Kyushu 2024 Promotion etc discussion

[Sue 493]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

What an absolute nightmare.  All those 7-8s and 8-7 headed directly for the same section of the banzuke.

M9e, M9w, M9e-haridashi-1, M9w-haridashi-1, M9e-haridashi-2....

[Ack! 445]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

What an absolute nightmare.  All those 7-8s and 8-7 headed directly for the same section of the banzuke.

Surprisingly, banzuke luck seems to make it all work out just right.

[Reonito 1,384]

I haven't seen a makushita joi guess posted, unless I missed it. I can only come up with 9 reasonable candidates for the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone based on past rankings. Any ideas @Gurowake @Asashosakari et al.?

7-0 Ms48 Osanai, the rank is a bit borderline but I think he'll make it.

6-1 Ms7w Wakanosho; next-best rank is Ms20 Tochimaru, which seems too low.

5-2 Ms6e Kazekeno, Ms12 Hitoshi. Next is Ms14 Otsuji, which also seems too low.

4-3 Ms4e Kotokuzan (or Daishoho), Ms5e Akua, Ms7e Kusano.

3-4 Ms2w Miyagi.

J10 Onosho (2-11-2) again seems a bit borderline, but I don't see anyone with a better case...

 

[Reonito 1,384]

Two promotions to Juryo have been announced. New promotee: Hatsuyama (Tamanoi beya) Returning: Kiryuko (Tatsunami beya)

So Nabatame survives like we all thought, and so does Daishoho.

[Yamanashi 3,772]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

Two promotions to Juryo have been announced. New promotee: Hatsuyama (Tamanoi beya) Returning: Kiryuko (Tatsunami beya)

So Nabatame survives like we all thought, and so does Daishoho.

Considering Oshoumi's fate in the Kyushu banzuke, Nabatame would have to catch a break (and not much of a break is needed).  Now, if his next basho is as successful as Oshoumi's, maybe we'll see the bespectacled character for many more basho as Sekitori.

[Ack! 445]

18 hours ago, Reonito said:

Two promotions to Juryo have been announced. New promotee: Hatsuyama (Tamanoi beya) Returning: Kiryuko (Tatsunami beya)

So Nabatame survives like we all thought, and so does Daishoho.

I'm not surprised that Nabatame survived, but I cannot understand the rationale for not doing the Daishoho/Kotokuzan exchange.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,261]

1 hour ago, Ack! said:

I'm not surprised that Nabatame survived, but I cannot understand the rationale for not doing the Daishoho/Kotokuzan exchange.

They've been underdemoting Juryo for a while now. The Shimanoumi plot armor being the most famous example.

In the last 6 basho before kyushuu Daishoho has been 40-50, but only lost 2 ranks. A banzuke luck rating of +8.

Kyujo doesn't matter, Shimazuumi on 21-24 over 3 basho but up 2 ranks (+5 luck)

Then of course the master himself Shimanoumi, 80-100 over 12 basho but up 4 ranks (+24 luck!!)

Makuuchi elevator rikishi typically have big 'luck' ratings just because that is how the ceiling of Makuuchi works out (8-7s getting over promoted to fill big voids), but down here there has been a conscious decision to under demote. It also seems like demoted from Makuuchi rikishi don't get this 'protection' their first basho back in Juryo for whatever reason. Just spitballing, maybe this is an attempt to discourage yaocho? I don't think its a kabu thing, too many rikishi that are too far away from qualifying for a kabu getting this treatment.

[Reonito 1,384]

4 hours ago, Ack! said:

I'm not surprised that Nabatame survived, but I cannot understand the rationale for not doing the Daishoho/Kotokuzan exchange.

It seems like they've really shifted to a strong incumbent bias recently. Until the Tsushimanada decision last year, 4 wins at J9 was a guaranteed ticket to Makushita. Conversely, 4-3 from Ms4 used to give a decent chance of promotion, but after Akiseyama in Jan 2020, there were 16 straight misses until Nabatame last basho. Could be some random variation, but I think we've all gotten the same sense. Not sure who/what is driving this...

[rhyen 1,823]

On 27/11/2024 at 01:16, Gurowake said:

What an absolute nightmare.  All those 7-8s and 8-7 headed directly for the same section of the banzuke.

Well, does Japan have a atom smasher lying around to fuse all of them into two 6 handed, 3 headed asura sekitori?

might be the most interesting rikishi ever. 

[Asashosakari 18,959]

15 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Makuuchi elevator rikishi typically have big 'luck' ratings just because that is how the ceiling of Makuuchi works out (8-7s getting over promoted to fill big voids), but down here there has been a conscious decision to under demote.

It's a systemic issue in juryo as well, though. The total amount of banzuke luck is available either way (and always has been), it's just getting primarily distributed to the makekoshi rikishi now. I think the reason it's more noticeable these days is that, were it to go to KK rikishi, much of it would be going to: a) rikishi freshly promoted from makushita, with whom it's hard to define what an overpromotion even is, and b) rikishi just passing through juryo on the way to makuuchi. Those are both types of rikishi who are unlikely to linger in juryo and thus can't collect banzuke luck over and over, so it would get spread across a larger number of them in the long run.
 

Quote

It also seems like demoted from Makuuchi rikishi don't get this 'protection' their first basho back in Juryo for whatever reason.

I don't think that's true, just look at Shirokuma dropping only 3.5 ranks on his 4-9-2 last time, or Chiyoshoma going down 2.5 on his 5-5-5 the tournament before. Or did you mean after their first juryo score for their demotion within juryo? I can't say I've noticed anything out of the ordinary there, either.
 

Quote

Just spitballing, maybe this is an attempt to discourage yaocho?

That's something I've speculated about ever since they started to do these very small demotions in the sekitori divisions. No idea if it's true. Alternative hypotheses might be that they either want to slow down rikishi progress in general, or that they've determined that too many rikishi were fighting out of rank in each tournament for their tastes when the movements used to be larger.

Edited November 28 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,011]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

they've determined that too many rikishi were fighting out of rank in each tournament for their tastes when the movements used to be larger.

I've always wondered about trying to do an analysis of how rikishi perform in the tournament after each promotion, and see whether for some records in the first tournament there are differences in the outcomes in the second tournament.  The idea here being to look to see whether they are systematically overpromoting or underpromoting certain records just because of how they've decided to do it.  That obviously raises the question as to whether the shimpan are doing something like this, but it would strike me as an unusually large amount of data analysis for people that mostly are middle-school educated.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

On 27/11/2024 at 23:55, Reonito said:

It seems like they've really shifted to a strong incumbent bias recently. Until the Tsushimanada decision last year, 4 wins at J9 was a guaranteed ticket to Makushita. Conversely, 4-3 from Ms4 used to give a decent chance of promotion, but after Akiseyama in Jan 2020, there were 16 straight misses until Nabatame last basho. Could be some random variation, but I think we've all gotten the same sense. Not sure who/what is driving this...

Before Kyushu I suddenly had the idea, "What if they've decided to do away with the necessary debates, and if they have, what if they've decided to do it the most simple way possible?" So I checked, and lo and behold...

         Juryo       Makushita   W-L Diff   Rk Diff  Outcome
2024.11  J9w  4-11   Ms4e 4-3    7+1 = 8      8.5    Ms not promoted
2024.07  J11e 5-10   Ms3w 5-2    5+3 = 8      7.5    Ms promoted
2024.03  J13e 6-9    Ms4w 5-2    3+3 = 6      5.5    Ms promoted
2024.01  J12e 5-10   Ms2w 4-3    5+1 = 6      4.5    Ms promoted
2023.07  J12w 5-10   Ms3e 4-3    5+1 = 6      4.5    Ms promoted
         J14e 6-9    Ms3w 4-3    3+1 = 4      3.5    Ms promoted
2023.05  J14e 6-9    Ms3w 4-3    3+1 = 4      3.5    Ms promoted
2023.03  J10e 4-11   Ms3e 4-3    7+1 = 8      7.0    Ms promoted
         J9e  4-11   Ms3w 4-3    7+1 = 8      8.5    Ms not promoted
2023.01  J11e 5-10   Ms2e 4-3    5+1 = 6      5.0    Ms promoted
         J10w 5-10   Ms2w 4-3    5+1 = 6      6.0    Ms promoted
2022.09  J12e 6-9    Ms5w 5-2    3+3 = 6      7.5    Ms not promoted
2022.05  J14e 7-8    Ms1w 4-3    1+1 = 2      1.5    Ms promoted
2022.03  J10w 5-10   Ms3e 4-3    5+1 = 6      6.5    Ms not promoted
         J14e 7-8    Ms5w 5-2    1+3 = 4      5.5    Ms not promoted
2022.01  J13w 6-9    Ms3e 4-3    3+1 = 4      3.5    Ms promoted
         J13e 6-9    Ms4w 4-3    3+1 = 4      5.5    Ms not promoted
2021.05  J7e  3-12   Ms1w 4-3    9+1 = 10     8.5    Ms promoted
2021.03  J14e 7-8    Ms3e 4-3    1+1 = 2      3.0    Ms not promoted
=======
2021.01  J11w 5-10   Ms2e 4-3    5+1 = 6      4.5    Ms promoted
         J13e 6-9    Ms3w 4-3    3+1 = 4      4.5    Ms promoted (!)
2020.09  J12w 6-9    Ms2e 4-3    3+1 = 4      3.5    Ms promoted
2020.07  J13e 6-9    Ms3w 5-2    3+3 = 6      4.5    Ms promoted
2020.01  J10e 4-11   Ms4e 4-3    7+1 = 8      8.0    Ms promoted
2019.11  J11e 5-10   Ms3e 4-3    5+1 = 6      6.0    Ms promoted
2019.09  J14e 5-10   Ms5w 4-3    5+1 = 6      5.5    Ms promoted
2019.07  J10w 5-10   Ms4w 4-3    5+1 = 6      8.0    Ms promoted (!)
2019.05  J13e 6-9    Ms3w 5-2    3+3 = 6      4.5    Ms promoted
         J14w 7-8    Ms2e 4-3    1+1 = 2      1.5    Ms promoted
2018.09  J12e 6-9    Ms4w 5-2    3+3 = 6      6.5    Ms promoted (!)
2018.07  J14w 5-10   Ms5e 4-3    3+1 = 6      4.5    Ms promoted
         J13e 6-9    Ms5w 4-3    3+1 = 4      6.5    Ms promoted (!)
2018.05  J11e 5-10   Ms4e 4-3    5+1 = 6      7.0    Ms promoted (!)
         J10w 5-10   Ms5e 4-3    5+1 = 6      8.5    Ms not promoted
2018.03  J7e  3-12   Ms1w 4-3    9+1 = 10     8.5    Ms promoted
2017.11  J9e  4-11   Ms4w 5-2    7+3 = 10     9.5    Ms promoted
         J14w 7-8    Ms2w 4-3    1+1 = 2      2.0    Ms promoted
2017.01  J10e 5-10   Ms3e 5-2    5+3 = 8      7.0    Ms promoted
2016.11  J9w  4-11   Ms2e 4-3    7+1 = 8      6.5    Ms promoted
         J9e  4-11   Ms2w 4-3    7+1 = 8      7.5    Ms promoted
2016.09  J11w 5-10   Ms2w 4-3    5+1 = 6      5.0    Ms promoted
         J13w 6-9    Ms3e 4-3    3+1 = 4      3.5    Ms promoted
2016.07  J12w 6-9    Ms4e 4-3    3+1 = 4      5.5    Ms not promoted
         J8e  4-11   Ms5e 4-3    7+1 = 8     11.0    Ms not promoted
2016.05  J5w  1-14   Ms5e 4-3    13+1 = 14   13.5    Ms promoted
2015.11  J13w 6-9    Ms4w 5-2    3+3 = 6      5.0    Ms promoted
         J8e  4-11   Ms4e 4-3    7+1 = 8     10.0    Ms promoted (!)
2015.09  J8e  4-11   Ms5w 5-2    7+3 = 10    11.5    Ms not promoted
2015.07  J11e 4-11   Ms3w 4-3    7+1 = 8      6.5    Ms promoted
2015.05  J14w 7-8    Ms1w 4-3    1+1 = 2      1.0    Ms promoted
2015.03  J10e 5-10   Ms3e 5-2    5+3 = 8      7.0    Ms promoted

Down to 2021.03 only cases are listed where the difference between W-L Diff and Rk Diff was less than 2 points in either direction, i.e. the outcome of the comparison was "not obvious". 2021.01 and earlier also include all cases where a demotable-by-the-numbers juryo rikishi had an advantage of 2+ points of relative distance over a Ms top 5 KK (i.e. today it would presumably be an "obvious keep").

So the last time a makushita contender was "overpromoted" was back in early 2021. Going back further there were several other cases - although it's a fairly rare scenario altogether - while it hasn't happened since. My prediction/guess that Daishoho would not be dropped a few days ago was based chiefly on these observations. (It's entirely possible that I just got lucky, of course.)

Additional premises/assumptions:

(1) Juryo rikishi who are safe "by the numbers" absolutely will not be dropped even if a makushita top 5 rikishi is sufficiently close to win the comparison. Last happened in 2017.09 (with two Ms rikishi at once):

2017.09  J13w 7-8    Ms2e 5-2    1+3 = 4      2.5    Ms not promoted (assumes Ms2e as 1st in line)
      or J13w 7-8    Ms1w 4-3    1+1 = 2      2.0    Ms not promoted (assumes Ms1w as 1st in line)
      or J10e 6-9    Ms2e 5-2    3+3 = 6      6.0    Ms not promoted (assumes Ms2e as 2nd in line)

Went the other way just two basho earlier, although the Ms candidacies were much stronger there:

2017.05  J13w 7-8    Ms1e 5-2    1+3 = 4      1.5    Ms promoted
      or J13w 7-8    Ms2w 6-1    1+5 = 6      3.0    Ms promoted

For completeness, cases of by-the-numbers qualification where no juryo rikishi was in numerical reach (since 2015):

2024.05  J8w 5-6-4   Ms3e 5-2    5+3 = 8      8.5    Ms not promoted
      or J10w 6-9    Ms3e 5-2    3+3 = 6      6.5    ,,
      or J12w 7-8    Ms3e 5-2    1+3 = 4      4.5    ,,
2018.11  J11e 6-9    Ms1w 4-3    3+1 = 4      4.5    Ms not promoted
2017.09  J10e 6-9    Ms1w 4-3    3+1 = 4      5.5    Ms not promoted (assumes Ms1w as 2nd in line)
2017.05  J10e 6-9    Ms1w 4-3    3+1 = 4      5.5    Ms not promoted

(2) Makushita rikishi who are ranked below Ms5 absolutely will not be promoted even if a juryo rikishi is sufficiently close to lose the comparison. Has happened a bunch of times after 2018.01, but in all cases their hypothetical promotion would have required passing over a top 5 KK, so these are probably irrelevant. Would be interesting to know what would happen now if such a Ms6+ was properly the next candidate in line.

BTW, the highly unusual 2018.01 was technically appropriate by the numbers (the 0-0-15 was assault victim Takanoiwa, so who knows how that was really handled):

2018.01  J14e 4-11   Ms7e 5-2    7+3 = 10     7.0    Ms promoted
         J12w 4-11   Ms6e 4-3    7+1 = 8      7.5    Ms promoted
         J3e 0-0-15  Ms8w 5-2    15+3 = 18    19.5   Ms not promoted

The only other case of a Ms6+ promotion since 2015 was:

2015.01  J12w 5-10   Ms4e 4-3    5+1 = 6      5.5    Ms promoted
         J12e 6-9    Ms6w 6-1    3+5 = 8      8.5    Ms promoted (!)
    also J12e 6-9    Ms5e 4-3    3+1 = 4      7.0    Ms not promoted (passed by the 6-1)
         

Additional note:

2023.11  J10e 5-10   Ms4w 4-3    5+1 = 6      8      Ms not promoted

I didn't include this one above since it's in the "obvious" realm, post-2021. The reason I'm mentioning it now anyway is that the Ms4w, Tsushimanada, defeated a juryo opponent (who did get demoted, Takakento J9w 3-12) to secure his kachikoshi, and afterwards he was quoted in the press as being surprised that this fact did not result in a promotion decision in his favour.

For a while we also assumed - and the available evidence appeared to corroborate it - that the results of late-basho J vs Ms matches were significant contributary factors to the promotion decisions. Most notable in 2019.07, where Ms4w 4-3 (win vs J) was promoted and Ms5w 5-2 (loss vs J) was not, as well as 2018.09 where Ms4w 5-2 (win vs J) was promoted and Ms2e 4-3 (loss vs J) was not. Both cases went completely against what we had typically assumed about the ordering of the promotion queue. There hasn't been any such unusual selection of the promotees since.

In addition, in both tournaments the promoted Ms rikishi had defeated exactly the juryo rikishi whose spot he ended up taking; both cases are listed in the table as overpromotions. Earlier overpromotions had no such factor involved; the promotees in 2018.07 and 2018.05 had actually even lost to a juryo rikishi at the end (not the one whose spot each guy took).

Edited November 29 by Asashosakari

[Ack! 445]

On 26/11/2024 at 16:21, Reonito said:

I haven't seen a makushita joi guess posted, unless I missed it. I can only come up with 9 reasonable candidates for the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone based on past rankings. Any ideas @Gurowake @Asashosakari et al.?

7-0 Ms48 Osanai, the rank is a bit borderline but I think he'll make it.

6-1 Ms7w Wakanosho; next-best rank is Ms20 Tochimaru, which seems too low.

5-2 Ms6e Kazekeno, Ms12 Hitoshi. Next is Ms14 Otsuji, which also seems too low.

4-3 Ms4e Kotokuzan (or Daishoho), Ms5e Akua, Ms7e Kusano.

3-4 Ms2w Miyagi.

J10 Onosho (2-11-2) again seems a bit borderline, but I don't see anyone with a better case...

 

I have Otsuji at Ms5w.  It is a stretch, but not without precedent.  Tochimaru is at Ms6e.  Ms predictions always seem like a crapshoot to me -- unpredictable.

[Gurowake 4,011]

7 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

what if they've decided to do it the most simple way possible?

The evidence certainly seems convincing.  We've generally always assumed that they gave more weight to lower-division win-over-loss numbers because they clearly move them more than those numbers when they're in the lower divisions, but it certainly is at least reasonable that they don't do that when comparing them with Juryo rikishi.  It would be interesting to see just how strong the other two rules are when they're faced with extreme circumstances.  And we're still not sure how a 7-0 in the double digits really compares.  The only time promotion was denied was with a TD, which won't again happen, and in that case I might guess if they have to do it again, they'd not promote the 4-3 Ms1w, though there remains the question if there are any records that should get promoted first over a double digit Ms 7-0, and if they might overdemote to make it happen if there's someone that's safe by less than 1 win. 

 

7 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Has happened a bunch of times after 2018.01, but in all cases their hypothetical promotion would have required passing over a top 5 KK, so these are probably irrelevant. Would be interesting to know what would happen now if such a Ms6+ was properly the next candidate in line.

So what you seem to be saying, in the most recent 2 cases of 6-1 Ms6 rikishi, where going by the previous straight-number logic they would have been promoted, they weren't simply because there was someone KK in the top 5 ranks that wasn't promoted.  Thus in order for someone below Ms5 to be promoted, there would have to be no other KK rikishi in the top 5, even a 4-3 Ms5w, that weren't already being promoted.  This ties in with the experience of Enho/Takayoshitoshi being promoted, but is not the case for Ishiura, which appears to be no longer how they would do things now, even if they are more strictly going by numbers for the main decision, simply because they don't want to promote people beyond Ms5 unless absolutely everyone that rank and above is already being promoted under the basic criteria.

[Millwood 41]

On 28/11/2024 at 09:57, Gurowake said:

I've always wondered about trying to do an analysis of how rikishi perform in the tournament after each promotion, and see whether for some records in the first tournament there are differences in the outcomes in the second tournament.  The idea here being to look to see whether they are systematically overpromoting or underpromoting certain records just because of how they've decided to do it.  That obviously raises the question as to whether the shimpan are doing something like this, but it would strike me as an unusually large amount of data analysis for people that mostly are middle-school educated.

You would expect a promotion to be followed by a poorer result and a demotion by a better result just because of regression to the mean.

[Gurowake 4,011]

15 minutes ago, Millwood said:

You would expect a promotion to be followed by a poorer result and a demotion by a better result just because of regression to the mean.

Right, but the idea would be, how well do people promoted with a 7-0 do compared to those promoted with a 6-1, 5-2, etc?  If the 7-0s tend to do meaningfully better on average than then the 6-1s the next basho, then either the 7-0s are not being promoted far enough, or the 6-1s too far.

[Yamanashi 3,772]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Right, but the idea would be, how well do people promoted with a 7-0 do compared to those promoted with a 6-1, 5-2, etc?  If the 7-0s tend to do meaningfully better on average than then the 6-1s the next basho, then either the 7-0s are not being promoted far enough, or the 6-1s too far.

Well, that's something even I can do.  Just do a standard query; put "Jd" (nothing more) then select 7 wins and 0 losses.  You'll get 662 results, complete with their score next basho.  Same with 6-1, etc.

[Gurowake 4,011]

5 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Well, that's something even I can do.  Just do a standard query; put "Jd" (nothing more) then select 7 wins and 0 losses.  You'll get 662 results, complete with their score next basho.  Same with 6-1, etc.

The idea isn't hard.  It's just time consuming to collect and organize all the data.

[Ack! 445]

I wonder if someone could explain the rank difference math Asashosakari used in his excellent analysis above? I struggle with finding a way to compare 15-bout results against 7-bout results, so this would be very helpful 

[Reonito 1,384]

1 hour ago, Ack! said:

I wonder if someone could explain the rank difference math Asashosakari used in his excellent analysis above? I struggle with finding a way to compare 15-bout results against 7-bout results, so this would be very helpful 

I believe he's just taking the difference between wins and losses for both 15-bout results and 7-bout results, using this difference as the expected number of ranks moved down/up, and essentially treating Ms1-Ms5 as though they were J15-J19 for this specific purpose.

I don't think this method would predict the relative ranking of J and Ms rikishi who end up in Makushita, or even the movements within upper Makushita, though I haven't done the analysis.

Edited Saturday at 17:04 by Reonito

[Gurowake 4,011]

2 hours ago, Ack! said:

I wonder if someone could explain the rank difference math Asashosakari used in his excellent analysis above? I struggle with finding a way to compare 15-bout results against 7-bout results, so this would be very helpful 

Reonito answered the question, but I'll address the struggling a way to compare the different results of bouts.  In general, they are not comparable directly.  That they seem to be doing so for the last few years when it comes to Juryo promotions is very strange.  It's almost as if they wanted for there to not be any question of whether someone deserved a promotion compared to the available demotee and they picked a way that's easy for middle-school educated people to calculate that's not all too far off from what they have been doing in the past, though it's obviously a bit stingier than we're used to.  Generally the results of the 7 match schedule result in a larger movement than the win - losses number suggests for sekitori, and the size of this rank expansion gets slowly larger as you go further down the banzuke.  There's no real way to have any good idea where someone will end up without collecting data for where people similarly situated ended up.  The task is somewhat simplified by there being fairly rigid requirements for promotion to Sandanme and Makushita from the division below, but that doesn't help too much for demotions, nor what exactly they will do at the top of Makushita.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I believe he's just taking the difference between wins and losses for both 15-bout results and 7-bout results, using this difference as the expected number of ranks moved down/up, and essentially treating Ms1-Ms5 as though they were J15-J19 for this specific purpose.

Yup. There are some interesting implications that feel very unintuitive, for example that Ms2w 4-3 would not be strong enough to force down J14e 7-8. I was rooting for Kotokuzan in his last match, but Miyagi finishing 4-3 would have been an acceptable outcome just to see that tested. (Ultimately it didn't matter because Daishoho collapsed even worse than Nabatame, and we wouldn't have got the Nabatame / Miyagi comparison anyway.)

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,261]

On 28/11/2024 at 07:00, Asashosakari said:

I don't think that's true, just look at Shirokuma dropping only 3.5 ranks on his 4-9-2 last time, or Chiyoshoma going down 2.5 on his 5-5-5 the tournament before. Or did you mean after their first juryo score for their demotion within juryo? I can't say I've noticed anything out of the ordinary there, either.

I am thinking of these below but also Kagayaki and Kotoeko within the past two years as well.

 

[Asashosakari 18,959]

22 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I am thinking of these below but also Kagayaki and Kotoeko within the past two years as well.

 

Hidenoumi (J9e 9-6)   J6   Shiden (J7w 8-7)
Tsurugisho (J5w 7-8)  J7   Mitoryu (J3w 6-9)
Asakoryu (J4w 6-9)    J8

What were they supposed to do? At least one of them had to get an overdemotion, or this would have ended up as either:

Hidenoumi (J9e 9-6)   J7   Shiden (J7w 8-7)

or

Shiden (J7w 8-7)      J7   Hidenoumi (J9e 9-6)

both of which are much worse. (And Asakoryu wouldn't have avoided the overdemotion in any case...)

I can't see anything unusual with Kagayaki (after 2023.11) and Kotoeko (after 2024.01) either. Both received less than standard-size demotions and all the juryo rikishi who ended up ahead of them deserved to be ahead by the numbers, too.

Edited Sunday at 03:30 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,959]

Banzuke guesses:

Sadanoumi (M12w 4-11)    J1   Shiden (J6w 10-5)
Ryuden (M13e 4-11)       J2   Kayo (J3w 8-7)
Asakoryu (M17e 6-9)      J3   Tsurugisho (J7w 10-5)
Shishi (M16e 5-10)       J4   Shirokuma (J3e 7-8)
Shimanoumi (J4w 7-8)     J5   Aonishiki (J11e 10-5)
Hidenoumi (J7e 8-7)      J6   Tomokaze (J5w 7-8)
Tochitaikai (J12w 10-5)  J7   Fujiseiun (J10w 9-6)
Bushozan (M17w 3-8-4)    J8   Daiseizan (J12e 9-6)
Mitoryu (J8e 7-8)        J9   Oshoumi (J14w 10-3-2)
Shimazuumi (J5e 5-10)    J10  Hakuyozan (J8w 6-9)
Daiamami (J9e 6-9)       J11  Tohakuryu (J6e 4-9-2)
Hatsuyama (Ms1w 5-2)     J12  Kiryuko (Ms2e 5-2)
Wakaikari (J13e 7-8)     J13  Kotoeiho (J13w 7-8)
Nabatame (J14e 7-8)      J14  Daishoho (J9w 4-11)

Nearly identical to Gurowake's, just half-rank flips for Sadanoumi/Shiden and Kayo/Asakoryu.

Wakanosho (Ms7w 6-1)     Ms1  Kotokuzan (Ms4e 4-3)
Kazekeno (Ms6e 5-2)      Ms2  Akua (Ms5e 4-3)
Kusano (Ms7e 4-3)        Ms3  Hitoshi (Ms12e 5-2)
Osanai (Ms48w 7-0 Y)     Ms4  Miyagi (Ms2w 3-4)
Tochimaru (Ms20e 6-1)    Ms5  Otsuji (Ms14e 5-2)
Onosho (J10e 2-11-2)     Ms6  Ishizaki (Ms22e 6-1)
Nishinoryu (Ms15w 5-2)   Ms7  Kaiseijo (Ms11e 4-3)
Matsui (Ms17e 5-2)       Ms8  Tenshoho (Ms12w 4-3)
Asahakuryu (Ms5w 3-4)    Ms9  Kamito (Ms3e 3-5)
Chiyomaru (J11w 1-14)    Ms10 Takakento (Ms14w 4-3)
Kurohimeyama (Ms6w 3-4)  Ms11 Kaisho (Ms3w 2-5)
Hokutomaru (Ms31w 6-1)   Ms12 Obara (Ms4w 2-5)
Toseiryu (Ms16e 4-3)     Ms13 Nihonyanagi (Ms16w 4-3)
Yuma (Ms22w 5-2)         Ms14 Tosamidori (Ms23e 5-2)
Fujitoshi (Sd18w 7-0 Y)  Ms15 Kyokukaiyu (Ms8e 3-4)

I don't expect much of this to be completely accurate, and I'll be happy if at least the internal orders of the KKs and the MKs are correct.

Hitoshi in front of Miyagi feels like a reach - my impression is that 5-2 over a very high-ranked 3-4 is generally worth at most 9 ranks - but between those two and Osanai, it's Hitoshi who looks like the most appropriate candidate for Ms3w to me.

Onosho outside the top 5 is essentially a combined "he didn't complete the basho" + "is he even going to show up?" penalty. Ms6e is probably as low as he can conceivably go, the high end might well be Ms3e if they're feeling very generous instead. The latter might make the Chiyomaru placement look odd in comparison though, as there's much less reason to be lenient with him with the way the ranks start crowding up after Ms6.

I've not projected much of a bonus for Kamito's 8th match win there, but as that's always a crapshoot I'm not worrying about it too much. Somewhat connected to that: The Kaisho-to-Nihonyanagi block keeps making me wonder if I've been much too lenient with the two 2-5's.

Two more rikishi had rank/record combinations that end up in the top 15 more often than not:

Yoshii (Ms10e 3-4)
Kotokenryu (Ms19w 4-3)

Kotokenryu could conceivably take Kyokukaiyu's place, but I went with the 3-4 up there because the 4-3 promotions are necessarily small in general in that area this time, so there's no compelling reason to treat Kotokenryu to anything higher than Ms16e.

That's 10 promotions into the top 15 ranks (11 if Kotokenryu goes in), the corresponding demotions are:

Yoshii (Ms10e 3-4)
Satorufuji (Ms11w 3-4)
Dewanoryu (Ms13e 3-4)

Toshunryu (Ms8w 2-5)
Kitadaichi (Ms15e 2-5)

Daishomaru (Ms9e 1-6)
Chiyotora (Ms10w 1-6)

Asanoyama (Ms1e 0-0-7)
Chiyosakae (Ms9w 0-0-7)
Chiyonoo (Ms13w 0-0-7)