Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2025

[Akinomaki 40,724]

23 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

We end with a three-way tie involving Mitakeumi, Tokihayate and Kotoshoho. They work out half a rank behind Shirokuma but I think that maku'uchi privilege will see all three staying up.

All 3 are above Tamashoho in the queue, so it's only the question Tamashoho or Shirokuma, Kagayaki should be toast to make room for Asakoryu

[Tigerboy1966 1,457]

I can't see any logjams or gaping holes in the next banzuke. Either Kirishima or Oho will get the vacant sekiwake slot; whoever loses out gets K1e. Looks as though Abi will keep his rank but shuffle to the west as there are no other obvious candidates for K1w. Hey Chiyoshoma! This is what happens when you take your foot off the gas in the second week!

[Koorifuu 1,019]

Useless curiosity: Daimasakari got his first mage for the yusho ceremony.

[Gurowake 4,099]

Tamashoho(6-9 M16e)	J1	Kagayaki(6-9 M16w)
Kayo(7-8 J1w)	J2	Roga(0-3 M8e)
Kitanowaka(4-5 M15w)	J3	Tochitaikai(8-7 J7e)
Oshoumi(9-6 J9w)	J4	Fujiseiun(8-7 J8e)
Shiden(5-10 J2e)	J5	Mitoryu(8-7 J8w)
Nabatame(11-4 J14e)	J6	Hidenoumi(7-8 J6e)
Tomokaze(7-8 J6w)	J7	Hokutofuji(0-0 M14e)
Kotoeiho(10-5 J13w)	J8	Hakuyozan(8-7 J10w)
Wakaikari(9-3 J13e)	J9	Tohakuryu(8-7 J11w)
Wakanosho(5-2 Ms1e)	J10	Shimanoumi(3-12 J5e)
Daiseizan(5-10 J9e)	J11	Tsurugisho(2-13 J3w)
Kazekeno(4-3 Ms1w)	J12	Kiryuko(7-8 J12w)
Hitoshi(6-1 Ms4w)	J13	Hatsuyama(6-9 J12e)
Otsuji(5-2 Ms5w)	J14	Kusano(4-3 Ms3w)

 

I'm mostly ambivalent about Tamashoho vs. Shirokuma for the last Makuuchi spot, but there's a tendency to give the same banzuke treatment when two rikishi at the same rank have the same score as long as there isn't a good reason why they shouldn't. 

 

edit: Hitoshi should probably be higher, computing to J13 when a lot of those ahead of him compute to J14, but I'm not going to change it now.  

Edited January 26 by Gurowake

[Rocks 1,809]

7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I can't see any logjams or gaping holes in the next banzuke. Either Kirishima or Oho will get the vacant sekiwake slot; whoever loses out gets K1e. Looks as though Abi will keep his rank but shuffle to the west as there are no other obvious candidates for K1w. Hey Chiyoshoma! This is what happens when you take your foot off the gas in the second week!

Give him a break, he started facing the Sanyaku the second week. His only egregious loss was to Takarafuji. Considering his age and doing so well this high I think they give him it so he can refer to himself as a former Komusubi when he retires.  It is his first KK at M5 or above. 

[Reonito 1,509]

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

We end with a three-way tie involving Mitakeumi, Tokihayate and Kotoshoho. They work out half a rank behind Shirokuma but I think that maku'uchi privilege will see all three staying up.

They're also ahead of Kagayaki and Tamashoho, so assuming they go by the numbers, I don't think Shirokuma even factors into their fate.

[Reonito 1,509]

So, just to wrap everything up:

Y/O: looks like we will have a new Yokozuna after all?

San'yaku: the Waka brothers down, Kirishima and Oho up (but in which order?), and it comes down to K1 Abi (7-8) vs. M3e Gonoyama (8-7) for K1w.

Makuuchi-Juryo: Shishi, Ryuden, Aonishiki, and Sadanoumi will take the places vacated by Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, and Kitanowaka. Asakoryu is the 5th promotion; he should replace Kagayaki. The final spot in the top division should come down to Shirokuma vs. Tamashoho. With no other remotely plausible promotion candidates, the lucky survivors should be Mitakeumi, Kotoshoho, and Tokihayate, unless they deviate from the math or Mitakeumi calls it quits.

Juryo-Makushita: Wakanosho, Hitoshi, Kazekeno, Otsuji, and Kusano should take the places vacated by Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi, and Daiamami. Hatsuyama survives despite a (barely) demotable record; Miyagi narrowly misses out, unless there's another retirement.

[Akinomaki 40,724]

Fastest makuuchi promotion ever by a foreigner for Aonishiki coming, 9 basho http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/22/kiji/20250122s00005000339000c.html

[Reonito 1,509]

10 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Fastest makuuchi promotion ever by a foreigner for Aonishiki coming, 9 basho http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/22/kiji/20250122s00005000339000c.html

Out of reacts, but that's a cool stat. He's been incredibly impressive to watch from the start.

[Asashosakari 19,610]

Also tied for fastest non-tsukedashi overall, with Jokoryu and Takerufuji. The fastest foreigner so far was Osunaarashi with 10 tournaments.

[Asashosakari 19,610]

2010 gambling scandal fallout aside, the repromotions for Sadanoumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden and Shishi will tie Haru 2025 for the largest number of immediate makuuchi returns ever.

Edited January 26 by Asashosakari

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

14 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Hey Chiyoshoma! This is what happens when you take your foot off the gas in the second week!

That's harsh, man. The fact he was even in a position to face the absolute killers that took him down a notch was his win for the basho.

[Oskanohana 293]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Fastest makuuchi promotion ever by a foreigner for Aonishiki coming, 9 basho http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/22/kiji/20250122s00005000339000c.html

I suppose this is not counting tsukedashi starts, because Ichinojo did it in 5, which is certainly unbeatable by a jonokuchi starter.

[Oskanohana 293]

The makushita jo'i for next basho looks like an eclectic bunch, as always. From juryo, Daiamami and Shimazuumi should get a spot to defend yotsu pride, Daishoho won't have a spot nor pride. Kyujo Bushozan is pretty much on the line: if he's demoted exactly 12 ranks he goes to Ms5w. Sometimes they do 12, sometimes they do 14, it depends, on what, I cannot say.

Here are the makushita results so you can make your own mind. I've boldened 5 guys that can't be really denied

7-0

Ms44e Mudoho (aka Oho's younger brother)

6-1

Ms4w Hitoshi
Ms8w Ishizaki (aka Ishizaki's younger brother, I mean....Asakoryu, that's the name)
Ms17e Mita
Ms31w Gojinyu

5-2

Ms1e Wakanosho
Ms5w Otsuji
Ms7e Tochimaru (aka the fastest gun in the east)
Ms14e Kotokenryu
 

4-3

Ms1w Kazekeno
Ms3w Kusano
Ms4e Miyagi (aka yet another vertically challenged prospect)
Ms6e Nishinoryu (aka a pretty normal yotsu guy, so he sticks out like a sore thumb amongst this bunch)
Ms7w Tenshoho
Ms9w Takakento

3-4

Ms2e Kotokuzan
Ms2w Akua

For the other 3 spots, the 5-2 bracket is done and from the 6-1, Mita has a shot but they seem to be going harsher on 6-1 promotions. If I had to bet, Sadogatake impersonator Kotokuzan and kakenage master Akua stay as a package as they like to give another shot to Ms2's minimal make-koshi and then we'd have Bushozan vs Tenshoho vs Mita for the last spot. If Bushozan is going to participate in Haru, he'd be hard done if he gets left out after getting 10 consecutive KK's in juryo (still boggles my mind this).

So there you go, now you can have a guess on who will be denied a sekitori spot for Natsu in favour of keeping Shimanoumi.

[Akinomaki 40,724]

Sponichi published their detailed promotion/demotion prediction on the net, they have a detailed makuuchi banzuke prediction in the paper and usually post comments to that, but so far not that detailed.

For sanyaku it's between Abi half a rank down and Gonoyama new to sanyaku - no preference given.

For promotion to makuuchi, they include Shirokuma, as demotion for him one of Tamashoho and Tokihayate (IMO unlikely with the present fashion and the fact that he already was demoted once like that, when there was no need for it)

For juryo promotion 5 or 6 - Hatsuyama could be demoted in favour of Miyagi, but not likely. http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/01/28/kiji/20250128s00005000057000c.html

Edited January 28 by Akinomaki

[Reonito 1,509]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

For promotion to makuuchi, they include Shirokuma, as demotion for him one of Tamashoho and Tokihayate (IMO unlikely with the present fashion and the fact that he already was demoted once like that, when their was no need for it)

Do you mean the Bushozan-Tokihayate swap after Natsu last year?

[Akinomaki 40,724]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Do you mean the Bushozan-Tokihayate swap after Natsu last year?

That one, one basho before Nishikifuji was kept with the same result, while being 2 ranks lower, which marked the start of the change of banzuke fashion

[Reonito 1,509]

46 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

That one, one basho before Nishikifuji was kept with the same result, while being 2 ranks lower, which marked the start of the change of banzuke fashion

To be fair, Bushozan's 9-6 from J2e was a legit promotion case, while in the next basho they already pulled up Kitanowaka (J3e, 8-7), and the next-best case belonged to Shishi (11-4 at 10e) or Tamashoho (9-6 at 6w), which are not results that warrant promotion. The thinking among GTB players was that they'd opt to save Onosho or Chiyoshoma rather than Nishikifuji, because we thought the optics of keeping the bottom-most guy with 9 losses were unacceptable.

[Kintamayama 45,490]

How about 3 Sekiwakes to round things up tidily and keep a minimal 8 man sanyaku? Impossible? Seems possible record-wise and Banzuke-luck wise. And Gounoyama-Abi as Komusubi? Wish I had the kintamas to go with that, but if it doesn't happen..

[Reonito 1,509]

11 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

How about 3 Sekiwakes to round things up tidily and keep a minimal 8 man sanyaku? Impossible? Seems possible record-wise and Banzuke-luck wise. And Gounoyama-Abi as Komusubi? Wish I had the kintamas to go with that, but if it doesn't happen..

Gonoyama at K is already a bit of a stretch...

[Asashosakari 19,610]

Pretty late, I hope I still remember what I was thinking when I drew up these guesses weeks ago...

Juryo:

Tamashoho (M16e 6-9)     J1   Kagayaki (M16w 6-9)
Kayo (J1w 7-8)           J2   Kitanowaka (M15w 4-5-6)
Roga (M8e 0-3-12)        J3   Tochitaikai (J7e 8-7)
Oshoumi (J9w 9-6)        J4   Nabatame (J14e 11-4)
Shiden (J2e 5-10)        J5   Fujiseiun (J8e 8-7)
Hidenoumi (J6e 7-8)      J6   Mitoryu (J8w 8-7)
Tomokaze (J6w 7-8)       J7   Kotoeiho (J13w 10-5)
Hakuyozan (J10w 8-7)     J8   Wakaikari (J13e 9-3-3)
Hokutofuji (M14e 0-0-15) J9   Tohakuryu (J11w 8-7)
Shimanoumi (J5e 3-12)    J10  Tsurugisho (J3w 2-13)
Daiseizan (J9e 5-10)     J11  Wakanosho (Ms1e 5-2)
Hitoshi (Ms4w 6-1)       J12  Kiryuko (J12w 7-8)
Hatsuyama (J12e 6-9)     J13  Kazekeno (Ms1w 4-3)
Otsuji (Ms5w 5-2)        J14  Kusano (Ms3w 4-3)

Gaps pretty much everywhere, there's really no rikishi here whose movement can be considered unlucky.

Makushita:

Daiamami (J11e 4-11)     Ms1  Miyagi (Ms4e 4-3)
Shimazuumi (J10e 3-12)   Ms2  Ishizaki (Ms8w 6-1)
Tochimaru (Ms7e 5-2)     Ms3  Nishinoryu (Ms6e 4-3)
Mudoho (Ms44e 7-0 Y)     Ms4  Tenshoho (Ms7w 4-3)
Kotokuzan (Ms2e 3-4)     Ms5  Akua (Ms2w 3-4)
Bushozan (J7w 0-0-15)    Ms6  Mita (Ms17e 6-1)
Takakento (Ms9w 4-3)     Ms7  Kotokenryu (Ms14e 5-2)
Kaisho (Ms15w 5-2)       Ms8  Kyokukaiyu (Ms16e 5-2)
Tochimusashi (Ms14w 4-3) Ms9  Dewanoryu (Ms22e 5-2)
Gojinyu (Ms31w 6-1)      Ms10 Kitaharima (Ms24w 5-2)
Okaryu (Ms17w 4-3)       Ms11 Asakoki (Ms18e 4-3)
Daishoho (J14w 1-14)     Ms12 Fujinoyama (Ms26e 5-2)
Satorufuji (Ms19e 4-3)   Ms13 Inami (Ms19w 4-3)
Asahakuryu (Ms9e 3-4)    Ms14 Tsushimanada (Ms38w 6-1)
Chiyomaru (Ms10e 3-4)    Ms15 Hamayutaka (Ms29e 5-2)

I'm reasonably certain that the top 4 ranks will feature those eight rikishi, though it's easy to quibble with the details...Miyagi and/or Ishizaki might have ended up in front of the respective juryo demotee at their rank, and yusho winner Mudoho could easily go half a rank higher or lower.

Lots of people whose comments I've read - granted, mostly Futagoyama-beya aficionados - seem to believe that Mita will have made it into the top 5, but I'm not convinced. Nevertheless, that small block from Kotokuzan to Mita could be ranked in just about any order (outside of reversing the two 3-4's, obviously) without looking particularly odd. Bushozan is of course a bit of a wildcard altogether, anything from Ms5e to Ms7w is probably justifiable.

Regular service continues until Ms8w, after which a massive hole opened up which I could barely begin to guess how they might have filled it. Gojinyu is very high (Ms12/13 would be more typical) - 6-1's often don't seem to benefit much from available banzuke luck, but when I'm forced to put Kitaharima ahead of Okaryu (7 ranks on one win) because of all the available space, it seemed very odd to not put Gojinyu ahead of both of them (also 7 ranks on one win over Kitaharima).

I do wonder whether I've been too harsh with Daishoho; another likely landing spot for him may well be Ms10e, I guess. (Or even Ms9e, before all of the overpromoted rikishi? That would be very lucky.)

There are really only 28 rikishi here who deserve to be ranked in the top 15 by recent history, though Tsushimanada's rank/record combo at least isn't far off. Hamayutaka will definitely be very lucky if he has made it in - that last happened from Ms29 or lower almost five years ago and most rikishi since then fell well short of Ms15 - but the list of possible alternatives is not exactly inspiring confidence in their chances:

Asashiyu (Ms40w 6-1)
Kazenoumi (Ms23w 4-3)
Tosamidori (Ms13e 3-4)
Matsui (Ms8e 2-5)

Asashiyu is certainly the second-best candidate after Hamayutaka. Free of context, Kazenoumi would also be an acceptable enough choice, but I can't see him getting the nod when Hamayutaka was only 5.5 ranks behind him on this specific banzuke.

Edited February 19 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,610]

I forgot to include one thing I started to do last time around and actually meant to continue with - besides retired Terunofuji and Onosho, the 13 rikishi who are going up into the top 15 ranks have replaced the following 11:

Tosamidori (Ms13e 3-4)
Hokutomaru (Ms13w 3-4)
Fujitoshi (Ms15e 3-4)

Matsui (Ms8e 2-5)
Kamito (Ms11e 2-1-4)
Toseiryu (Ms11w 2-5)
Yuma (Ms12e 2-4-1)
Nihonyanagi (Ms12w 2-3-2)

Osanai (Ms5e 1-6)
Kaiseijo (Ms6w 1-6)

Kurohimeyama (Ms10w 0-1-6)

Incidentally, the 13 promotions would be tied for most in the 21st century, disregarding the unusual situations after the match-fixing bans (2011.05) and after the makuuchi/juryo expansion (2003.11).

Edited February 20 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,610]

Projected movements between the lower divisions:

Promotions from sandanme
7-0   x1 Sd32e
6-1   x6 Sd4e, Sd8w, Sd25e, Sd35w, Sd36w, Sd50e
5-2   x7 Sd1w, Sd7w, Sd11w, Sd14e, Sd15w, Sd16w, Sd19e, (Sd26e, Sd26w, Sd27e)
4-3   x5 Sd3e, Sd4w, Sd5e,  Sd7e,  Sd9w, (Sd12e, Sd13e)
--------
     x19 (summary)

Likely demotions from makushita
intai x2 Y1e,   Ms3e
0-0-7 x5 Ms60w, Ms49w,  Ms41w,  Ms40e, Ms36e
0-7   x2 Ms58e, Ms30w
1-6   x5 Ms56w, Ms53w,  Ms48w,  Ms45w, Ms42w, (Ms31e)
2-5   x2 Ms59w, Ms51w, (Ms45e,  Ms42e)
3-4   x3 Ms55w, Ms55e,  Ms54e, (Ms52w, Ms52e)
--------
     x19

That's what should happen if they do what they normally do. However, that would mean some very lucky makekoshi rikishi; both 3-4 at Ms52 and lower and 2-5 at Ms45 and lower are getting demoted nearly every time, and unlike most basho there are actually several credible candidates for promotion juuust outside the nominal zones (listed in brackets in the 5-2 and 4-3 rows). I still don't really expect them to have deviated from the standard 19 promotions, but the likelihood of a curveball is definitely higher than it has been in quite a few years.

(In the 3-4 at Ms52 and lower list you'll find an extremely lucky rikishi who survived from Ms55w after Natsu 2022...in that case the best potential replacement was a 5-2 at Sd27w, worse than all five candidates this time.)

Additional note: There's also a non-zero chance that they demoted Ms45e 2-5 and kept Ms54e 3-4 instead.

Shin-makushita for Haru
Shimizuumi (Sd3e 4-3)
Noda (Sd8w 6-1)
Ikazuchido (Sd14e 5-2)
Yamato (Sd15w 5-2)
Dairinzan (Sd19e 5-2)
Daimasakari (Sd32w 7-0 Y)
Daikosho (Sd36w 6-1)
Yonezawaryu (Sd50e 6-1)

plus Soma (Sd26e 5-2) if they were feeling adventurous

If you haven't read it yet, I'd like to direct your attention to @Muhomatsu's spotlight article on the eight debutants at tachiai.org.

Promotions from jonidan
SdTd  x1
7-0   x1 Jd19w
6-1   x7 Jd5e,  Jd8e,  Jd31w, Jd37w, Jd56w, Jd58w, Jd60w
5-2  x11 Jd11e, Jd11w, Jd12w, Jd13e, Jd15w, Jd24e, Jd24w, Jd25e, Jd33e, Jd34e, Jd36w
4-3  x11 Jd1e,  Jd2e,  Jd4e,  Jd6w,  Jd7e,  Jd7w,  Jd8w,  Jd10w, Jd17w, Jd18w, Jd20e
--------
     x31 (summary)

Likely demotions from sandanme
intai x4 Y1e,    Ms3e,  Sd8e,  Sd20w
0-0-7 x4 Sd56w,  Sd51e, Sd23w, Sd23e
0-7   x1 Sd57w, (Sd29w)
1-6   x5 Sd73e,  Sd65e, Sd63w, Sd50w, Sd45w, (Sd39e)
2-5   x9 Sd80e,  Sd79w, Sd77e, Sd75w, Sd75e,  Sd70e, Sd66e, Sd58e,  Sd53w, (Sd52w)
3-4   x8 Sd76e,  Sd74w, Sd72w, Sd69w, Sd69e,  Sd67w, Sd66w, Sd65w, (Sd63e,  Sd62w, Sd60w)
--------
     x31

They might have saved the last 1-6 and/or the last 2-5 and demoted additional 3-4's instead, but I'm going with that version as my prediction.

Shin-sandanme for Haru
Yamane (Jd6w 4-3)
Furuta (Jd8e 6-1)
Seiyu (Jd13e 5-2)
Hakuryu (Jd33e 5-2)
Hakuyo (Jd58w 6-1)

Jd/Jk split
 200 Jd
  37 Jk
- 10 intai
-  1 >Bg
+  1 SdTd
+ 11 Mz
----
 238 = 119 ranks

A rather unexpected expansion of the banzuke (by one spot). 

Likely to be in Jk
Mz      x11
Jk 0-7   x2  Jk19e, Jk10e
Jk 1-6   x5  Jk18w, Jk12w,  Jk11w, Jk7w,  Jk2e
Jk 2-5   x6  Jk12e, Jk9w,   Jk8e,  Jk4e,  Jk3w,  Jk1w
Jk 3-4   x8  Jk17w, Jk16w,  Jk13e, Jk9e,  Jk8w,  Jk6e,  Jk5w,  Jk2w
Jd 0-0-7 x7  Jd84w, Jd80w,  Jd65e, Jd64w, Jd62w, Jd50w, Jd46e
Jd 0-7   x1  Jd77e
Jd 1-6   x2  Jd99e, Jd87e, (Jd74e)
Jd 2-5   x2  Jd98e, Jd96w, (Jd92e, Jd90w, Jd85w)
Jd 3-4   x0 (Jd99w, Jd95e,  Jd94w, Jd94e)
-----------
        x44 => 97 Jd, 22 Jk

They're not going to keep the jonidan division at 100 ranks for Haru without some contortions - I demoted a few more rikishi than outright necessary there, but even the strict "should be in jonokuchi" list (from Mz to Jd 0-7) already amounts to 40 names for a 99 Jd, 20 Jk split, so they'd have to resort to promoting at least some Jk 3-4's to stay at 100.

If it's not the 97 / 22 split I've outlined, then 98 / 21 by demoting only one 1-6 and one 2-5 might also make some sense.

Edited February 21 by Asashosakari

[Fashiritētā 184]

On 08/02/2025 at 00:15, Kintamayama said:

How about 3 Sekiwakes to round things up tidily and keep a minimal 8 man sanyaku? Impossible? Seems possible record-wise and Banzuke-luck wise. And Gounoyama-Abi as Komusubi? Wish I had the kintamas to go with that, but if it doesn't happen..

I was feeling high risk high reward since i did so bad last basho.

But you never know. Late in reply, been very sick, glad it wasn’t during the Basho.

Edited February 22 by Fashiritētā