Haru 2025 discussion (results)

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

14 hours ago, Gospodin said:

Tobizaru - Ura looked more like bokh than sumo.

I've never wathched bokh; to me, it looked like a cat fight. 

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Well, it's usually the last two tournaments that count, unless you're Kisenosato ... and no one's been promoted with 24 wins over 2 basho since Asashio in 1959.

If you expect Onosato to have an easy promotion based on what happened to Hoshoryu, you will be disappointed. The void has been filled, proper standards will be back in place.

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

On 23/03/2025 at 09:23, dingo said:

With the joi beckoning, let's see how Aonishiki will handle the stronger opposition and pressure. Oho will have a change to revenge his loss already next basho.

Aonishiki is projected to land well outside the joi next basho.

Edited Monday at 19:30 by Bunbukuchagama

[Jakusotsu 6,037]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

Well, it's usually the last two tournaments that count, unless you're Kisenosato ... and no one's been promoted with 24 wins over 2 basho since Asashio in 1959.

There's no Onosato without Kisenosato.

[Tigerboy1966 1,455]

12 hours ago, Reonito said:

(and kinda hard to see how a 14-1 these days won't be a yusho).

Just checked and I could find only one example since Hakuho's retirement, That was Hoshoryu's 14-1D last November.

[Katooshu 3,317]

11 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Just checked and I could find only one example since Hakuho's retirement, That was Hoshoryu's 14-1D last November.

13-2 J - the match vs Kotozakura wasn't a playoff, even though it acted like one in determining the champion.

Edited Monday at 06:53 by Katooshu

[Dapeng 235]

10 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

If you expect Onosato to have an easy promotion based on what happened to Hoshoryu, you will be disappointed. The void has been filled, proper standards will be back in place.

A 12-3 yusho next basho will probably not enough for Onosato to be promoted, but a 13-2 yusho will. 

[just_some_guy 284]

1 minute ago, Dapeng said:

A 12-3 yusho next basho will probably not enough for Onosato to be promoted, but a 13-2 yusho will. 

Do you mean jun-yusho? Because I think two yusho in a row will do it, regardless of what the yusho record is next basho.

[dingo 1,281]

I tend to subscribe to the idea mentioned sometimes here that the Kyokai likes to see an ascending string of results. Based on that the issue for Onosato could be that a jun-yusho might not be enough unless it's with a great score like 14 wins. I'd love to be proven wrong but I suppose we'll find out next basho provided Onosato can stay in the running. 

[dingo 1,281]

13 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

He lost the yusho on Day 14 against Churanoumi. Was that a clearly superior opponent?

Well, technically he lost it to Onosato... 

[Reonito 1,507]

13 minutes ago, dingo said:

I tend to subscribe to the idea mentioned sometimes here that the Kyokai likes to see an ascending string of results. Based on that the issue for Onosato could be that a jun-yusho might not be enough unless it's with a great score like 14 wins. I'd love to be proven wrong but I suppose we'll find out next basho provided Onosato can stay in the running. 

This is my feeling as well; I guess the only way we find out is if gets a JY with 12-13 wins.

[Katooshu 3,317]

Losing to a couple inferior opponents each basho is a pretty regular thing in sumo, not really the sign of a big choke. Onosato did it too. Often you'll see the losses in 12-3/13-2/14-1 records are not all to the highest ranked rikishi or those with the best records, but also to comparatively non-descript opponents who didn't perform well. 

It was a neck and neck yusho race with probably our next yokozuna - who even without the rank is arguably sumo's top performer now (winner of 3 of the last 6). It was not one in which Takayasu had a big lead and gave it away with a series of poor performances. Even in the loss to Churanoumi he came out blazing, and in the playoff he gave Onosato a scare with the throw attempt near the edge; he didn't run into his chest and immediately collapse as he did in Nov 2022 vs Abi.

I agree he has choked before and his jun-yusho to yusho rate is almost sad to see, but I felt he delivered this time - by the tiniest of margins it just wasn't quite enough to edge the best guy at the moment.

Edited Monday at 18:26 by Katooshu

[Ripe 73]

17 hours ago, Morty said:

 Hell even a 12-3J may be enough based on his last year's performance.

12-3D followed by 12-3Y wasn't enough for Takakeisho... granted that D came as a loss to maegashira ranked rikishi (Abi) so it might depend on who won (and with what score), but I can't see them promoting him with anything short of at least 13 wins. Provided of course Yusho doesn't go to maegashira ranked rikishi... I don't think he get promoted in that case even with 14-1 D!

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

24 minutes ago, Ripe said:

12-3D followed by 12-3Y wasn't enough for Takakeisho... granted that D came as a loss to maegashira ranked rikishi (Abi) so it might depend on who won (and with what score), but I can't see them promoting him with anything short of at least 13 wins. Provided of course Yusho doesn't go to maegashira ranked rikishi... I don't think he get promoted in that case even with 14-1 D!

It seemed like the general takeaway of Hoshoryu's promotion was that for a JY to be considered yusho-equivalent, it has to hit at least 13 wins. Takakeisho had a 12-3J/13-2Y before that D/Y combo and neither did the trick. Hoshoryu flipping which bashos had the 12 and 13 was the only real difference.

What I think bears mentioning is that if it was Onosato instead of Hoshoryu who went 13-2J/12-3Y in November and January, he'd have been promoted and no one would have questioned it. It would have been six 11+ win totals in seven makuuchi bashos, as compared to Hoshoryu's more scattered record. The fact he slipped some during those tournaments changes the equation, but not so much (IMO) that he's unlikely to be promoted with a 13-2 JY in May. If anything, it may depend on who took the title and who beat Onosato along the way. Losing to, say, Kotozakura in a 13-2 playoff after beating him in regulation and only losing to 12-3 Hoshoryu and 10-5 Takayasu (yeah, I'm coping, deal with it) creates a different argument than losing to Abi in a playoff with losses to Oho and Tamawashi.

Edit: Yeah, I know there was also the whole no yokozuna deal with Hoshoryu, but I'm figuring that was the only argument which threaded the needle without straight up saying "I know he really shouldn't get it but we need a yokozuna".

Edited Monday at 18:32 by Sumo Spiffy

[Koorifuu 1,018]

Funny thing is Takayasu was ranked high enough & had the correct schedule for this to kickstart another ozeki run. How... interesting would it be for him to make ozeki again without a yusho?

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

6 hours ago, Dapeng said:

A 12-3 yusho next basho will probably not enough for Onosato to be promoted, but a 13-2 yusho will. 

But that would already be way better than Hoshoryu's run. 

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

26 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Funny thing is Takayasu was ranked high enough & had the correct schedule for this to kickstart another ozeki run. How... interesting would it be for him to make ozeki again without a yusho?

I don't think he is dreaming about another short Ozeki stint now. 

This was after Onosato's cup presentation:

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

2 hours ago, dingo said:

Well, technically he lost it to Onosato... 

...After beating him earlier in "regulation".

The fact is: he was the sole leader with 2 days to go, and he choked the lead. 

[RabidJohn 1,849]

6 hours ago, Dapeng said:

A 12-3 yusho next basho will probably not enough for Onosato to be promoted, but a 13-2 yusho will. 

An Onosato yusho in May will secure his promotion. The score won't really matter, only the fact of back to back yusho.

Recent events suggest it'll likely be either 12-3 or 13-2 with an outside chance of a 14-1. It's not going to be 11-4, as they seem (subjectively) even rarer than zensho.

I don't want him to get an easy ride, and I don't believe he needs one.

[Gospodin 219]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

An Onosato yusho in May will secure his promotion. The score won't really matter, only the fact of back to back yusho.

Recent events suggest it'll likely be either 12-3 or 13-2 with an outside chance of a 14-1. It's not going to be 11-4, as they seem (subjectively) even rarer than zensho.

I don't want him to get an easy ride, and I don't believe he needs one.

If I had some money to waste, I´d put a wager on a 14-1 yusho. Onosato seems to be healthy and his strength is Asashoryu-like (I will remember how he shoved out Daieisho for a long time). He also seems to "have a cool head" (no idea how to properly translate that phrase from my language into English - it´s a mixture of seasoning, resilience and recovery in times of trouble).

[Reonito 1,507]

2 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

It's not going to be 11-4, as they seem (subjectively) even rarer than zensho.

Oh, much rarer. Since 1958: 4 11-4 yusho, 69 zensho. Less extreme if you exclude Yokozuna yusho, but still 11 vs. 3.

Edited Monday at 22:09 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,507]

1 hour ago, Gospodin said:

He also seems to "have a cool head" (no idea how to properly translate that phrase from my language into English - it´s a mixture of seasoning, resilience and recovery in times of trouble).

Works perfectly well in English (usually used as an adjective, "cool-headed").

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Oh, much rarer. Since 1958: 4 11-4 yusho, 69 zensho. Less extreme if you exclude Yokozuna yusho, but still 11 vs. 3.

In this era, it feels like we are way closer to 11-4 than to 15-0.

[Reonito 1,507]

12 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

In this era, it feels like we are way closer to 11-4 than to 15-0.

We've had one of each since Hakuho retired, but a lot more 12's than 14's. It's just hard statistically for no one in a 42-man division to hit 12. Even if you made each bout a coin flip, it's better than 50-50 that someone exceeds 11, and that does not take into account talent disparities and matchmaking choices.

[Bunbukuchagama 768]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

We've had one of each since Hakuho retired, but a lot more 12's than 14's. It's just hard statistically for no one in a 42-man division to hit 12. Even if you made each bout a coin flip, it's better than 50-50 that someone exceeds 11, and that does not take into account talent disparities and matchmaking choices.

An 11-4 yusho was a possibility all the way to senshuraku, and what was the day the last undefeated rikishi lost - 6 or so?