Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2025

[Reonito 1,449]

It's too early to talk about the yusho race, with more than a third of Makuuchi still in it.

Yokozuna runs: Kotozakura's is over, Hoshoryu needs to take the yusho and in all likelihood win out.

Ozeki runs: the only rikishi who could conceivably have been said to be on one going into Hatsu was Wakamotoharu, and that's over. Abi (11-4 at M3e in Kyushu) could conceivably start one with a sufficiently strong performance here.

Sanyaku exchanges: S1e Wakamotoharu (1-7) can't afford any more losses, while little bro WTK (K1w, 3-5) needs to go 5-2 or better from here. Two exchanges seem likely. At the moment, Kirishima would return to the named ranks and Oho would make his debut, but obviously it's still a long way to go.

Division exchanges: one bonus spot in both Makuuchi and Juryo is opened by Terunofuji's retirement. Absent Hokutofuji and Roga should vacate two more slots in the top division. Of those still fighting, Kotoshoho is in deepest trouble, and several others need more wins than losses in the second week to reach mathematical safety. At the moments, the leading beneficiaries of the vacancies look to be Asakoryu, Shishi, Ryuden, and Aonishiki, with the J1 duo of Sadanoumi and Kayo still very much in the promotion chase.

Absent Bushozan should create a second opening in Juryo, and Daishoho will create a third unless he wins out. Of the nine active rikishi in the Makushita promotion zone, all but overmatched Kyushu champion Osanai can still nurse promotion hopes. In the undefeated bracket, tomorrow's bout between 8w Ishizaki and 15w Kaisho will determine which of them stays in the promotion hunt.

Edited January 20 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,449]

P.S. If Kitanowaka has to go kyujo for the duration, as seems highly likely, that's a minimum of four openings in Makuuchi.

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

To put it another way... Maku'uchi wins away from safety:

1 win: Mitakeumi, Hakuoho, Churanoumi

2 wins: Shonannoumi, Meisei

3 wins: Midorifuji

4 wins: Kotoshoho, Tamashoho, Kagayaki, Nishikifuji

Already gone: Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, Kitanowaka

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

Juryo wins away from promotion:

2 wins: Ryuden, Shishi, Aonishiki

3 wins: Sadanoumi, Asakoryu

4 wins: Kayo, Tochitaikai, Shirokuma

5 wins: none

6 wins: Hidenoumi, Oshoumi, Wakaikari

Already up: none

[Reonito 1,449]

Makushita promotion race update, Day 9

Daishoho's loss today should guarantee at least three openings in Juryo. All the contenders were in action in Makushita, and the results left the promotion picture about as messy as possible. 8w Ishizaki defeated Kaisho to extend his record to 5-0 and remain in the running. Next up should be former sekitori 38w Tsushimanada. The only other undefeated Makushita man is 44e Mudoho, who should get Sd1w Aron.

In the promotion zone, everyone except Osanai is still alive, and nobody has clinched a spot. The only two KK belong to 4w Hitoshi and 5w Otsuji, who'll need more than 4 wins to get promoted, unless there's no alternative. In the 3-2 group, 1e Wakanosho and 2e Kotokuzan should go up with one more win, while 3w Kusano and 4e Miyagi probably need two more. 1w Kazekeno (2-3) is in with two more wins but out with another loss, while 2w Akua (2-3) must win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Potential for some very lucky survival acts in the maegashira ranks. Somebody like Midorifuji might stay with just a 3-12, normally a slam dunk demotion...would be broadly equivalent to Nishikifuji's outrageous 6-9 adventure after Nagoya (6 ranks up, 3 wins worse), but with no less than four spots being made available by absent/retired rikishi, it's very conceivable.

Edited January 20 by Asashosakari

[Koorifuu 990]

Watch Shimanoumi win against Tsurugisho, Daiamami and Daishoho, then slot himself at J9 or something for Haru.

[Oskanohana 261]

58 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Watch Shimanoumi win against Tsurugisho, Daiamami and Daishoho, then slot himself at J9 or something for Haru.

Oh, I was wishing some days ago for a Shimanoumi late surge and an 8-7 makuuchi promotion from J5, but that hope is long gone.

 

If Ishizaki is the only 6-0 after the next round in makushita there might not be a high-ranked 5-1 available for him. He's already faced Otsuji, Takakento and Kaisho. If Hitoshi loses tomorrow in juryo against Tohakuryu (god knows what can happen there, for sure it's not gonna be pretty, I'm hoping for a double henka), next best option is tomorrow's winner of Hokutomaru-Kiokukaiyu (and he'd have to win his next bout also). Maybe they go old school anyway and pair him against a 4-2 or 3-3 opponent vying for promotion?

Edited January 20 by Oskanohana

[Reonito 1,449]

28 minutes ago, Oskanohana said:

Oh, I was wishing some days ago for a Shimanoumi late surge and an 8-7 makuuchi promotion from J5, but that hope is long gone.

 

If Ishizaki is the only 6-0 after the next round in makushita there might not be a high-ranked 5-1 available for him. He's already faced Otsuji, Takakento and Kaisho. If Hitoshi loses tomorrow in juryo against Tohakuryu (god knows what can happen there, for sure it's not gonna be pretty, I'm hoping for a double henka), next best option is tomorrow's winner of Hokutomaru-Kiokukaiyu (and he'd have to win his next bout also). Maybe they go old school anyway and pair him against a 4-2 or 3-3 opponent vying for promotion?

Or even a Juryo opponent?

[Oskanohana 261]

I was about to say you're crazy, but it's not that uncommon, totally forgot about these somewhat recent ones

Query

Basho	Day	Rikishi 1				Kimarite		Rikishi 2
		Rank	Shikona	Result				Rank	Shikona	Result
1997.03	13	Ms8e	Kogawa	6-1		tsuridashi		J12w	Kyokutenho	7-6 (8-7)
1998.09	13	Ms6w	Takeuchi	7-0		yoritaoshi		J13w	Gokenzan	5-8 (6-9)
2009.09	13	Ms10e	Gagamaru	7-0		hikiotoshi		J12e	Hoshikaze	5-8 (7-8)
2013.05	13	Ms7e	Osunaarashi	7-0		yorikiri		J13e	Akiseyama	5-8 (7-8)
2016.01	12	Ms6w	Tochihiryu	6-1		tsukitaoshi		J14w	Dewahayate	6-6 (8-7)

I only posted here the latest ones, the query has all the makushita-7-bout-era. Nice one to start the trend, Wakanosato vs Kyokutenho, those were the times.

 

Oh, and with Terunofuji's retirement, if there is no lower sanyaku multiplication (not really on the cards now), the M18e slot will appear on the banzuke again. Not a bad list of fellas this one.

M18e

Rikishi	1			2    >
	Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record
Kotonowaka	2020.03	M18e	9-6	2020.07	M13w	4-6-5
Oho	2022.01	M18e	7-8	2022.03	J1e	10-5

With a little help from the first guy on this list, we can even get to M18w in a couple of bashos.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Lower division yusho races (Day 9 results, videos)

5-0 Ms8w Ishizaki (Takasago)
4-1 Ms15w Kaisho (Asakayama)
4-1 Ms18e Asakoki (Takasago)
4-1 Ms27e Fukai (Takasago)
5-0 Ms38w Tsushimanada (Sakaigawa)
5-0 Ms44e Mudoho (Otake)
4-1 Ms54w Sazanami (Isenoumi)

5-0 Sd1w Aron (Nakamura)
5-0 Sd8w Noda (Fujishima)
4-1 Sd25e Kirinryu (Nishonoseki)
5-0 Sd32e Daimasakari (Oitekaze)
5-0 Sd35w Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Sd36w Daikosho (Oitekaze)
4-1 Sd53e Daishinkai (Otake)
4-1 Sd60e Goseizan (Takekuma)
4-1 Sd70w Takashoki (Tokiwayama)
5-0 Sd80TD Ikarigata (Isenoumi)

4-1 Jd5e Wakaterumoto (Shikoroyama)
4-1 Jd15w Gonoumi (Takekuma)
5-0 Jd19w Yago (Oshiogawa)
4-1 Jd31w Akatora (Shikihide)
5-0 Jd37w Raiho (Isegahama)
5-0 Jd47e Hokutoyoshi (Hakkaku)
4-1 Jd56e Asasorai (Takasago)
5-0 Jd60w Sekimoto (Onomatsu)
4-1 Jd71e Ojiyama (Tagonoura)
4-1 Jd84e Wakahizen (Shibatayama)
5-0 Jd89w Ai (Takadagawa)
4-1 Jd97e Fujinoteru (Onoe)

5-0 Jk4w Daikisho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Jk13w Gonosho (Takekuma)

Bottom-ranked Gonosho doing the expected thing and beating two 1-win opponents has whittled down the field from 61 3-0's to a convenient 16 5-0's, but it's far from a straight-forward bracket. We should hardly expect 6 undefeated rikishi in the sandanme division now that it's down to just 80 ranks, but Aron (never KK'd above his current rank) took out an opponent from makushita and newcomer Ikarigata did the same somewhat less surprisingly with his jonidan aite.

On top of that we've got the Oitekaze trio in the middle who collectively forced their way into getting lower-than-usual opponents and took full advantage of that, so we've got the amusing situation that there are 5 zensho rikishi in the sandanme upper half and only one in the lower (and he's technically not even ranked).

I'm a bit puzzled how they're going to proceed for round 6 now. The straight schedule would be this (Oitekaze guys in bold since they're the problem here):

Ms38w Tsushimanada - Ms8w Ishizaki
Ms44e Mudoho - Sd1w Aron
Sd32e Daimasakari - Sd8w Noda
Sd80TD Ikarigata - Sd35w Daiyusho
Jd19w Yago - Sd36w Daikosho
Jd47e Hokutoyoshi - Jd37w Raiho
Jd89w Ai - Jd60w Sekimoto
Jk13w Gonosho - Jk4w Daikisho

I cannot see for my life that they'll actually make that Yago-Daikosho matchup; that's a 63 rank distance which pushes the limits of what they're even willing to do in 6-0 pairings, let alone in a 5-0 like here. Possible solutions:

1. Mudoho gets a 4-1 opponent, Aron gets shuffled into the sandanme part of the schedule where we'll get Oitekaze vs not-Oitekaze x3, Jd/Jk get adjusted.
   1. (b) Ishizaki gets a 4-1 opponent, Tsushimanada and Mudoho face off, rest as above.
2. Lowest-ranked Oitekaze rikishi Daikosho gets a 4-1 opponent, the other Ms and Sd matches stay as-is, Jd/Jk get adjusted.
3. Both Daiyusho and Daikosho get 4-1 opponents, Ikarigata goes against Yago.

And maybe other options yet that I can't think of right now. The first two options would obviously also require a second 1-loss opponent getting inserted into the bracket somewhere, presumably with Gonosho being lucky again.

In any case, depending on how this shakes out we might get a real surprise winner in jonidan. Obviously Yago and Raiho are the runaway favourites considering the other three unbeaten jonidan rikishi have never been above lowest sandanme, but there's a real chance that either a) both could get eliminated by Ikarigata, or b) one of them gets eliminated head-to-head and then Ikarigata ousts the other.

Makushita is almost as confusing (as Oskanohana touched on above) though I'm hopeful that Mudoho can take care of business against Aron - if that match actually takes place (see sandanme scenario 1).

Edited January 20 by Asashosakari

[Sakura 1,489]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

 

1. Mudoho gets a 4-1 opponent, Aron gets shuffled into the sandanme part of the schedule where we'll get Oitekaze vs not-Oitekaze x3, Jd/Jk get adjusted.
   1. (b) Ishizaki gets a 4-1 opponent, Tsushimanada and Mudoho face off, rest as above.

My first thought on seeing the list of undefeated rikishi was 1b), but 1a I think is more likely. As you say, however, there are other solutions and it'll be interesting to see how they go.

[Oskanohana 261]

Yeah, that Jd19w Yago - Sd36w Daikosho looks ugly.

Probably my preferred torikumi solution would be to do Tsushimanada - Mudoho and get Ishizaki a 4-1 guy on the promotion zone, but there are none for him as I said before, only Hokutomaru from Ms13 (extended promotion zone at least) and that's only if he wins tomorrow. Getting him a Ms16+ rival with 1 loss would not be to my liking.

If you free Aron that way, the Sandanme conundrum gets somewhat solved. It'd be really funny to get the Oitekaze boys on a 3-way play-off in the end. No, even funnier, they all win their 6th bout, then lose their 7th and we get a 16-or-so men playoff for the first 6-1 sandanme yusho in history (those on the 70's don't count because Sandanme was only 80 ranks back then....oh wait...)

I'd also like if possible to reserve the Daikisho-Gonosho pair for a jonokuchi yusho decider on day 13, but that would be not blind torikumi making, as it probably should be.

And talking about delaying pairs, if they delay Shishi-Aonishiki and it's a juryo yusho decider for senshuraku maybe they can even make an event out of it in the broadcast with flags and all that nonsense, but they're probably too chauvinistic to do that. Besides, they should keep their focus on the Chiyoshoma hatsu-yusho festivities.

[Bunbukuchagama 717]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Mudoho gets a 4-1 opponent

 

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Ishizaki gets a 4-1 opponent,

This would create the possibility of a huge playoff event.

[Reonito 1,449]

48 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

 

This would create the possibility of a huge playoff event.

That possibility is there even if they match the 5-0's in rank order if Mudoho loses to Aron...

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 10:

1 win: Ryuden, Shishi, Aonishiki

2 wins: none

3 wins: Sadanoumi, Kayo, Asakoryu

4 wins: Shirokuma, Tochitaikai

5 wins: Wakaikari

Already up: none

[Asashosakari 19,309]

19 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

5-0 Ms8w Ishizaki (Takasago)
5-0 Ms38w Tsushimanada (Sakaigawa)
5-0 Ms44e Mudoho (Otake)

5-0 Sd1w Aron (Nakamura)
5-0 Sd8w Noda (Fujishima)
5-0 Sd32e Daimasakari (Oitekaze)
5-0 Sd35w Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Sd36w Daikosho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Sd80TD Ikarigata (Isenoumi)

5-0 Jd19w Yago (Oshiogawa)
5-0 Jd37w Raiho (Isegahama)
5-0 Jd47e Hokutoyoshi (Hakkaku)
5-0 Jd60w Sekimoto (Onomatsu)
5-0 Jd89w Ai (Takadagawa)

5-0 Jk4w Daikisho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Jk13w Gonosho (Takekuma)

(...) I'm a bit puzzled how they're going to proceed for round 6 now. The straight schedule would be this (Oitekaze guys in bold since they're the problem here):

Ms38w Tsushimanada - Ms8w Ishizaki
Ms44e Mudoho - Sd1w Aron
Sd32e Daimasakari - Sd8w Noda
Sd80TD Ikarigata - Sd35w Daiyusho
Jd19w Yago - Sd36w Daikosho
Jd47e Hokutoyoshi - Jd37w Raiho
Jd89w Ai - Jd60w Sekimoto
Jk13w Gonosho - Jk4w Daikisho

I cannot see for my life that they'll actually make that Yago-Daikosho matchup; that's a 63 rank distance which pushes the limits of what they're even willing to do in 6-0 pairings, let alone in a 5-0 like here. Possible solutions:

1. Mudoho gets a 4-1 opponent, Aron gets shuffled into the sandanme part of the schedule where we'll get Oitekaze vs not-Oitekaze x3, Jd/Jk get adjusted.
   1. (b) Ishizaki gets a 4-1 opponent, Tsushimanada and Mudoho face off, rest as above.
2. Lowest-ranked Oitekaze rikishi Daikosho gets a 4-1 opponent, the other Ms and Sd matches stay as-is, Jd/Jk get adjusted.
3. Both Daiyusho and Daikosho get 4-1 opponents, Ikarigata goes against Yago.

And maybe other options yet that I can't think of right now. The first two options would obviously also require a second 1-loss opponent getting inserted into the bracket somewhere, presumably with Gonosho being lucky again.

They've gone with a variation on suggestion 2, putting the middle Oitekaze rikishi against a 4-1 opponent and the lowest one against Ikarigata. I suppose that makes sense from the "matching the nearest opponents available" angle.

Ms38w Tsushimanada - Ms8w Ishizaki
Ms44e Mudoho - Sd1w Aron
Sd32e Daimasakari - Sd8w Noda
Sd35w Daiyusho - Sd15w Yamato (4-1)
Sd80TD Ikarigata - Sd36w Daikosho
Jd37w Raiho - Jd19w Yago
Jd47e Hokutoyoshi - Jd60w Sekimoto
Jd71e Ojiyama (4-1) - Jd89w Ai
Jk13w Gonosho - Jk4w Daikisho

No free pass to 6-0 for Gonosho after all, he'll certainly be the underdog against mid-makushita experienced Daikisho.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

13 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Wow, some aggressive match-making for Day 11. Every non-joi rikishi that's 6-3 or better has been shuffled up.

M12w Onokatsu (6-3) - M3w Oho (7-2)
M2e Tobizaru (5-4) - M15e Hakuoho (6-3)
M10e Tamawashi (6-3) - M1w Kirishima (6-3)
K1e Abi (5-4) - M6w Ichiyamamoto (6-3)
M11w Takerufuji (7-2) - S1w Daieisho (6-3)
S1e Wakamotoharu (2-7) - M6e Takayasu (6-3)
M14w Kinbozan (9-0) - O2w Onosato (6-3)
M5w Chiyoshoma (8-1) - O1w Hoshoryu (6-3)

Big carnage among the lower-rankers on Day 10 ahead of all these Day 11 pairings; of the 8 contenders ranked lower than M3, only Takerufuji won today (head to head against IYM, so somebody had to win). Of the five high-rankers, only Daieisho lost (again, head to head with another contender in Hoshoryu). We've gone from 13 rikishi with at most 3 losses to just 7 now. That went from high to low.

Edited January 21 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,309]

BTW, is it just me or does it look as though the likelihood of an 11-4 yusho line is actually rather high now? To get at least one 12-3 record:

• Kinbozan needs to go 3-2 or better
• Oho, Chiyoshoma or Takerufuji need to go 4-1 or better
• Hoshoryu, Onosato or Kirishima need to go 5-0

It doesn't feel inconceivable that all seven might fail their respective targets.

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

Maku'uchi wins away from safety after day 10:

1 win: Mitakeumi, Meisei, Shonannoumi, Hakuoho

2 wins: Midorifuji

3 wins: Nishikifuji, Tokihayate

4 wins: Kotoshoho, Tamashoho, Kagayaki,

Already gone: Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, Kitanowaka

And yes, I think that falling one win short is probably going to be safe this time around...

[Gurowake 4,050]

27 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

BTW, is it just me or does it look as though the likelihood of an 11-4 yusho line is actually rather high now? To get at least one 12-3 record:

• Kinbozan needs to go 3-2 or better
• Oho, Chiyoshoma or Takerufuji need to go 4-1 or better
• Hoshoryu, Onosato or Kirishima need to go 5-0

It doesn't feel inconceivable that all seven might fail their respective targets.

If we assume 50% win rates and all matches being independent of each other (both of which are clearly false, but at least can be used as a starting place), I'm getting a ~24.3% of none of them happening.  Given that the win rates for 3 of the 4 more likely occurrences are probably actually lower than 50% given they'll likely face higher ranked opponents, it's likely quite a bit higher than that.

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 11:

Already achieved: Ryuden, Shishi, Aonishiki

1 win: none

2 wins: Sadanoumi

3 wins: Kayo, Asakoryu, Shirokuma, Tochitaikai

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

Maku'uchi wins away from safety after day 11:

1 win: Mitakeumi, Midorifuji

2 wins: Nishikifuji

3 wins: Tamashoho, Tokihayate

4 wins: Kotoshoho, Kagayaki,

Already gone: Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, Kitanowaka

[Koorifuu 990]

Well well well, I'm sure Asashosakari will post this in more detail, but the Oitekaze gang vastly impressed me. I had Noda and Ikarigata as favourites, but the Dai boys whooped them a new one. Poor Daiyusho ate a massive henka instead of joining them, though.

[Reonito 1,449]

Day 11 Juryo openings queue: Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi (4), Daiamami (3), Shimanoumi (3), Hatsuyama (3), Daiseizan (2), Kiryuko (2), Hakuyozan (1). Bold = definite, otherwise wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses; one less may well be enough.

Day 11 Makushita promotion queue: 1e Wakanosho (4-2), 8w Ishizaki (6-0), 4w Hitoshi (5-1), 1w Kazekeno (3-3), 3w Kusano (4-2), 2e Kotokuzan (3-3), 3w Otsuji (4-2), 4e Miyagi (3-3). Top-ranked Wakanosho ensured a sekitori debut by beating Miyagi. Everything else is still up for grabs. The order given is roughly what I'd expect if everyone won. The ones in italics must win to have a shot. Kazekeno is up in Juryo tomorrow taking on Kiryuko. Ishizaki must beat Mudoho on Day 13 to claim both the yusho and automatic promotion.