Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

[Reonito 1,519]

  On 08/02/2025 at 23:01, Octofuji said:

Looking at all M1-M4s who got 33+ wins, 7 out of 12 became Ozeki.

In the first 3 basho, Wakahanada was unlucky enough to go from M4 to M3 after his 9-6, and then only to K after his 10-5, and no one has been promoted in the modern era either straight from K or without 2 san'yaku basho in the run. But I don't have an explanation for why his second (overlapping) run didn't succeed, with 34/3 no less. Takanosato is ruled out by not hitting double digits in the third basho. So it's really 7 of 10 (everyone except Takanohana, Wakanohana, and Kotomitsuki). I may or may not have written a couple thousand words about Ozeki promotions a few years ago 

[Gurowake 4,107]

This isn't perfect (Tochihikari and Kotomitsuki break it in different ways) and it's almost certainly not how they think about it, but it seems a good rule of thumb is that starting at M1 you need 34 wins, from M2 35 wins, etc for M3 and M4, with a Yusho counting as an additional win, and from M5 or below it's impossible except with a Yokozuna run in sanyaku in the last tournaments, which also works for any of the other maegashira positions too (see Terunofuji 1st promotion which otherwise would be 1 win short).

[Reonito 1,519]

  On 09/02/2025 at 15:09, Gurowake said:

from M5 or below it's impossible except with a Yokozuna run in sanyaku in the last tournaments

Not a lot of examples to test this, but Kotooshu may show that this is actually impossible.

[Gurowake 4,107]

  On 09/02/2025 at 16:29, Reonito said:

Not a lot of examples to test this, but Kotooshu may show that this is actually impossible.

Neither of those were a Yusho.

[Reonito 1,519]

  On 09/02/2025 at 16:42, Gurowake said:

Neither of those were a Yusho.

Fair enough, we'll see if we ever get a proper test. I'd expect YY would do it, but not sure about anything less. And no one has ever gone YY below Ozeki.

Edited February 9 by Reonito

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

  On 09/02/2025 at 02:47, Reonito said:

In the first 3 basho, Wakahanada was unlucky enough to go from M4 to M3 after his 9-6, and then only to K after his 10-5, and no one has been promoted in the modern era either straight from K or without 2 san'yaku basho in the run. But I don't have an explanation for why his second (overlapping) run didn't succeed, with 34/3 no less. 

I don't know if it's always been this way, but at the moment, I'd expect a run is more likely to lead to promotion if the mega-performance yusho comes in the last basho rather than the second. Hype as a tiebreaker.

[Reonito 1,519]

  On 14/02/2025 at 16:31, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't know if it's always been this way, but at the moment, I'd expect a run is more likely to lead to promotion if the mega-performance yusho comes in the last basho rather than the second. Hype as a tiebreaker.

For sure, and they like to see an upward trajectory across the 3 basho, but still, 10-5, 14-1 Y, 10-5 seems sufficient. Of course, he made this largely academic by going 13-2 D in the next basho.