Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

[Yarimotsu 578]

I've been thinking since before he reached sanyaku that Hoshoryu simply must become a yokozuna, and I think he's finally done it. Today went exactly as it should've - Oho playing his part was the most in doubt for me.

The "what could've been" of a yokozuna-less era and all that comes with seems to have been avoided.

Hopefully many years of good sumo to come from him. 

 

Also if you haven't seen Nabatame and Aonishiki today, that was an excellent bout from both.

[Shikona 148]

3 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

So, they would discuss it at the Yokozuna Deliberation Committee in the following days, so there is a chance. 

I think in Hoshyoryu's favor it could be the fact that he did a lot of yorikiri sumo, and for me at least, a yokozuna is someone who does a belt sumo. Three wins on a final day without looking troubled is also a very good factor in his favor. Despite the three losses it was a pretty solid basho for the Nephew. 

Yes, if you have to win 14 matches to take a 12-3 yusho, perhaps Kisenosato will feel better about it. The three wins in a row today are certainly a good impression to leave the committee with.

[sumochuck 1]

1 minute ago, Koorifuu said:

I might or might've not waken my wife up in celebration.

I was too excited to wait so I watched on my phone in bed at about 5:45am this morning, and it was VERY difficult controlling my excitement. I fist-bumped in the air a few times...I suppose when she finally wakes up I'll know whether or not I disturbed her.

[Shikona 148]

2 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

I just hope he follows the model of Kakuryu and Terunofuji rather than that of his uncle and Hakuho. 

 

Or perhaps nearer the records of the latter with the humility of the former.

[Kotogouryuu 131]

Well that was fun. For some basho now, I've found myself drifting off a bit. I'd catch up days of matches because I just forgot to watch them. But this time I was glued to the screen, especially on the last day.

I do like the emotion of Hoshoryu's face at the end. He worked hard for that yusho.

[Thorbjarn 215]

3 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

More recently, perhaps, and as I said, he also had his supporters. But early on after he reached Makuuchi, there were also quite a few detractors even while his performances told a different story. 

In any case, never been a big fan, but you can't deny his ability. Whether it comes now or later, he'll get there eventually and will likely be a strong and deserving Yokozuna. 

[...]

 

I totally disagree, at least regarding this Forum.

Right from the get go, the narrative was for Hoshoryu to follow in his uncle's footsteps among those who were easily hyped. Some of the hype even got going before even maezumo.

Those who were a little more conservative thought there was a shot for him to get into sanyaku and maybe even Yokozuna If he gained a bit more physical strength and some other pieces fell into place.

People always saw the potential, but with the tumultous change of guard, the general consensus was that Hoshoryu has not been quite there yet. Which was probably fair to assess up until the last two bashos.

As for Yokozuna Promotion, there are three factors making me thing Hoshoryu has a good shot:

- the results: the most important two records of the last two bashos, while Not incredibly outstanding, fullfil the criteria "equivalent of Yusho + Yusho." Even with the Yusho being less Ws, the actual Tournament win coming after the equivalent has immense worth. In General, the Ozeki run was pretty stable and the last makekoshi of Hoshoryu's run in Makuuchi dates from November 2021. Shows how he is undoubtedly among the best performers.

- His Style of Sumo: great technical mixture of traditional mawashi Game and the mongol bok-influenced Style. Not only is it good to look at, it's proven to be good Yokozuna Sumo. He also doesn't seem to Feed into the "ill-tempered-Mongolian" stereotype, at least I don't recall him getting criticized for his behaviour.

- the Timing: even before the Terunofuji intai, the time had come for a new Yokozuna. Since the rest is "good enough", my guess is that the YDC will suggest Hoshoryu and the JSA will agree and pay him a visit.

[Octofuji 357]

Until today I'd have agreed with the others who said it's better not to promote Hoshoryu even with a 12-3 yusho.

But I've been swayed by the fantastic quality of today's bouts. That's got to be Yokozuna-level sumo.

I've sometimes thought of him unfavourably compared with Kirishima and even Wakatakakage, but it's easy to forget that he's still just 25 (and the youngest Yokozuna since Hakuho) and hopefully not even reached his peak yet.

Edited January 26 by Octofuji

[Leoben 139]

Thinking about why they may/may not promote him, I've got:

For:

- He was on a declared tsuna run and he won the yusho.

- The manner in which he won the yusho showed determination and the ability to perform under pressure.

- The eyeball test. He does prototypical Yokozuna sumo. He has evolved from being a throwing specialist that over relied on his judo to a more rounded style, using effective pushing to set up a powerful yotsu game.

- Consistency. He hasn't had a losing score since November 2021 when he was M5. 

- No injury concerns. He has missed only 5 matches since his debut in 2018, and has shown the willingness to fight while being hurt and get a winning score.

- Terunofuji's retirement and the pressure for the top rank to not be empty.

Against:

- 12-3 is not a strong yusho.

- 25 in 2 with only one yusho is a sketchy scoreline. Easy to see it being considered below the Yokozuna standard.

- The Takakeisho precedent, being denied twice recently with the same score. 

- He was 8-7 in September.

- Only his 2nd yusho, and he doesn't have a ton of jun yusho either.

- He still loses matches in an un-Yokozuna-like manner every tournament (eg. Hiradoumi)

 

Whether the YDC will consider these factors, potentially others I'm ignoring, and how they will balance them I have no idea. I could see the first one (winning the yusho while being on a run) taking precedence over everything else and earning him promotion... just as easily as I could see them saying 12-3/25-2 isn't good enough and asking for one more result in March. Curious to know what others think.

 

Edited January 26 by Leoben

[Koorifuu 994]

And here I am changing the topic again...

... I hope Chiyoshoma gets a bollocking for that one.

[Kotomiyama 172]

Sometimes I jump from the couch for sheer excitement after a great bout. Today I did it twice.

Before today I didn't think a yusho would be enough to grant a promotion for Hoshoryu, but his performance today was a display of power and hunger. I even saw glimpses of his uncle. Nevertheless, I would like the YDC to be harsh and demand another yusho in March. I don't like a Yokozuna handling kinboshi in the first quarter of a basho...

[Gurowake 4,052]

3 hours ago, hakutorizakura said:

So the kyokai trolled everyone by saying that they would hand out 7 prizes, but only gave 3 in the end 

There were two sets of mutually exclusive ones, so only at most 5.  Since Hoshoryu won the Yusho instead of either of the others and Tamawashi lost, that cut it down to 3.

[just_some_guy 278]

Hate to say I told you so (especially since I didn't tell you so) but I'm not surprised Kinbozan and Oho couldn't see it through. I just don't think they're "there" yet. I'm interested to see how they fare going forward; Kinbozan in particular looked like an absolute crusher for much of this basho.

I'm torn on how I feel about whether Hoshoryu should get the rope. On one hand it feels like a soft promotion, on the other he did what they asked of him and we're Yokozunaless otherwise. Not that we must have one, but they're good for business so I have a feeling that will affect the decision even if the powers that be don't come out and say it.

He also still seems to be improving, so retroactively the decision might end up looking like a no-brainer if he gets promoted and performs well.

[Seiyashi 4,087]

Honestly, the past few years of sumo had enough "will he won't he, and he didn't" that when I saw the leaderboard halfway through the basho, I didn't have high hopes. 

Very glad to have been proven wrong otherwise. Omedetō Hōshōryū. 

Edited January 26 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

Since nobody even mentioned it yet: what the heck was that torinaoshi about that robbed Kayo of his Makuuchi promotion?

[Koorifuu 994]

44 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Since nobody even mentioned it yet: what the heck was that torinaoshi about that robbed Kayo of his Makuuchi promotion?

Yes. That was daylight robbery. I have no idea what their idea was.

[code_number3 704]

Takasu is ready for march Yokozuna Dohyo-iri

 

[Reonito 1,457]

48 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Yes. That was daylight robbery. I have no idea what their idea was.

Anyone understand the explanation? Did they rule that his foot turned over right when Hakuyozan touched? If that's not it, then I'm  -- he certainly didn't seem dead, and he didn't touch out until quite a bit later.

[Reonito 1,457]

8 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Daieisho, Kirishima and Oho have all recorded scores which could be the start of an ozeki run. And if Kotozakura doesn't improve drastically in March we are going to have an ozeki deficit come May.

If Daieisho takes a 13+ win yusho in March ... oh, who am I kidding. I'm guessing Kotozakura will get his 8, assuming whatever ails him isn't a major long-term issue.

[Reonito 1,457]

I thought these were the right calls at the time, but you gotta feel a bit for Takakeisho.

[MrGrumpyGills 133]

27 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I thought these were the right calls at the time, but you gotta feel a bit for Takakeisho.

I'm still angry about that (and will be even more so when/if they promote Hōshōryū right away), and for the record I would've been angry on behalf of any other rikishi as well, not just for Takakeishō. The results were there, it just wasn't an official run after the jun-yusho (each time) for whatever reason.
But I don't want to get on everyones' nerves so I'll be quiet now Sorry for the rant, please ignore me

[BigKahunaMan 4]

When Oho and Hoshoryu were first coming up, I felt like Oho had the right physique but not enough technique yet, and Hoshoryu was the other way around; all he needed was to bulk up a bit more and he'd be set. Well, the latter has happened, and maybe Oho is finally starting to evolve (or that busted orbital bone that left the hematoma above his right eye knocked a little more sumo sense into him).

Should make the first Grandson Bowl where both of them are sanyaku some interesting watching next time, if nothing else. KTZ trying to clear kadoban and Oho out for revenge from Day 8.

Edited January 26 by BigKahunaMan

[Gurowake 4,052]

20 minutes ago, MrGrumpyGills said:

The results were there, it just wasn't an official run after the jun-yusho (each time) for whatever reason.

Yeah, this is the key.  He wasn't considered tsunatori after either of those 12 win tournaments.  In one he wasn't in a playoff.  In the other, he lost the playoff to a maegashira.  Those aren't the kind of results that are "yusho-equivalent".  Hoshoryu's 13-win runner-up performance was effectively a yusho-equivalent, losing the last match of the tournament to someone else who would be tsunatori, when winning the match would have given him the yusho.  Being that close is generally perfectly fine, and 13 wins is a significantly better look than 12 even if you want to say that Takakeisho was just as close as winning as Hoshoryu because he would have won the yusho has he beaten the champion in their honwari match, though that match not happening Day 15 has a lot worse optics. 

So the 12D-13Y certainly "looks" better than Hoshoryu's 13J-12Y from a perspective of just looking at the numbers and letters, but that doesn't tell the whole story.  Was there a result that could have gotten Takakeisho promoted after each of those 12-win runner-ups?  Possibly, but it would have needed to be at least 14 wins given the way he was the runner-up.  With Hoshoryu, any Yusho other than 11-4 was going to be enough to be considered a Yusho-equivalent for tsuna purposes and that's what he got, whereas Takakeisho had more to prove in the second tournament each time and didn't quite get there.

I still think there's a reasonable chance that the YDC decides against promoting him, unless I missed something and it's already been decided.  It's definitely a very fine line between these results, and given Hoshoryu's fairly young age, they could easily want him to do a bit more.  Certainly another Yusho next tournament would do it and likely any 13 win result would as well, and the same result as the last two basho sometime in the future would also probably be enough.

Edited January 26 by Gurowake

[MrGrumpyGills 133]

OTOH, Hōshōryū lost to M2 Atamifuji (finished with 5-10), M4 Shōdai (6-9) and M5 Hiradoumi (7-8), which isn't a good look either. Yes, the playoff was awesome and decisive, but I'd still say he should need another yusho. I think they'll promote him this time, though.

[Benevolance 2,501]

Yeah, but Shodai only shows up for matches against good opponents, so that's actually a point in Hoshoryu's favour. Shodai's long term goal is to become a yokozuna-killer, lollygag in the upper rank and file, and earn sweet, sweet kinboshi. 

[Akinomaki 40,481]

25 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Yeah, this is the key.  He wasn't considered tsunatori after either of those 12 win tournaments.  In one he wasn't in a playoff.  In the other, he lost the playoff to a maegashira.  Those aren't the kind of results that are "yusho-equivalent".  Hoshoryu's 13-win runner-up performance was effectively a yusho-equivalent, losing the last match of the tournament to someone else who would be tsunatori, when winning the match would have given him the yusho.  Being that close is generally perfectly fine, and 13 wins is a significantly better look than 12 even if you want to say that Takakeisho was just as close as winning as Hoshoryu because he would have won the yusho has he beaten the champion in their honwari match, though that match not happening Day 15 has a lot worse optics. 

So the 12D-13Y certainly "looks" better than Hoshoryu's 13J-12Y from a perspective of just looking at the numbers and letters, but that doesn't tell the whole story.  Was there a result that could have gotten Takakeisho promoted after each of those 12-win runner-ups?  Possibly, but it would have needed to be at least 14 wins given the way he was the runner-up.  With Hoshoryu, any Yusho other than 11-4 was going to be enough to be considered a Yusho-equivalent for tsuna purposes and that's what he got, whereas Takakeisho had more to prove in the second tournament each time and didn't quite get there.

I still think there's a reasonable chance that the YDC decides against promoting him, unless I missed something and it's already been decided.  It's definitely a very fine line between these results, and given Hoshoryu's fairly young age, they could easily want him to do a bit more.  Certainly another Yusho next tournament would do it and likely any 13 win result would as well, and the same result as the last two basho sometime in the future would also probably be enough.

There is close to no chance that the YDC decides against him, after all relevant NSK officials endorsed it and NHK and other media already celebrate his promotion. He WAS on an official yokozuna run, this yusho equivalent myth really needs to be eradicated - any convincing runner-up result starts a run, because the YDC rules say so - and the NSK officials had declared both ozeki to be on a run before the basho.