Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

[Kamitsuumi 400]

Your interpretation is incorrect on two counts. First, 準優勝 and 優勝に準ずる成績 are different. Second, this is actually これ(2場所連続優勝)に準ずる成績, that is, equivalent to two consecutive yusho, not two consecutive yusho-equivalents

[Akinomaki 40,471]

1 hour ago, Kamitsuumi said:

Your interpretation is incorrect on two counts. First, 準優勝 and 優勝に準ずる成績 are different. Second, this is actually これ(2場所連続優勝)に準ずる成績, that is, equivalent to two consecutive yusho, not two consecutive yusho-equivalents

Your interpretation is correct, still, it is not equivalent and not defined, what that next best/nearly result is - and 優勝に準ずる成績 is in effect the jun-yusho, not just any, but a close one  - thus my interpretation is correct as well. You can extend the range to 2 jun-yusho, it won't be done now, but it might be done some day. There is a reason that the YDC discusses the promotion chances each time an ozeki gets a good jun-yusho, not just after a yusho, and because of that, Hoshoryu was on official yokozuna run in the first place.

You interpretation limits the range, like any translation does, and that is simply wrong - they have much more room for decision, Japanese is fuzzy enough to be bent to anything they need - my interpretation points out what room there is, even though that room will hardly ever be used.

Edited January 27 by Akinomaki

[Dapeng 235]

47 minutes ago, Kamitsuumi said:

Your interpretation is incorrect on two counts. First, 準優勝 and 優勝に準ずる成績 are different. Second, this is actually これ(2場所連続優勝)に準ずる成績, that is, equivalent to two consecutive yusho, not two consecutive yusho-equivalents

"優勝に準ずる成績" is either a "yusho-dotten" (playoff loss), or a score (eg. 14-1 in Hakuho's days or 13-2 these days) that is in most cases would be a yusho score.

[Akinomaki 40,471]

1 hour ago, Kamitsuumi said:

Your interpretation is incorrect on two counts. First, 準優勝 and 優勝に準ずる成績 are different. Second, this is actually これ(2場所連続優勝)に準ずる成績, that is, equivalent to two consecutive yusho, not two consecutive yusho-equivalents

That is your interpretation, but it is not necessarily the combined result of 2 basho, the rules allow for my interpretation

1. 横綱に推薦する力士は品格、力量が抜群であること。
2. 大関で2場所連続優勝した力士を推薦することを原則とする。
3. 第2項に準ずる好成績を挙げた力士を推薦する場合は、出席委員の3分の2以上の決議を必要とする。

A good result close to that in paragraph 2 - that can be referring to 2 yusho in a row, but also to just the yusho as such

[Sumo Spiffy 560]

4 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Hakkaku riji-cho has quietly guided things back to the way they used to be when he got his promotion as Hokutoumi.

Back then it was almost like a periodic review of yusho-winning ozeki, taking three, four or more basho into account.

That definitely applies to Kisenosato's promotion, and probably to Hoshoryu's as well.

Mm... Kisenosato was smashing dudes for a year and just not getting a yusho out of it before he finally made it over the hump. It's hard to imagine looking further back at Hoshoryu's record would've helped his case.

[Gurowake 4,051]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

That is the usual misleading translation - 準ずる成績 is not equal equivalent - it may seem so, but it is just the jun-yusho

So I guess the hiccup in the translation here is that 準 typically means "equivalent" or something like that, but in the phrase jun-yusho (準優勝) it very explicitly refers to something less than a yusho, and often not even close to equivalent (see the number of times Jun-yushos to Hakuho's 14 or 15 were only 11).  The phrase jun-zuru (準ずる) is given the English translation "to correspond or be proportionate to" on Wikitionary, and in this context would seem to be best expressed as "equivalent to" in English.  It would then seem that Akinomaki is claiming that the meaning of 準 is being transferred from what it means in jun-yusho rather than what it means in the more common phrase jun-zuru.

Edited January 27 by Gurowake

[Katooshu 3,221]

Kisenosato's year leading up to his promotion: 13-2, 13-2, 12-3, 10-5, 12-3, 14-1

If I saw those numbers without context, I'd assume that person was already a yokozuna, a good one too. It's quite remarkable only one of those was a yusho. Kise also had 4 years of being a double digit ozeki prior to that, including a trio of 13-2s. If only he had Terunofuji's fortune with 12-3/13-2 yusho.

Hoshoryu's 20 or so straight KK show he's a consistent winner, not likely to bomb out, but definitely not on the same scale of success or longevity, e.g. his last year: 11-4, 10-5, 9-4-2, 8-7, 13-2, 12-3 (his other three as ozeki were 10-4-1, 10-5, 8-7).  A good ozeki, but not numbers that really jump out as saying 'ya this guy has been performing like a yokozuna for a while, might as well give him a break so we can make it official'.

Edited January 27 by Katooshu

[Gurowake 4,051]

3 hours ago, Kamitsuumi said:

equivalent to two consecutive yusho, not two consecutive yusho-equivalents

In looking up the topic on my previous post I came across a Japanese blog that, as best as I can tell, seemed to agree with this interpretation, without using any English.  It's two consecutive yusho, or scores that show equivalency to such a feat, not two consecutive scores that are equivalent to a yusho.  That's definitely the case for Kisenosato.  With that interpretation, it gets a bit harder to draw the line between Takakeisho's 12-13 and Hoshoryu's 13-12; I think though that the 2 playoff bout wins are definitely a huge boost in Hoshoryu's favor and could easily have been part of the calculus here. 

[Godango 984]

Bottom line is this case could have justifiably and on precedent gone either way. I'm as surprised as anyone that they chose to promote but I don't see anything wrong with the decision, and I'm happy at the outcome.

[Kachikoshi 32]

If Hoshoryu had won one more match this tournament then he would have had “26 in 2” which many of you seem to think is the standard and nobody would have had a problem with him being promoted.

He missed that target by a single win. I see it as equivalent to going 32 in 3 for an ozeki run. It’s a tiny bit short but it’s the sort of thing that can be forgiven if there are special circumstances, and in this case there are definitely special circumstances.

[Kishinoyama 595]

The NSK will do whatever they want. The guess the banzuke players can attest to that. 

[Sumo Spiffy 560]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I think though that the 2 playoff bout wins are definitely a huge boost in Hoshoryu's favor and could easily have been part of the calculus here. 

I really hope not. Consider this alternate set of circumstances:

• Day 14, Kiri beats Kinbo and Takanosho beats Oho. Hoshoryu still beats Takerufuji.
• Day 15 matches:
  • 11-3 Kiri v. 10-4 Takerufuji.
  • 11-3 Kinbo v. 10-4 Oho.
  • 11-3 Hoshoryu v. Kotozakura.

If Takeru and Oho win their fights, Hoshoryu gets a 12-win yusho without a playoff. More to the point, this alternative happens with absolutely no change in what he does. Either this yusho should also have earned him the rope, or he shouldn't be getting the rope now.

Of course, you could still well be right. It just seems very... against the spirit of the rank to earn it on the basis of victories in extra matches he was able to fight because of the efforts of someone else, not himself. 

Edit: To add to this, the clutch playoff performance, slamming the door on both guys, was quite impressive, but if that swung the decision, what if he'd only had to face one of them? I really, really hope they didn't count the playoff, at least in terms of "more wins".

Edited January 28 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 1,456]

31 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Edit: To add to this, the clutch playoff performance, slamming the door on both guys, was quite impressive, but if that swung the decision, what if he'd only had to face one of them? I really, really hope they didn't count the playoff, at least in terms of "more wins".

Maybe more in terms of the quality of the sumo ... kinda the reverse of Takakeisho getting rag-dolled by Goeido on day 15 exactly 6 years ago to scupper his Ozeki promotion.

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

On the "Takakeisho got screwed" sub-topic...

Takakeisho's jun-yusho in November 2022 was an odd one. He lost very tamely to Abi, but there was a suspicion that he threw the bout to spare Takayasu who had been injured in the first match of the play-off. When I say "suspicion" I mean that Chris Sumo said so.

[Shikona 148]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Of course, you could still well be right. It just seems very... against the spirit of the rank to earn it on the basis of victories in extra matches he was able to fight because of the efforts of someone else, not himself. 

 

What I think you are missing is that he could just as easily have lost those fights, but he won, and won impressively. Why would the committee need to pretend those fights never happened? Unless you go zensho, you are always benefitting in some way by someone else's efforts, aren't you?

[Octofuji 357]

25 minutes ago, Shikona said:

What I think you are missing is that he could just as easily have lost those fights, but he won, and won impressively. Why would the committee need to pretend those fights never happened? Unless you go zensho, you are always benefitting in some way by someone else's efforts, aren't you?

The committee did take those bouts into consideration, as the link from the Hoshoryu promotion thread says:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250127/k10014705161000.html

 

[Andreas21 184]

22 hours ago, Hankegami said:

What stands out for both Kaio and Takaeisho are two things 1) their outstanding number of career yusho, and 2) their history of injuries. Kaio had been kadoban 5 times by the time of his tsuna run (including an instance in Hatsu 2003 when he would have been demoted, were not for the kosho seido system which allowed him to sit out one tournament without repercussions). Takaeisho had been kadoban 2 times before his run, including one instance in which he was demoted to Sekiwake only to regain his Ozeki rank in the following tournament.

Now, I already argued in other posts in this thread that I was not 100% on board with promoting Hoshoryu. However, I am also trying to understand what the Committee is thinking. As others have already brought up, Hoshoryu is a successful Ozeki with another Yusho, two career jun-yusho, and a string of 18 basho without a MK. He doesn't have a history of frequent injuries, and in the overall he promises to be a reliable presence on the dohyo. By those measurements, he surely constitutes a better bet than Kaio and Takakeisho.

While this is an insightful analysis of the thin line between Kaio/Takakeisho and Hoshory promotion quests, I'm not convinced. Viewed from a different angle, it might as well be the other way round (say, the opposition argument).

These 25win/2 basho, Y-J combinations are basically equal as a performance, and it is just an arbitrary decision. The actual reason may actually may be on a different level, which will never be openly admitted, such as height and appearance.

My opinion is that also Kaio and Takakeisho should have been promoted as well from the position of performance but I'm perfectly happy to accept the decisions as arbitrary as they are.

[Sumo Spiffy 560]

12 hours ago, Reonito said:

Maybe more in terms of the quality of the sumo ... kinda the reverse of Takakeisho getting rag-dolled by Goeido on day 15 exactly 6 years ago to scupper his Ozeki promotion.

I tried to add something about this, but I couldn't figure out how to say it. The reverse Takakeisho metaphor is good, though. It could have added to the "eye test", so to speak, maybe convinced those on the fence that the quality of his sumo was high enough to warrant promotion.

Edited January 28 by Sumo Spiffy

[Sumo Spiffy 560]

9 hours ago, Octofuji said:

The committee did take those bouts into consideration, as the link from the Hoshoryu promotion thread says:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250127/k10014705161000.html

Fair enough, and I think the question of what would've happened with one playoff match stands. That's especially true if it was against Kinbozan, because Kinbozan didn't put up much of a fight in either of their matches.

However, I also think this quote is pretty important:

Quote

He then expressed his expectations for Toyonoryu's future, saying, "He has suffered three losses to lower-ranked opponents this tournament, but he fought in a forward-leaning style of sumo and was not defeated by strength. He has a lot of room to grow, so he has the qualities to be a Yokozuna for a long time."

This perspective makes more sense to me, at least if they view the losses to Atami and Shodai as ones where he largely matched their strength before losing.

[Reonito 1,456]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This perspective makes more sense to me, at least if they view the losses to Atami and Shodai as ones where he largely matched their strength before losing.

Maybe even more telling (pardon the translation gaffes):

Quote

"Looking at his record alone, he has 12 wins and 3 losses, but he has fought 17 times including his matches against Tomoe. In a sense, he was highly praised for taking on challenges and winning. We would like to evaluate his strength and mental strength in fighting three consecutive times from the final bout."

 

[Sumo Spiffy 560]

TBH, at some point it's hard to tell what their most genuine reasons are and what they might be throwing on top to make sure everyone hears an argument they can agree with.

[Reonito 1,456]

57 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

TBH, at some point it's hard to tell what their most genuine reasons are and what they might be throwing on top to make sure everyone hears an argument they can agree with.

It's also a committee, so the individual members may well have been swayed by different arguments.

[Bunbukuchagama 719]

8 hours ago, Reonito said:

Maybe even more telling (pardon the translation gaffes):

 

If it's true, it means that it is more advantageous for a tsunatori to finish the basho tied with other rikishi so that he could beat them heroically in a playoff than winning "in regulation" by having the best record on senshuraku. Which doesn't make much sense.

[Reonito 1,456]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

If it's true, it means that it is more advantageous for a tsunatori to finish the basho tied with other rikishi so that he could beat them heroically in a playoff than winning "in regulation" by having the best record on senshuraku. Which doesn't make much sense.

Well, if he'd gotten to 13+, which is what it would haven taken to win in regulation, promotion would have been assured, so it's not like winning fewer regulation bouts was an advantage.

[Bunbukuchagama 719]

48 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Well, if he'd gotten to 13+, which is what it would haven taken to win in regulation, promotion would have been assured, so it's not like winning fewer regulation bouts was an advantage.

But winning 12 without a playoff (which is supposed to look better than a playoff 12-3) would somehow look less impressive?