Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Kyushu 2024

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Time for the last LKS of the year! Unfortunately not many rikishi managed to have a consistently good 2024 to make it onto the Kyushu ballot...

 1. Hoshoryu       17  [score?]
 2. Kotozakura     16  [score?]
 3. Wakaikari      10*
 4. Onosato         9* [score?]
 5. Wakatakakage    6
 6. Aonishiki       6*
 7. Kaisho          5
 8. Obara           5
 9. Kyokukaiyu      5*
10. Gyokuozan       5

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 10 guys up there and the further 12 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (7 'veterans' + 3 newcomers from maezumo + tsukedashi duo Matsui and Tokitenran), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 9 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu W-L
 2. Kotozakura W-L
 3. Wakaikari KKMK
 4. Onosato W-L
 5. Wakatakakage KKMK
 6. Aonishiki KKMK
 7. Kaisho KKMK
 8. Obara KKMK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KKMK
10. Gyokuozan KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

[Yarimotsu 580]

 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Wakaikari MK
 4. Onosato 12-3
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho MK
 8. Obara MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan MK

TB 13

[Ryoshishokunin 302]

Maybe not a very long ballot, but some large numbers next to their names like we haven't seen in a while.  Nice to see that at least.  

[Ryoshishokunin 302]

LKS Kyushu ’24

1. 9
2. 9
3. mk (how is this guy holding on???)
4. 9
5. kk
6. kk
7. mk
8. mk
9. kk
10. kk

 

TB 11

[Profomisakari 857]

 1. Hoshoryu           10
 2. Kotozakura        12
 3. Wakaikari           KK
 4. Onosato              12
 5. Wakatakakage   KK
 6. Aonishiki             KK
 7. Kaisho                 KK
 8. Obara                  MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu        KK
10. Gyokuozan       MK

TB 12

[Hakuryuho 335]

 1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotozakura 9-6
 3. Wakaikari MK
 4. Onosato 12-3
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho KK
 8. Obara KK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan KK

TB 13

[Holleshoryu 16]

1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Wakaikari MK
 4. Onosato 12-3
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho MK
 8. Obara MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan MK

TB 13

[ryafuji 815]

 1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotozakura 10-5
 3. Wakaikari MK
 4. Onosato 14-1
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho MK
 8. Obara MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan MK

TB 12

-----

[Oskanohana 261]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 9-6
 3. Wakaikari KK
 4. Onosato 11-4
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho KK
 8. Obara MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan MK

TB 14

[Bunbukuchagama 732]

1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotozakura 9-6
 3. Wakaikari MK
 4. Onosato 10-5
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho MK
 8. Obara MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan MK

TB 11

[Jejima 1,396]

1. Hoshoryu 8-7
 2. Kotozakura 8-7
 3. Wakaikari KK
 4. Onosato 8-7
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho KK
 8. Obara KK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan KK

TB 16

[Bunbukuchagama 732]

24 minutes ago, Jejima said:

TB 16

Wow. Feeling generous today? 

[Jejima 1,396]

3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Wow. Feeling generous today? 

My lucky number

 

[Athenayama 1,042]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura 11-4
 3. Wakaikari KK
 4. Onosato 12-3
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki KK
 7. Kaisho MK
 8. Obara MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan MK

TB 13

[Sakura 1,489]

kosho please

[WAKATAKE 2,660]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotozakura MK
 3. Wakaikari KK
 4. Onosato 11-4
 5. Wakatakakage KK
 6. Aonishiki MK
 7. Kaisho KK
 8. Obara KK
 9. Kyokukaiyu KK
10. Gyokuozan KK

TB 15

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Hoshoryu              9
 2. Kotozakura          9
 3. Wakaikari                    MK
 4. Onosato               11
 5. Wakatakakage            MK
 6. Aonishiki                               KK
 7. Kaisho                           MK
 8. Obara                             MK
 9. Kyokukaiyu                            KK
10. Gyokuozan                   MK

TB 10

[Asashosakari 19,403]

9 Hoshoryu
11 Kotozakura
- Wakaikari
12 Onosato
+ Wakatakakage
+ Aonishiki
+ Kaisho
- Obara
+ Kyokukaiyu
- Gyokuozan

TB 12

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Apologies, very late again... Let's start with the Kyushu selection stats:

Player	Hosho		K'zakura		W'ikari	Onosato		W'kage	Aonishi	Kaisho	Obara	Kyoku	Gyoku	TB	Cons
Yarimotsu	+	11-4	+	11-4	-	+	12-3	+	+	-	-	+	-	13	1.18
Ryoshishokunin	-	9-6	-	9-6	-	-	9-6	+	+	-	-	+	+	11	1.25
Profomisakari	+	10-5	+	12-3	+	+	12-3	+	+	+	-	+	-	12	1.31
Hakuryuho	-	9-6	-	9-6	-	+	12-3	+	+	+	+	+	+	13	1.45
Holleshoryu	-	9-6	+	10-5	-	+	12-3	+	+	-	-	+	-	13	1.08
ryafuji	-	9-6	+	10-5	-	+	14-1	+	+	-	-	+	-	12	1.08
Oskanohana	+	10-5	-	9-6	+	-	11-4	+	+	+	-	+	-	14	1.31
Bunbukuchagama	-	9-6	-	9-6	-	-	10-5	+	+	-	-	+	-	11	1.08
Jejima	-	8-7	-	8-7	+	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	+	16	1.55
Athenayama	+	10-5	+	11-4	+	+	12-3	+	+	-	-	+	-	13	1.28
WAKATAKE	+	10-5	-	MK	+	-	11-4	+	-	+	+	+	+	15	1.87
chishafuwaku	-	9-6	-	9-6	-	-	11-4	-	+	-	-	+	-	10	1.42
Asashosakari	-	9-6	+	11-4	-	+	12-3	+	+	+	-	+	-	12	1.12
	5:8		6:7		5:8	7:6		12:1	12:1	6:7	3:10	13:0	4:9
Results	+		+		-	- (KK)		+	+	-	-	-	+

One all-KK slate, but it's neither of the two rikishi I would have expected it for: Wakatakakage and Aonishiki both attracted a single MK vote, while Kyokukaiyu remarkably received full support. All remaining non-sanyaku slots received thumbs-down majorities.

The picks for the three sanyaku ballot members worked out in nearly balanced fashion, with matching 10-5 targets for Hoshoryu and Kotozakura while shin-ozeki Onosato was put on 12-3 (or better) by a slight majority of entrants.

With such a short ballot it's not much of a surprise that two players ended up with identical rikishi picks; Holleshoryu and ryafuji are separated only by their tie-breaker entries and the full extent of their Onosato optimism. No less than eight more pairs of players differ in only a single slot. The two leaders also figure into the other end of the similarity standings, where WAKATAKE has produced an entry that shares only two selections with theirs. WAKATAKE's ballot also has only three choices in common with those of another trio of players (Asashosakari, chishafuwaku, Yarimotsu). Lastly, Jejima and Yarimotsu also managed to agree on just three rikishi.

It goes without saying at this point that WAKATAKE also produced the overall most unusual entry, with just three choices that follow the majority. The most average entries are the identical ones by Holleshoryu and ryafuji as well as Bunbukuchagama's, differing from the mainstream only by a single 6:7 pick. Asashosakari follows right behind with two 6:7's on his ballot.

The tie-breaker choices ended up monopolized (or duopolized, I guess) by selections of 13 and 14, complemented by single outliers at 12, 15 and 16. The tie-breaker choices ended up covering the whole range from 10 to 16, with 12's and 13's accounting for just over half of them.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Day 6

The scoring kicked off on the absolutely earliest possible day, after Obara fell to 0-3 by Day 5 and then was drawn into an early fourth match against a juryo opponent, which he also lost. A truly rude awakening after 5 straight KK for the 25-year-old. Nevertheless, a widely expected result for the rikishi who had received the largest share of MK votes on this basho's ballot.

Day 8

And another 0-4, this one off-ballot. National university graduate Suyama keeps receiving attention by the Japanese press, but his makushita debut hasn't gone well at all here.

Day 9

Big starts for ozeki duo Hoshoryu and Kotozakura, and both are kachikoshi already after nine days. Two more wins apiece for their 10-5 target scores. On the other hand the day also brought an early makekoshi for former sekitori Kaisho - a slight majority of us predicted that outcome correctly.

Furthermore, split results by the off-ballot crowd where Dewataikai secured the fifth straight KK of a return from injury, while March sandanme tsukedashi Tokitenran suffered his career-first MK.

The first proper standings:

Day 9: 2/10 Decisions, TB 3-18
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	2	11
1	chishafuwaku	2	10
1	Ryoshishokunin	2	11
4	ryafuji	2	12
5	Athenayama	2	13
5	Holleshoryu	2	13
5	Yarimotsu	2	13
8	Asashosakari	1	12
8	Profomisakari	1	12
10	Oskanohana	1	14
11	Hakuryuho	0	13
12	WAKATAKE	0	15
13	Jejima	0	16

 

Edited December 11, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Day 10

Only off-ballot action again, with one KK and one MK: Ex-sekitori Tochimaru continued his post-injury revival with kachikoshi #5, but Yutakasho picked up his fourth loss of the basho (on his 30th birthday no less), ending his KK streaking hopes.

Day 11

And while we're at it, let's start off-ballot again. Today's KK was provided by prospect Ienoshima, today's MK came courtesy of 2024 rookie Daimasakari.

Lots of fresh news on the ballot side of the game: Hoshoryu and Kotozakura marched on to their targeted 10 wins side by side, while fellow ozeki Onosato picked up loss number 4 to fall out of contention for his 12-3 target record. Further KKs were produced by Wakatakakage (highly expected) and Gyokuozan (quite the opposite).

Nobody managed to score the full five points on the day, but WAKATAKE did excel with the sole 4-point tally. On the other end of the spectrum only one point was earned by unfortunate chishafuwaku. The rest of the field produced five scores of 2 and six 3's.

Too far behind after Day 9, WAKATAKE was unable to join the new lead group comprising three of the previous seven frontrunners.

Day 11: 7/10 Decisions, TB 7-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Ryoshishokunin	5	11
2	Athenayama	5	13
2	Yarimotsu	5	13
4	Bunbukuchagama	4	11
4	Profomisakari	4	12
4	ryafuji	4	12
7	Holleshoryu	4	13
8	Oskanohana	4	14
9	WAKATAKE	4	15
10	Asashosakari	3	12
11	chishafuwaku	3	10
12	Jejima	3	16
13	Hakuryuho	2	13

 

Edited December 11, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,403]

With just three slots left to be decided, the LKS yusho race is naturally close to the finish line despite four more days to go. However, it's even closer than it usually would be as one of the remaining decisions is that of unanimously KK-selected Kyokukaiyu and another is the nearly all-KK Aonishiki. Thus we're almost entirely down to the outcome of Wakaikari's juryo debut campaign:

• A Wakaikari kachikoshi would separate Athenayama from the other two leaders and give him the yusho, unless...
  • Aonishiki still drops to makekoshi from 7-4, which would allow WAKATAKE to join the lead as well, and prevail for the championship if the TB ends at his selected value of 15 (needs kachikoshi by everybody else, on and off ballot).
• A Wakaikari makekoshi, conversely, would put Ryoshishokunin and Yarimotsu in the joint final lead, with Yarimotsu winning the yusho, unless...
  • the TB finishes at Ryoshishokunin's 11 (needs 4 KK and 4 MK out of the other rikishi).

So, two big contenders and two massive outsiders. Everybody else is eliminated from the race as of Day 11.

Day 12

Aonishiki didn't wait any longer to secure his shin-juryo KK, running his streak to 7 and also eliminating WAKATAKE from yusho contention along the way. Everybody else picked up the point on this ballot slot. In addition, the day's final match saw Onosato clinch his kachikoshi as well to retain his spot on the ballot.

Joining the ballot for Hatsu basho is 20-year-old Matsui, who secured his fifth KK and keeps impressing since his makushita tsukedashi debut back in March.

Day 12: 8/10 Decisions, TB 10-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Athenayama	6	13
1	Yarimotsu	6	13
3	Ryoshishokunin	6	11
4	Holleshoryu	5	13
5	Oskanohana	5	14
5	Profomisakari	5	12
5	ryafuji	5	12
8	Bunbukuchagama	5	11
9	Asashosakari	4	12
10	WAKATAKE	4	15
11	chishafuwaku	4	10
11	Jejima	4	16
13	Hakuryuho	3	13

 

Edited December 11, 2024 by Asashosakari

[chishafuwaku 476]

17 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

The tie-breaker choices ended up monopolized (or duopolized, I guess) by selections of 13 and 14, complemented by single outliers at 12, 15 and 16.

10   1
11   2
12   3
13   4
14   1
15   1
16   1

[Asashosakari 19,403]

1 hour ago, chishafuwaku said:

10   1
11   2
12   3
13   4
14   1
15   1
16   1

Oh, geez...did I forget to actually update those in my scoring sheet? Something is definitely wrong...I'll double-check before finalizing the results.

Edit: Yup, while importing the picks the TB column somehow evaded getting the new data. Sorry! I'll fix up the results tables. Luckily no massive effects through Day 12, just the specifics of the yusho pathways will be slightly different.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,403]

And fixed. Many thanks for the heads-up!