Kyushu 2024 Promotion etc discussion

[Gurowake 4,011]

Sanyaku race:

There's one sure spot open from Shodai, and Kirishima might open up another one, so two possible spots.  These will almost certainly be taken by Wakatakakage and/or Abi; no one else has much hope based on the decision to promote Shodai last tournament; it's unlikely Takanosho will get the nod even if he ends up with the best rank/record numbers since he faced very few joi rikishi.  For Takanosho to have a chance he needs to win both matches and have both of the other candidates lose both matches.  Abi is slightly in the lead right now.  Both of them have good enough scores that they should be promoted to Sekiwake at the expense of Kirishima if he gets exactly 7 wins.  Thus everyone that has a chance at sanyaku next tournament also has a chance at Sekiwake, though the first open spot would generally go to Wakamotoharu, so both maegashira candidates likely can't get there at the same time, but if Abi wins both his matches, and maybe even Wakatakakage, they might get a single open spot ahead of Wakamotoharu if he doesn't get another win.  It has happened before, but requires a very large difference in score and not a large difference in rank; what we'd have here in the most extreme case is somewhat in the middle.  So it might happen, but I wouldn't expect it right now.

Edited November 22 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,383]

Thank you, sir, for keeping tradition alive with this topic!

[Reonito 1,383]

 

[Reonito 1,383]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

We now have four rikishi with demotable records in the top division: Bushozan, Shishi, Asakoryu, and Ryuden. The trio of Nishikifuji, Sadanoumi, and Tokihayate still needs a win apiece for mathematical safety, but they’re probably okay given the thin ranks of promotion candidates. Kinbozan and Kitanowaka are assured of quick returns to the top division. Hakuoho and Tsurugisho can join them in Makuuchi with one more win apiece, while Kagayaki and Tamashoho need to win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

[Gurowake 4,011]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

We now have four rikishi with demotable records in the top division: Bushozan, Shishi, Asakoryu, and Ryuden. The trio of Nishikifuji, Sadanoumi, and Tokihayate still needs a win apiece for mathematical safety, but they’re probably okay given the thin ranks of promotion candidates. Kinbozan and Kitanowaka are assured of quick returns to the top division. Hakuoho and Tsurugisho can join them in Makuuchi with one more win apiece, while Kagayaki and Tamashoho need to win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

This is pretty much what I would have said.  I have no additional comments.  I'll look at what you said in the main thread for Makushita promotions shortly.

Edited November 22 by Gurowake

[Koorifuu 915]

Yep, I dare say that the two sekitori changes have been set for a couple of days. It's probably the least exciting one ever - can't remember if the situation was ever completely clear by day 12.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

41 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Miyagi would have a solid 3rd promotion claim with a 4-3 from Ms2w if he wins tomorrow, but one of Tohakuryu, Nabatame, or Daishoho would have to lose twice, and even that might not do it given the recent decision-making. Tohakuryu and Daishoho go H2H tomorrow, so one is guaranteed safety. It is perhaps telling that they've matched Miyagi with fellow Makushitan Kotokuzan tomorrow instead of holding him back for a potential exchange bout on day 15.

Daishoho at 4-11 would almost certainly be sent packing for a kachikoshi Miyagi, IMHO.

[Gurowake 4,011]

My own Juryo <> Makushita take:

Onosho and Chiyomaru will be demoted for Kiryuko and Hatsuyama.  That's not going to change.

If Miyagi wins his match he has a strong case for promotion in theory.  After running through the possibilities of the scheduling into Juryo the last two days given the Day 13 schedule, I do find it reasonable to say that Miyagi was not seen as a possible promotion candidate by the torikumi makers or else they could have put both him and Kotokuzan into Juryo Day 15.  While Kotokuzan is not really in a position to be promoted given that all the remaining demotion candidates would only be barely demotable, there's no reason he couldn't have faced someone in Juryo that wasn't on the bubble just to be clear that it wasn't an exchange match.

That said, I believe that the people that make the torikumi are not the same people as those that decide on the banzuke, and even if they were, do you really think they had a discussion as to whether a 4-3 Miyagi would replace any of Nabatame, Daishoho, or Tohakuryu in the case that any of them they lost their last 2 matches prior to them making the torikumi decision?  I'm fairly sure that the people who make the torikumi only have vague ideas of what the banzuke committee will do.  I also agree with Asashosakari that Daishoho, in slightly worse position than the other two, would probably be demoted for a 4-3 Miyagi, and I'm not so sure it's definitely settled that he wouldn't replace the other two either.  Why the people doing the torikumi didn't schedule the inter-division matches is not particularly relevant.

I wouldn't totally discount Kazekeno either.  While it's 10 years ago now and the invisible line has gotten stronger since then, Ishiura made it with a 6-1 from Ms6w when there was a demoted Juryo rikishi in equivalent position to Nabatame or Tohakuryu, though not being at the same exact position makes the comparison a little harder.  They have a good reason to ignore the line here as well: Asanoyama didn't compete and wasn't expected to either, so he might be ignorable in terms of the actual top 10 makushita rikishi.  While not equivalent to the time he was suspended, they've already ignored his presence in such a situation before when making a banzuke.  That's the only way it would likely go down though if you compare the situation to the last time someone went 6-1 at Ms6e; after Haru 2023 Shiden was not promoted at the expense of Shimanoumi or Tsushimanada, and they were in even worse position to be kept than the demotion candidates this basho.  In that case if they didn't want to split those two, they could have promoted Kawazoe then as well, and not promoting the latter there was rather odd.  Thus the signs point to that they don't want to ever in normal circumstances promote a 6-1 from Ms6e; the only question is whether these circumstances are normal.

It's still a stretch for Kazekeno, but if they go the "ignore Asanoyama" route, then either two of the demotion candidates need to lose both matches, or only one does while Miyagi loses his.

Edited November 22 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,011]

There's also supposed to be Yusho race stuff in this thread, though I think since Asashosakari stopped doing it, that sorta fell by the wayside.

Makuuchi: Unless one of the two leaders withdraws, the winning score will be at least 13, and it won't be decided on Day 14 such that the last match of the tournament between the leaders will be relevant the Yusho in some way.  If only one of them wins on Day 14 we still might see a playoff rematch of that last bout.  If one of the two of them withdraws and the other fails to win either of their matches, the 10-3 rikishi have a chance to move into a playoff with the currently 12-1 rikishi, but that's extremely unlikely to happen,

Juryo:  Lots of rikishi still in contention theoretically as the two leaders have already faced each other and thus the winning score might only be 10.  Kinbozan and Tsurugisho are in the lead at 10-3.  One behind are Aonishiki, Tochitaikai, and the kyujo Oshoumi.  2 behind are a bunch I'm not going to bother to list.  Day 14 matches among the top 4: Kinbozan vs. Tokihayate (Makuuchi visitor, 6-7), Tsurugisho vs. Kagayaki (7-6), Aonshiki vs. Shimanoumi (6-7), and Tochitaikai vs. Tomokaze (6-7).  Of the possible 6 matchups between the top 4, there's still Kinbozan vs. Aonishiki or Tochitaikai, plus Tochitaiki vs. Tsurugisho.  They seemed more interested in pitting the contenders against rikishi not with KK or MK yet than against each other.

Makushita: Only 7-0 is Osanai

Sandanme: Only 7-0 is Fujitoshi

Jonidan: There will be a senshuraku playoff betwen Nishikikuni and Nakashima

Jonokushi: Only 7-0 is Gonoumi

[BroadMeadow 34]

What is the ballpark expectation for Enho? Is Makushita totally off the table?

I think for Shodai to ever be promoted to komosubi again he should have to fulfill ozeki requirements- 33 over 3. What a waste. 

[Yamanashi 3,772]

24 minutes ago, BroadMeadow said:

What is the ballpark expectation for Enho? Is Makushita totally off the table?

If you mean by next basho, I'd think not (it's never happened before).  Of course, we've never had a guy who wins EVERY "spirited rikishi" award he's eligible for, so let's think positive.

[Gurowake 4,011]

One thing I didn't cover in the sanyaku discussion is the possibility that we have an extra Komusubi next basho.  This seems quite possible, but it likely will require both of the candidates to win both of their matches, plus have Kirishima not fall out of sanyaku as Takanosho is ranked too low to force an extra spot as well; even a zensho probably wouldn't be enough from that low simply due to not having a strong enough schedule.  While we don't have particular evidence of an 11-4 M2e or 12-3 M3e getting extra spots relatively recently, we have seen a 10-5 M1w multiple times pick up an extra spot.  We've seen a 10-5 M2e be denied promotion (Kiribayama after Natsu 2022), so that's why I'm guessing Wakatakakage will need to win both matches to be eligible for an extra slot.  There was a somewhat recent occurrence of an 11-4 M3w not being given an extra spot (Hokutofuji after Kyushu 2017), so it probably will take 12 wins for Abi, though we don't have good evidence that will be enough, as we only have Tamawashi's 13-2 Y after Aki 2022 being given an extra spot (Tamawashi may have been the top ranked Komusubi, but both Kiribayama and Daieisho were guaranteed as Komusubi, so Tamawashi's was definitely extra) any time recently.  There's good reason to think that 12 should be enough for M3 though based on 10 being enough for M1w.

[Gurowake 4,011]

1 hour ago, BroadMeadow said:

What is the ballpark expectation for Enho? Is Makushita totally off the table?

I estimate that he'll end up around Sd4.  To get a promotion to Makushita from Sandanme with a 6-1 you need to be ranked at least Sd50 or have some special circumstance like them changing how many rikishi are in each division.  Given the trends, it's extremely unlikely they'll be adding ranks to Makushita next basho, so he's not going to get there.  In that area of the banzuke, the increase in promotion size for a 6-1 as you go down in rank is around 1 per 3 ranks, so his 6 ranks below Sd50 should get him a 50 + 6/3 = 52 rank promotion.

[robnplunder 975]

10 hours ago, Reonito said:

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

We now have four rikishi with demotable records in the top division: Bushozan, Shishi, Asakoryu, and Ryuden. The trio of Nishikifuji, Sadanoumi, and Tokihayate still needs a win apiece for mathematical safety, but they’re probably okay given the thin ranks of promotion candidates. Kinbozan and Kitanowaka are assured of quick returns to the top division. Hakuoho and Tsurugisho can join them in Makuuchi with one more win apiece, while Kagayaki and Tamashoho need to win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

I think Ryuden is safe with four wins. He can make sure to stay with a win tomorrow. There could be only three openings for the MK promotion. Hakuoho may not make it to MK unless he wins tomorrow.

[Hankegami 439]

8 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I think Ryuden is safe with four wins. He can make sure to stay with a win tomorrow. There could be only three openings for the MK promotion. Hakuoho may not make it to MK unless he wins tomorrow.

I believe Ryuden is in a precarious position actually. Win or lose, he will have a demoting record (either M18w or M20w). His only luck is that there are only three locked in promotions from Juryo. I made a chart of the mathematical positions of endangered Makuuchi and prospected Juryo candidates - with the understanding that M17 and upper ranks are safe.

EDIT: Forgot a detail in my reasoning. We can be certain to get up to 6 demotion records, and up to 6 promotion records tomorrow. In Juryo, the only H2H is Kitanowaka vs. Tsurugisho, but the first is locked on for promotion - their result does not change a thing. Same for the Makuuchi. Tomorrow we get Ryuden vs. Bushozan, with the latter already with a locked in demotion. No other Darwinian bout on sight.

Spoiler

DEMOTABLE RECORDS (Makuuchi)

There are 6 Makuuchi rikishi who can have a demoting record after Day 15, but only 4 of them (Bushozan, Shishi, Asakoryu, Ryuden) will get a demoting record even with a win. In Juryo, there are again 6 rikishi who can get a promoting record, but only 4 will yield one no matter their result. This strongly suggests that being in position 1-4 for demotion makes this a virtual certainty.

W = Day 15 bout won; L = Day 15 bout lost

Tokihayate W - M16w - safe

Sadanoumi W - M17w - safe

Ryuden W - M18w - endangered - 4th or 6th spot

Tokihayate L - M18w - endangered - 4th or 6th spot

Sadanoumi L - M19w - endangered - 4th or 6th spot

Asakoryu W - M20e - endangered - 3rd or 5th spot

Ryuden L - M20w - demoted - 2nd or 4th spot

Shishi W - M21e - demoted - 2nd or 3rd spot

Asakoryu L - M22e - demoted - 2nd or 3rd spot

Shishi L - M23e - demoted - 2nd spot

Bushozan W - M26w - demoted - 1st spot

Bushozan L - M28w - demoted - 1st spot

PROMOTABLE RECORDS (Juryo)

There are 4 demoting records in Makuuchi - this means that we must consider LOCKED any promoting record that puts the candidate in the first 4 promotable spots

Kinbozan W - J-8w - promoted - 2nd spot (after Kitanowaka)

Kinbozan L - J-6w - promoted - 2nd spot (after Kitanowaka)

Hakuoho W - J-3w - promoted - 3rd spot

Kitanowaka W - J-2e - promoted - 1st spot (At J1e he's promoted by defaut with any KK)

Kagayaki W - J-1e - promoted - 2nd to 4th spot

Tamashoho W - J-1e - promotion record - 2nd to 5th spot

Hakuoho L - J-1w - promotion record - 2nd to 5th spot

Kitanowaka L - J-0e - promoted *At J1e he's promoted by defaut with any KK

Tsurugisho W - J-0w - promotion record - 4th to 5th spot

Kagayaki L - J1e - outside candidate - 5th or 6th spot

Tamashoho L - J1w - outside candidate - 6th spot

 

 

Edited November 23 by Hankegami

[Gurowake 4,011]

Day 14 update:

Sanyaku:

For Sekiwake, Daieisho clinched his return, and Wakamotoharu probably now has a good enough record to prevent the maegashira sanyaku promotions from moving up to Sekiwake before him, while Kirishima will fall back to at least Komusubi.  For that rank, assuming Wakamotoharu goes up to Sekiwake, we have Kirishima getting one spot with a win, while regardless of that outcome, Wakatakakage and Abi should also clinch a spot with a win though it won't be as certain for Wakatakakage if they all win.  If all three lose, then the spots go to the maegashira.  If Kirishima wins and the maegashira lose, the second spot will go to Abi and Wakatakakage likely won't force another spot.  Takanosho is definitely out of the picture now.

None of the rikishi involved face each other on senshuraku.

Edited November 23 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,011]

Makuuchi <> Juryo

We now have Kitanowaka, Kinbozan, and Hakuoho with promotable records, while there's little hope for Shishi and Bushozan staying.  Asakoryu probably doesn't have much hope either, but he might pull level with Ryuden in the demotion queue, so might be saved with a win, a Ryuden loss, and a loss from all the Juryo bubble rikishi, who are Tamashoho, Kagayaki, and Tsurugisho.  Ryuden is also currently demotable and is hard to not demote if he loses, as it would be reasonable for Kagayaki or Tamashoho to take Ryuden's spot when the latter loses even if the Juryo rikishi lose.  If Ryuden wins, he might be saved by there not being a victory among the Juryo rikishi.  If there are multiple victories among the Juryo bubble rikishi, then other possible demotees might be in play.  Sadanoumi and Tokihayate need wins to be safe, with Sadanoumi first in line to go down based on the number of promotion seekers.  If neither of those rikishi lose, then the weakest promotions from Juryo might not take place, and thus Hakuoho I don't think is guaranteed promotion right now, as he might be behind both Kagayaki and Tamashoho in the queue after Day 15 as well as being behind Kinbozan and Kitanowaka regardless, and there might only be 4 rikishi with demotable records.  The latter should be guaranteed a promotion with a KK at J1e as there are enough openings for those who obviously need to be promoted ahead of him, and while Hakuoho might stay ahead of him by the numbers, it's very close and not close enough to deny the promotion for a winning record at the top rank.  If Hakuoho wins he's obviously ahead of Kagayaki and Tamashoho and thus would certainly be promoted.

None of the rikishi involved face each other on senshuraku unless you count Kitanowaka vs. Tsurugisho, but Kitanowaka is probably good for promotion regardless as mentioned previously.

Edited November 23 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,011]

Juryo <> Makushita

No change to the fact that Onosho and Chiyomaru will be demoted for Kiryuko and Hatsuyama.  The previously-considered corner cases here have both been excluded now with losses from both Miyagi and Kazekeno, but there is one possibility that wasn't considered yesterday.  Now with Kotokuzan 4-3, he might theoretically be given a spot over Daishoho should the latter lose, as he's in the weakest possible position for just being demotable with the last loss.  Tohakuryu is now safe and Nabatame probably won't be replaced with Kotokuzan even if the former finishes MK, as he'd be only barely demotable.

 

[Gurowake 4,011]

Juryo Yusho:

Kinbozan is now the sole leader and will face Aonikishi.  If the former loses, then he'll have a playoff with at least Aonishki and possibly Tsurugisho, who faces Kitanowaka in a bout that means very little for the latter, making it a strange choice for a Yusho race implication, and Tochitaikai who faces Shiden, who at least has a slim hope of promotion should he win and all of Ryuden, Kagayaki, Tsurugisho, and Tamashoho lose, which is at least possible given the schedule, but didn't seem to be worth mentioning in the Juryo promotion picture as Ryuden (or Asakoryu with a win) might still be saved in that case.

[Reonito 1,383]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Shiden, who at least has a slim hope of promotion should he win and all of Ryuden, Kagayaki, Tsurugisho, and Tamashoho lose, which is at least possible given the schedule

I think Shiden would be behind Kagayaki and Tamashoho even with those results, so he can finish at best 6th in the promotion queue, and would be unlikely to be exchanged with Tokihayate, the potential 6th endangered incumbent.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

Given his proclivity for MK'ing in the top division, I wouldn't exactly say that Kitanowaka has nothing riding on his last bout. Every spot counts for somebody like him.

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Day 14 update:

Sanyaku:

For Sekiwake, Daieisho clinched his return, and Wakamotoharu probably now has a good enough record to prevent the maegashira sanyaku promotions from moving up to Sekiwake before him, while Kirishima will fall back to at least Komusubi.  For that rank, assuming Wakamotoharu goes up to Sekiwake, we have Kirishima getting one spot with a win, while regardless of that outcome, Wakatakakage and Abi should also clinch a spot with a win though it won't be as certain for Wakatakakage if they all win.  If all three lose, then the spots go to the maegashira.  If Kirishima wins and the maegashira lose, the second spot will go to Abi and Wakatakakage likely won't force another spot.  Takanosho is definitely out of the picture now.

None of the rikishi involved face each other on senshuraku.

The database is up and down as I'm trying to use it, but even with the Hokutofuji example, their willingness to expand the K/S ranks in the last couple years makes it really hard to believe Waka and Abi aren't already locked into komusubi slots. 

I don't know how to do a nice block setup, but:

Terunofuji  Y
Kotozakura  O  Hoshoryu (yeah that's my prediction)
                      O  Onosato
Daieisho       S  Wakamotoharu
Abi                K  Wakatakakage
                      K  7-8 Kirishima

Frankly, I think it's more likely a 7-8 Kirishima gets kicked to M1e than Waka only getting +1 on 10-5 or Abi +2 on 11-4. I don't really think that'll happen to Kiri, just a relatively higher chance.

Edit: I just did an ultra-rough draft on the assumption everyone who could lose and make things more complicated does lose (e.g. Oho and Ura). The only way I could see Waka only making M1e on 10-5 is if they would have to over-promote/under-demote guys too much to be comfortable with. But even making the whole situation as extreme as possible, you've still got Takanosho, Gonoyama, and Tobizaru moving up. Atami should join them if his brain doesn't fall out of his head again against Mitakeumi. Then figure Oho's a favorite against Nishikigi and it might destroy a random plane of existence if Ura loses to Chiyoshoma, and I think Waka's gotta be in.

Edited November 24 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 1,383]

31 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

it's more likely a 7-8 Kirishima gets kicked to M1e

I don't think there's any chance of that happening, we're now at 53 straight times of S 7-8 -> K.

[Wakawakawaka 146]

The idea of Kirishima staying at Komusubi with 7-8 has to be bolstered by Hiradoumi only dropping to M1w this past time around despite WTK being ahead by the numbers. Possible scenarios:

1) Kirishima 6-9, no problems, WTK + Abi = Komusubi.

2) Kirishima 7-8, WTK 11-4, Abi 12-3 = 3 Komusubi?

3) Kirishima 7-8, WTK 11-4, Abi 11-4 = WTK Komusubi, Abi M1e?

4) Kirishima 7-8, WTK 10-5, Abi 12-3 = ?

5) Kirishima 7-8, WTK 10-5, Abi 11-4 = ?

Edited November 24 by Wakawakawaka

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

22 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I don't think there's any chance of that happening, we're now at 53 straight times of S 7-8 -> K.

Right, and that's sort of the point. If they would be willing to consider it at all in a vacuum, I don't think there's a prayer of it happening when you consider he'll have to beat Onosato to hit 7-8. So that shows how locked into K I think Abi and Waka are.