Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

[Akinomaki 40,421]

Hoshoryu main sponsor Takasu declared he'll order yokozuna kesho mawashi (a set) NOW http://www.daily.co.jp/general/2025/01/26/0018583639.shtml

Edited January 26 by Akinomaki

[Akinomaki 40,421]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

Anyone understand the explanation? Did they rule that his foot turned over right when Hakuyozan touched? If that's not it, then I'm  -- he certainly didn't seem dead, and he didn't touch out until quite a bit later.

Exactly, Kokonoe head shimpan declared they saw it as simultaneous that the hand touched and the foot turned - usually nobody cares any-more that the foot turns, but apparently Hakuyozan has strong support among the oyakata (well, he's from the heya of the department head)

Edited January 26 by Akinomaki

[Gospodin 191]

44 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

Yeah, but Shodai only shows up for matches against good opponents, so that's actually a point in Hoshoryu's favour. Shodai's long term goal is to become a yokozuna-killer, lollygag in the upper rank and file, and earn sweet, sweet kinboshi. 

Four Sanyaku scalps out of six wins . If I had to put my money down, I´d say he doesn´t go on a binge the night before matches that are important to him, whereas his "preparation" is less proper on other days...

[Asashimaru 17]

1 hour ago, Benevolance said:

Yeah, but Shodai only shows up for matches against good opponents, so that's actually a point in Hoshoryu's favour. Shodai's long term goal is to become a yokozuna-killer, lollygag in the upper rank and file, and earn sweet, sweet kinboshi. 

So for the 2nd straight day 'Shodai B' has entered the dohyo, as I see it.
But who am I to judge ... Tomozuna Oyakata raises his right hand as he sits behind the cash register of the souvenir store and calls over Hiro to discuss the matter.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

5 hours ago, just_some_guy said:

He also still seems to be improving, so retroactively the decision might end up looking like a no-brainer if he gets promoted and performs well.

Yeah, that's the big issue, both ways. I'm generally in the "let rikishi sink or swim" camp and in favour of more permissive promotions, but obviously that's much harder to do with yokozuna than other ranks because sink = intai. At least a promotion for Hoshoryu would get the "you can't get promoted to yokozuna with less than 26 wins" crowd to shut up for a while, but it's still a fact that his run is essentially a "naked" 25 wins without any particular supporting arguments based on past performance...the best one can say in his favour is that he's young-ish, that he's been a remarkably stable (if not especially high level) ozeki ever since he got promoted to the rank, and that his actual sumo looks as though he has turned a corner since September. He'll certainly be the biggest case of "promoted on potential" since Futahaguro and Hokutoumi if they go ahead, and I truly hope they're not handing him a poisoned chalice.

(Also, I hope that this won't be just a "we need a replacement yokozuna now" promotion after which the next guys will be asked to adhere to tougher requirements again because "we already have Hoshoryu". That would annoy me immensely.)

Edited January 26 by Asashosakari

[Akinomaki 40,421]

24 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

He'll certainly be the biggest case of "promoted on potential" since Futahaguro and Hokutoumi if they go ahead, and I truly hope they're not handing him a poisoned chalice.

(Also, I hope that this won't be just a "we need a replacement yokozuna now" promotion after which the next guys will be asked to adhere to tougher requirements again because "we already have Hoshoryu". That would annoy me immensely.)

Mirror result of Hokutoumi, the rijicho was slightly worse, with the yusho first and then the runner-up - but you can't be annoyed that the decisive factor for the unanimous condoning of the promotion is that London is coming: all banzuke decisions are largely influenced by the demand for a rank, when there is enough of one, the requirements go up.

[Kaninoyama 1,777]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

Anyone understand the explanation? Did they rule that his foot turned over right when Hakuyozan touched? If that's not it, then I'm  -- he certainly didn't seem dead, and he didn't touch out until quite a bit later.

If I remember the call and shimpan explanation correctly, on the video replay Tokushoryu (doing commentary) and the announcer were focused on the turned over foot as the only plausible reason for the mono-ii, but the explanation given by the shimpan was that both were out at the same time, thus the torinaoshi. 

Edited January 27 by Kaninoyama

[dingo 1,263]

I'm not a fan of weak yokozuna promotions. I know the pickings are meager and the Europe events are coming but couldn't the Kyokai at least wait for a yokozuna who can string together at least 14 wins in one basho? Hoshoryu's 13-2 last basho was his single highest win count in his career. On the other hand he has a record of an 8-7 once per year. I guess having yokozuna privileges can paper over the potential weak performances in the future but that doesn't change the fact that almost everyone in makuuchi, including Shodai, can start milking kinboshi soon. I suppose that also happened when Terunofuji was injured but that was a different case. 

And I can only agree with Asashosakari, I hope this is now the new threshold for yokozuna promotion. Then we can probably have a few soon, and perhaps a few additional ozeki as well. 

[Reonito 1,449]

25 minutes ago, dingo said:

I'm not a fan of weak yokozuna promotions. I know the pickings are meager and the Europe events are coming but couldn't the Kyokai at least wait for a yokozuna who can string together at least 14 wins in one basho? Hoshoryu's 13-2 last basho was his single highest win count in his career. On the other hand he has a record of an 8-7 once per year. I guess having yokozuna privileges can paper over the potential weak performances in the future but that doesn't change the fact that almost everyone in makuuchi, including Shodai, can start milking kinboshi soon. I suppose that also happened when Terunofuji was injured but that was a different case. 

And I can only agree with Asashosakari, I hope this is now the new threshold for yokozuna promotion. Then we can probably have a few soon, and perhaps a few additional ozeki as well. 

Harumafuji was a noted kinboshi dispenser, even in his prime, despite earning promotion with consecutive zensho and collecting 5 more yusho as Yokozuna. Most Yokozuna aren't Hakuho, and Hoshoryu has plenty of room to get stronger.

Edited January 27 by Reonito

[Asashosakari 19,309]

42 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Harumafuji was a noted kinboshi dispenser, even in his prime, despite earning promotion with consecutive zensho and collecting 5 more yusho as Yokozuna. Most Yokozuna aren't Hakuho, and Hoshoryu has plenty of room to get stronger.

Although pretty much everybody thought that yokozuna shouldn't be built like Harumafuji was, so the kinboshi count was kind of treated as a "can't be helped" thing. He was just always at risk of being overpowered in random matches, the size of most makuuchi rikishi being what it is. Hoshoryu physically fits the model of a yokozuna much more already and might continue to add more weight before he's done finding his ideal size. I'm not so sure he'd be given the same leeway by fans and authorities to give out kinboshi by the bushelful or to resort to frequent trickery to avoid doing it. People want the Hoshoryu from the last two tournaments, not the one we had until September.

Also, and perhaps I'm going to overstate the case here, but: Harumafuji was the "junior yokozuna" to Hakuho from the start, which tempered the expectations. Hoshoryu would be the first one here from what we hope will be at least a couple more in the next few years. If he's quickly overshadowed, it could hurt his reputation more than the pure results may actually deserve.

Edited January 27 by Asashosakari

[Sumo Spiffy 556]

 

1 hour ago, dingo said:

I'm not a fan of weak yokozuna promotions. I know the pickings are meager and the Europe events are coming but couldn't the Kyokai at least wait for a yokozuna who can string together at least 14 wins in one basho? Hoshoryu's 13-2 last basho was his single highest win count in his career.

The YDC is probably threading the logical needle here—ie. Takakeisho's 25 wins and one yusho wasn't as good because a 12-3 JY isn't really a yusho equivalent, whereas a 13-2 JY is. However, although Teru's intai undoubtedly helped Hoshoryu, I have to think the committee looked beyond that and understood they're in a situation where, without a promotion now, it's hard to say when another yokozuna would rise. 11-4 in March would have killed ozeki Hoshoryu's candidacy. But if he's 11-4 in March as a yokozuna, then not only does the sport have the grand champion it wants, he just proved he belongs there.

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

(Also, I hope that this won't be just a "we need a replacement yokozuna now" promotion after which the next guys will be asked to adhere to tougher requirements again because "we already have Hoshoryu". That would annoy me immensely.)

I don't disagree, but until and unless they promote a similar candidate again, this looks like an exception. Part of it is the logic re: if not now, when, but it's more because, I hope, that at least part of the rationale for essentially auto-promoting Hoshoryu is that his sumo has clearly changed for the better over the last two tournaments. High-level athletes in any sport rarely turn a corner like this by changing their approach to the game so noticeably. If Onosato or Kotozakura, for example, go on a yokozuna run, it's unlikely they'll do so with a significantly different approach. They'll just be better at their current game plans, with some improvement in other skills around the edges. And if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if they get asked for one more basho should they also go 13-2 JY/12-3 Y.

TBH, in this exact scenario, it really depends on whether the YDC counts the 13-2 JY as a genuine yusho-equivalent. That is, Onosato or Koto could be promoted with Hoshoryu's exact finishes, but not a Keisho-style 12-3 JY/13-2 Y.

Edit: I just clicked back and saw Guro saying something similar. Before all this, it didn't occur to me that this fine a difference could be what put Hoshoryu over the edge, which is why I said several times that I figured the run was done after Hiradoumi beat him. But, if this is a more normal viewpoint than I realized, maybe it was always possible and just nobody did it.

Edited January 27 by Sumo Spiffy

[Asashosakari 19,309]

BTW, I note that sanity prevailed belatedly at Nikkan Sports (and possibly other outlets). This article and this one now say that Hoshoryu's chance of promotion has become "high" / "very likely", whereas they originally boldly proclaimed that the recommendation by the shimpan department effectively assured his promotion (事実上、横綱昇進が内定). Originals archived here and here.

Edited January 27 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,050]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Harumafuji was a noted kinboshi dispenser, even in his prime, despite earning promotion with consecutive zensho and collecting 5 more yusho as Yokozuna. Most Yokozuna aren't Hakuho, and Hoshoryu has plenty of room to get stronger.

The funny thing about that query: the one tournament that he gave up 4 kinboshi, he won the Yusho too.

[Tiger Tanaka 225]

I like Hoshoryu and his sumo a lot, but I wish they hold off on promotion. A promotion this early without having shown sustained dominance puts a lot of pressure for a rikishi to set a new bar of performance they haven’t shown yet.

if he gets off to a slow start, the pressure becomes much more immense and will likely need to pull out of bashos which just has a snowballing effect of pressure.

Kakuryu had 4 tournaments at Yokozuna where he started off 2-2 during his 7 year run. 3 of these he pulled out of early.

Harumafuji had 7 such tournaments (though four were in his last year when his injuries had caught up to him).

Hoshoryu had three straight tournaments of starting 2-2 (including 2-4 in September) and they were the three tournaments right before his last two Yokozuna run basho.

But as said, I like Hoshoryu, and I hope the last two are indicative of a new level of sumo he’s reached and the bar he continues to set moving forward so that we see a prolonged Yokozuna run.

 

[Reonito 1,449]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

BTW, I note that sanity prevailed belatedly at Nikkan Sports (and possibly other outlets). This article and this one now say that Hoshoryu's chance of promotion has become "high" / "very likely", whereas they originally boldly proclaimed that the recommendation by the shimpan department effectively assured his promotion (事実上、横綱昇進が内定). Originals archived here and here.

Is it correct that a simple majority of the YDC is sufficient for promotion after YY, while a 2/3 majority is needed when an equivalent is involved?

[sahaven111 176]

15 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Is it correct that a simple majority of the YDC is sufficient for promotion after YY, while a 2/3 majority is needed when an equivalent is involved?

I know you asked Asashosakari and not myself, but I was under the impression that it had to be unanimous no matter what.

[Reonito 1,449]

34 minutes ago, sahaven111 said:

I know you asked Asashosakari and not myself, but I was under the impression that it had to be unanimous no matter what.

I saw somebody knowledgable offer the version above on Twitter.

[I am the Yokozuna 193]

It was mentioned on the broadcast yesterday that a 2/3 majority would be necessary 

[dingo 1,263]

6 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

 

The YDC is probably threading the logical needle here—ie. Takakeisho's 25 wins and one yusho wasn't as good because a 12-3 JY isn't really a yusho equivalent, whereas a 13-2 JY is. However, although Teru's intai undoubtedly helped Hoshoryu, I have to think the committee looked beyond that and understood they're in a situation where, without a promotion now, it's hard to say when another yokozuna would rise. 11-4 in March would have killed ozeki Hoshoryu's candidacy. But if he's 11-4 in March as a yokozuna, then not only does the sport have the grand champion it wants, he just proved he belongs there.

I don't disagree, but until and unless they promote a similar candidate again, this looks like an exception. Part of it is the logic re: if not now, when, but it's more because, I hope, that at least part of the rationale for essentially auto-promoting Hoshoryu is that his sumo has clearly changed for the better over the last two tournaments. High-level athletes in any sport rarely turn a corner like this by changing their approach to the game so noticeably. If Onosato or Kotozakura, for example, go on a yokozuna run, it's unlikely they'll do so with a significantly different approach. They'll just be better at their current game plans, with some improvement in other skills around the edges. And if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if they get asked for one more basho should they also go 13-2 JY/12-3 Y.

TBH, in this exact scenario, it really depends on whether the YDC counts the 13-2 JY as a genuine yusho-equivalent. That is, Onosato or Koto could be promoted with Hoshoryu's exact finishes, but not a Keisho-style 12-3 JY/13-2 Y.

Edit: I just clicked back and saw Guro saying something similar. Before all this, it didn't occur to me that this fine a difference could be what put Hoshoryu over the edge, which is why I said several times that I figured the run was done after Hiradoumi beat him. But, if this is a more normal viewpoint than I realized, maybe it was always possible and just nobody did it.

Very long quote, but all valid points from the pont of view that the Kyokai is desperate for another yokozuna quickly and Hoshoryu just happened to fit he bill, barely. I mean one more loss over 2 basho and he wouldn't be a candidate. What I don't understand is why the rush. As mentioned, they're putting a lot of credits down and if it doesn't work out for some reason then we have another yokozuna who will be kyujo half the time cause he can't stop losing. But that's the negative point of view, it's up to Hoshoryu to avoid that situation. 

Edited January 27 by dingo

[Jakusotsu 5,960]

Quite hilarious. After day 9 the unanimous consensus here was that Hoshoryu's tsuna run is dead and done. Now everbody starts hailing the 74th yokozuna. It only takes a refusal by the YDC and I need a new set of undies.

[Kotomiyama 172]

Believing that this could be a soft promotion is compatible with thinking that Hoshoryu has what it takes to be a successful Yokozuna. Those are different matters.

[Kintamayama 45,093]

2 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Quite hilarious. After day 9 the unanimous consensus here was that Hoshoryu's tsuna run is dead and done. Now everbody starts hailing the 74th yokozuna. It only takes a refusal by the YDC and I need a new set of undies.

To be fair, Houshouryuu has been looking quite awesome from day 10 on, and Shirley on senshuraku. The only question in my mind is Unryu or Shiranui?

[Jakusotsu 5,960]

1 minute ago, Kintamayama said:

The only question in my mind is Unryu or Shiranui?

Unkuryu

[Asashosakari 19,309]

An op-ed in Sponichi claims that the majority of the judging department's members were not in favour of recommending promotion, and quotes words of praise for Hoshoryu's efforts by department boss Takadagawa, who also says that he essentially took charge of the (apparently not at all straight-forward) situation and make the decision to go for it.

Edited January 27 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 45,093]

12 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Unkuryu

Ohhh.. Hakkaku will haunt you for that..