Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2025

[Koorifuu 991]

25 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Shimanoumi [is] almost certainly safe already.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Yeah, everything played for Hitoshi today with Kotokuzan, Kusano and Ishizaki all faltering. Congrats!

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Day 13 Juryo openings queue: Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan (...)

Day 13 Makushita promotion queue: 1e Wakanosho (4-2), 1w Kazekeno (4-3), 4w Hitoshi (5-1) (...)

According to Asashosakari's approach (...)

Strict rules lend themselves to tabulated form, so I'll try something:

                       max   min    can be passed by
Shimanoumi  J5e  2-11  safe  Ms2e   none
Daiseizan   J9e  4-9   safe  Ms2e   none
Shimazuumi  J10e 3-10  Ms1e  Ms5e   5-10(WW): none / 4-11(WL): Kusano, Miyagi(W), Otsuji(W) / 3-12(LL): Otsuji(L)
Daiamami    J11e 4-9   safe  Ms4e   5-10(WL): none / 4-11(LL): Kusano, Miyagi(W), Otsuji(W)
Hatsuyama   J12e 5-8   safe  Ms3e   6-9(WL):  none / 5-10(LL): Kusano, Miyagi(W), Otsuji(W)
Kiryuko     J12w 5-8   safe  Ms3w   6-9(WL):  none / 5-10(LL): Kusano, Miyagi(W), Otsuji(W)

Kusano      Ms3w 4-3   Ms2w  Ms2w
Miyagi      Ms4e 3-3   Ms3e  MK
Otsuji      Ms5w 4-2   Ms2w  Ms4w

If the strict numbers framework is correct, all three makushita hopefuls need help by other rikishi indeed. Miyagi has the additional problem that he can only finish 5th in the queue at best.

Edited January 24 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,449]

44 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Miyagi has the additional problem that he can only finish 5th in the queue at best.

I guess Otsuji with a win would be ahead of Kusano, with more wins being the tiebreaker...

[Asashosakari 19,309]

7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I guess Otsuji with a win would be ahead of Kusano, with more wins being the tiebreaker...

Yeah, until evidence to the contrary I'm going to assume that any tie goes to the rikishi with the better win total in this apparent framework. (We've arguably even seen it in a J/J comparison, Chiyomaru vs Chiyosakae where we were all pretty surprised by the decision.)

Edited January 24 by Asashosakari

[Kachikoshi 30]

Has anyone looked at rikishi below Ms5 and how it works with Asashoskari’s theory? I wonder if what we thought was an “invisible line” is actually just a reality that it’s almost impossible to get promoted to Juryo if you’re  Ms6+, fight seven matches, lost at least one (or else you’d be automatically promoted, and only get credit for one rank per win.

Because if there is no invisible line then Ishizaki calculates to Ms3w which, with a lot of luck, could be enough to get promoted.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

41 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

Has anyone looked at rikishi below Ms5 and how it works with Asashoskari’s theory? I wonder if what we thought was an “invisible line” is actually just a reality that it’s almost impossible to get promoted to Juryo if you’re  Ms6+, fight seven matches, lost at least one (or else you’d be automatically promoted, and only get credit for one rank per win.

Because if there is no invisible line then Ishizaki calculates to Ms3w which, with a lot of luck, could be enough to get promoted.

Data only available as mentioned at the time:

On 28/11/2024 at 17:45, Asashosakari said:

Additional premises/assumptions: (...)

(2) Makushita rikishi who are ranked below Ms5 absolutely will not be promoted even if a juryo rikishi is sufficiently close to lose the comparison. Has happened a bunch of times after 2018.01, but in all cases their hypothetical promotion would have required passing over a top 5 KK, so these are probably irrelevant. Would be interesting to know what would happen now if such a Ms6+ was properly the next candidate in line.

Can't happen anymore this basho, as we'd need: Miyagi MK so that Ishizaki is #6 in the queue, and Shimazuumi/Daiamami/Kiryuko to lose all remaining matches. One of Miyagi and Daiamami will win tomorrow, however.

Cases of Ms6+ rikishi not getting promoted even though they calculated higher than a top 5 rikishi who did get promoted are numerous (most recently after 2023.11, Kayo vs Tochimusashi), so at least for that purpose the line almost certainly exists.

Edit: Re-reading the old post, it may not be clear what I meant by "would have required passing over a top 5 KK". That refers to something that's also in 2023.11 (and others):

J10w Tenshoho 5-10 (-> Ms1w) not demoted
Ms6w Kayo 6-1 (-> Ms1w)
Ms4w Tsushimanada 4-3 (-> Ms3w)

Kayo's result was numerically strong enough to force down Tenshoho, but it didn't happen, and my contention is that it's because they would have needed to jump Kayo over Tsushimanada (who himself didn't have a result to force down Tenshoho) in priority.

Even stronger in 2023.03:

J9e Tsushimanada 4-11 (-> Ms2e) not demoted
J11e Shimanoumi 5-10 (-> Ms2e) not demoted
Ms6e Shiden 6-1 (-> Ms1e)
Ms3w Kawazoe 4-3 (-> Ms2w)

Edited January 24 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Oof. The only truly sensible J vs Ms pairing for senshuraku would be Daiamami-Otsuji after today's results, but that one (of all the possibilities!) already happened on Day 11. If they could make that match, it would be too little too late for Miyagi despite today's KK...the winner of Daiamami-Otsuji + Kusano would be headed to juryo. Now he's got a shot if both guys lose. Conversely, it looks like Kusano could still miss out if both win.

Shimazuumi should be toast now, Hatsuyama and Kiryuko are in all likelihood safe.

[Hakuryuho 335]

Not sure if this is the right thread, but is there a possibility the YDC/NSK might extend Hoshoryu's tsuna run to March if he follows up his 13-2 JY with another 12-3 JY this honbasho?

[Kishinoyama 593]

Just now, Hakuryuho said:

Not sure if this is the right thread, but is there a possibility the YDC/NSK might extend Hoshoryu's tsuna run to March if he follows up his 13-2 JY with another 12-3 JY this honbasho?

I think that YDC/NSK would extend the tsuna run but he would have to win the next tournament to get promoted. 

[Koorifuu 991]

Yeah, I agree he'd likely maintain the status quo for Haru.

[BroadMeadow 43]

2 hours ago, Hakuryuho said:

Not sure if this is the right thread, but is there a possibility the YDC/NSK might extend Hoshoryu's tsuna run to March if he follows up his 13-2 JY with another 12-3 JY this honbasho?

Or Hosh wins a 3-way playoff and the YDC says, "He techically got 14 wins so..."

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

My brain hurts, but I think this is correct.

The following will be promoted from juryo: Shishi, Ryuden, Aonishiki, Sadanoumi AND Asakoryu (even though his record isn't an automatic promotion)
Kayo gets promoted if he wins. Shirokuma might get promoted if he wins or even if he loses, but see below...

The following will be demoted from maku'uchi: Kitanowaka, Roga and Hokutofuji. And Terunofuji has retired.
Mitakeumi is safe even though a loss would give him a theoretically demotable record.

Then we have a grey area which envelops Kotoshoho, Tokihayate, Tamashoho and Kagayaki who are all demotable but might survive depending on how they fare tomorrow and what happens to Kayo and Shirokuma. We also have to factor in the slight privilege given to maku'uchi wrestlers: half a rank? full rank? Who knows.

I give up!

 

 

[Reonito 1,449]

Openings in Makuuchi: Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, Kitanowaka, Kagayaki, Tamashoho, Tokihayate, Kotoshoho, Mitakeumi.

Promotions from Juryo: Shishi, Ryuden, Aonishiki, Sadanoumi, Asakoryu, Kayo (W), Shirokuma.

Computed rank for W/L: Kagayaki 19w/21w, Tamashoho 19e/21e, Tokihayate 18w/20w, Kotoshoho 18w/20w, Mitakeumi 16w/18w.

Computed rank for W/L: Asakoryu 16w/18w, Kayo 17w/OUT, Shirokuma 18e/20e.

The only head-to-head is Tamashoho vs. Mitakeumi, so there are 128 possible outcomes, which I'm not going to go through, but I think we could have anywhere between 5 and 7 exchanges.

 

[Reonito 1,449]

Worst-case scenario for Mitakeumi: he loses, everyone else wins, there are 7 promotions, and he loses the 18w coin flip to Tokihayate and Kotoshoho, so I don't think he's entirely safe.

Worst-case scenario for Asakoryu: he loses, everyone else wins, Kayo and Shirokuma go up ahead of him, and he doesn't replace any of Tokihayate, Kotoshoho, or Mitakeumi, so I don't think he's clinched promotion yet.

[Reonito 1,449]

The last two spots in Juryo come down to the quintet below.

                                                  max   min    can be passed by
Shimazuumi     J10e 3-11  Ms3e  Ms5e   4-11: Kusano, Miyagi, Otsuji(W) / 3-12: Otsuji(L)
Daiamami         J11e 4-10  Ms2e  Ms4e   5-10: none / 4-11: Kusano, Otsuji(W)

Kusano              Ms3w 4-3   Ms2w
Miyagi                Ms4e 4-3    Ms3e
Otsuji                 Ms5w 4-2    Ms2w  Ms4w

Shimazuumi faces Otsuji, and Daiamami faces Wakanosho.

Both incumbents win: Kusano replaces Shimazuumi, and that's it.

Both incumbents lose: Otsuji and Kusano replace them.

Shimazuumi loses, Daiamami wins: Otsuji replaces Shimazuumi, and that's it.

Shimazuumi wins, Daiamami loses: Kusano and Miyagi replace them.

 

Edited January 25 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,449]

Sanyaku: We'll have S1e Daiesho (S1w, 10-4). The other 3 spots are TBD. Wakamotoharu will be a maegashira. K1e Abi (7-7) needs to beat Daieisho, and K1w WTK (7-7) must beat Ichiyamamoto, to avoid joining him. Kirishima and Oho are the only credible contenders for the named ranks. If only one slot is open and Oho loses, he just might miss out. Otherwise, both will have done enough to force open an extra slot. If two spots are open, they neatly fill them. If Abi and WTK both lose, the next-best promotion candidate is M3e Gonoyama (7-7) if he wins, or they'd have to consider the best of Chiyoshoma, Ura if he wins, Takayasu, Kinbozan, or Takerufuji. In such a scenario, Abi could slide over to K1w with a 7-8.

[Sumo Spiffy 556]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Sanyaku: We'll have S1e Daiesho (S1w, 10-4). The other 3 spots are TBD. Wakamotoharu will be a maegashira. K1e Abi (7-7) needs to beat Daieisho, and K1w WTK (7-7) must beat Ichiyamamoto, to avoid joining him. Kirishima and Oho are the only credible contenders for the named ranks. If only one slot is open and Oho loses, he just might miss out. Otherwise, both will have done enough to force open an extra slot. If two spots are open, they neatly fill them. If Abi and WTK both lose, the next-best promotion candidate is M3e Gonoyama (7-7) if he wins, or they'd have to consider the best of Chiyoshoma, Ura if he wins, Takayasu, Kinbozan, or Takerufuji. In such a scenario, Abi could slide over to K1w with a 7-8.

GTB is gonna be hell if they both lose.

[Bunbukuchagama 717]

42 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

GTB is gonna be hell if they both lose.

Actually, not knowing the size of sanyaku can cost you much more if you guessed it wrong.

[Reonito 1,449]

6 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Actually, not knowing the size of sanyaku can cost you much more if you guessed it wrong.

Yeah I think it's worse if they both win.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Daiamami is the first juryo rikishi in almost 15 years to face four makushita opponents across the final five days.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

But it didn't end up saving Daiamami, loss for him against Wakanosho. The list of nominally demotable juryo rikishi became quite a bit shorter with the final day thanks to wins by Shimanoumi, Daiseizan and Kiryuko, while Hatsuyama and already dropping Shimazuumi (vs Otsuji) and Daishoho were defeated.

   Down/Out Queue       Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Terunofuji  Y1e  intai    n/a          n/a     Wakanosho  Ms1e 5-2
Daishoho    J14w 1-14     4.0   <  13+5 = 18   Hitoshi    Ms4w 6-1
Bushozan    J7w  0-0-15   8.0   <  15+1 = 16   Kazekeno   Ms1w 4-3
Shimazuumi  J10e 3-12     9.5   <   9+3 = 12   Otsuji     Ms5w 5-2
Daiamami    J11e 4-11     6.5   <   7+1 =  8   Kusano     Ms3w 4-3
Hatsuyama   J12e 6-9      6.0   >   3+1 =  4   Miyagi     Ms4e 4-3

(I don't think we're needing any formulas for this one in the end...) Hard luck for Miyagi that the in/out line is going right through the half-rank difference between him and same-score Kusano, but it would be very surprising if they demoted Hatsuyama for him or if he gained preference over Otsuji.

Edited January 26 by Asashosakari

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

So we have five clear promotions from juryo: Shishi, Ryuden, Aonishiki, Sadanoumi and Asakoryu.

Shirokuma is there if you need a sixth promotee.

 

Edited January 26 by Tigerboy1966
typo

[Akinomaki 40,421]

Kayo blew the almost certain promotion chance, but still there are 5 who should be promoted and only 4 definite openings in makuuchi - actually much more, but no longer as they should be. Today's results should make it easier to spot the lucky one who will remain

[Akinomaki 40,421]

All in most danger won - only Kagayaki is miraculously transferred to the 2nd half - when his shisho is head shimpan -  maybe indicating that his danger of demotion as the deshi of the department head is minimal - but it has to be him, who is demoted

Edited January 26 by Akinomaki

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

We end with a three-way tie involving Mitakeumi, Tokihayate and Kotoshoho. They work out half a rank behind Shirokuma but I think that maku'uchi privilege will see all three staying up.