Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

[Miyam 7]

2 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Aonishiki instead... well, it was awkward. I am surprised everyone called it for Ryuden. Aonishiki clearly moved first, causing them both to go down. I cannot see even in the replays who touched first, and I was positive that a torinaoshi was to be called. But no one moved. Awkward.

Awkward to say the least yes, I was flabbergasted at the absence of mono-ii.

[Jakusotsu 5,982]

8 minutes ago, dingo said:

Kirishima tomorrow will be a big test [for Kinbozan], but if he wins I'll guess there'll be just one of the Waka brothers left, neither of whom are in prime condition this basho.  

There's still Daieisho or Oho on the menu.

[Hankegami 537]

12 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

There's still Daieisho or Oho on the menu.

Yep. I think it's going to be Oho, though, especially if the latter wins tomorrow. Also, Daieisho is most expected to take up Onosato on Day 15. I can see their match to be scrapped for a match vs. Kinbozan only if the Kazhak wins (12-2) and Oho loses (10-4), forcing the Committee to go for the highest wrestler available as his final test. Were Oho to win (and therefore providing a 11-3 scorer available), he'll be Kinbozan's final foe in a classical Darwinian match. I think it would be still Oho also in case both him and Kinbozan lose tomorrow (11-3 vs. 10-4), also not to scrap a top match for little reason. Furthermore, a M3w is supposed to be a less difficult foe than a S1w, and the NSK would certainly prefer to get a better chance for a 12-3Y.

About that, we still have a chance for a 11-4 Yusho (shudders). First of all, I tried to figure out the most likely pairings for this Sunday. I got: Kotozakura vs. Hoshoryu; Daieisho vs. Onosato; Takerufuji vs. Kirishima; Kinbozan vs. Oho. Now, all we need is 1) Hoshoryu wins vs. Takerufuji (11-3) tomorrow but loses to Kotozakura (11-4); 2) Daieisho wins both his matches (11-4); 3) Takerufuji loses tomorrow (10-4) but wins vs. Kirishima (11-4); 3) Kirishima wins vs. Kinbozan (11-3) but loses vs. Takerufuji (11-4); 4) Oho loses tomorrow (10-4) but wins vs. Kinbozan (11-4); Kinbozan loses both his matches (11-4). This nightmare scenario would entail a 5 men playoff between Hoshoryu, Daieisho, Kirishima, Oho, and Kinbozan. I don't know you, but I root for a 12-3Y scoreline at the least.

[Koorifuu 1,003]

Unrelated to everything, but I like Shiden's attitude. All his sportslike acts seem very genuine: apologising for mattas, showing concern for fallen opponents, appearing appreciative when others show concern for him. Generally, most of those acts feel like non-verbal "lip service", but not from him.

[Oskanohana 261]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

Unrelated to everything, but I like Shiden's attitude. All his sportslike acts seem very genuine: apologising for mattas, showing concern for fallen opponents, appearing appreciative when others show concern for him. Generally, most of those acts feel like non-verbal "lip service", but not from him.

He's been a favourite of mine even dating to his Shiba times. I was bummed when he finally got promoted to juryo (at the ripe age of 30) and wasn't allowed to fight because of that gambling nonsense that they finally decided that he didn't do but was still penalized preventively for it. It took him 8 more bashos in the makushita grinder but he finally got to be a proper sekitori. I'm hoping for a Churanoumi-esque late career surge for him. Pity, because this basho he had a great chance for a makuuchi promotion without getting stonewalled by the banzuke immobilists.

[Asashosakari 19,426]

4 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Also, Daieisho is most expected to take up Onosato on Day 15.

That pairing already happened on Day 9.

[Akinomaki 40,621]

Kinbozan is refreshingly straight in his comments, in the shukun interviews after the ozeki wins he already said on day 11 that he wants to gambarize to get the yusho and today he said 2 times that he wants the yusho.

[Akinomaki 40,621]

After being criticized by the fans that he sent nobody from the government to award the prime minister's cup last basho, Ishiba wants to award the cup himself this time. Last time the prime minister did this was 6 years ago Abe together with Trump and his cup (only awarded at the Natsu basho)  http://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/1688368?display=1

[Hankegami 537]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

That pairing already happened on Day 9.

Seriously?!?! And here goes my meticulous bout-per-bout analysis with Excel and everything...

Well, I guess this makes Daiesho quite available for Kinbozan if Oho loses on Day 14.

Edited January 24 by Hankegami

[Kotomiyama 172]

Congratulations to Tamawashi for his kachikoshi. Is there a list of the oldest rikishi who got a kachikoshi on Makuuchi? I wonder if Tamawashi is on the top 10...

[code_number3 706]

NSK posted this on their website, both in Japanese and English

https://www.sumo.or.jp/EnKyokai/information?id=680
 

Is the emperor coming to Kokugikan (tenran zumo)?

[Sumo Spiffy 568]

16 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Aonishiki instead... well, it was awkward. I am surprised everyone called it for Ryuden. Aonishiki clearly moved first, causing them both to go down. I cannot see even in the replays who touched first, and I was positive that a torinaoshi was to be called. But no one moved. Awkward.

In strict terms of who touched first, it was very close, since Aonishiki slipped his arm out of there but his head was still about level with Ryuden's arm. But the fact Aonishiki was underneath Ryuden counted against him, without question—if it's hard to tell who touched, the guy who's on top the whole time is getting the call.

As for the torinaoshi, that would have been reasonable, and there's been torinaoshis (or a lack thereof) for all sorts of reasons. Without an explanation (which, with no mono-ii, we didn't get), it's hard to know what the logic was. And I was a little surprised no mono-ii was called. But I wouldn't be surprised if they don't look kindly on dudes who let themselves drop headfirst under the weight of an opponent. 

I'm curious if Aonishiki's super bent-over stance is going to do the job in makuuchi. It looks like something that can be exploited by better opposition, but if he's comfortable in it and his balance is unusually strong in that position, it could work.

Edited January 25 by Sumo Spiffy

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

45 minutes ago, code_number3 said:

NSK posted this on their website, both in Japanese and English

https://www.sumo.or.jp/EnKyokai/information?id=680
 

Is the emperor coming to Kokugikan (tenran zumo)?

Either the Emperor of Prime Minister (or both). 

[Benevolance 2,501]

Kirishima just needs five more wins this tournament to get back to ozeki. 

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

1 hour ago, Benevolance said:

Kirishima just needs five more wins this tournament to get back to ozeki. 

Depending on how things shake out, wins today and tomorrow plus two tomoesen playoff wins would get him to four. Maybe that would be enough to satisfy the committee?

Edited January 25 by Kaninoyama

[dingo 1,265]

5 hours ago, code_number3 said:

NSK posted this on their website, both in Japanese and English

https://www.sumo.or.jp/EnKyokai/information?id=680
 

Is the emperor coming to Kokugikan (tenran zumo)?

 

4 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Either the Emperor of Prime Minister (or both). 

 

9 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

After being criticized by the fans that he sent nobody from the government to award the prime minister's cup last basho, Ishiba wants to award the cup himself this time. Last time the prime minister did this was 6 years ago Abe together with Trump and his cup (only awarded at the Natsu basho)  http://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/1688368?display=1

It's probably the prime minister as Akinomaki posted just above. 

[Akinomaki 40,621]

Bad sashi-chigae mark on Konosuke's record - maybe causing a tate-gyoji delay for him, after a spot opens

Edited January 25 by Akinomaki

[Ryoshishokunin 304]

55 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Bad sashi-chigae mark on Konosuke's record - maybe causing a tate-gyoji delay for him, after a spot opens

Given how close the (right) heel was to the sand, it's hard to fault him from his angle.   'Twas a millimetre or three, with a body in the way.   One look at the sand would cue the reversal (or the shimpan on that side, if they were watching the right thing), but I have sympathy for him getting that one wrong.  

[Jakusotsu 5,982]

Doing Takerufuji-Kirishima before Kinbozan-Oho is a bit pointless, isn't it?

[RabidJohn 1,795]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Bad sashi-chigae mark on Konosuke's record - maybe causing a tate-gyoji delay for him, after a spot opens

The odd sashi-chigae didn't stop the current tate-gyoji getting promoted.
I'd like to see Konosuke get bowled a bit more often, just to show he's really ready for purple tassles...

---

I think that may have been Kinbozan's best win yet. Kirishima had a better position and better belt grip, and he was on a great winning streak, but could not take him down.
Anyway, I'm delighted for him.

Ordinarily I'd be rooting for Oho tomorrow and the chance of a play-off, but I'd rather the NSK isn't presented with the temptation to promote Hoshoryu on a 12-3P.

[Akinomaki 40,621]

3 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

The odd sashi-chigae didn't stop the current tate-gyoji getting promoted.
I'd like to see Konosuke get bowled a bit more often, just to show he's really ready for purple tassles...

Konosuke will some day be Shonosuke, that is ensured, but with an excellent record he might have jumped the present Inosuke and become Shonosuke as early as Hatsu 2027. He had some other sashi-chigae as well though during his time as sanyaku gyoji - his tate-gyoji promotion could be delayed till mid 2028.

[Hankegami 537]

So, Day 14 is done. There's a lot to unfold.

The main news of the day is Kingbozan defeating Kirishima after a long bout on the belt. I was sincerely impressed, since Kimbo never resembled me a guy capable to do much more than a yorikiri with a belt grip. This win also confirms him as sole leader on the penultimate day. Now it's his tournament to lose. Tomorrow he has to win against Oho, who kept his 3 losses today. Oho looks good but somewhat Shodai-ish in his manners to me (not this Shodai, though). He doesn't give me the pants on fire attitude that Kinbozan has. Anyway, Oho wins - playoffs, Kinbozan wins - he gets a nice 13-2Y. Hoshoryu fans, of course, root for a playoff. Oho and Kinbozan don't have many precedents together, so there's little to be seen in the crystal ball. Kimbo won once when Oho was doing bad, and Oho won another time when Kimbo was doing awful. Tomorrow they will face each other for the first time while carrying both a good result.

Aside from that, the san'yaku might open up a few spot tomorrow. Wakamotoharu is deep down, and both Abi and Wakatakakage are 7-7. Abi will have to face Daieisho, who with 10 win can start an Ozeki run and a 11th win would be cozy from his point of view (he's not going to get the rank anytime soon, though, even with a 11-4 he would need a 14-1 next basho to reach 33 - at best it's the first of three, and Daieisho already failed a few shots to the rank). Wakatakakage will face fellow 7-7 Ichiyamamoto instead - easier on paper, but Itchy will just not give up his shot for the joi. The only contenders in the joi are Kirishima and Oho, so just one of them going MK would suit them both. Otherwise, it will be a battle of which 10+ guy gets shafted (Kirishima ATM, being one loss down).

Going beyond the yusho, I am most glad that Tamawashi got his 9th win. First time for him since Kyushu 2023. Tomorrow he has a shot to 10 (not happening to him since his 2022 Aki yusho).He actually has a softball on that, since he's paired against an ailing Kotoshoho tomorrow. Elders in the Committee gonna help fellow elders on the dohyo. Tamawashi actually looked a bit uneasy on his knees after the basho, but hopefully he's going to be alright. I am also happy for Hakuoho's 9th win. The boy has a lot of raw talent, but his injuries wrecked him. I hope he found his way finally. He will have a somewhat difficult path to 10 in Takayasu tomorrow. Props to Shonannoumi too. I wouldn't bet half a dime on him getting KK last week. Ah, and Shodai of course got MK after ruining the party here and there. Being a fan of his is almost a painful as being a fan of Mitakeumi - and I am a fan of them both somehow (I guess I like dark horses). He's followed by Tobizaru, the YokoSlayer himself. Never invite them to your party. And of course Mitakeumi is just a win away from being technically demotable now (sigh).

18 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Ordinarily I'd be rooting for Oho tomorrow and the chance of a play-off, but I'd rather the NSK isn't presented with the temptation to promote Hoshoryu on a 12-3P.

The funny thing is that his recent wins are making him looking good, so they might actually talk about that with a 12-3PP Yusho (three-way playoff if Oho and Hosh both win). Takakeisho did the same, poor guy (12-3J 13-2Y), but he had two (sitting out) Yokozuna above him, which makes a difference somehow. I am not enthusiast about such a scenario either, but I am still a Hosh fan so... playoff, but Hoshoryu does not take the Cup while he keeps his Yusho run alive for Haru with a 12-3DD? 

Edited January 25 by Hankegami

[Akinomaki 40,621]

No kensho list yet in the torikumi sheet, but the order of awards https://www.sumo.or.jp/pdf/honbasho/kansen/torikumi/2501_15.pdf

The NHK gold cup is awarded again, first after the interview, then the countries: Czechia, Emirates, Hungary,  Mongolia and now new Italy, Thailand, China, France, Mexico and last Bulgaria

[Hankegami 537]

1 minute ago, Akinomaki said:

No kensho list yet in the torikumi sheet, but the order of awards https://www.sumo.or.jp/pdf/honbasho/kansen/torikumi/2501_15.pdf

The NHK gold cup is awarded again, first after the interview, then the countries: Czechia, Emirates, Hungary,  Mongolia and now new Italy, Thailand, China, France, Mexico and last Bulgaria

Just looked up the Italian prize for obvious reasons (the list). A Murano glass plate, that's nice - although a bit souvenir-ish. If I get the gig correctly, it's not brand new but has been presented since 2023, and is for the Hatsu basho only.

[Shikona 148]

Even if Hoshoryu doesn't take the yusho, a win tomorrow does open the possibility of a promotion. Onokuni made it in 1987 with 13+12 both jun yusho. Yes, the promotions may have been easier then, but that's certainly reflected in his having gotten the nod despite two Y already on the banzuke, and Hokutoumi having just been promoted two basho earlier. Now we are empty, and you can imagine they have been hoping for the past year that someone would step up to let the battered Terunofuji retire.  Will be interesting to see. Except that having suggested this, I have probably put a massive jinx on his chances for a win.