Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2025

[Akinomaki 40,421]

23 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

We end with a three-way tie involving Mitakeumi, Tokihayate and Kotoshoho. They work out half a rank behind Shirokuma but I think that maku'uchi privilege will see all three staying up.

All 3 are above Tamashoho in the queue, so it's only the question Tamashoho or Shirokuma, Kagayaki should be toast to make room for Asakoryu

[Tigerboy1966 1,445]

I can't see any logjams or gaping holes in the next banzuke. Either Kirishima or Oho will get the vacant sekiwake slot; whoever loses out gets K1e. Looks as though Abi will keep his rank but shuffle to the west as there are no other obvious candidates for K1w. Hey Chiyoshoma! This is what happens when you take your foot off the gas in the second week!

[Koorifuu 991]

Useless curiosity: Daimasakari got his first mage for the yusho ceremony.

[Gurowake 4,050]

Tamashoho(6-9 M16e)	J1	Kagayaki(6-9 M16w)
Kayo(7-8 J1w)	J2	Roga(0-3 M8e)
Kitanowaka(4-5 M15w)	J3	Tochitaikai(8-7 J7e)
Oshoumi(9-6 J9w)	J4	Fujiseiun(8-7 J8e)
Shiden(5-10 J2e)	J5	Mitoryu(8-7 J8w)
Nabatame(11-4 J14e)	J6	Hidenoumi(7-8 J6e)
Tomokaze(7-8 J6w)	J7	Hokutofuji(0-0 M14e)
Kotoeiho(10-5 J13w)	J8	Hakuyozan(8-7 J10w)
Wakaikari(9-3 J13e)	J9	Tohakuryu(8-7 J11w)
Wakanosho(5-2 Ms1e)	J10	Shimanoumi(3-12 J5e)
Daiseizan(5-10 J9e)	J11	Tsurugisho(2-13 J3w)
Kazekeno(4-3 Ms1w)	J12	Kiryuko(7-8 J12w)
Hitoshi(6-1 Ms4w)	J13	Hatsuyama(6-9 J12e)
Otsuji(5-2 Ms5w)	J14	Kusano(4-3 Ms3w)

 

I'm mostly ambivalent about Tamashoho vs. Shirokuma for the last Makuuchi spot, but there's a tendency to give the same banzuke treatment when two rikishi at the same rank have the same score as long as there isn't a good reason why they shouldn't. 

 

edit: Hitoshi should probably be higher, computing to J13 when a lot of those ahead of him compute to J14, but I'm not going to change it now.  

Edited January 26 by Gurowake

[Rocks 1,809]

7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I can't see any logjams or gaping holes in the next banzuke. Either Kirishima or Oho will get the vacant sekiwake slot; whoever loses out gets K1e. Looks as though Abi will keep his rank but shuffle to the west as there are no other obvious candidates for K1w. Hey Chiyoshoma! This is what happens when you take your foot off the gas in the second week!

Give him a break, he started facing the Sanyaku the second week. His only egregious loss was to Takarafuji. Considering his age and doing so well this high I think they give him it so he can refer to himself as a former Komusubi when he retires.  It is his first KK at M5 or above. 

[Reonito 1,449]

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

We end with a three-way tie involving Mitakeumi, Tokihayate and Kotoshoho. They work out half a rank behind Shirokuma but I think that maku'uchi privilege will see all three staying up.

They're also ahead of Kagayaki and Tamashoho, so assuming they go by the numbers, I don't think Shirokuma even factors into their fate.

[Reonito 1,449]

So, just to wrap everything up:

Y/O: looks like we will have a new Yokozuna after all?

San'yaku: the Waka brothers down, Kirishima and Oho up (but in which order?), and it comes down to K1 Abi (7-8) vs. M3e Gonoyama (8-7) for K1w.

Makuuchi-Juryo: Shishi, Ryuden, Aonishiki, and Sadanoumi will take the places vacated by Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, and Kitanowaka. Asakoryu is the 5th promotion; he should replace Kagayaki. The final spot in the top division should come down to Shirokuma vs. Tamashoho. With no other remotely plausible promotion candidates, the lucky survivors should be Mitakeumi, Kotoshoho, and Tokihayate, unless they deviate from the math or Mitakeumi calls it quits.

Juryo-Makushita: Wakanosho, Hitoshi, Kazekeno, Otsuji, and Kusano should take the places vacated by Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi, and Daiamami. Hatsuyama survives despite a (barely) demotable record; Miyagi narrowly misses out, unless there's another retirement.

[Akinomaki 40,421]

Fastest makuuchi promotion ever by a foreigner for Aonishiki coming, 9 basho http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/22/kiji/20250122s00005000339000c.html

[Reonito 1,449]

10 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Fastest makuuchi promotion ever by a foreigner for Aonishiki coming, 9 basho http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/22/kiji/20250122s00005000339000c.html

Out of reacts, but that's a cool stat. He's been incredibly impressive to watch from the start.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Also tied for fastest non-tsukedashi overall, with Jokoryu and Takerufuji. The fastest foreigner so far was Osunaarashi with 10 tournaments.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

2010 gambling scandal fallout aside, the repromotions for Sadanoumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden and Shishi will tie Haru 2025 for the largest number of immediate makuuchi returns ever.

Edited January 26 by Asashosakari

[Sumo Spiffy 556]

14 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Hey Chiyoshoma! This is what happens when you take your foot off the gas in the second week!

That's harsh, man. The fact he was even in a position to face the absolute killers that took him down a notch was his win for the basho.

[Oskanohana 261]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Fastest makuuchi promotion ever by a foreigner for Aonishiki coming, 9 basho http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/22/kiji/20250122s00005000339000c.html

I suppose this is not counting tsukedashi starts, because Ichinojo did it in 5, which is certainly unbeatable by a jonokuchi starter.

[Oskanohana 261]

The makushita jo'i for next basho looks like an eclectic bunch, as always. From juryo, Daiamami and Shimazuumi should get a spot to defend yotsu pride, Daishoho won't have a spot nor pride. Kyujo Bushozan is pretty much on the line: if he's demoted exactly 12 ranks he goes to Ms5w. Sometimes they do 12, sometimes they do 14, it depends, on what, I cannot say.

Here are the makushita results so you can make your own mind. I've boldened 5 guys that can't be really denied

7-0

Ms44e Mudoho (aka Oho's younger brother)

6-1

Ms4w Hitoshi
Ms8w Ishizaki (aka Ishizaki's younger brother, I mean....Asakoryu, that's the name)
Ms17e Mita
Ms31w Gojinyu

5-2

Ms1e Wakanosho
Ms5w Otsuji
Ms7e Tochimaru (aka the fastest gun in the east)
Ms14e Kotokenryu
 

4-3

Ms1w Kazekeno
Ms3w Kusano
Ms4e Miyagi (aka yet another vertically challenged prospect)
Ms6e Nishinoryu (aka a pretty normal yotsu guy, so he sticks out like a sore thumb amongst this bunch)
Ms7w Tenshoho
Ms9w Takakento

3-4

Ms2e Kotokuzan
Ms2w Akua

For the other 3 spots, the 5-2 bracket is done and from the 6-1, Mita has a shot but they seem to be going harsher on 6-1 promotions. If I had to bet, Sadogatake impersonator Kotokuzan and kakenage master Akua stay as a package as they like to give another shot to Ms2's minimal make-koshi and then we'd have Bushozan vs Tenshoho vs Mita for the last spot. If Bushozan is going to participate in Haru, he'd be hard done if he gets left out after getting 10 consecutive KK's in juryo (still boggles my mind this).

So there you go, now you can have a guess on who will be denied a sekitori spot for Natsu in favour of keeping Shimanoumi.

[Akinomaki 40,421]

Sponichi published their detailed promotion/demotion prediction on the net, they have a detailed makuuchi banzuke prediction in the paper and usually post comments to that, but so far not that detailed.

For sanyaku it's between Abi half a rank down and Gonoyama new to sanyaku - no preference given.

For promotion to makuuchi, they include Shirokuma, as demotion for him one of Tamashoho and Tokihayate (IMO unlikely with the present fashion and the fact that he already was demoted once like that, when there was no need for it)

For juryo promotion 5 or 6 - Hatsuyama could be demoted in favour of Miyagi, but not likely. http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/28/kiji/20250128s00005000057000c.html

Edited Tuesday at 17:55 by Akinomaki

[Reonito 1,449]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

For promotion to makuuchi, they include Shirokuma, as demotion for him one of Tamashoho and Tokihayate (IMO unlikely with the present fashion and the fact that he already was demoted once like that, when their was no need for it)

Do you mean the Bushozan-Tokihayate swap after Natsu last year?

[Akinomaki 40,421]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Do you mean the Bushozan-Tokihayate swap after Natsu last year?

That one, one basho before Nishikifuji was kept with the same result, while being 2 ranks lower, which marked the start of the change of banzuke fashion

[Reonito 1,449]

46 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

That one, one basho before Nishikifuji was kept with the same result, while being 2 ranks lower, which marked the start of the change of banzuke fashion

To be fair, Bushozan's 9-6 from J2e was a legit promotion case, while in the next basho they already pulled up Kitanowaka (J3e, 8-7), and the next-best case belonged to Shishi (11-4 at 10e) or Tamashoho (9-6 at 6w), which are not results that warrant promotion. The thinking among GTB players was that they'd opt to save Onosho or Chiyoshoma rather than Nishikifuji, because we thought the optics of keeping the bottom-most guy with 9 losses were unacceptable.