Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

[RabidJohn 1,777]

5 hours ago, Kaikitsune Makoto said:

Jinx doesn´t exist.

Aye, but superstition is still exists regardless of its irrationality.

I am not superstitious, but I do refer to the recent run of rapid demotions from ozeki as 'the curse', even though I know it's nothing more than happenstance. 
It's a convenient, colloquial label that everyone here understands.

I may refer to having my fingers crossed for someone. I haven't and I wouldn't because I know it has no bearing on outcomes, but again it's easily understood whether you're superstitious or not.

I'm being humourous if I suggest that @dingo jinxed Kinbozan's chance of a zensho at the end of yesterday's post, and it doesn't matter whether you get it or not.

---

What the hell was that old-time fisticuffs stance from Ura? I hope he gets a proper bollocking for that.

Edited January 21 by RabidJohn

[Koorifuu 990]

RE Futahaguro, it's impressive that he's almost as infamous in the puroresu world as he is in ozumo...

[Ryoshishokunin 286]

1 hour ago, Naganoyama said:

When people mention that Kirishima started 0-3, they should perhaps bear in mind that he lost to the yokozuna and two ozeki.

On the other hand, he was the *very last* person to lose to Terunofuji :)

[Tsubame 361]

16 hours ago, Fashiritētā said:

I agree Benihana, neither were ready , should be fun with no Yokozuna for the next 3 or 4 Bashos

No, I do not see any sekitori (current or speculative future ozeki) dominat enough to get two consecutive "yusho-equivalents".

I fear the yokozuna-less time will be longer...
... much longer.

[dingo 1,263]

As Hankegami mentioned, more normal day of sumo today. 

Shonannoumi had slowly clawed his score back to an even 5-5, when at the start of the basho it looked like he'd be heading straight for a certain makekoshi. In recent days he's looked better as well, so hopefully that means his injury is not bothering him too much. A kachikoshi doesn't seem too far-fetched anymore. 

Takerufuji decided to take a day off and rest. For me there's simply no other way to look at that non-bout. Maybe he was also a bit concerned about facing an in-form Ichiyamamoto so outsmarting him was the easy solution. We'll see tomorrow if the rest benefited Takerufuji or not. 

Shodai seems to have been looking at Onosato and thinking to himself "Hey, I can do that too!". Except he almost botched it due to being a bit over eager. Fortunately for Shodai his brakes worked pretty well and he stepped out a split second after Mitakeumi. As with Shonannoumi, if Shodai continues like this then a kachikoshi could be in sight. But with Shodai you never know. 

Halfway through his bout Oho suddenly remembered that it's likely better to grab Tamawashi rather than engage with him in a pushing contest. And once he got hold of Tamawashi it was very one sided. Day 10 kachikoshi is excellent, but the content of his sumo which led to it is even better. 

Surprising power sumo today by Endo, easily handling Atamifuji. Maybe Atamifuji was hoping for an easier bout or his tachiai didn't work out well, but this makes me wonder how did Hoshoryu manage to lose to him. 

Like I wrote yesterday, Chiyoshoma and Kinbozan seem quite unlikely yusho winners and today's matches confirmed my opinion. Chiyoshoma tried to slap Kirishima and got a *proper* slap in return, Kirishima seemingly amused how well that worked. Kinbozan was obviously nervous about facing a top rikishi in an important bout to keep his lead, which was easily exploited by Abi who clearly read Kinbozan and his jitters like a book. Both Chiyoshoma and Kinbozan might be in a shape that allows them to easily defeat the opponents around their rank, but stronger opposition is a different story. Kinbozan is still ahead by one win but I'm quite sure he won't end up winning the yusho. 

On to the ozeki. Onosato seems a bit unwilling these days to face strong pushers head on. That's understandable but can also easily backfire. Today his tactics worked well but there are rikishi who can react better than Gonoyama. Daieisho made it too easy for Hoshoryu to get a simple slapdown, no trouble there. Surprisingly the best ozeki performance today was by Kotozakura who finally found some aggression in him, channeling last bashos, performance. 

Edited January 21 by dingo

[hakutorizakura 628]

Ura you clown, what were you doing 

 

[Kintamayama 45,093]

I had a serious look at my crystal balls today. A messy three way playoff. Don't know who, as the balls immediately collided with each other and disappeared. 

Three way playoff.

[Shikona 148]

27 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I had a serious look at my crystal balls today. A messy three way playoff. Don't know who, as the balls immediately collided with each other and disappeared. 

Those who have crystal balls shouldn't sit on stones?

[BroadMeadow 43]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I had a serious look at my crystal balls today. A messy three way playoff. Don't know who, as the balls immediately collided with each other and disappeared. 

Three way playoff.

We all had similar hopes! All those of us not tethered to reality. The schedules makers have made it clear they are not down for that...but we can do it!!!

Who will it be? 

Oho- only 2 losses, and he has already faced all the higher ranks. He is IN!

Chiyoshoma- already being fed to the wolves...as toothless as they may be. He is OUT

Kinbozan/Takerufuji/Onosato/Hoshoryu- it is going to be really tough for 2 of these to make it. I suppose Kinboslice could lose to both Ozeki and still make it, then the winner of the Ozeki H2H could get in. But I think ONLY 1 is in. 

Kirishima will win out thus handing Oho his 3rd loss. He is IN.

So my call is Oho, Kiri, and Hosh. 

Kiri will beat Oho in the first match and then beat Hosh in the 2nd. Hosh with his 2nd consecutive JY. Doing just enough to remain a bother to YDC and fuel the online chatter. 

Edited January 21 by BroadMeadow

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Onosato with the Aoiyama memorial victory today. Kinda yesterday, too, but today's looked even more like how Big Dan used to do it. I don't think I agree with the negative reactions posted above; sure, it's not what we've come to think of as "Onosato's sumo", but that could be an excellent long-term backup weapon if he refines it further, especially since we know he's got the footwork for it.

(Kakuryu's another one who was always a threat while moving backwards, of course with different angles because he didn't quite have the height to pull from above.)

[Jakusotsu 5,960]

...or as we like to call it in the chatroom: Ozeki Sumo

[dingo 1,263]

I'm all for Onosato getting another weapon in his arsenal, I just hope he won't overly rely on it to his own detriment. Even Kakuryu sometimes lost because of his pulling habit, though it didn't stop him from becoming a yokozuna. 

[Koorifuu 990]

Am I the only one who thinks Onosato henkaed on the 2nd matta because he knew it was a matta? After Gonoyama's shove in the first, I think he half expected another one and was like 'Nope, you're not roughing me up again.'. He won so comfortably and so calmly that the possibility he was scared of facing Gonoyama head on doesn't feel right to me.

[Octofuji 356]

26 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Am I the only one who thinks Onosato henkaed on the 2nd matta because he knew it was a matta? After Gonoyama's shove in the first, I think he half expected another one and was like 'Nope, you're not roughing me up again.'. He won so comfortably and so calmly that the possibility he was scared of facing Gonoyama head on doesn't feel right to me.

Yeah that's how I read it - I don't think it was premeditated. Endo did the same move a few days ago in a bout that should have been called a matta.

Speaking of Endo, Atamifuji is surely injured to go out so easily.

 

[Kintamayama 45,093]

7 hours ago, Shikona said:

Those who have crystal balls shouldn't sit on stones?

And vice versa.

[Kaninoyama 1,777]

4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Am I the only one who thinks Onosato henkaed on the 2nd matta because he knew it was a matta? After Gonoyama's shove in the first, I think he half expected another one and was like 'Nope, you're not roughing me up again.'. He won so comfortably and so calmly that the possibility he was scared of facing Gonoyama head on doesn't feel right to me.

I thought whether he knew it was a matta or not, Gonoyama was so egregiously charging head forward, eyes, down, off balance, a la Kotoshogiku, that he would have been an idiot to not simply step out of the way and let his opponent face plant himself. 

No problem with any rikishi henka-ing if their opponent is begging them to do it. 

Edited January 21 by Kaninoyama

[Kaito 290]

4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Am I the only one who thinks Onosato henkaed on the 2nd matta because he knew it was a matta? After Gonoyama's shove in the first, I think he half expected another one and was like 'Nope, you're not roughing me up again.'. He won so comfortably and so calmly that the possibility he was scared of facing Gonoyama head on doesn't feel right to me.

I didn't even think it was a matta.

[Wakawakawaka 149]

16 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

What the hell was that old-time fisticuffs stance from Ura? I hope he gets a proper bollocking for that.

WMH had some ill intent on that kachiage, Ura's response: "O you want a fight do ya!?"

[Asashosakari 19,309]

The Day 12 matches for the seven contenders after Day 10:

M3w Oho (8-2) - M1w Kirishima (7-3)
M14w Kinbozan (9-1) - O1w Hoshoryu (7-3)
O1e Kotozakura (4-6) - M11w Takerufuji (8-2)
M5w Chiyoshoma (8-2) - O2w Onosato (7-3)

That's one intra-sanyaku match scrapped for both Hoshoryu and Kotozakura, each has four opponents left for now just three days. (Ozeki matchups plus Kotozakura vs WMH & Daieisho, Hoshoryu vs WMH & Abi.)

Edited January 22 by Asashosakari

[dingo 1,263]

If Hoshoryu has a sanyaku match scrapped, is that a clear sign that the Kyokai considers his yokozuna run finished for this basho? Or am I reading too much into it... 

[Ryoshishokunin 286]

1 hour ago, dingo said:

If Hoshoryu has a sanyaku match scrapped, is that a clear sign that the Kyokai considers his yokozuna run finished for this basho? Or am I reading too much into it... 

Given that Kadoban-incoming Kotozakura was on his slate, not necessarily.  Also, the YDC and the scheduling committee are theoretically independent of each other, for what that's worth.

[MrGrumpyGills 133]

Nabatame finally has his first Juryo kachikoshi

Aside from that, interesting leaderboard in Makuuchi! Tomorrow, Kinbozan is being fed to the Nephew (or is it vice versa? ).

[Hankegami 537]

Good Day 11, everyone! Here my usual comments after the live bouts. Let's start out with the mid-lower Makuuchi men in the arasoi, finally hitting the san'yaku. Mixed results with a few great upsets.

Runner-up contender Oho was somewhat on rest day in comparison with his rivals. He had an early bout against Onokatsu, who showed his belt skills by giving Oho a hard run for his money and his shiroboshi alike. However, at the end Oho managed to be the pushiest and won the bout. Cruising nicely at 9-2. Another guy who had it relatively easy was Kirishima, who went up to 8-3 (KK, that's nice) after a spirited bout against Tamawashi. The Grand Old Man of Ozumo showed he's not done yet despite his recent losses, and that he can still rack up a few more wins against easier opponents. It's not happening at the moment, though, since he's slated tomorrow against a surging Hakuoho. About Hakuoho, he won against Tobizaru (the kinboshi guy himself) of all people. He's now 7-4 and can still fare a good basho - a bit unexpected at some point earlier in the tournament.

Takerufuji somehow disappointed today, as he failed to make short work of Daieisho and collapsed by retreating without a clear plan B (he attempted a push down but didn't work in the slightest). In the musubi no ichiban, Chiyoshoma also lost although he tried his best against Hoshoryu. The Nephew is too good on the belt to lose a yotsu match. Who surprised everyone was the front-runner, the mighty Kingbozan. I admit I expected Onosato to out-push him, but the opposite happened. Kimbo's driving force was a sight to behold.

So, the arasoi is thinning down. Kinbozan remains the sole leader at 10-1, while Oho is the sole runner-up for today with 9-2. The 8-3 pack is more substantial: Hoshoryu and Kirishima are out for blood, while Chiyoshoma and Takerufuji can only hope to hold out in the next days. There's also a substantial 7-4 pack to enter the fray in case of a collapse at the top. It is headed by an underwhelming Onosato alongside the more dangerous Daieisho and Abi, plus the interesting cases of Takayasu (sorry for jinxing him, PapaBear fans) and Hakuoho.

Now, despite his wonderful win today, I don't expect Kinbozan to hold the fort without losses. The man is strong on oshi (although not unbeatable, ask Abi), but might have trouble on the belt. Tomorrow he will have to face a still somewhat hopeful Hoshoryu, that is THE belt specialist. It will be interesting to see whether the Nephew will capitalize on his belt skills, or if he will end up like Onosato. Oho will be also tested in a match against Kirishima. Their precedents are 2-2, but we must also consider the context of those wins and losses. The two of them faced in three instances in which Kirishima was doing poorly, and one in which he was doing great - and of course Kirby won the one when he was doing great. Tomorrow's outcome will say a lot about their respective shapes - and hopes to Yusho also. The other Maegashira up-comers will be fed to the Ozeki instead. Chiyoshoma will face Onosato, and - I admit it - 'Shoma being not Kinbozan, I expect him to lose. In general, I think he will be the first to collapse in those final days. Takerufuji is somewhat surprisingly paired against Kotozakura. Quadboobs is on a 4-1 tear across the last five days, but I don't see him at 100% of power. I actually feel that tomorrow's bout will be dangerous for the Ozeki, since the Truck is the Truck for a reason.

Edited January 22 by Hankegami

[RabidJohn 1,777]

I suspected Kinbozan might win a big bout or two as the torikumi committee does its best to beat him down, but I did not expect him to do that to Onosato - it was fabulous!
And what a great comeback from yesterday's loss. 

While it won't break my heart if he doesn't win, I'll be quite content if he does.

[Kaninoyama 1,777]

An unknowing viewer watching today's penultimate bout would have concluded that Kinbozan, not Onosato, was the Ozeki of the two.