Kyushu 2024 Promotion etc discussion

[Yamanashi 3,772]

8 hours ago, Gurowake said:

it would be reasonable for Kagayaki or Tamashoho to take Ryuden's spot when the latter loses even if the Juryo rikishi lose

It's possible for Kagayaki to take Ryuden's place without anyone being able to tell the difference.

[Wakawakawaka 146]

At first yes, but it would only be a matter of time. After the first 2 minutes, if the match is still going on, we'll know it's Ryuden.

[Reonito 1,382]

49 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Right, and that's sort of the point. If they would be willing to consider it at all in a vacuum, I don't think there's a prayer of it happening when you consider he'll have to beat Onosato to hit 7-8. So that shows how locked into K I think Abi and Waka are.

Several recent misses from M2 with 10 wins make me think WTK would be out of luck with a loss if Kiri wins. For M3 with 11, we just have Hokutofuji, so that's harder to predict.

[Tigerboy1966 1,409]

So we now have 4 demotable records in juryo and only 2 clear promotion cases. So if they absolutely positively have to fill the extra slots, what's the queue order?

I am guessing Kotokuzan, Akua, Kazekeno.

[Bunbukuchagama 701]

4 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

So if they absolutely positively have to fill the extra slots

They don't.

[robnplunder 975]

11 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Makuuchi <> Juryo

We now have Kitanowaka, Kinbozan, and Hakuoho with promotable records, while there's little hope for Shishi and Bushozan staying.  Asakoryu probably doesn't have much hope either, but he might pull level with Ryuden in the demotion queue, so might be saved with a win, a Ryuden loss, and a loss from all the Juryo bubble rikishi, who are Tamashoho, Kagayaki, and Tsurugisho.  Ryuden is also currently demotable and is hard to not demote if he loses, as it would be reasonable for Kagayaki or Tamashoho to take Ryuden's spot when the latter loses even if the Juryo rikishi lose.  If Ryuden wins, he might be saved by there not being a victory among the Juryo rikishi.  If there are multiple victories among the Juryo bubble rikishi, then other possible demotees might be in play.  Sadanoumi and Tokihayate need wins to be safe, with Sadanoumi first in line to go down based on the number of promotion seekers.  If neither of those rikishi lose, then the weakest promotions from Juryo might not take place, and thus Hakuoho I don't think is guaranteed promotion right now, as he might be behind both Kagayaki and Tamashoho in the queue after Day 15 as well as being behind Kinbozan and Kitanowaka regardless, and there might only be 4 rikishi with demotable records.  The latter should be guaranteed a promotion with a KK at J1e as there are enough openings for those who obviously need to be promoted ahead of him, and while Hakuoho might stay ahead of him by the numbers, it's very close and not close enough to deny the promotion for a winning record at the top rank.  If Hakuoho wins he's obviously ahead of Kagayaki and Tamashoho and thus would certainly be promoted.

None of the rikishi involved face each other on senshuraku unless you count Kitanowaka vs. Tsurugisho, but Kitanowaka is probably good for promotion regardless as mentioned previously.

My sentimental choice is Tamashoho.  I am hoping Hakuoho to make it, too.  He looked so promising before the injury.  

[Tigerboy1966 1,409]

Looks like Tokihayate will be the recipient of the "Nishikifuji-sho" for an extremely lucky escape from relegation.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

Oh my, the next GTB will be hilarious. Massive gap after M3 that gives way to a wild mess after M6.

Anyway, five up / down between M and J, and I would guess only two up / down between J and Ms.

[visitor_22 28]

Did Hoshoryu get 'tsunatori' rank just like Kotozakura? Or Kotozakura is only 'tsunatori?

[Gurowake 4,011]

My take on Juryo next basho:

Shiden(10-5 J6w)	J1	Sadanoumi(4-11 M12w)
Ryuden(4-11 M13e)	J2	Asakoryu(6-9 M17e)
Kayo(8-7 J3w)	J3	Tsurugisho(10-5 J7w)
Shishi(5-10 M16e)	J4	Shirokuma(7-8 J3e)
Shimanoumi(7-8 J4w)	J5	Aonishiki(10-5 J11e)
Hidenoumi(8-7 J7e)	J6	Tomokaze(7-8 J5w)
Tochitaikai(10-5 J12w)	J7	Fujiseiun(9-6 J10w)
Bushozan(3-8 M17w)	J8	Daiseizan(9-6 J12e)
Mitoryu(7-8 J8e)	J9	Oshoumi(10-3 J14w)
Shimazuumi(5-10 J5e)	J10	Hakuyozan(6-9 J8w)
Daiamami(6-9 J9e)	J11	Tohakuryu(4-9 J6e)
Hatsuyama(5-2 Ms1w)	J12	Kiryuko(5-2 Ms2e)
Wakaikari(7-8 J13e)	J13	Kotoeiho(7-8 J13w)
Nabatame(7-8 J14e)	J14	Daishoho(4-11 J9w)

Shiden did have pretty much everything go in his favor, and he's still not likely to be promoted in favor of Tokihayate, but it could happen.

Edited November 24 by Gurowake

[Tigerboy1966 1,409]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

My take on Juryo next basho:

Shiden(10-5 J6w)	J1	Sadanoumi(4-11 M12w)
Ryuden(4-11 M13e)	J2	Asakoryu(6-9 M17e)
Kayo(8-7 J3w)	J3	Tsurugisho(10-5 J7w)

My draft is very similar. The biggest difference is near the top: I have Kayo/Tsurugisho at j2 and Ryuden/Asakoryu at j3.

[Reonito 1,382]

14 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

So we now have 4 demotable records in juryo and only 2 clear promotion cases. So if they absolutely positively have to fill the extra slots, what's the queue order?

I am guessing Kotokuzan, Akua, Kazekeno.

There's absolutely no reason to send down Nabatame with a 7-8 without strong promotion pressure when they can slide him over to 14w (remember that Oshoumi just stayed with a 6-9 from 14w). I think the only question is whether they exchange Daishoho with Kotokuzan; seems like they should but recent decisions suggest they might not.

[Reonito 1,382]

15 hours ago, robnplunder said:

My sentimental choice is Tamashoho.  I am hoping Hakuoho to make it, too.  He looked so promising before the injury.  

It's very straightforward in the end. The promotion order is Kinbozan, Kitanowaka/Hakuoho, Kagayaki/Tamashoho. The demotion order is Bushozan, Shishi/Asakoryu/Ryuden, Sadanoumi. So 5 up, 5 down. Tsurugisho would probably have replaced Tokihayate if he won, but now the latter should luck out despite a demotable record, though they could conceivably replace him with Shiden.

Edited November 24 by Reonito

[Koorifuu 915]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

There's absolutely no reason to send down Nabatame with a 7-8 without strong promotion pressure when they can slide him over to 14w (remember that Oshoumi just stayed with a 6-9 from 14w). I think the only question is whether they exchange Daishoho with Kotokuzan; seems like they should but recent decisions suggest they might not.

I'm with Gurowake in that Nabatame is very likely to stay 14e, if anything, as there's Daishoho/Kotokuzan.

Edited November 24 by Koorifuu

[Gurowake 4,011]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

There's absolutely no reason to send down Nabatame with a 7-8 without strong promotion pressure when they can slide him over to 14w

Or just not move him.  I don't see any real possibility for the 3 with a 7-8 near the bottom other than them retaining their rank.  The only thing they could do is put Daishoho above them, but I don't see why they would.

[visitor_22 28]

Is Kotozakura only tsunatori for January tournament? Or Hosh also granted tsunatori 'rank'?

[RabidJohn 1,718]

4 hours ago, visitor_22 said:

Is Kotozakura only tsunatori for January tournament? Or Hosh also granted tsunatori 'rank'?

Rijicho Hakkaku has said yes, which is a little unusual as such pronouncements would normally be head shimpan Takadagawa's territory.

But who really knows until it happens? Kisenosato was not tsunatori going into the basho he finally won, yet he was coming out of it.

Edited November 25 by RabidJohn

[Tigerboy1966 1,409]

On 24/11/2024 at 05:47, robnplunder said:

My sentimental choice is Tamashoho.

Well he made it. One of my favourites, a very elegant and skillful wrestler; just a bit short on strength and bulk. Fair reward for having to fight Tamawashi every single bloody day in training.

[Koorifuu 915]

On 24/11/2024 at 02:43, Yamanashi said:

It's possible for Kagayaki to take Ryuden's place without anyone being able to tell the difference.

Glad I'm not the only one.

[Yamanashi 3,772]

25 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Glad I'm not the only one.

... and when Okinoumi was also active I thought Kintamayama was running repeats on his daily videos.

[Reonito 1,382]

2 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Glad I'm not the only one.

Their styles are completely different, no?

[Yarimotsu 548]

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well he made it. One of my favourites, a very elegant and skillful wrestler; just a bit short on strength and bulk. Fair reward for having to fight Tamawashi every single bloody day in training.

Yeah I don't expect him to do well in makuuchi but then, it is a miracle how he sticks around in juryo. I'm also a fan of his style - every bout is exciting and every time he tries his absolute best.

[Koorifuu 915]

8 hours ago, Reonito said:

Their styles are completely different, no?

They don't even look alike, up close. It's more of a demeanour / body language thing. They give off very similar vibes.

[Tigerboy1966 1,409]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

11 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Glad I'm not the only one.

Their styles are completely different, no?

As they are from the same stable I'm surprised that they don't get Ryuden to teach Kagayaki a bit of belt technique and some tips on how to respond to lateral movement. Fourteen years in the game and Kagayaki still just does the Kagayaki thing.

[Gurowake 4,011]

What an absolute nightmare.  All those 7-8s and 8-7 headed directly for the same section of the banzuke.