Reonito 1,382 Posted Sunday at 16:45 12 hours ago, Asashosakari said: Tochimaru (Ms20e 6-1) Ms5 Otsuji (Ms14e 5-2) So if they're generous with Onosho, Tochimaru is more likely to take the final spot in the promotion zone than Otsuji? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ack! 445 Posted Sunday at 19:03 On 30/11/2024 at 07:59, Ack! said: I wonder if someone could explain the rank difference math Asashosakari used in his excellent analysis above? I struggle with finding a way to compare 15-bout results against 7-bout results, so this would be very helpful On 30/11/2024 at 09:02, Reonito said: I believe he's just taking the difference between wins and losses for both 15-bout results and 7-bout results, using this difference as the expected number of ranks moved down/up, and essentially treating Ms1-Ms5 as though they were J15-J19 for this specific purpose. I don't think this method would predict the relative ranking of J and Ms rikishi who end up in Makushita, or even the movements within upper Makushita, though I haven't done the analysis. On 30/11/2024 at 10:10, Asashosakari said: Yup. There are some interesting implications that feel very unintuitive, for example that Ms2w 4-3 would not be strong enough to force down J14e 7-8. I was rooting for Kotokuzan in his last match, but Miyagi finishing 4-3 would have been an acceptable outcome just to see that tested. (Ultimately it didn't matter because Daishoho collapsed even worse than Nabatame, and we wouldn't have got the Nabatame / Miyagi comparison anyway.) My mistake: I meant to say the win/loss difference difference math. The rank difference math is intuitive, but the win/loss difference math I cannot fathom. Any explanation of that would be appreciated. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,959 Posted Sunday at 20:30 3 hours ago, Reonito said: So if they're generous with Onosho, Tochimaru is more likely to take the final spot in the promotion zone than Otsuji? Classic 50/50 decision. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,382 Posted Sunday at 20:51 1 hour ago, Ack! said: My mistake: I meant to say the win/loss difference difference math. The rank difference math is intuitive, but the win/loss difference math I cannot fathom. Any explanation of that would be appreciated. Literally just subtract wins from losses. So 4-3 is +1, 5-2 is +3, etc. 5-10 is –5. As I said, this may not predict movement within makushita, but seems to predict the exchanges... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ack! 445 Posted Monday at 16:26 19 hours ago, Reonito said: Literally just subtract wins from losses. So 4-3 is +1, 5-2 is +3, etc. 5-10 is –5. As I said, this may not predict movement within makushita, but seems to predict the exchanges... And now it's so obvious it smacks me in the face... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
