Guess Ura's Aite - January 2025 edition

[Jejima 1,384]

New Banzuke for March 2025

Gurowake (Y1E 10-5)          Y
Sumo Spiffy (O1E 10-5)     O   Bunbukuchagama (O1W 10-5)
Ryoshishokunin (S1W 10-5) S1   Profomisakari (S1E 9-6)
Jakusotsu (K1E 9-6)        K1   Fashiriteta (K1W 9-6)
                                            K2  Oshirokita (M1E 10-5)
shimodahito (M2W 7-8)  M1 Hakuhonofan (M1W Kosho)  
Jejima (M2E 6-9)             M2 WAKATAKE (M3E 5-6-4)   
The Kyokai (M3W 5-10)  M3 Andonishiki (mz 6-3-6)

Comments:
Gurowake has now won the last four yushos! Well done!
Sumo Spiffy will be considered for promotion to Yokozuna with a Yusho in March.
Bunbukuchagama will be considered for promotion to Yokozuna with a Yusho in March.

Edited January 25 by Jejima
Oops! The Sekiwakes should be swapped over (by the long-established guidelines for this game).

[Gurowake 4,050]

It feels kind of a let down to "win" this way, as there were multiple other people who basically did just as well.  I think there really needs to be some way to earn bonus points that are use solely in the event of a full basho tie like this.  I think the best way to do this is simply if there's a chance of this sort of tie on day 15, to have those in contention to tie give a full Makuuchi toriikumi and see who can get the most right.  While that doesn't absolutely prevent a tie if all you're counting is the number right, if that happens you can then look at the number of ranks off in some sort of fashion, though there are multiple ways of doing that.  Perhaps we could even have ranks off with the final aite be the secondary tiebreaker, with there being an advantage to being either higher or lower (I don't know which one makes more sense), and then if people pick the same aite have the first entry be the final tiebreaker. 

Overall, I just don't want to be declared the winner simply by rank.  Ozumo did away with that a long time ago.

[Jakusotsu 5,960]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Overall, I just don't want to be declared the winner simply by rank.

I have no problem at all with that. It's not so simple as you make it sound. Merits of the past and such...

[Sumo Spiffy 556]

6 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

Wat.  

Why would you schedule Kotozakura - Hoshoryu but not Onosato-Wakamotoharu? 
(Onosato was my first guess, but I couldn't see a world where Onosato didn't get either Kotozakura or WMH after some reflection.) 
Hell, Hoshoryu-Ura at least gives him an opponent fighting for something.  

Other headscratchers include Takanosho/Kagayaki and Tobizaru/Meisei.  I see no reason this couldn't be the other way around, unless there's a brother-in-law thing going on. 

(Congrats, Gurowake! With Rank that its privileges.)

I'm pretty sure it just comes down to the fact Onosato is an ozeki with a winning record, and Ura is a joi rikishi he hasn't fought with at least an even record. That probably looks like a more appropriate matchup than Wakamotoharu's 5-9.

FWIW, I figured on the "obvious" outcomes of Oho beating Takanosho and Wakatakakage beating Ura. That would have put Taka and Ura at 6-8. Then it was a question of who wins between Shodai and Midori. If it was Shodai, he would almost certainly get a Darwin match, which slides Takanosho over to face Ura. If it was Midori, Takanosho would presumably pull Shodai. But, because Midori's way further down, it wasn't a given he'd have a Darwin match available, and if not, he was a pretty reasonable opponent for 6-8 Ura. That's why he was my backup pick.

I'd like to think I would have at least considered Onosato as an opponent if I thought Ura would beat Waka Prime, but I doubt it. Dragging Endo all the way up to face Waka Deux didn't seem reasonable.

Edited January 25 by Sumo Spiffy

[Sumo Spiffy 556]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

It feels kind of a let down to "win" this way, as there were multiple other people who basically did just as well.  I think there really needs to be some way to earn bonus points that are use solely in the event of a full basho tie like this.  I think the best way to do this is simply if there's a chance of this sort of tie on day 15, to have those in contention to tie give a full Makuuchi toriikumi and see who can get the most right.  While that doesn't absolutely prevent a tie if all you're counting is the number right, if that happens you can then look at the number of ranks off in some sort of fashion, though there are multiple ways of doing that.  Perhaps we could even have ranks off with the final aite be the secondary tiebreaker, with there being an advantage to being either higher or lower (I don't know which one makes more sense), and then if people pick the same aite have the first entry be the final tiebreaker. 

Overall, I just don't want to be declared the winner simply by rank.  Ozumo did away with that a long time ago.

Maybe we can do a small-scale experimental version of this next time—given how chaotic the scheduling can be later on, perhaps we just do the sanyaku schedule for day 15. Or the sanyaku schedule for days 13-15. We have to do that anyway as a starting point, so it's not asking players to expend much (or any) extra effort, and there are often still enough possibilities in sanyaku scheduling near the end for that to draw lines between players.

Edit: Another reason to use days other than day 15, IMO, is that the game is about schedule predictions, and day 15 is the one we can't get right just by knowing how they make the schedule. We also have to figure out, in at least some cases, who's going to win or lose on day 14. Putting more emphasis on day 15 isn't wrong, but it does somewhat change the nature of the game for those in contention at the end.

Edited January 25 by Sumo Spiffy

[Jakusotsu 5,960]

40 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Or the sanyaku schedule for days 13-15.

That would have been pretty boring in days of yore.

[Jejima 1,384]

I don't think that this has become a regular enough issue to be a problem (yet). *If* the Kyokai had not won on so many days when there was no definite train, we would not have had this situation this basho. So, maybe no need to 'fix' a problem that might not truly exist? (After all, this game has been going on many years already....)

[Sumo Spiffy 556]

22 minutes ago, Jejima said:

I don't think that this has become a regular enough issue to be a problem (yet). *If* the Kyokai had not won on so many days when there was no definite train, we would not have had this situation this basho. So, maybe no need to 'fix' a problem that might not truly exist? (After all, this game has been going on many years already....)

I checked real quick on how many people had a chance to win on day 15 during 2024.

November: 2
September: 5
July: 2
May: 1
March: 5
January: 4

With the chaos of final-day scheduling, even though lots of options are theoretically available (especially when the focus of the game is in the six-to-eight win range), there often aren't more than two or three picks with a clear logic to them. That's fine if only two, maybe three people are in contention. When it's more, though, those at the back of line either have to take a wild stab at a probable wrong answer or accept that someone will stay ahead of them on the basis of rank. And taking a stab from the back of the line leaves one open to getting nudged down the ranks, which makes winning next time even harder.

Given that half of the 2024 bashos had more than three people with a chance to win at the end, any kind of tiebreaker that gives everyone a chance to win without getting insanely lucky could keep the game fun for anyone in the lead pack. Plus, and maybe even more importantly, a tiebreaker could be applied without impacting anyone's record, so nobody who wants a crack at winning has to take the risk of a loss that moves them down the charts.

[Jakusotsu 5,960]

39 minutes ago, Jejima said:

*If* the Kyokai had not won on so many days when there was no definite train, we would not have had this situation this basho.

Excactly. The Kyokai winning on at least three days with more than five different picks (I've lost count by now) is unheard of, and I hope it will never happen again.

[Ryoshishokunin 286]

I'm frankly baffled that we managed to *perfectly* miss all of the ambiguous days.  It's really something.  (Oh, and day 2, where the kyokai is the one that missed the train.) 

Some of that is us playing with a lower rikishi than usual--Ura had a particularly delicate rank this basho.  Combined with the yusho race.... 

I would've happily picked someone other than Takanosho if i'd had the opportunity to pick after the others--or set up contingencies in private.  Gurowake's late pick was quite harmful to me there as it is set up now.  

(I would not be opposed to some kind of tiebreaker procedure.)

[Sumo Spiffy 556]

6 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

I'm frankly baffled that we managed to *perfectly* miss all of the ambiguous days.  It's really something.  (Oh, and day 2, where the kyokai is the one that missed the train.) 

Some of that is us playing with a lower rikishi than usual--Ura had a particularly delicate rank this basho.  Combined with the yusho race.... 

I would've happily picked someone other than Takanosho if i'd had the opportunity to pick after the others--or set up contingencies in private.  Gurowake's late pick was quite harmful to me there as it is set up now.  

(I would not be opposed to some kind of tiebreaker procedure.)

This is another issue, although less purely about the structure and more to do with the players. Guro usually can't pick until later (I think because of work, usually). Bunbun rarely ever picks more than a couple hours before deadline (don't know why). My availability swings not just with life, but with daylight savings time. Sometimes I can pick early, sometimes not. And we're the top three. The idea is that leaders pick early so those further down can make different choices for competitive reasons, but if real life doesn't allow for it...