Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2025

[Oskanohana 261]

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Well well well, I'm sure Asashosakari will post this in more detail, but the Oitekaze gang vastly impressed me. I had Noda and Ikarigata as favourites, but the Dai boys whooped them a new one. Poor Daiyusho ate a massive henka instead of joining them, though.

And we have the chance of a 6-1 Sandanme massive play-off with 10 guys or so. What's the usual torikumi practice in here for these 6-0 guys? I'd guess putting the closest 5-1 to each one on the banzuke? Thing is with Ai (Jd89) this round they paired him against a Jd71, skipping Jd87, Jd79, Jd77 and Jd76 and some guys closer but below Jd89 on the banzuke. Do they pick the rival randomly around those on the vicinity or do they choose a strong fella purposefully? The solution would be of course to let them fight it out directly as in this case there can't be the doubt of maaaybe one losses willingly to the other so both promote to makushita (if one of them was Sd51+, for instance, which is the cut point for 6-1 promotions), but no, that can't be done.

[Asashosakari 19,319]

7 hours ago, Oskanohana said:

And we have the chance of a 6-1 Sandanme massive play-off with 10 guys or so. What's the usual torikumi practice in here for these 6-0 guys? I'd guess putting the closest 5-1 to each one on the banzuke? Thing is with Ai (Jd89) this round they paired him against a Jd71, skipping Jd87, Jd79, Jd77 and Jd76 and some guys closer but below Jd89 on the banzuke. Do they pick the rival randomly around those on the vicinity or do they choose a strong fella purposefully?

Generally, matching up rikishi with different records means that the guy with the worse score should have the better ranking. They seem to aim for a difference of about 15 to 20 ranks as the sweet spot (as was seen in those two 5-0 vs 4-1 pairings), but of course there's not always an appropriate rikishi available in that range. So we've got:

Sd1w Aron
Sd4e Enho
Sd7w Chiyodaigo
Sd8w Noda (can only face Daikosho)
Sd15w Yamato
Sd25e Kirinryu
Sd26e Soma

My guess would be Sd32e Daimasakari - Sd15w Yamato and Sd36w Daikosho - Sd25e Kirinryu, but there's no obvious answer here.

Down in Jd/Jk, Daikisho also needs an opponent and might actually face Ai, who almost certainly would have been his opponent if Ai had won his 5-0 vs 4-1 bout.

Edited January 23 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,456]

Day 12 Juryo openings queue: Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi (4), Daiamami (3), Hatsuyama (3), Daiseizan (2), Shimanoumi (3), Kiryuko (2). Bold = definite, otherwise wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses; one less may well be enough. Shimazuumi is now (just barely) demotable by the numbers, so we should have at least four openings for anyone in Makushita with a strong promotion case.

Day 12 Makushita promotion queue: 1e Wakanosho (4-2), 1w Kazekeno (4-3), 8w Ishizaki (6-0), 4w Hitoshi (5-1), 3w Kusano (4-2), 2e Kotokuzan (3-3), 3w Otsuji (4-2), 4e Miyagi (3-3). The order given is roughly what I'd expect if everyone won. The ones in italics must win to have a shot. I've bolded Kazekeno since I don't think he can end up lower than fourth in the promotion queue. Quite a bit of action tomorrow. Kotokuzan's fate will be decided when he fights Shimazuumi in Juryo. Kusano also has an "exchange" bout, against Daiamami, although he could still luck out even with a loss. Ishizaki must beat Mudoho to claim both the yusho and automatic promotion. Presumably, the others will get their cracks at endangered Juryo incumbents on the final weekend.

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 12:

Already achieved: Ryuden, Shishi, Aonishiki

1 win: none

2 wins: Sadanoumi, Kayo, Asakoryu

3 wins: Shirokuma, Tochitaikai

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

Maku'uchi wins away from safety after day 12:

1 win: Mitakeumi, Nishikifuji*

2 wins:

3 wins: Tamashoho, Tokihayate, Kotoshoho, Kagayaki

Already gone: Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, Kitanowaka

*EDIT: Just realised that there is very likely to be a M18e in March so I think Nishikifuji is almost certainly safe

Edited January 23 by Tigerboy1966

[Reonito 1,456]

38 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

2 wins: Sadanoumi, Kayo, Asakoryu

3 wins: Shirokuma, Tochitaikai

With 4 openings already, several other incumbents with their backs to the wall, and only 3 clear promotions, anyone with KK in upper Juryo should have luck on their side ... and/or, as Asashosakari noted earlier, we could have some very lucky escapes in Makuuchi.

[Asashosakari 19,319]

51 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Presumably, the others will get their cracks at endangered Juryo incumbents on the final weekend.

The torikumi preview for makushita has none of Wakanosho, Miyagi, Hitoshi and Otsuji listed, so they're keeping all options available.

[Reonito 1,456]

Sanyaku:

Among the Ozeki, Hoshoryu (suddenly very much in the yusho race) and Onosato have comfortably cleared kadoban, while erstwhile Yokozuna candidate Kotozakura is one loss away from "probation" after today's last-second reversal against Takerufuji.

Daieisho has now guaranteed that he'll be Sekiwake for a third-straight tournament. Wakamotoharu will be losing that rank, though his henka today staved off a drop out of the named ranks for now. Abi is one win away from locking up a sanyaku spot and quite likely moving up, while Wakatakakage needs to win 2 of his last 3. Kirishima leads the race for the first open spot, followed by Oho. To make his sanyaku debut, the latter probably needs to finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, or hope that a second slot opens up.

[Kachikoshi 32]

13 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Kirishima leads the race for the first open spot, followed by Oho. To make his sanyaku debut, the latter probably needs to finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, or hope that a second slot opens up.

It's also possible that Oho can force open an extra Komusubi slot, but he would probably need 12 wins for this. Hokutofuji got 11 wins from M3w in 2017 and was denied, so that's not enough. 12 wins would require Oho to win his remaining three matches, but he has already fought the whole Sanyaku so this is not that unlikely of a possibility.

[Sumo Spiffy 560]

33 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

It's also possible that Oho can force open an extra Komusubi slot, but he would probably need 12 wins for this. Hokutofuji got 11 wins from M3w in 2017 and was denied, so that's not enough. 12 wins would require Oho to win his remaining three matches, but he has already fought the whole Sanyaku so this is not that unlikely of a possibility.

This makes sense, but given that the sanyaku only doing OK has left the entire joi outside of Atamifuji with a chance at KK, it's feasible we end up with a late 2022 situation where a bunch of guys are lodged near the top without the ability to move very far. It's not going to be that much of a clusterfk, but it could be tight enough for them to bump Oho to K2 on 11-4.

Edited January 23 by Sumo Spiffy

[Oskanohana 261]

11 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Sanyaku:

Among the Ozeki, Hoshoryu (suddenly very much in the yusho race) and Onosato have comfortably cleared kadoban, while erstwhile Yokozuna candidate Kotozakura is one loss away from "probation" after today's last-second reversal against Takerufuji.

Daieisho has now guaranteed that he'll be Sekiwake for a third-straight tournament. Wakamotoharu will be losing that rank, though his henka today staved off a drop out of the named ranks for now. Abi is one win away from locking up a sanyaku spot and quite likely moving up, while Wakatakakage needs to win 2 of his last 3. Kirishima leads the race for the first open spot, followed by Oho. To make his sanyaku debut, the latter probably needs to finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, or hope that a second slot opens up.

I'd like to call this the race to M18e, thank you.

We can't forget Takanosho, who, as M1e, will get a komusubi spot if he gets the last 3 wins and KK, regardless of openings (if my quick survey of the db serves me right). And if Kiri(bayama)shima gets to 10 wins I don't see how they keep him down also (they've never done it before). Funnily enough I can see a scenario where, even with no openings on the current ones (so WMH goes 7-8 and both komusubi get KK), Takanosho ends 8-7, Kirishima goes 9-6 and they promote both to extra komusubi as otherwise it'd look bad comparatively; and in contrast if Takanosho goes MK and Kirishima goes 9-6, they slide Kirishima to M1e as they have been happy to do before. So we might have a multiplication of komusubi on our hands: the incumbents and Takanosho have the keys.

With those bad news out of the way, Koto(nowaka)zakura is strongly (or weakly?) pushing for a Natsu M18w inauguration in the modern era. He'll have to do another stinker next basho. I'm rooting for him against all reason. Lower sanyaku, can you keep it down and not multiplicate, please?

 

13 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Generally, matching up rikishi with different records means that the guy with the worse score should have the better ranking. They seem to aim for a difference of about 15 to 20 ranks as the sweet spot (as was seen in those two 5-0 vs 4-1 pairings), but of course there's not always an appropriate rikishi available in that range. So we've got:

Sd1w Aron
Sd4e Enho
Sd7w Chiyodaigo
Sd8w Noda (can only face Daikosho)
Sd15w Yamato
Sd25e Kirinryu
Sd26e Soma

My guess would be Sd32e Daimasakari - Sd15w Yamato and Sd36w Daikosho - Sd25e Kirinryu, but there's no obvious answer here.

Down in Jd/Jk, Daikisho also needs an opponent and might actually face Ai, who almost certainly would have been his opponent if Ai had won his 5-0 vs 4-1 bout.

T'was close. Thanks for all the insight. Chiyodaigo-Daimasakari and Noda-Daikosho were the chosen pairs. If the Dai's lose, we'll have an 11 or 12 men playoff (depending on what Aron does on his trip to makushita). I might give the slightest of nods to Daimasakari and Noda but no more than 55-45 if any at all. Anyways, we have a decent shot at a six-one senshuraku Sandanme sundown showdown. Make it happen, boys.

[Reonito 1,456]

10 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This makes sense, but given that the sanyaku only doing OK has left the entire joi outside of Atamifuji with a chance at KK, it's feasible we end up with a late 2022 situation where a bunch of guys are lodged near the top without the ability to move very far. It's not going to be that much of a clusterfk, but it could be tight enough for them to bump Oho to K2 on 11-4.

Takanosho and Tobizaru would probably have to win out to create a real logjam, and Takanosho would force a slot in any case if he does so...

[Asashosakari 19,319]

17 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This makes sense, but given that the sanyaku only doing OK has left the entire joi outside of Atamifuji with a chance at KK, it's feasible we end up with a late 2022 situation where a bunch of guys are lodged near the top without the ability to move very far. It's not going to be that much of a clusterfk, but it could be tight enough for them to bump Oho to K2 on 11-4.

This is where I bring out one of my hobby horses to reiterate that trying to force sanyaku to remain smaller than 9 to 10 active* spots is completely unnatural exactly because it's going to lead to constant traffic jams by high maegashira. But of course they'll probably keep doing it again for at least a year until they figure it out, just like back in 2021/22.

* Constantly absent yokozuna like Terunofuji recently or Hakuho/Kakuryu back in the earlier period shouldn't even be counted towards that.

Edited January 23 by Asashosakari

[Sumo Spiffy 560]

13 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Takanosho and Tobizaru would probably have to win out to create a real logjam, and Takanosho would force a slot in any case if he does so...

Not necessarily. They already fought, so they can't knock each other into MK territory, and the joi as a whole should have enough down-banzuke matches (I think) to make a lot of 8-7/7-8 records possible across M1-6. Takerufuji winning out (maybe), or even Kinbozan (unlikely), would make things tighter still. Takanosho and Tobizaru at 7-8 wouldn't alleviate much.

At a glance, I think they could still put 11-4 Oho at M1e in most configurations without screwing anything up. But it wouldn't be a situation where bumping a guy to K2 makes a monster set of over-promotions/under-demotions even worse, which might be enough for them to allow him to go to K2.

Edit: If Wakamotoharu keeps getting Ichiyamamoto-type matches rather than, say, Kotozakura, he could end up 6-9 and complicate things further.

Edited January 23 by Sumo Spiffy

[Oskanohana 261]

13 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

* Constantly absent yokozuna like Terunofuji recently or Hakuho/Kakuryu back in the earlier period shouldn't even be counted towards that.

Ahem-ahem*cough*cough*trrhemm-nosato.

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

With 4 openings already, several other incumbents with their backs to the wall, and only 3 clear promotions, anyone with KK in upper Juryo should have luck on their side ... and/or, as Asashosakari noted earlier, we could have some very lucky escapes in Makuuchi.

Somehow, they have to fill 42 spots in maku'uchi, so yup, it looks like there will be some very lucky lads this time around. Hey Kagayaki, It's not over!

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Summarizing what has largely already been discussed.

Lower division yusho races (Day 11 results, videos)

6-0 Ms8w Ishizaki (Takasago)
5-1 Ms38w Tsushimanada (Sakaigawa)
6-0 Ms44e Mudoho (Otake)

5-1 Sd1w Aron (Nakamura)
5-1 Sd8w Noda (Fujishima)
6-0 Sd32e Daimasakari (Oitekaze)
5-1 Sd35w Daiyusho (Oitekaze) (lost to Sd15w Yamato)
6-0 Sd36w Daikosho (Oitekaze)
5-1 Sd80TD Ikarigata (Isenoumi)

6-0 Jd19w Yago (Oshiogawa)
5-1 Jd37w Raiho (Isegahama)
5-1 Jd47e Hokutoyoshi (Hakkaku)
6-0 Jd60w Sekimoto (Onomatsu)
5-1 Jd89w Ai (Takadagawa) (lost to Jd71e Ojiyama)

6-0 Jk4w Daikisho (Oitekaze)
5-1 Jk13w Gonosho (Takekuma)

Those torikumi went almost as well as the committee could have hoped for...all three large divisions down to exactly two 6-0 rikishi, but they're left with two Oitekaze rikishi in sandanme where a third from a different stable would have made things vastly easier for the final round.

Ishizaki and Mudoho easily prevailed in their respective matches to set up the title bout for the makushita division, in which direct promotion to juryo is at stake for Ishizaki and a high enough ranking to aim for promotion next time for Mudoho. Ishizaki already took down nearly all comers back in November, and he has been just as good (if not better) in Hatsu. Mudoho for his part does have the clear physical advantage, and he has looked very confident in his sumo this month. Still, it's hard to bet against the banzuke here.

Sandanme is down to two Oitekaze rikishi as mentioned - both Daimasakari and Daikosho produced convincing victories against their tough opponents Noda and Ikarigata (no direct trip to makushita for the tsukedashi rookie). Heyamate Daiyusho, on the other hand, fell victim to Yamato's hassotobi trickery and quickly found himself ousted. Top-ranked yusho candidate Aron, finally, was unable to remain in the lead against makushitan Mudoho.

Jonidan saw the expected competitive matchup between Yago and Raiho, but the latter never really found a way to get past the ex-sekitori's defenses and was ultimately driven out of the dohyo, Yago tumbling after him. Earlier in day, Sekimoto survived Hokutoyoshi's typically big tachiai and quickly got around his bigger aite to set up the push-out. And earlier still the race had lost its lowest-ranked contender Ai in a quick defeat by his 4-1 opponent Ojiyama. Yago and Sekimoto will contest the (on paper) heavily lopsided yusho decider in the second-lowest division.

Down in jonokuchi, big favourite Daikisho resorted to henka against newcomer Gonosho, ending the match in the blink of an eye to remain the last man standing unbeaten.

There's the chance of a 6-1 playoff in jonokuchi, but makushita-experienced Daikisho would have to lose to a 34-year-old opponent who was only of mid-sandanme caliber even in his heyday:

Jd84e Wakahizen (5-1) - Jk4w Daikisho (6-0)

Theoretically joining that theoretical playoff are one, two or three of the following four 5-1 rikishi, theoretically (you get the drift...):

Jk14e Goseimaru (4-2) - Jk18e Arise (5-1)
Jk11e Yumenofuji (5-1) - Jk13w Gonosho (5-1)
Jk5e Nakayama (4-2) - Jk15e Wakaikazuchi (5-1)

I commented about the puzzling nature of the first and third pairings elsewhere. I'm going to go with a loss for Arise and wins for Gonosho and Wakaikazuchi here.

Sandanme is a whole 'nother kettle of fish since the two do-beya leaders will actually face very credible opposition:

Sd36w Daikosho (6-0) - Sd8w Noda (5-1)
Sd32e Daimasakari (6-0) Sd7w Chiyodaigo (5-1)

The committee went a little higher in picking the 5-1 opponents than I had guessed, but they're definitely good choices: Noda will surely relish the opportunity to get back into the yusho race after his loss to Daimasakari. Chiyodaigo is an often injured (career line 167-91-91 at present) but not to be underestimated 26-year-old veteran. I haven't seen all of his matches this basho, but in the ones I have he demonstrated some very aggressive, take-no-prisoners type of sumo which one wouldn't expect from someone with his physical history. His experience may well make the difference in what's otherwise a fresh-faced field - Noda and the two Oitekaze boys all started their professional careers just last year.

Should both leaders be dispatched by their opponents, the field would open for another 15 contenders who are battling for 7 or 8 additional playoff spots:

Sd71e Kyokutendo (5-1) - Sd80TD Ikarigata (5-1)
Sd79e Amane (5-1) - Sd70w Takashoki (5-1)
Sd60e Goseizan (5-1) - Sd64w Kotohaguro (5-1)
Sd50e Yonezawaryu (5-1) - Sd48w Tomiyutaka (5-1)
Sd40e Hodaka (5-1) - Sd35w Daiyusho (5-1)
Sd25e Kirinryu (5-1) - Sd26e Soma (5-1)
Sd4e Enho (5-1) - Sd15w Yamato (5-1)
Ms57e Aratakayama (5-1) - Sd1w Aron (5-1)

I'll excuse myself from linking their profiles individually, you can access them all from here. So, a 6-1 playoff featuring 11 or 12 competitors could be in the cards here, which would be only the fourth time ever and first in over 50 years. FWIW, the two 6-0 bouts are slotting in before the Enho-Yamato match, so most of the winning 5-1 guys will not yet know after their respective match if their performance just delivered is ultimately leading them to the playoff.

[Ack! 465]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

Sanyaku: Kirishima leads the race for the first open spot, followed by Oho. To make his sanyaku debut, the latter probably needs to finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, or hope that a second slot opens up.

Oho hasn't faced Kinbozan nor Takerufuji and will almost certainly face the former, if not both.  He is 1-7 against his day 13 opponent, Ura.  To finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, he likely will need to beat all three, a yusho-doten at worst.  That's a tough haul!  The more likely sanyaku scenario for him would involve a Wakatakakage MK, I think.

Edited January 24 by Ack!

[Reonito 1,456]

12 minutes ago, Ack! said:

Oho hasn't faced Kinbozan nor Takerufuji and will almost certainly face the former, if not both.  He is 1-7 against his day 13 opponent, Ura.  To finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, he likely will need to beat all three, a yusho-doten at worst.  That's a tough haul!  The more likely sanyaku scenario for him would involve a Wakatakakage MK, I think.

Right, not to mention that Kirishima would need to lose at least 2 of 3.

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

 Maku'uchi wins away from safety after day 13:

1 win: Mitakeumi

2 wins: Tamashoho, Kagayaki

Demotable but not doomed. Kotoshoho, Tokihayate

Already gone: Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, Kitanowaka

 

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

 Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 13:

Already achieved: Ryuden, Shishi, Aonishiki

1 win: Sadanoumi,

2 wins: Kayo, Asakoryu, Shirokuma,

[Gernobono 466]

28 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

 Maku'uchi wins away from safety after day 13:

1 win: Mitakeumi

I think he already is safe

Additionally if you take a look at the juryo promotion line

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

50 minutes ago, Gernobono said:

I think he already is safe

Additionally if you take a look at the juryo promotion line

I agree but I am doing a very simple, by the numbers, calculation. I'm talking about the rock-solid, undemotable, chill-my-way-through-the-rest-of-the-basho kind of safety.

[Oskanohana 261]

19 hours ago, Oskanohana said:

T'was close. Thanks for all the insight. Chiyodaigo-Daimasakari and Noda-Daikosho were the chosen pairs. If the Dai's lose, we'll have an 11 or 12 men playoff (depending on what Aron does on his trip to makushita). I might give the slightest of nods to Daimasakari and Noda but no more than 55-45 if any at all. Anyways, we have a decent shot at a six-one senshuraku Sandanme sundown showdown. Make it happen, boys.

When it's sandanme, I get them right. Meanwhile in sekitori-toto...

	Oskahanada

 

On M18e news, Kiri(bayama)shima has claimed Wakamotoharu's sanyaku spot for himself as the incumbent lost to that Abi clone that was born before Abi. The former ozeki might lose the sekiwake nod to Oho or maybe even Abi if everything goes tits up from now on, but that doesn't look very likely after 10 wins in a row for him. Kiri(bayama)shima faces sole leader Kinbozan tomorrow and will tie him on the leaderboard with a win, opening even more the yusho race.

Takanosho and Oho will face tomorrow thus eliminating the loser from forced komusubi promotion, but keeping the winner's hopes intact for senshuraku. Oh, and Oho is also fighting for the yusho, mind you.

Abi and Wakatakakage need one more win to stay as komusubi. Wakatakakage has the easy task for him of dispatching Ura (8-0 H2H). Abi gets perennial yusho hopeful Takayasu, but the last 2 times they were paired, Takayasu couldn't find his way to the dohyo. Let's hope he does tomorrow.

[Reonito 1,456]

Day 13 Juryo openings queue: Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi (3), Daiamami (2), Kiryuko (2), Hatsuyama (2), Daiseizan (1), Shimanoumi (1). Bold = definite, otherwise wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses; one less may well be enough. The most endangered incumbents won against promotion contenders 2e Kotokuzan (3-4) and 3w Kusano (4-3), eliminating the former entirely and leaving the latter with a week promotion case. Combined with 8w Ishizaki's loss to Mudoho for the yusho, we may yet have only 3 promotions. Daiseizan and Shimanoumi are almost certainly safe already.

Day 13 Makushita promotion queue: 1e Wakanosho (4-2), 1w Kazekeno (4-3), 4w Hitoshi (5-1), 3w Kusano (4-3), 5w Otsuji (4-2), 4e Miyagi (3-3). I've bolded Hitoshi since I don't think he can end up lower than third in the promotion queue. Tomorrow, he'll try to create a 4th opening when he fights Shimazuumi, who'd be hard to keep with 11 losses.  According to Asashosakari's approach, if Shimazuumi finishes 4-11, that would give a win-loss difference of 8 vs. Kusano, and their rank difference is 7.5, so Kusano should go up in that scenario. Miyagi takes on Daiamami. If he loses, he's out of the promotion picture. If he wins, we are looking at a win-loss difference of at least 6, and a rank difference of 7, which wouldn't be enough, so Miyagi would need Daiamami and Otsuji to lose on senshuraku. Presumably we'll see Wakanosho and Otsuji face the most endangered Juryo guys on Day 15, although the could also be matched head-to-head, with promotion potentially on the line for the latter.