected promotions announced, and no unconventional ones, it's presumably between Asanoyama and Oshoumi, and based on recent precedent, very likely the latter.

Based on the precedent they set last basho, I can see them keeping Oshoumi and dropping Asanoyama instead

[Reonito 1,336]

22 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Based on the precedent they set last basho, I can see them keeping Oshoumi and dropping Asanoyama instead

We're agreeing ... my wording wasn't clear I realize but I meant it's between the two of them for whom to keep

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

We're agreeing ... my wording wasn't clear I realize but I meant it's between the two of them for whom to keep

Yes 

[Sumo Spiffy 537]

At least in this case they can point to the fact there's really no good alternative. Except the makushita champ who was a whole one rank too low, but, hey.

[I am the Yokozuna 187]

We would never know what they would have done in case they were not those two additional retirements in terms of who would have been demoted. The two additional retirements feel like a kind of a helping hand not to be forced into making any decision. 

[Asashosakari 18,804]

Guessing time...

Asakoryu (J8e 11-4)       J1   Kinbozan (M12w 4-11)
Kagayaki (M11w 3-12)      J2   Hakuoho (J5w 8-7)
Shirokuma (M16e 4-9-2)    J3   Tamashoho (J3e 6-9) 
Kayo (J14e 11-4)          J4   Shimanoumi (J4e 6-9)
Shimazuumi (J4w 6-9)      J5   Tomokaze (J11e 9-6)
Tohakuryu (J10e 8-7)      J6   Shiden (J6w 7-8)
Hidenoumi (J6e 6-9)       J7   Tsurugisho (J7e 6-8-1)
Mitoryu (J7w 6-7-2)       J8   Hakuyozan (J8w 7-8)
Daiamami (J5e 4-11)       J9   Daishoho (J9e 6-9)
Onosho (J1w 1-4-10)       J10  Fujiseiun (J10w 7-8)
Aonishiki (Ms4w 6-1)      J11  Tochitaikai (Ms1e 4-3)
Daiseizan (J12e 7-8)      J12  Chiyomaru (Ms3w 5-2)
Wakaikari (Ms2w 4-3)      J13  Kotoeiho (Ms5w 5-2)
Nabatame (Ms4e 4-3)       J14  Oshoumi (J14w 6-9)

Yeah, I'm expecting Oshoumi now.

Maybe one of these days they'll decide to go whole hog and dispense with the "can't promote on makekoshi" stuff, too. By the numbers every single 7-8 deserved to be promoted, so they might as well do it... But that pipe dream aside, the lower half essentially seems to write itself here this time, with at most some doubt about the order of the two J9's and the two J11's.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a juryo division banzuke before where all KK scores from the previous basho were exhausted by J6e. Moving on...

Hatsuyama (Ms16e 7-0 Y)   Ms1  Asanoyama (J3w 0-0-15)
Kiryuko (J12w 4-11)       Ms2  Miyagi (Ms13w 6-1)
Kamito (Ms9w 5-2)         Ms3  Kaisho (Ms6w 4-3)
Kotokuzan (Ms7e 4-3)      Ms4  Obara (Ms7w 4-3)
Akua (Ms2e 3-4)           Ms5  Asahakuryu (Ms12e 5-2)

Asahakuryu benefits from Aoiyama's timely retirement. I'm not very confident about the relative order of anybody here, but this is what makes the most sense to me. The 10 rikishi as a whole should be accurate (the Oshoumi/Asanoyama issue aside).

Kazekeno (Ms14e 5-2)      Ms6  Kurohimeyama (Ms24e 6-1)
Wakanosho (Ms12w 4-3)     Ms7  Toshunryu (Ms13e 4-3)
Kusano (Ms17w 5-2)        Ms8  Daishomaru (Ms5e 3-4)
Satorufuji (Ms1w 2-5)     Ms9  Kyokukaiyu (Ms28w 6-1)
Yoshii (Ms15e 4-3)        Ms10 Dewanoryu (Ms3e 2-5)
Hitoshi (Ms6e 3-4)        Ms11 Chiyosakae (J13w 0-4-11)
Chiyotora (Ms21e 5-2)     Ms12 Kaiseijo (Ms21w 5-2)
Tenshoho (Ms22w 5-2)      Ms13 Otsuji (Ms8e 3-4)
Kitadaichi (Ms8w 3-4)     Ms14 Chiyonoo (Ms19w 4-3)

I wanted to put the two 6-1's lower initially because these are overpromotions and typically the 6-1 records are the most likely to end up with relatively fixed promotion jumps while the treatment of the lower scores is more flexible, but it really didn't make sense on value grounds to have them behind Wakanosho et al. / Yoshii et al..

Nevertheless, especially the three joi makekoshi by Daishomaru, Satorufuji and Dewanoryu might be getting treated much more leniently than I have them here. Chiyosakae could end up somewhere else entirely, recent "active" 0-win records from low juryo have been tagged with anything from 11 to 14 ranks as their demotions.

If you're missing Ms15 above, it's because there's really nobody that deserves to go up that far so I wanted to talk about it separately. Here are the theoretical candidates, listing two per win tier:

Kotokenryu (Ms9e 2-5)
Tsushimanada (Ms10e 2-5)

Nishinoryu (Ms11w 3-4)
Mineyaiba (Ms15w 3-4)

Nihonyanagi (Ms23e 4-3)
Matsui (Ms23w 4-3)

Takakento (Ms27w 5-2)
Toseiryu (Ms31w 5-2)

Oyamatoumi (Ms43e 6-1)
Kazenoumi (Ms44w 6-1)

I think it's safe to say that the 2-5's can be ruled out, as well as Mineyaiba and Toseiryu. The 6-1's ordinarily should be out, too, and we would thus be talking only about Nishinoryu, Takakento and the two 4-3's as credible candidates - as mentioned above the 6-1 treatment is normally fairly stable and the line for promotion into the top 15 ranks is generally around Ms36/37 with very few promotions from further down.

Ms43/44 should end up much lower than that, but as that same query shows there was one notable exception not too long ago, after Haru 2022. As part of that one they did the following:

Ms39e 6-1 -> Ms13w
Ms42e 6-1 -> Ms14e
Ms26w 5-2 -> Ms14w
Ms20e 4-3 -> Ms15e
Ms13w 3-4 -> Ms15w

So I guess it's not totally out of the question that one or even both 6-1's could jump to Ms15; Takakento vs Oyamatoumi is basically the same scenario. My personal expectation is this, though:

Nishinoryu (Ms11w 3-4)    Ms15 Takakento (Ms27w 5-2)

I don't particularly like how lucky Nishinoryu would get with that (compare him to Kitadaichi at Ms14 above). Perhaps they won't either and it's Oyamatoumi or Nihonyanagi who sneaks in instead. But Nishinoryu + Oyamatoumi would arguably work, too, if they think the overpromotion for Takakento is what's too much; compare him to the Chiyotora/Kaiseijo/Tenshoho block. Needless to say, this would have all been much cleaner if Myogiryu and Aoiyama had stuck around for their last juryo salary in October and only retired after the banzuke-making session. (I'm still glad they left in time.)

Edited September 25 by Asashosakari

[Yarimotsu 522]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Maybe one of these days they'll decide to go whole hog and dispense with the "can't promote on makekoshi" stuff, too. By the numbers every single 7-8 deserved to be promoted, so they might as well do it...

I haven't looked into it in any depth, but have always thought the easier solution to a lacklustre Juryo is to promote the Ms KKs further. They seem insistent on putting them at the bottom of Juryo, and perhaps for good reason - but there shouldn't really be an established "step" for promotion between systems with different win numbers.

[Reonito 1,336]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Asakoryu (J8e 11-4)       J1   Kinbozan (M12w 4-11)

A couple of interesting decisions implied by this line 

[Asashosakari 18,804]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

A couple of interesting decisions implied by this line 

No guarantees that my eventual GTB entry will match that, but it's how I'm leaning right now. (Mostly I don't want to leave Takerufuji in juryo and have that be wrong again, everything else is secondary. )

[Reonito 1,336]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen a juryo division banzuke before where all KK scores from the previous basho were exhausted by J6e. Moving on...

Technical examination tournament aside, the 9 KK in juryo is the fewest since it went to 28 rikishi in 2004.

[Asashosakari 18,804]

And the obscure stuff...

Promotions from sandanme:
7-0   x1 Sd51w
6-1   x5 Sd10w, Sd24w, Sd28w, Sd40w, Sd46e
5-2   x8 Sd3e, Sd3w, Sd4w, Sd14w, Sd15w, Sd20w, Sd21e, Sd24e
4-3   x4 Sd2w, Sd7w, Sd9w, Sd10e
MsTd  x1 
--------
     x19

7-0 scores will of course get promoted to makushita from anywhere in sandanme, while the respective promotion zones for the other records end at Sd50 for 6-1, Sd25 for 5-2, and Sd11 for 4-3. And again there's a kachikoshi makushita tsukedashi who requires space like any regular promotee does, so he's included in the count.

Demotions from makushita:
intai x4 S2w, J9w, J13e, Ms11e
0-0-7 x3 Ms38e, Ms49w, Ms59e
0-7   x1 Ms46w
1-6   x2 Ms53w, Ms52w
2-5   x5 Ms59w, Ms58w, Ms56e, Ms48e, Ms45e, (Ms40e, Ms38w)
3-4   x4 Ms56w, Ms54e, Ms52e, Ms50e, (Ms49e, Ms48w)
--------
     x19

Should be a clear cut decision who goes down this time, there's no other combination that makes sense.

Shin-makushita for Kyushu:
Suyama (Sd10w 6-1)
Seihakuho (Sd28w 6-1)
Ieshima (Sd40w 6-1)
Okaryu (Sd3w 5-2)

Promotions from jonidan:
7-0   x2 Jd5w, Jd57e
6-1   x7 Jd16w, Jd30e, Jd31w, Jd40w, Jd53e, Jd67w, Jd69e
5-2  x10 Jd4w, Jd6w, Jd7e, Jd14e, Jd19w, Jd20w, Jd23w, Jd29w, Jd32e, Jd37e
4-3  x11 Jd2e, Jd3e, Jd3w, Jd7w, Jd10w, Jd11w, Jd12e, Jd13e, Jd17w, Jd18w, Jd19e
MsTd  x1
--------
     x31

The respective promotion cutoffs for 6-1 and below are Jd70 / Jd37 / Jd20 here. As mentioned elsewhere, this banzuke session is unusual in that every single 6-1 rikishi in the jonidan division was ranked high enough to be part of the promotion crowd.

Demotions from sandanme:
intai x6 S2w, J9w, J13e, Ms11e, Sd65e, Sd78e
0-0-7 x5 Sd77w, Sd73w, Sd71w, Sd56w, Sd44w
0-7   x0 (Sd31e)
1-6   x4 Sd86w, Sd70w, Sd60e, Sd55e, (Sd49w)
2-5   x7 Sd89w, Sd87e, Sd85w, Sd84e, Sd80w, Sd74e, Sd69w, (Sd62e)
3-4   x9 Sd90e, Sd88e, Sd87w, Sd81e, Sd78w, Sd77e, Sd76e, Sd75w, Sd75e, (Sd69e)
--------
     x31

Looks clear cut as well.

Jd/Jk split:
 196 Jd
  34 Jk
- 11 intai
-  6 >Bg
+  1 MsTd
+  0 Mz
----
 214 = 107 ranks

A significant loss of 8 ranks this time.

Likely to be in Jk:
Mz       x0 
Jk 0-7   x2 Jk17e, Jk5w
Jk 1-6   x5 Jk12w, Jk11w, Jk7w, Jk1w, Jk1e
Jk 2-5   x5 Jk11e, Jk10w, Jk6w, Jk6e, Jk4w
Jk 3-4   x3 Jk10e, Jk9e, Jk7e
Jd 0-0-7 x4 Jd93w, Jd73w, Jd64w, Jd54w
Jd 0-7   x2 Jd63w, Jd52e
Jd 1-6   x1 Jd86e, (Jd71e)
Jd 2-5   x3 Jd98e, Jd96e, Jd91w, (Jd86w, Jd85w, Jd84w, Jd82e, Jd81e)
Jd 3-4   x1 Jd98w, (Jd96w, Jd93e, Jd92w, Jd92e, Jd90e)
-----------
        x26 => 94 Jd, 13 Jk

Personally I feel that 13 Jk ranks is far too low, but then I thought that about the 17 from Aki, too... But this time they'll have to demote some jonidan guys who actually who bouts, if only because the split without such demotions would be 96.5 / 10.5 and they're not going to have a jonidan where the last rank has only half occupancy. The next rikishi out of jonidan would presumably be:

for 14 Jk ranks: Jd96w 3-4 and Jd86w 2-5
for 15 Jk ranks: Jd85w 2-5 and Jd84w 2-5

And that's likely as large as they will go. Will they go lower than 13? I wouldn't rule that out either, though as mentioned there's really not much room in that direction.

Anyway, we're in territory not travelled since the 1970s here (the Kyushu banzuke will have 584 names on it), so it's difficult to say where they will be going with this. Maybe the upcoming, typically larger, shindeshi classes for Kyushu, Hatsu and Haru will save them over the next six months, otherwise I wouldn't be surprised if there's another sandanme cut coming soon.

Edited September 25 by Asashosakari

[Sumo Spiffy 537]

On 25/09/2024 at 04:48, I am the Yokozuna said:

We would never know what they would have done in case they were not those two additional retirements in terms of who would have been demoted. The two additional retirements feel like a kind of a helping hand not to be forced into making any decision. 

Myogiryu was far enough down the ranks that his demotion had no effective impact on the juryo/makushita border. Aoiyama obviously was in an impactful position. Maybe he decided he was done regardless of where he landed, but it's at least as likely that he retired because he found out he absolutely was not staying in juryo. If that's the case, then the retirements only impacted the order at the top of makushita, not the bottom of juryo.

Edited September 26 by Sumo Spiffy

[Gurowake 3,924]

I had a thought recently about them maybe giving the open Sekiwake spot to Wakamotoharu instead of Daieisho.  I don't think it'll happen, but I thought I'd at least mention it as it seems within the realm of possibility.

[Reonito 1,336]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I had a thought recently about them maybe giving the open Sekiwake spot to Wakamotoharu instead of Daieisho.  I don't think it'll happen, but I thought I'd at least mention it as it seems within the realm of possibility.

Yeah, it's not crazy, even though I'm not sure how much of a useful precedent this basho sets for anything.

[Sumo Spiffy 537]

On 14/10/2024 at 19:39, Reonito said:

Yeah, it's not crazy, even though I'm not sure how much of a useful precedent this basho sets for anything.

I'm sticking with the assumption that they'll only make a move like that if the komusubi in question can still get promoted. It's no guarantee, given the insanity of that situation, but I think odds are at least much higher Kiri would have gotten the sekiwake slot if he'd been K1e instead of K1w. I also think his odds would have been a lot better if the alternative was an 11-4 M3 (like Waka this time) instead of a 12-3 M1. Put those together and it's hard to see Daieisho getting shut out.

Oho v. Shodai remains much more of a question...

[Reonito 1,336]

23 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Oho v. Shodai remains much more of a question...

WTK is in that equation as well, no?

[Sumo Spiffy 537]

37 minutes ago, Reonito said:

WTK is in that equation as well, no?

I don't think so. There's no compelling reason for them to have more than two komusubi, so if Waka Prime gets up there, then presumably Oho goes to M1e (+1.5) and Shodai to M1w (+2.5). That setup also over-demotes Hiradoumi; if they want to avoid that, then presumably Shodai only goes up +2 on 10-5. I don't think they're doing any of that for an M7, especially when even by the numbers he's not that far ahead of Shodai or Oho. It seems much more plausible they give Waka +5/5.5 (depending on what they do with him and Hiradoumi). Maaaaybe +6 and put him at M1e. 

[Bunbukuchagama 689]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

presumably Oho goes to M1e (+1.5)

This happened before.

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Shodai to M1w (+2.5)

This happened too.

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't think they're doing any of that for an M7

We don't have enough of a sample size to be sure about this.

I still see it as a 3-man race for the second Komusubi spot.

[Gurowake 3,924]

On 17/10/2024 at 21:39, Sumo Spiffy said:

then presumably Oho goes to M1e (+1.5)

I think you're being overly optimistic.  More on this after the GTB deadline hits.

[Reonito 1,336]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I think you're being overly optimistic.  More on this after the GTB deadline hits.

I think I know what you mean. I struggled with this for a while, and don't feel great about my choices, as I think I may have let what I would do influence my guess, when the banzuke committee has shown a different tendency. Although my research suggested that it's not so obvious in this instance.