Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

[Hankegami 537]

Good day 8! Nakabi, finally. Let's bother y'all with a few comments about my faves.

Injured or not, today I've seen the best Hakuoho in a while. Nishikigi is not the fiercest opponent, but it's still a 180+ kg hardball to move and he did it swiftly.

Midorifuji is cooked for this basho. He got manhandled by Tamashoho, himself not looking great in Makuuchi. A few people suggested that Midorin was figured out, but he and Tamashoho never met each other in years. I think he's nursing an injury or something like that at this point. This is a more likely conclusion also considering that he never gave such disastrous results outside the joy.

Kitanowaka is likely out after today's bout. I never found him particularly entertaining, but of course I feel sorry for him. His (involuntary) butcher TRUCKerufuji still solid at 7-1.

Tamawashi vs. Kinbozan was just as entertaining as promised. The King led the match all along, but Tamawashi defied him many times and even attempted to turn tables - for a moment I actually thought he got Kinbozan for good. Anyway, KK and front-runner position secured for another day for Kinbo.

Ichiyamamoto is still cruising gallantly today, 5-3 at M6 looks good. Happy for him, now with a bit of luck he might have a joy experience in Haru - although not likely a joyous experience in itself.

Annnd Chiyoshoma fell. End of his 13(+1 fusen yesterday) wins streak. Takarafuji is surely capitalizing on his experience (slaying veterans Tamawashi and now 'Shoma) after an awful start.

A bit up, very entertaining bout from Abi vs. Tobizaru. Abi lost his drive almost at the beginning and everything looked like Tobizaru was going to win. Our favorite bad boy of sumo, however, managed to turn tables and push the Monkey out. Great show.

Finally, Ozeki time. Chastised Kotozakura faced a theoretically dangerous Oho - who suddenly chose to go back to the old Oho. I still don't get how he managed to lose. Kotozakura had very little forwarding power, and yet Oho failed to boss him out repeatedly and ended up rolling down first. Good for Kotozakura (second day wearing black, second win), but a bit of a letdown. Wakatakakage vs. Onosato was interesting. Surprisingly, Onosato lost their two previous F2F. He also seemed in trouble as soon as WTK got a grip on him. However, the Ogre is damn big, and used that same grip to bully WTK out after a discreet struggle. Impressive, although still Ogre-ish. Now, last but not least... Shodai vs. Hoshoryu. I damn forgot how Shodai is lit by big stacks of money. He resisted the Nephew's charge with ease and brawled him out.

I think we should seriously brace for a Nokozuna era. Hoshoryu is in a bad, bad position, now. Seven days to go, and no errors whatsoever. Even worse, he's losing matches to random Maegashira doing a poor tournament. Not sure how much the NSK is available to get yet another kinboshi machine on the top spot.

Edited January 19 by Hankegami

[Kaninoyama 1,787]

23 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Still a week to go and anything can happen and usually does, but Hoshoryu's tsuna run is looking rather unstoppable at the moment. 

Like I said, Kinbozan's yuusho run is looking rather unstoppable at the moment. 

[Joaoiyama 308]

Now that was terrible, Hoshoryu couldn't afford to lose to Shodai and lost bad. 

[Akinomaki 40,481]

Back to open-for-all time, no sanyaku 1 behind the leader - and no yokozuna, I'd say for at least the next 2 basho (=no ozeki yusho/doten this time)

[Hankegami 537]

38 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Like I said, Kinbozan's yuusho run is looking rather unstoppable at the moment. 

Tomorrow we are getting Takerufuji vs. Kinbozan. The Truck was surprised by Forever Young Tamawashi (who Kimbo defeated today in a spirited match) and lost one, but he's also the holder of a most historical and strong 13-2Y and might play spoilers.

I take advantage of this reply to blabber a bit about the current arasoi. We have three groups of contenders essentially:

• People having the best basho of their lives: Kinbozan, Chiyoshoma, Oho. The first two are also the least likely to survive a beating in the joy, given their previous record. Oho is in the joy, but he's under Ozeki treatment now and is responding badly. I wait for them to get some top brass treatment before betting on their horses.
• Maegashira Yusho holders (they can pull it off again). Tamawashi and, in perspective, Takerufuji. Tamawashi lost a spirited bout against front-runner Kinbozan today, but he's clearly in a great shape. Takerufuji doesn't need introductions, is one of the many "Reiwa Monsters" (Hakuoho, himself, and now Onosato) that filled the news in the latest years. Again, let's keep an eye on him. He's the one who showed the greatest growth IMHO. I still remember his first Makuuchi Yusho. All he did was hitting hard at the tachi-ai, getting the belt, and giving his best Kotoshogiku impression until his opponent was yorikiri'd out. It's a couple bashos that he began pushing people around first, and with excellent results. I suspect he's doing that to avoid injuries, but differently from Hakuoho it's working magnificently (13-2 Juryo Y, 10-5 in his return Makuuchi basho, now cruising 7-1 from M11w). Also, he has been already baptized by the joy in his previous Yusho run, and fared respectably (4-2, losses to Hoshoryu and Asanoyama, see here). He can do that again.
• Acknowledged top brass: Hoshoryu, Daieisho. The Nephew today reverted to the usual Nephew losing perfectly winnable bouts against random Maegashira, but he already won a Yusho despite that. He can do this again, although perhaps not with a tsuna-worthy performance anymore. Daieisho is the usual Daieisho to me - I doubt he's gunning for the Yusho, but he already got one and went very close to get a second not that much time ago, no don't write him out already.

I still doubt that anyone else can remain in the race (although it would be funny to see Kirishima pull a 12-3Y out of his ass after his abysmal start). It's too soon to understand who is going to win, but I think that tomorrow's bout between Kinbozan and Takerufuji is going to tell us who's going to be the most likely dark horse contender.

Edited January 19 by Hankegami

[hakutorizakura 629]

What a party pooper. Classic Shodai 

[Kaikitsune Makoto 209]

16 minutes ago, hakutorizakura said:

What a party pooper. Classic Shodai 

Best Shodai. When he does this kind of sumo he is a match to anyone when it comes to pure strength. Problem is that he does not do this kind of sumo that much but he showed what he is when he is out there to really destroy and not his decadent 50% capacity version.

[Kaninoyama 1,787]

I love Shodai the Spoiler. The perfect role for him in what remains of his career. 

[Kaikitsune Makoto 209]

Kotozakura doesn¨t appear that debilitated by any truly meaningful injury. Not saying that still can´t be the case though. He is just Tappara there now. Not a sum of his attributes and out of tune., Today was sturdy power sumo.

[Kishinoyama 595]

If you lose to Shodai you’re not getting the rope this time. 

[RabidJohn 1,786]

Well, congratulations to Kinbozan on the nakabi KK. Even if he crashes and burns up against the top dogs, that's an uncommon achievement.

I'm not holding a loss to Shodai against Hoshoryu. We all know the former has the annoying ability to be unbeatable on any given day.
If Hoshoryu can win out from here, he could keep his run going even if he doesn't yusho.
It's a tall order, though, and I expect Demon Kakka's prediction will come true.

I'm also inclined to go along with His Excellency's other prediction that Onosato will get the rope some time this year, mainly because he reminds me so much of Akebono: unstoppable once he gets forward momentum, as seen today. 
Coincidentally, he's now got the same yokozuna-vacuum opportunity as Akebono had.

[Morty 1,495]

If I had to put money on it at this stage I'd say Takerafuji is in the yusho box-seat. He doesn't seem to suffer from nerves, he's done it once before, he is clearly better than all the other rikishi around him on the banzuke, and he looks capable of mixing it with the guys at the top. We'll know more after tomorrow, but bigger picture, if he stays fit I reckon he'll be Ozeki well before the end of the year. 

[visitor_22 28]

It would be fun if Kinbozan somehow wins tommorow, but Takerufuji is a favourite & gonna imho!

[Gospodin 191]

Shishi has thighs the size of an ox. Might warrant a new shikona....

[ryafuji 814]

No yokozuna on the banzuke in March, then.

[dingo 1,263]

Kagayaki had a prime chance to defeat Onokatsu with a pulldown while the latter was exerting himself at the tawara, but I guess the thought didn't occur to him or he simply didn't want to risk it. Perhaps he should've though since Onokatsu is younger and stronger so Kagayaki lost another.

I forgot that this basho Tamashoho is in makuuchi too so Midorifuji does have someone closer to his own weight to wrestle with. That wasn't too much help though as Tamawashi even tried a tsuridashi on the way to his win -- at his weight I guess he doesn't get to do it too much.

Tamawashi resisted valiantly at the tawara and almost got Kinbozan out but in the end his steam ran out and he had to pick up his second loss. I think he'll be happy with a simple kachikoshi and if he manages double digits he should be delighted.

Jeez, Chiyoshoma... but it wasn't all his own fault as Takarafuji got hold of his hand and together with the sideways movement used it to force Chiyoshoma down. Excellent tawara dancing skills by Takarafuji.

Wakamotoharu just doesn't seem to have the mojo this basho. He does everything ok but he's always a bit slower or stronger than his opponent. He would probably have an ok basho at lower maegashira, but at sekiwake it's not enough. But at this rate he won't be a sekiwake much longer anyway.

Wow, Onosato bulldozed Wakatakakage out despite giving up a solid inside grip. The amount of power he can generate is simply mindblowing. But other opponents will not be as easy so Onosato really should practice his tachiai more. It seems lacking in general but this basho it stands out especially. Isn't Kisenosato gonna teach Onosato his famous straight back launch posture?

Oh my, I wasn't really serious when I was joking earlier that Shodai is gonna beat Hoshoryu but would you believe it! Shodai has it in for the ozeki this basho, 2 out of 3. Perhaps Hoshoryu wasn't quite prepared for that kind of energy from Shodai. And I guess Shodai wanted to send the message that if you wanna be a yokozuna, better learn how to beat an ex-ozeki first. Hoshoryu's sour face after the bout was priceless. I think it's still early to declare Hoshoryu's tsuna run over, but with 7 days to go he's not in the best spot.

[Gospodin 191]

31 minutes ago, dingo said:

Perhaps Hoshoryu wasn't quite prepared for that kind of energy from Shodai.

I expect more of his second-week opponents to go with oshi sumo against him. 

[Octofuji 357]

Like Nishikigi, Chiyoshoma's run of consecutive wins stopped one short of 15. I wonder if it that number entered his mind and affected his concentration, or whether it was just overconfidence.

Edited January 19 by Octofuji

[Asashosakari 19,320]

All aboard, please, the Daieisho 13-2 yusho train is departing shortly.

[Yamanashi 3,840]

Everyone here complains about Hoshoryu always wanting to -nage everyone, so today against Shodai he does an all-shoving match against a big guy.  Did Shodai have hot sauce spread over his mawashi, or was there some other reason why Hoshoryu didn't want to touch it?

[hakutorizakura 629]

6 hours ago, Morty said:

If I had to put money on it at this stage I'd say Takerafuji

Sure. All traps and no neck, who will be able beat that. Zero effect for nodowa and kubinage.

[Shikona 148]

With Shodai standing as the insurmountable wall against Yokozuna hopefuls, the next Yokozuna will need to be... Shodai? Well, maybe, if he clicks with the idea that at that level you can take time off for an entire basho instead of just every other bout.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

6 minutes ago, Shikona said:

With Shodai standing as the insurmountable wall against Yokozuna hopefuls, the next Yokozuna will need to be... Shodai?

Or Tokihayate.

[Kaninoyama 1,787]

Joking aside, Kinbozan has looked spectacular so far. In his katchi-koshi interview he said his neck pain was all gone, so maybe this is just really him being him?

Edited January 19 by Kaninoyama

[Kaikitsune Makoto 209]

Onosato in immensely strong. One of the strongest I have ever seen physically. He can do both yotsu and oshi. Still some dumb losses and erratic crap but physically so formidable that if these "beginner" mistakes go away it is very difficult to beat him. When he gets in a strong tachi-ai nobody can really match that.

Takerufuji is a bit of an enigma. He "shouldn`t" be  that strong as he often is. Somehow can generate explosive power and optimize his attacks and he is always in full attack mode. Quite interesting to see how far he can actually go. Tomorrow it is all about who succeeds in getting into that attack mode. Kinbozan will not withstand Takerufuji´s full attack if Takerufuji is able to launch that but if it goes vice versa Takerufuji most likely loses unless does some hataki stuff and Kinbozan falls for it.