Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Hatsu 2025

[Asashosakari 19,420]

Seki-Toto (play):

Kyushu 2024 ended up as the third straight Toto tournament with a yusho line of just 12 wins, and the two players who achieved that win total could scarcely be ranked any lower - both veteran player Andrasoyama (who won the yusho) and second-basho rookie Kachikoshi (who finished a narrow runner-up) had entered the tournament from our small makushita division.

But the championship aside, the tournament was dominated by the makuuchi half of the field, which averaged almost 55% daily wins (8.2 wins per 15). 21 players, and thus exactly half the division, finished 9-6 or better, so it won't come as a surprise that the top division scores had to be reduced by one win to make the banzuke work. The good news is that this made everything fall into place pretty well, and although - as usual - the situation relaxed significantly towards the bottom of makuuchi there are no particularly odd movements in evidence this time around, as there were no 8-7 -> 7-8 results by low-ranked players (who might have ended up with a promotion).

All six top-rankers were active in the basho, but only Norizo excelled by posting division-leading 11 wins. Fellow yokozuna Pandaazuma and ozeki Susanoo did manage 9-6 records to keep their noses clean under the demotion/retirement regulations introduced this year which punish 8-7 scores. The remaining trio didn't fare that well: Joaoiyama achieved 8 wins but is in no danger of demotion from the ozeki rank for now, unlike Ganzohnesushi whose 7-8 performance has made him properly kadoban for Hatsu basho. And finally it's also red alert time for yokozuna Kaito who scored 8-7 in Aki and now just 6-9 in Kyushu. Another makekoshi will mean relinquishing his tsuna, 8 wins would keep his career alive for now but with continuing risk for Haru and beyond.

So, it's up in the air just how many Y/O we're going to have in March, but for January their number will be seven thanks to a player earning promotion to ozeki with these results (the records are unadjusted):

2024.05 M9w 10-5
2024.07 M4w 12-3 D
2024.09 K1e 9-6
2024.11 Sw 11-4

It's not a super-dominant run, but 32 wins are plenty in a series of tournaments that had a combined yusho line of only 36-9. The lowish start at M4 somewhat weighed against it, but the additional 10-win performance from Natsu provided some positive counter-weight, so all in all it's a deserved promotion. Congrats, GONZABUROW!

The other Kyushu sekiwake Kobashi has been flirting with promotion as well, but has yet to top 30 wins; he is leading the third-highest rank again for Hatsu. Moving up are former long-time ozeki ScreechingOwl, who was the only komusubi to finish better than 8-7, and Andoreasu who scored 11 wins at M1. That could have landed him at komusubi, but Andoreasu's Aki result was also 11-4 so I've opted to place him as sekiwake to acknowledge the potential ozeki challenge. I'll say that it's definitely gonna take something better than 32-in-3 for this M7 > M1 > S run to conclude successfully, though. (The two results before the back-to-back 11-4 were both makekoshi, so it's not only the extremely low starting rank that's not helping here.)

With 10 sanyaku slots accounted for from Y to S, the komusubi rank wrote itself with just two players placed there. TochiYESshin enters on the East side by going 8-7 (after the adjustment) at M1e, his West side counterpart Athenayama is slightly lucky to move up with the same score from M2e.

Not much else to say as there were no unusual decisions to make anywhere in these new rankings. As usual, the banzuke displayed below is the prettified version with the adjusted scores shown directly. The full data can be found behind the spoiler tag.

Oh, BTW, all 70 players who were ranked in makuuchi or juryo for Kyushu competed in that tournament. That's not happening often, in any game.

Norizo (Y1e 11-4)           Y1   Pandaazuma (Y1w 9-6)
Kaito (Y2e 6-9)             Y2   -
Susanoo (O1w 9-6)           O1   Joaoiyama (O2w 8-7)
Ganzohnesushi (O1e 7-8)     O2   GONZABUROW (Sw 10-5)
Kobashi (Se 9-6)            S1   ScreechingOwl (K2e 9-6)
-                           S2   Andoreasu (M1w 10-5)
TochiYESshin (M1e 8-7)      K    Athenayama (M2e 8-7)

Oskahanada (K1e 7-8)        M1   Kajiyanosho (M2w 8-7)
Chijanofuji (M3e 8-7)       M2   Jakusotsu (M8w 10-5)
Unkonoyama (M4e 8-7)        M3   DeRosa (K1w 6-9)
Itchynotoe (M5w 8-7)        M4   Kotononami (K2w 6-9)
Kitakachiyama (M8e 9-6)     M5   Metzinowaka (M11w 10-5)
Chishafuwaku (M3w 7-8)      M6   Gernobono (M9w 8-7)
Bill (M10e 8-7)             M7   Asapedroryu (M12w 9-6)
Toonoryu (M6w 7-8)          M8   Flohru (M4w 6-9)
Kuroimori (M13e 9-6)        M9   Konosato (M5e 6-9)
BlackPinkMawashi (M13w 9-6) M10  Andonishiki (M9e 7-8)
Kintamayama (M7e 6-9)       M11  Rowitoro (M6e 4-11)
Gansekiiwa (M11e 6-9)       M12  Oortael (M7w 4-11)
Asashosakari (J4e 9-6)      M13  Kaiowaka (J2e 8-7)
Effinojo (M12e 5-10)        M14  Onakaderu (J2w 8-6-1)
Chelseayama (M14w 6-9)      M15  Balon (M10w 4-11)

Frinkanohana (J7w 10-5)     J1   Holleshoryu (M15w 6-9)
Biloumaru (J7e 9-6)         J2   Anjoboshi (J8e 9-5-1)
Saruyama (J10w 10-5)        J3   Papayasu (J3e 7-8)
Kachikoshi (Ms4e 12-3 D)    J4   Oyama (J11e 9-6)
Ulishimaru (J4w 7-7-1)      J5   Hana-ichi (J1e 5-10)
Terarno (M15e 3-12)         J6   Bunbukuchagama (J5w 7-8)
Ahokaina (J1w 5-9-1)        J7   Gaanaag (M14e 2-13)
Takanorappa (Ms4w 11-3-1)   J8   Andrasoyama (Ms8e 12-3 Y)
WAKATAKE (J5e 6-8-1)        J9   Gawasukotto (J6e 6-9)
Choshu-yuki (J9e 7-8)       J10  Kishikaisei (J3w 4-9-2)
FujiSlava (Ms3w 8-7)        J11  Achiyama (J11w 7-8)
Gusoyama (J12e 7-6-2)       J12  Chudorj (J8w 5-9-1)
Mariohana (J6w 4-11)        J13  Beeftank (J9w 5-10)
Ketsukai (J14e 7-7-1)       J14  Joputosu (J13w 6-9)

Fujisan (Ms2e 7-5-3)        Ms1  Warusaru (J10e 4-11)
Profomisakari (J14w 5-10)   Ms2  Hakunojo (Ms5e 6-9)
Katoomaru (J13e 3-12)       Ms3  Unagiyutaka2 (J12w 2-9-4)
Benihana (Ms3e 4-10-1)      Ms4  Dan Koloff (Ms2w 3-12)
Umigame (Ms1e 2-13)         Ms5  Hokuseiho (Ms6e 4-2-9)
Nantonoyama (Ms7w 4-10-1)   Ms6  Akishiki (Ms1w 1-4-10)
Multimikstar (NR 4-9-2)     Ms7  Raiden (Ms8w 1-0-14)
Sherlockiama (Ms6w 0-0-15)  Ms8  Backeido (Ms9e kosho)
Terukaze (NR 0-2-13)        Ms9  -

Spoiler

Norizo (Y1e 11-4)                   Y1   Pandaazuma (Y1w 9-6)
Kaito (Y2e 6-9)                     Y2   -
Susanoo (O1w 9-6)                   O1   Joaoiyama (O2w 8-7)
Ganzohnesushi (O1e 7-8)             O2   GONZABUROW (Sw 11-4 -> 10-5)
Kobashi (Se 10-5 -> 9-6)            S1   ScreechingOwl (K2e 10-5 -> 9-6)
-                                   S2   Andoreasu (M1w 11-4 -> 10-5)
TochiYESshin (M1e 9-6 -> 8-7)       K    Athenayama (M2e 9-6 -> 8-7)

Oskahanada (K1e 8-7 -> 7-8)         M1   Kajiyanosho (M2w 9-6 -> 8-7)
Chijanofuji (M3e 9-6 -> 8-7)        M2   Jakusotsu (M8w 11-4 -> 10-5)
Unkonoyama (M4e 9-6 -> 8-7)         M3   DeRosa (K1w 7-8 -> 6-9)
Itchynotoe (M5w 9-6 -> 8-7)         M4   Kotononami (K2w 7-7-1 -> 6-9)
Kitakachiyama (M8e 10-5 -> 9-6)     M5   Metzinowaka (M11w 11-4 -> 10-5)
Chishafuwaku (M3w 8-7 -> 7-8)       M6   Gernobono (M9w 9-6 -> 8-7)
Bill (M10e 9-6 -> 8-7)              M7   Asapedroryu (M12w 10-5 -> 9-6)
Toonoryu (M6w 8-7 -> 7-8)           M8   Flohru (M4w 7-8 -> 6-9)
Kuroimori (M13e 10-4-1 -> 9-6)      M9   Konosato (M5e 7-8 -> 6-9)
BlackPinkMawashi (M13w 10-5 -> 9-6) M10  Andonishiki (M9e 8-7 -> 7-8)
Kintamayama (M7e 7-7-1 -> 6-9)      M11  Rowitoro (M6e 5-9-1 -> 4-11)
Gansekiiwa (M11e 7-8 -> 6-9)        M12  Oortael (M7w 5-10 -> 4-11)
Asashosakari (J4e 9-6)              M13  Kaiowaka (J2e 8-7)
Effinojo (M12e 6-9 -> 5-10)         M14  Onakaderu (J2w 8-6-1)
Chelseayama (M14w 7-8 -> 6-9)       M15  Balon (M10w 5-10 -> 4-11)

Frinkanohana (J7w 10-5)             J1   Holleshoryu (M15w 7-8 -> 6-9)
Biloumaru (J7e 9-6)                 J2   Anjoboshi (J8e 9-5-1)
Saruyama (J10w 10-5)                J3   Papayasu (J3e 7-8)
Kachikoshi (Ms4e 12-3 D)            J4   Oyama (J11e 9-6)
Ulishimaru (J4w 7-7-1)              J5   Hana-ichi (J1e 5-10)
Terarno (M15e 4-8-3 -> 3-12)        J6   Bunbukuchagama (J5w 7-8)
Ahokaina (J1w 5-9-1)                J7   Gaanaag (M14e 3-12 -> 2-13)
Takanorappa (Ms4w 11-3-1)           J8   Andrasoyama (Ms8e 12-3 Y)
WAKATAKE (J5e 6-8-1)                J9   Gawasukotto (J6e 6-9)
Choshu-yuki (J9e 7-8)               J10  Kishikaisei (J3w 4-9-2)
FujiSlava (Ms3w 8-7)                J11  Achiyama (J11w 7-8)
Gusoyama (J12e 7-6-2)               J12  Chudorj (J8w 5-9-1)
Mariohana (J6w 4-11)                J13  Beeftank (J9w 5-10)
Ketsukai (J14e 7-7-1)               J14  Joputosu (J13w 6-9)

Fujisan (Ms2e 7-5-3)                Ms1  Warusaru (J10e 4-11)
Profomisakari (J14w 5-10)           Ms2  Hakunojo (Ms5e 6-9)
Katoomaru (J13e 3-12)               Ms3  Unagiyutaka2 (J12w 2-9-4)
Benihana (Ms3e 4-10-1)              Ms4  Dan Koloff (Ms2w 3-12)
Umigame (Ms1e 2-13)                 Ms5  Hokuseiho (Ms6e 4-2-9)
Nantonoyama (Ms7w 4-10-1)           Ms6  Akishiki (Ms1w 1-4-10)
Multimikstar (NR 4-9-2)             Ms7  Raiden (Ms8w 1-0-14)
Sherlockiama (Ms6w 0-0-15)          Ms8  Backeido (Ms9e kosho)
Terukaze (NR 0-2-13)                Ms9  -

 

Edited January 10 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,420]

Seki-Quadrumvirate (play):

Kyushu 2024 produced some of the highest scores ever seen in Quad, including these extremely rare winning streaks:

On 22/11/2024 at 00:29, Asashosakari said:

Just opening this thread to highlight the astonishing fact that two players, Bunbukuchagama and ScreechingOwl, are 12-0 in Quad - it's a super high-scoring edition, but still. If I didn't overlook anyone, that was previously only done three times in total in the game's 20-year history: Norizo's glorious zensho-yusho in Natsu 2005, Vikanohara in Natsu 2007 (continued LLW to win the yusho at 13-2), and finally gernobono in Haru 2020 (LWW for a 14-1 yusho).

However, given that everybody was scoring very well (which wasn't the case for the other three 12-0 starts), the yusho race was left rather open - and sure enough, neither Day 12 leader managed to hang on. ScreechingOwl did add a 13th win before losing on the final two days, while Bunbukuchagama fell on Days 13 and 14 and eventually added win #13 on senshuraku. The title finally went to Kobashi, who had actually opened the tournament with a loss - but then streaked through 14 straight wins! An incredible achievement.

All in all the tournament finished with a win rate of 58.1% (8.7 wins per 15 days), the third-highest tournament average ever. Only three players who completed all 15 days finished worse than 6-9. Nevertheless, there were stark quality differences between the 42 makuuchi players and the other 42 participants. In makuuchi the average player was successful with a whopping 62.6% of their daily predictions, just about 9.4 wins per 15, while juryo and below averaged "only" 53.4% (almost exactly 8 per 15).

With an overall average above 8.5 wins it was a foregone conclusion that everybody's scores would have to be reduced by - at least - one win. I generally try to keep score changes to a necessary minimum and so I actually created the banzuke with that one-win reduction for all players. Surprisingly that worked even in makuuchi (albeit with a big expansion of the sanyaku ranks), despite there being 30 KK and just 12 MK now. Job done?

After letting that prelim banzuke sit for a few days it didn't look nearly so appealing anymore. In unadjusted scores, the 42 makuuchi players posted these results:

17x 10 wins and better
13x 9 wins
12x 8 wins or worse

The big winners of the one-win adjustment were the 9-6's, at the expense of everybody else. That felt wrong when their score was actually almost half a win below average. Second attempt with a two-win reduction - better, but that ended up looking too harsh on the 9-6 -> 7-8 players. Ultimately I settled on what's effectively a reduction by 1.5 wins for all results, such that the original 9-6 scores were treated as 7.5 wins, retaining half the ranking credit that's normally available to KK records.

However, the banzuke below will show the adjustment as minus two wins anyway, as 9-6 effectively still turned out to be a makekoshi for everybody, just MKs treated with a bit of leniency. A few of those 13 players have actually seen their ranking improve slightly in the banzuke notation, but it's entirely an artifact of sanyaku going from 9 slots to 11. I do normally try to avoid that because it's not standard banzuke behaviour, but all the ways to get around it would have made the new ranking less fair, and fairness >>> prettiness, as far as I'm concerned. Anyway, looking at makuuchi as an ordinal ranking from 1 to 42, all 9-6's held steady at best and most of them received small demotions, so it's appropriate enough to display them as adjusted 7-8's.

Whew, so much for that, now some news about individual player performances. The makuuchi average didn't quite reach 9.5 wins, but it was very close - from the division total of 392-234 it would have only taken 5 losses turning into wins to break that barrier. That was great news for some of our four ozeki as it meant a rule-based adjustment of only one win for their records, rather than the 1.5 / 2 wins inflicted on the rest of the division.

• Ganzohnesushi was the top-ranked ozeki in Kyushu and also posted the best result, a 10-5 -> 9-6. He wasn't in any state of kadoban and obviously stays in the clear for the upcoming basho as well.
• Kaito also wasn't kadoban but only went 9-6 -> 8-7, so he's rather lucky to remain kadoban-free due to the favourable score adjustment.
• Norizo was soft kadoban following a makekoshi in Aki, and unfortunately produced a hopeless line of 8-7 -> 7-8. He is now entering Hatsu basho hard kadoban and at risk of demotion with another MK.
• Jakusotsu already was hard kadoban in November; in fact for the second straight tournament after an 8-7 minimum KK in Aki had failed to improve his status. This time he avoided the demotion to sekiwake by the absolute narrowest of margins, going 9-6 -> 8-7 with a win on Day 15. Still, that means hard kadoban #3 for Hatsu.

All in all, considering that no less than 10 makuuchi players achieved 11 or more wins, having the ozeki squad top out at 10-5 was somewhat disappointing, especially since a high scoring environment should normally favour the best players. (You guys are the best players, right? )

Kyushu opened with five players ranked sekiwake or komusubi, but only two of them achieved records that allowed them to stay in the titled ranks. Yusho winner Kobashi has moved up from K to S, and even pushed the incumbent Sekiwake East Unkonoyama over to the West side. Komusubi has an all-new look with five promotees from the maegashira ranks. Space permitting, I generally promote everybody that deserves it by the numbers, and these are in fact all the players who still had enough of a case after the 1.5 wins reduction.

And now finally, here's the new banzuke, as always first the pretty version and then the gritty one:

Ganzohnesushi (O1w 9-6)    O1   Kaito (O1e 8-7)
Jakusotsu (O2e 8-7)        O2   Norizo (O2w 7-8)
Kobashi (K1e 12-3 Y)       S    Unkonoyama (Se 9-6)
joaoiyama (M1e 9-6)        K1   Kuroimori (M2w 9-6)
Flohru (M3e 9-6)           K2   ScreechingOwl (M8e 11-4)
Mariohana (M6w 10-5)       K3   -

Pandaazuma (K2e 7-8)       M1   Andrasoyama (M3w 8-7)
Athenayama (Sw 6-9)        M2   Gernobono (M7e 9-6)
GONZABUROW (M5e 8-7)       M3   Oortael (K1w 6-9)
Achiyama (M4e 7-8)         M4   Oskahanada (M4w 7-8)
Kitakachiyama (M1w 6-9)    M5   Choshu-yuki (M2e 6-9)
Kotononami (M8w 8-7)       M6   Bill (M5w 7-8)
Asapedroryu (M12w 9-6)     M7   Bunbukuchagama (J1w 12-3)
Kamibaka (M11e 8-7)        M8   chishafuwaku (M6e 6-9)
TochiYESshin (M15e 9-6)    M9   Ketsukai (M10e 7-8)
Asashosakari (M10w 7-8)    M10  Chocshoporyu (M14w 8-7)
Kishikaisei (M11w 7-8)     M11  Balon (M9e 6-9)
reeeen (J3e 11-4)          M12  BlackPinkMawashi (M16e 8-7)
Frinkanohana (M13e 7-8)    M13  Kasamatsuri (M13w 7-8)
Gansekiiwa (M7w 4-11)      M14  Andonishiki (J2w 10-5)
Susanoo (M9w 4-11)         M15  DeRosa (M16w 7-8)
Kajiyanosho (M17e 7-8)     M16  -

Andoreasu (M14e 6-9)       J1   Kaiowaka (M15w 6-9)
KonyaGaYamada (J9e 10-5)   J2   Hironoumi (M12e 3-12)
Metzinowaka (J5e 8-7)      J3   Kakushoyama (J10w 10-5)
Terarno (J6e 8-7)          J4   Hogashi (J1e 6-9)
Gusoyama (J3w 7-8)         J5   Kyodaitimu (J2e 6-9)
Joputosu (J9w 8-7)         J6   Papayasu (J4e 6-9)
Saruyama (J7e 7-8)         J7   Fujisan (J13w 9-6)
Warusaru (J4w 5-10)        J8   Sukubidubidu (J7w 6-9)
lonewolf (J14e 8-7)        J9   Kachikoshi (Ms1e 8-7)
Getayukata (J10e kosho)    J10  Rowitoro (J11e 7-8)
Hisui (J12e 7-8)           J11  Jejima (J8e 5-10)
Hakase (J8w 5-10)          J12  Takanorappa (Ms3w 8-7)
Kintamayama (J5w 3-12)     J13  Furanohana (Ms6w 9-6)
Doreikishi (J12w 6-9)      J14  Terukaze (Ms7w 9-6)

Nantonoyama (J11w 5-10)    Ms1  itchynotoe (Ms2w 7-8)
Profomisakari (J14w 6-9)   Ms2  Oyama (J6w 2-13)
Ruziklao (J13e 5-10)       Ms3  Tetsukabe (NR 8-7)
Anjoboshi (Ms1w 5-10)      Ms4  Beeftank (Ms2e 5-10)
WAKATAKE (Ms4w 6-9)        Ms5  Holleshoryu (Ms5e 6-9)
Netsuzakura (Ms6e kosho)   Ms6  Unagiyutaka (Ms3e 4-11)
ballerscuba (NR 6-9)       Ms7  Hakunojo (Ms4e 4-11)
aderechelseamaru (NR 4-11) Ms8  Multimikstar (NR 4-11)

Spoiler

Ganzohnesushi (O1w 10-5 -> 9-6)     O1   Kaito (O1e 9-6 -> 8-7)
Jakusotsu (O2e 9-6 -> 8-7)          O2   Norizo (O2w 8-7 -> 7-8)
Kobashi (K1e 14-1 Y -> 12-3)        S    Unkonoyama (Se 11-4 -> 9-6)
joaoiyama (M1e 11-4 -> 9-6)         K1   Kuroimori (M2w 11-4 -> 9-6)
Flohru (M3e 11-4 -> 9-6)            K2   ScreechingOwl (M8e 13-2 -> 11-4)
Mariohana (M6w 12-3 -> 10-5)        K3   -

Pandaazuma (K2e 9-6 -> 7-8)         M1   Andrasoyama (M3w 10-5 -> 8-7)
Athenayama (Sw 8-7 -> 6-9)          M2   Gernobono (M7e 11-3-1 -> 9-6)
GONZABUROW (M5e 10-5 -> 8-7)        M3   Oortael (K1w 8-7 -> 6-9)
Achiyama (M4e 9-6 -> 7-8)           M4   Oskahanada (M4w 9-6 -> 7-8)
Kitakachiyama (M1w 8-7 -> 6-9)      M5   Choshu-yuki (M2e 8-7 -> 6-9)
Kotononami (M8w 10-5 -> 8-7)        M6   Bill (M5w 9-6 -> 7-8)
Asapedroryu (M12w 11-4 -> 9-6)      M7   Bunbukuchagama (J1w 13-2 -> 12-3)
Kamibaka (M11e 10-5 -> 8-7)         M8   chishafuwaku (M6e 8-7 -> 6-9)
TochiYESshin (M15e 11-4 -> 9-6)     M9   Ketsukai (M10e 9-5-1 -> 7-8)
Asashosakari (M10w 9-6 -> 7-8)      M10  Chocshoporyu (M14w 10-5 -> 8-7)
Kishikaisei (M11w 9-6 -> 7-8)       M11  Balon (M9e 8-7 -> 6-9)
reeeen (J3e 12-3 -> 11-4)           M12  BlackPinkMawashi (M16e 10-5 -> 8-7)
Frinkanohana (M13e 9-6 -> 7-8)      M13  Kasamatsuri (M13w 9-6 -> 7-8)
Gansekiiwa (M7w 6-9 -> 4-11)        M14  Andonishiki (J2w 11-3-1 -> 10-5)
Susanoo (M9w 6-9 -> 4-11)           M15  DeRosa (M16w 9-6 -> 7-8)
Kajiyanosho (M17e 9-6 -> 7-8)       M16  -

Andoreasu (M14e 8-7 -> 6-9)         J1   Kaiowaka (M15w 8-7 -> 6-9)
KonyaGaYamada (J9e 11-4 -> 10-5)    J2   Hironoumi (M12e 5-8-2 -> 3-12)
Metzinowaka (J5e 9-6 -> 8-7)        J3   Kakushoyama (J10w 11-4 -> 10-5)
Terarno (J6e 9-4-2 -> 8-7)          J4   Hogashi (J1e 7-8 -> 6-9)
Gusoyama (J3w 8-6-1 -> 7-8)         J5   Kyodaitimu (J2e 7-8 -> 6-9)
Joputosu (J9w 9-6 -> 8-7)           J6   Papayasu (J4e 7-8 -> 6-9)
Saruyama (J7e 8-7 -> 7-8)           J7   Fujisan (J13w 10-2-3 -> 9-6)
Warusaru (J4w 6-9 -> 5-10)          J8   Sukubidubidu (J7w 7-7-1 -> 6-9)
lonewolf (J14e 9-6 -> 8-7)          J9   Kachikoshi (Ms1e 9-6 -> 8-7)
Getayukata (J10e kosho)             J10  Rowitoro (J11e 8-7 -> 7-8)
Hisui (J12e 8-7 -> 7-8)             J11  Jejima (J8e 6-9 -> 5-10)
Hakase (J8w 6-9 -> 5-10)            J12  Takanorappa (Ms3w 9-4-2 -> 8-7)
Kintamayama (J5w 4-11 -> 3-12)      J13  Furanohana (Ms6w 10-4-1 -> 9-6)
Doreikishi (J12w 7-8 -> 6-9)        J14  Terukaze (Ms7w 10-5 -> 9-6)

Nantonoyama (J11w 6-9 -> 5-10)      Ms1  itchynotoe (Ms2w 8-7 -> 7-8)
Profomisakari (J14w 7-8 -> 6-9)     Ms2  Oyama (J6w 3-12 -> 2-13)
Ruziklao (J13e 6-8-1 -> 5-10)       Ms3  Tetsukabe (NR 9-6 -> 8-7)
Anjoboshi (Ms1w 6-8-1 -> 5-10)      Ms4  Beeftank (Ms2e 6-9 -> 5-10)
WAKATAKE (Ms4w 7-6-2 -> 6-9)        Ms5  Holleshoryu (Ms5e 7-8 -> 6-9)
Netsuzakura (Ms6e kosho)            Ms6  Unagiyutaka (Ms3e 5-5-5 -> 4-11)
ballerscuba (NR 7-7-1 -> 6-9)       Ms7  Hakunojo (Ms4e 5-10 -> 4-11)
aderechelseamaru (NR 5-8-2 -> 4-11) Ms8  Multimikstar (NR 5-8-2 -> 4-11)

[Asashosakari 19,420]

Seki-Oracle (play):

Once again a small handful of Oracle players managed to put a large gap between themselves and the rest of the entrants. The tightly clustered field started at 564 points, but yusho winner Andoreasu (573), runner-up GONZABUROW (572) and Pandaazuma (568) outpaced them significantly. There were only slight differences in overall performance between the joi and the lower makuuchi, while the juryo section's average was far behind and its players benefited to the tune of three wins by getting their own separate score conversion.

Kyushu wasn't a great tournament for our highest-ranked players by any means, with makekoshi for both yokozuna and the sole ozeki. The only one who's not in immediate trouble now is yokozuna Kaito, for whom it was "only" the second MK in the last three honbasho. (The pressure is on now, though, as that affords him only one more bad performance in the next six months.) Oskanohana finished below the line for the second straight tournament and will lose his tsuna if he adds another makekoshi this month, while ozeki chishafuwaku is kadoban. We do have one high-ranker in good standing for Hatsu basho: Tournament champion Andoreasu was a freshly demoted ozeki himself and convincingly secured his return to the second-highest rank. Well done!

Two other sekiwake came very close to promotion, but ultimately I decided against it in both cases. Norizo and Choshu-yuki had started runs simultaneously by finishing first and second back in July, and as their Aki and Kyushu follow-ups were of decent-but-unspectacular quality, it left their total performances borderline in basically all respects - borderline starting ranks, borderline win totals, borderline tournament rank finishes. With no relevant pre-July results to lend further support to their cases, it was a very narrow thumbs down. Needless to say that they are both entering Hatsu basho with an excellent shot at earning the promotion on an extended run now.

The Kyushu banzuke featured a fourth sekiwake who will join Norizo and Choshu-yuki at the rank for Hatsu as well. Beeftank originally earned promotion to sekiwake with a third-place finish in March (which converted to 15-0, no less), and has since defended his position successfully four times. However, all four results fell quite a bit short of making an argument for promotion to ozeki, so with the strong Haru score moving further and further into the distance, there's unfortunately no real case left for now. Still, five times a sekiwake, that certainly doesn't happen often in Oracle.

The komusubi position was held by four players in Kyushu as well, but they'll largely be elsewhere in Hatsu. Balon earned a trip to sekiwake with the minimum acceptable promotion score of 9-6, while Kishikaisei stayed komusubi with an 8-7 and Flohru and Kitakachiyama were sent down to the maegashira ranks after makekoshi. They've been replaced by Kyushu third-place finisher Pandaazuma and ScreechingOwl (8-7 at M1w), keeping the size of sanyaku at 11 spots.

Don't look too closely at the rest of the banzuke, as things refused to fall into place on multiple fronts. M8 to M12 ended up as a major collision zone between a 7-8 group on the way down and a 9-6 group on the way up, and the less said about the high juryo ranks the better.

Kaito (Ye 7-8)             Y    Oskahanada (Yw 6-9)
chishafuwaku (Oe 7-8)      O    Andoreasu (S2w 15-0 Y)
Norizo (S1w 10-5)          S1   Choshu-yuki (S1e 9-6)
Beeftank (S2e 9-6)         S2   Balon (K2w 9-6)
Kishikaisei (K2e 8-7)      K1   Pandaazuma (M4w 12-3)
ScreechingOwl (M1w 8-7)    K2   -

TochiYESshin (M2w 8-7)     M1   Flohru (K1w 7-8)
Bunbukuchagama (M5w 9-6)   M2   DeRosa (M6w 9-6)
joaoiyama (M2e 7-8)        M3   Kitakachiyama (K1e 5-10)
Torafujii (M4e kosho)      M4   Oshirokita (M1e 6-9)
Pitinosato (M9w 9-6)       M5   Frinkanohana (M10w 9-6)
BlackPinkMawashi (M5e 7-8) M6   Asashosakari (M3e 6-9)
GONZABUROW (J1w 15-0)      M7   Gansekiiwa (M9e 8-7)
Hisui (M11w 9-6)           M8   Ganzohnesushi (M6e 7-8)
Kobashi (M12w 9-6)         M9   Bill (M3w 5-10)
Kakushoyama (M13e 9-6)     M10  Susanoo (M7e 7-8)
itchynotoe (M13w 9-6)      M11  Oortael (M7w 7-8)
Mariohana (M14e 9-6)       M12  Wamahada (M8e 7-8)
Yarimotsu (M8w 6-9)        M13  Profomisakari (M11e 7-8)
Andrasoyama (M10e 6-9)     M14  Asapedroryu (J3e 12-3)
Kirinoumi (J4e 12-3)       M15  Ruziklao (J2w 11-4)
Warusaru (J5w 12-3)        M16  -

Saruyama (J2e 9-6)         J1   Unkonoyama (J1e 8-7)
Sukubidubidu (M15e kosho)  J2   Papayasu (M12e 5-10)
Metzinowaka (J7e 10-5)     J3   Holleshoryu (J4w 8-7)
Shatsume (M15w 6-9)        J4   Athenayama (M16e 6-9)
Kaiowaka (J7w 9-6)         J5   Kotononami (M14w 5-10)
Kasamatsuri (J6w 8-7)      J6   Takanorappa (J6e kosho)
Joputosu (J5e 7-8)         J7   Kachikoshi (NR 11-4)
Terukaze (J10w 8-7)        J8   Doreikishi (J12e 8-7)
Kamibaka (J9e kosho)       J9   Hakase (J8w 7-8)
Hakunojo (J3w 4-11)        J10  Andonishiki (J10e 7-8)
Gusoyama (J8e 6-9)         J11  Fujisan (J11w 7-8)
lonewolf (J9w 6-9)         J12  Anjoboshi (J12w 6-9)
Terarno (J11e 5-10)        J13  ballerscuba (NR 7-8)
reeeen (J13e 5-10)         J14  Multimikstar (NR 6-9)

WAKATAKE (J14e 4-11)       Ms1  Daiouika (J13w 0-0-15)

[Kachikoshi 35]

Thanks so much for all the effort you put into making these banzuke and especially for explaining your thought process. I'm trying to reverse engineer your system, and it's obvious you give some bonus to kachikoshi over and above what the simple numbers are, but I'm struggling to figure out exactly what that bonus is. For example, why did you rank Andrasoyama (Ms8e 12-3) ahead of WAKATAKE (J5e 6-8-1) in Toto?

[Asashosakari 19,420]

On 23/01/2025 at 20:52, Kachikoshi said:

Thanks so much for all the effort you put into making these banzuke and especially for explaining your thought process. I'm trying to reverse engineer your system, and it's obvious you give some bonus to kachikoshi over and above what the simple numbers are, but I'm struggling to figure out exactly what that bonus is. For example, why did you rank Andrasoyama (Ms8e 12-3) ahead of WAKATAKE (J5e 6-8-1) in Toto?

I generally aim for common-sense placement in juryo and below which - when it effects changes - tends to mean that the handful of KK players in that area will be overpromoted on top of what the straight formula says. I'm guessing the formula itself is relatively obvious, 2 ranks per win but with crossing the KK/MK line counted as an extra win. (I'll mention for completeness that the formula also includes a one-rank = half-win parachute for players demoted from sanyaku to maegashira or from makuuchi to juryo.)

Frinkanohana (J7w 10-5)       J1   Holleshoryu (M15w 7-8 -> 6-9)
Biloumaru (J7e 9-6)           J2   Anjoboshi (J8e 9-5-1)
Saruyama (J10w 10-5)          J3   Papayasu (J3e 7-8)
Kachikoshi (Ms4e 12-3 D)      J4   Oyama (J11e 9-6)
Ulishimaru (J4w 7-7-1)        J5   Hana-ichi (J1e 5-10)
Terarno (M15e 4-8-3 -> 3-12)  J6   Bunbukuchagama (J5w 7-8)
Ahokaina (J1w 5-9-1)          J7   Gaanaag (M14e 3-12 -> 2-13)
Takanorappa (Ms4w 11-3-1)     J8   Andrasoyama (Ms8e 12-3 Y)
WAKATAKE (J5e 6-8-1)          J9   Gawasukotto (J6e 6-9)
Choshu-yuki (J9e 7-8)         J10  Kishikaisei (J3w 4-9-2)
FujiSlava (Ms3w 8-7)          J11  Achiyama (J11w 7-8)
Gusoyama (J12e 7-6-2)         J12  Chudorj (J8w 5-9-1)
Mariohana (J6w 4-11)          J13  Beeftank (J9w 5-10)
Ketsukai (J14e 7-7-1)         J14  Joputosu (J13w 6-9)

In this case I also effectively counted an extra win for you, Takanorappa and Andrasoyama for those exceptionally good scores of yours. In addition I disliked the flow of how the 7-8 scores originally ended up, with Ulishimaru getting no demotion in the middle of several other 7-8's who did (-> Oyama bumped up one spot), and Achiyama and Gusoyama set to earn a promotion even though there was another 7-8 after them who did not (-> FujiSlava bumped up in front of the whole MK block, by formula they would have been only J13e). And you're right, Andrasoyama should have been between WAKATAKE and Gawasukotto by formula, but I felt that this short-changed the yusho winner too much relative to where you and Takanorappa ended up, so he went to J8w rather than J9e.

The default ranking without any added discretion would have looked like this:

Frinkanohana (J7w 10-5)       J1   Holleshoryu (M15w 7-8 -> 6-9)
Biloumaru (J7e 9-6)           J2   Anjoboshi (J8e 9-5-1)
Saruyama (J10w 10-5)          J3   Papayasu (J3e 7-8)
Ulishimaru (J4w 7-7-1)        J4   Oyama (J11e 9-6)
Hana-ichi (J1e 5-10)          J5   Terarno (M15e 4-8-3 -> 3-12)
Bunbukuchagama (J5w 7-8)      J6   Ahokaina (J1w 5-9-1)
Kachikoshi (Ms4e 12-3 D)      J7   Gaanaag (M14e 3-12 -> 2-13)
WAKATAKE (J5e 6-8-1)          J8   Gawasukotto (J6e 6-9)
Takanorappa (Ms4w 11-3-1)     J9   Choshu-yuki (J9e 7-8)
Kishikaisei (J3w 4-9-2)       J10  Andrasoyama (Ms8e 12-3 Y)
Achiyama (J11w 7-8)           J11  Gusoyama (J12e 7-6-2)
Chudorj (J8w 5-9-1)           J12  Mariohana (J6w 4-11)
FujiSlava (Ms3w 8-7)          J13  Beeftank (J9w 5-10)
Ketsukai (J14e 7-7-1)         J14  Joputosu (J13w 6-9)

[Asashosakari 19,420]

While I'm in the thread... It has occurred to me recently that I didn't properly consider the role of the 10-win repromotion opportunity in revising the ozeki demotion rules last year. Therefore the following small rule change will be adopted effective immediately:

On 11/03/2024 at 21:27, Asashosakari said:

Makekoshi = full demerit, 8-7 = half demerit, collecting two demerits in any form (including four straight 8-7's) = demotion.

If you have demerits tallied, any record of 9-6 or better will eliminate one point; if you were at 1.5, you'll still have 0.5 to clean up afterwards. In other words: 8-7, MK, 12-3, MK, 8-7 = demotion. That's four below-average records in five, so I consider it reasonable. For the avoidance of doubt, if you manage to get demoted with the maximum possible 2.5 demerits (as opposed to a "normal" 2-point demotion) and you come back up immediately, you'll start your new ozeki stint with 0.5, too.

Additional rule change Hatsu 2025: A demoted ozeki who returns to the rank immediately will retain 0.5 demerits for his new stint if the return was earned with a 10-5 score. 11-4 and better will result in a completely clean slate. This starting point determination is made independent of any possible "excess" 0.5 demerits from the demotion itself (as described in the preceding paragraph), which will be added on top if applicable.

I'm not going to push the repromotion requirement to 11-4 outright as 10-5 is plenty hard enough, but if 8-7 while ozeki is no longer a completely acceptable result, the minimum repromotion score also deserves a small penalty.

As it happens, the delayed introduction of this modification has had no practical effects thus far; two ozeki were demoted in 2024, but one of them failed to be repromoted and the other went 11-4.

Edited January 25 by Asashosakari

[Oskanohana 261]

On 12/01/2025 at 16:14, Asashosakari said:

Seki-Oracle (play):

Kyushu wasn't a great tournament for our highest-ranked players by any means, with makekoshi for both yokozuna and the sole ozeki. The only one who's not in immediate trouble now is yokozuna Kaito, for whom it was "only" the second MK in the last three honbasho. (The pressure is on now, though, as that affords him only one more bad performance in the next six months.) Oskanohana finished below the line for the second straight tournament and will lose his tsuna if he adds another makekoshi this month, while ozeki chishafuwaku is kadoban. We do have one high-ranker in good standing for Hatsu basho: Tournament champion Andoreasu was a freshly demoted ozeki himself and convincingly secured his return to the second-highest rank. Well done!

I have to pay my dues for being an idiot, taking a gamble and not putting Terunofuji's score in the appropriate range, thus losing the rope by one miserable point.

On the bright side, I'm allowed to fight for sanshos again, yay. I leave you in the capable hands of my fellow yokozuna @Kaito

It's been a pleasure serving as the Oracle's 9th Yokozuna. I will gambarize and aim for a return to the rank as soon as possible.