Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2025

[Reonito 1,504]

Let's start with Makushita-Juryo exchanges:

Makushita promotion order: Ms1e Miyagi (3-3) with a win, Ms1w Ishizaki (3-3) with a win, Ms3w Mudoho (4-2), Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) with a win, Ms4w Mita (4-2). If Daiamami wins, he’d leapfrog Mudoho if the latter loses. The same goes for Mita. So anyone on this list could still end up first in the promotion queue, and no one is guaranteed to be higher than 4th. All the obvious matchups among the contenders have taken place, so presumably they'll face endangered Juryo opponents down the stretch.

Juryo demotion queue: J12w Kiryuko (2-5-4), J14e Otsuji (3-8), J2w Kitanowaka (0-0-11), several others who need one or two wins for safety. Kiryuko is gone, though he has bigger things to worry about. Otsuji is already borderline-demotable, and absent Kitanowaka is certainly in danger, though the non-kosho, non-COVID precedents are mixed. Otsuji might be able to afford one more loss depending on the number and strength of promotion cases.

Edited Wednesday at 19:44 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,504]

Juryo-Makuuchi:

Juryo promotion queue: J1e Tamashoho (7-4), J3e Roga (8-3), J2e Kayo (6-5), J6w Hidenoumi (8-3), J5w Fujiseiun (7-4), J14w Kusano (11-0), J3w Tochitaikai (5-6). Tamashoho and Roga look set to make their Juryo sojourns brief. Everyone else is a bit of a long shot, and I don't think we'll come anywhere near the 6 promotions we saw last time. Could rookie Kusano extend his record-breaking run to go undefeated and earn promotion from J14? Only 5 men have gone 15-0 in Juryo, and all earned promotion, but the lowest-ranked was J11e Baruto. Endo is the lowest-ranked promotee; he made it from J13w with a 14-1 yusho.

Makuuchi demotion queue: M13e Nishikifuji (0-2-9), M17w Shirokuma (4-7), M17e Mitakeumi (4-7), M10e Nishikigi (1-10), several others who need one or two wins for safety. The answer to "what would it take to get Nishikifuji demoted?" unfortunately turned out to be injury. And despite that precedent, Shirokuma has little if any room for error. Mitakeumi and Nishikigi are in only slightly better shape. Mitakeumi has spent only two basho in Juryo in his career, and only four below Makuuchi, where he's been a constant presence since his 2015 debut. Are we seeing the end of one of the better sumo careers of the past decade?

Edited Wednesday at 21:34 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,504]

And last but not least, san'yaku:

O1w Kotozakura (6-5) needs to go 2-2 or better from here to save his rank. S1e Daieisho (8-3) has successfully defended his, and it looks like the Ozeki run is on for Natsu.

San'yaku demotion queue: K1w Abi (4-7), S1w Oho (4-7), K1e Kirishima (5-6). Abi is one loss from losing Komusubi, after just holding on to that rank despite a 7-8 score at Hatsu. Oho likewise can't afford any more losses if he wants to stay Sekiwake, but because he got the nod for that rank over Kirishima, both can afford one more loss before dropping back down into the maegashira ranks. It seems highly unlikely that Kirishima could hang on to K1w with a 7-8.

San'yaku demotion queue: M4e Takayasu (9-2), M1w Wakamotoharu (7-4), M1e Wakatakakage (6-5), M6w Takerufuji (9-2), several others with faint hopes. The Onami brothers are gunning for an immediate re-promotion; they currently trail Takayasu, but there could well be room for all three depending on results down the stretch.

[Koorifuu 1,016]

Somehow I see poor Kazeken'o getting the stick again.

[Reonito 1,504]

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Somehow I see poor Kazeken'o getting the stick again.

It's certainly possible, but he'd have to lose at least 3 of 4 and have other results go against him (actually, he'll probably get matched up with promotion contenders, so his future should be largely in his own hands).

Edited Thursday at 03:34 by Reonito

[Tigerboy1966 1,455]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 12:

1 win: Sadanouni, Asakoryu, Kotoshoho

2 wins: Nishikigi, Shonannoumi, Takarafuji, Ryuden, Mitakeumi

3 wins: Shirokuma,

Already gone: Nishikfuji

[Tigerboy1966 1,455]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 12:

Already achieved: Tamashoho

1 win: Roga

2 wins: Kayo,

3 wins: Tochitaikai, Fujiseiun, Hidenoumi, Kusano

[Asashosakari 19,589]

Mudoho - Kyokukaiyu Day 14. 

[Koorifuu 1,016]

The analysis below presumes the analysis that makushita joi's movement is a de facto extension of the juryo ranks, i.e. ms1 = J15 and a +1 score puts them in J14, to be correct.

The virtual ranks within brackets correspond to what rank they compute to, they might be non-existent.

Sekitori Barrier

Certainly demotable Juryo (definitely compute to >J14)

Kiryuko J12w 2-5 (J23)
Kitanowaka J2 0-0 (J17)
Otsuji J14 4-8 (J15~J21)

Possibly demotable Juryo (could go either >J14 or <J14)

Mitoryu J6e 3-9 (J9~J15, needs 1 win)
Nabatame J5e 2-6-4 (J10~J16, needs 1 win)
Tsurugisho J11e 5-7 (J10~J16, needs 1 win)
Wakanosho J11w 5-7 (J10~J16, needs 1 win)
Kazekeno J13w 6-6 (J10~J16, needs 1 win)
Hokutofuji J8e 3-9 (J11~J17, needs 2 wins)

Certainly promotable makushita (definitely compute to >J14)

N/A

Possibly promotable makushita (could go either >J14 or <J14)

Mudoho ms3w 4-2 (J14~J16)
Miyagi ms1e 3-3 (J14 or bust)
Ishizaki ms1w 3-3 (J14 or bust)
Daiamami ms2e 3-3 (J15 or bust)
Mita ms4w 4-2 (J15~J17)

---------------------------

The situation looks pretty dire, so they might have go down to those virtual J16/J17 in order to fill in the last few spots. I can see Kitanowaka surviving.

Edited Thursday at 19:42 by Koorifuu

[Reonito 1,504]

27 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Mudoho - Kyokukaiyu Day 14. 

And no day 13 crossover bouts, interesting.

[Tigerboy1966 1,455]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 13:

Already achieved: Tamashoho, Roga

1 wins: Kayo

2 wins: Tochitaikai, Fujiseiun, Hidenoumi

Edited Friday at 07:09 by Tigerboy1966
copyedit

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

Sad to say Kusano won't be in the running anymore

[Tigerboy1966 1,455]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 13:

1 win:  Shonannoumi, Ryuden, Mitakeumi

2 wins: Nishikigi, Takarafuji

Already demotable: Shirokuma,

Already down: Nishikfuji

Edited Friday at 14:55 by Tigerboy1966
fix day

[Koorifuu 1,016]

Juryo <-> Makushita

Day 13 updates in red below.

19 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

[After Day 12]

Certainly demotable Juryo (definitely compute to >J14)

Kiryuko J12w 2-5 (J23)
Kitanowaka J2 0-0 (J17)
Otsuji J14 4-9 (J17~J21)

Possibly demotable Juryo (could go either >J14 or <J14)

Mitoryu J6e 3-10 (J11~J15, needs 1 win)
Nabatame J5e 2-7-4 (J12~J16, needs 1 win)
Tsurugisho J11e 6-7 (J10~J14) SAFE
Wakanosho J11w 6-7 (J10~J14)  SAFE
Kazekeno J13w 6-7 (J12~J16, needs 1 win)
Hokutofuji J8e 3-10 (J13~J17, needs 2 wins)

None of the makushita remotely in contention were in action.

Edited Friday at 14:32 by Koorifuu

[Koorifuu 1,016]

Tomorrow (Day 14):

Nabatame (J5e 2-7-4) vs Mitoryu (J6e 3-10)
Hokutofuji (J8e 3-10) vs Miyagi (ms1e 3-3)
Ishizaki (ms1w 3-3) vs Kazekeno (J13w 6-7)
-
Kyokukaiyu (ms9e 4-2) vs Mudoho (ms3w 4-2)

----

One incumbent is guaranteed to be safe after the first bout of the list above. The loser will need a win on senshuraku, but depending on the promotion scenario, could be safe despite demotable numbers.

Hokutofuji v Miyagi is a quasi exchange bout: Hokutofuji is demotable if he loses, Miyagi promotable if he wins.

Ishizaki is promotable if he wins. Kazekeno is safe if he wins.

Mudoho is already a candidate to fill in a gap, but will become promotable by the numbers if he wins.

Edited Friday at 14:41 by Koorifuu

[Reonito 1,504]

And it looks like they're holding Daiamami and Mita in reserve for day 15 depending on how day 14 plays out.

[Reonito 1,504]

I figured I might as well copy over my latest Tachiai post for completeness and ease of reading:

Ozeki: with his 8th win, Kotozakura has cleared kadoban. Combined with Onosato’s 10 wins, this means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one or two more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously.

Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-4) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (5-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by winning out. Kirishima and Abi both sport 6-7 records at Komusubi and will need to win out to hold rank. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, regardless of whether or not any slots come open. Yusho race leader M4e Takayasu (11-2) should also have an undeniable promotion claim unless he collapses down the stretch. The other Onami brother, M1w Wakamotoharu (7-6) needs one more win to have a shot, though his chances will depend on other results. Others still in the conversation are M6w Takerufuji (9-4) and M7w Tamawashi (9-4).

Makuuchi/Juryo: The only certain demotion is M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-11). M17w Shirokuma (5-8) is on the brink, and even winning out won’t necessarily save him. M12e Takarafuji (3-10) and M10e Nishikigi (2-11) both need two wins for safety, while Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Shonannoumi need one apeice. Everyone else is guaranteed a spot in the top division in May, but the number of exchanges is still highly uncertain. J1e Tamashoho (8-5) and J3e Roga (9-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi. J2e Kayo (8-5) will earn a top-division debut with one more win, and may have already done enough depending on how the demotion candidates fare down the stretch. Also in the running are J6w Hidenoumi (9-4), J3w Tochitaikai (7-6), and J5w Fujiseiun (8-5). His loss to Kayo probably knocked out record-setting rookie and last man in the division J14w Kusano (12-1) out of the promotion picture; he can console himself with a Juryo yusho and a spot much higher on the banzuke in May.

Juryo/Makushita: Little has been decided here. The promotion order is roughly as follows: Ms1e Miyagi (3-3) if he wins, Ms1w Ishizaki (3-3) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-2), Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2). Anyone on this list could still end up first in the promotion queue, or low enough to miss out. On the other side of the line between heaven and hell, injury victim J12w Kiryuko is certain to go down, J14e Otsuji (4-9) is all-but-certain to join him, and absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on the number and strength of the promotion cases. J8e Hokutofuji (3-10) needs one more win and possibly two in order to avoid dropping from the sekitori ranks for the first time since his Juryo debut in 2016. Nabatame and Kazekeno are the other endangered incumbents; they’ll be safe with one more win. Tomorrow, Miyagi and Ishizaki will fight crossover bouts against Hokutofuji and Kazekeno, respectively, while Mudoho will try to strengthen his promotion claim against Ms9e Kyokukaiyu. Daiamami and Mita’s final bouts will take place on senshuraku, with their opponents being decided based on how the promotion/demotion picture looks after tomorrow’s action.

[Oskanohana 293]

Funnily enough, Ms6w Akua can end up 3rd in the promotion queue if the 3 top 3-3's from Ms lose their bouts, and he would do it even with a loss on his last match (against Asahakuryu?).

With Kiryuko toast and Otsuji esentially done also unless he turns the switch around and gets that fringe 6-9 record to have a chance to stay, it may depend on their decision about Kitanowaka. If he must go down as punishment for not fighting with an injury, that's 3 slots and the Ms5 wall would have to be torn down to make room for him as a sekitori.

Come on, we need to see him the full 15 days. He has to extend the kakenage win record if he doesn't want the old man with the bow to catch him. Those jonidan fellas fall way too easily...

Edited Saturday at 00:21 by Oskanohana

[Reonito 1,504]

38 minutes ago, Oskanohana said:

With Kiryuko toast and Otsuji esentially done also unless he turns the switch around and gets that fringe 6-9 record to have a chance to stay, it may depend on their decision about Kitanowaka. If he must go down as punishment for not fighting with an injury, that's 3 slots and the Ms5 wall would have to be torn down to make room for him as a sekitori.

I don't love the "invisible line", but to be fair he did only fight Tochimaru in the promotion zone. And the line has been crossed very rarely, even in recent cases like this when Kazekeno was operationally in the top 10 and Daishoho had a rank-record combo that would normally send someone down.

[Asashosakari 19,589]

It's not looking great for Kitanowaka regardless of whether they consider 0-0-15 a "must" demotion anyway, since all four remaining demotion contenders calculate ahead of him even if they lose both remaining matches (and even Otsuji could still go ahead with two wins).

[Tigerboy1966 1,455]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 14:

Already achieved: Tamashoho, Roga, Kayo

1 win: Tochitaikai, Fujiseiun

Edited Saturday at 07:38 by Tigerboy1966
copyedit

[Tigerboy1966 1,455]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 14:

1 win:  Ryuden, Mitakeumi, Nishikigi

Already demotable: Takarafuji

Already down: Nishikfuji, Shirokuma

Edited Saturday at 08:18 by Tigerboy1966
copyedit

[Asashosakari 19,589]

Heh, Otsuji vs Mita tomorrow. J14e 6-9 would actually calculate ahead of Ms4w 4-3...

[Asashosakari 19,589]

Scenarios for tomorrow's juryo/makushita decisions:

 

Scenario 1
Otsuji def. Mita     Hokutofuji def. Daiamami     Mitoryu wins

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   15.0   <  15+1 = 16   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  6-9      4.5   >   3+1 = 4    Mita      Ms4w  4-3
Hokutofuji  J8e   4-11    safe                  Akua irrelevant

Scenario 2
Otsuji def. Mita     Hokutofuji def. Daiamami     Mitoryu loses

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   15.0   <  15+1 = 16   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  6-9      4.5   >   3+1 = 4    Mita      Ms4w  4-3
Mitoryu     J6e   3-12    safe                  Akua irrelevant
Hokutofuji  J8e   4-11    safe

Scenario 3
Otsuji def. Mita     Daiamami def. Hokutofuji     Mitoryu wins

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   13.5   <  15+1 = 16   Daiamami  Ms2e  4-3
Hokutofuji  J8e   3-12     9.5   <   9+1 = 10   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  6-9      4.5   >   3+1 =  4   Mita      Ms4w  4-3

Scenario 4
Otsuji def. Mita     Daiamami def. Hokutofuji     Mitoryu loses

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   13.5   <  15+1 = 16   Daiamami  Ms2e  4-3
Hokutofuji  J8e   3-12     9.5   <   9+1 = 10   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  6-9      4.5   >   3+1 =  4   Mita      Ms4e  4-3
Mitoryu     J6e   3-12    safe                  Akua irrelevant

Scenario 5
Mita def. Otsuji     Hokutofuji def. Daiamami     Mitoryu wins

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  5-10     4.5   <   5+3 =  8   Mita      Ms4w  5-2
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   15.0   <  15+1 = 16   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3
Hokutofuji  J8e   4-11    12.5   >   7+5 = 12   Akua      Ms6w  6-1

Scenario 6
Mita def. Otsuji     Hokutofuji def. Daiamami     Mitoryu loses

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  5-10     4.5   <   5+3 =  8   Mita      Ms4w  5-2
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   15.0   <  15+1 = 16   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3
Mitoryu     J6e   3-12    14.5   >   9+5 = 14   Akua      Ms6w  6-1
Hokutofuji  J8e   4-11    safe

Scenario 7
Mita def. Otsuji     Daiamami def. Hokutofuji     Mitoryu wins

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  5-10     2.0   <   5+1 =  6   Daiamami  Ms2e  4-3
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   16.0   <  15+3 = 18   Mita      Ms4w  5-2
Hokutofuji  J8e   3-12     9.5   <   9+1 = 10   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3

Scenario 8
Mita def. Otsuji     Daiamami def. Hokutofuji     Mitoryu loses

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff        Up Queue
Kiryuko     J12w  2-5-8    2.5   <  11+1 = 14   Miyagi    Ms1e  4-3
Otsuji      J14e  5-10     2.0   <   5+1 =  6   Daiamami  Ms2e  4-3
Kitanowaka  J2w   kyujo   16.0   <  15+3 = 18   Mita      Ms4w  5-2
Hokutofuji  J8e   3-12     9.5   <   9+1 = 10   Mudoho    Ms3w  4-3
Mitoryu     J6e   3-12    14.5   >   9+5 = 14   Akua      Ms6w  6-1

Assumes my/our current working hypothesis of straight rank/win comparisons, and treats Akua as relevant only if all top 5 KKs are able to earn promotion. It turns out not to matter, Akua calculates worse than the appropriate comparison rikishi in all such scenarios. His only chance would be if they actually allow him to jump over Mudoho/Mita, which is something we haven't observed happening.

Mudoho would be safe based on these calculations. He's currently 2nd in line and can "beat" the 2nd-worst demotion candidate (Kitanowaka), and while wins by Daiamami and Mita could push him down to 3rd or 4th, each such win would create an additional juryo rikishi who also compares unfavourably to Mudoho. Consequently, if all this is actually correct then both juryo vs makushita matchups are straight exchange bouts. Mitoryu is safe in any case even though he could finish worse than Hokutofuji in demotion priority.

Edited Saturday at 14:24 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,504]

Day 14 wrap-up:

Ozeki: Kotozakura has cleared kadoban and Onosato has 11 wins, which means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously, although 12 wins at Natsu is going to be a tough ask. And of course, an Onosato yusho would trigger a tsuna run, although given the low winning score, it would have to be followed up by a yusho at Natsu: no “equivalent” is likely to do it.

Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-5) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (6-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by beating [checks notes] M15e Aonishiki (10-4) on the last day. The young Ukrainian’s 21st birthday celebration tomorrow will be sweetened by a special prize. K1w Abi (6-8) will be a maegashira at Natsu; he gets to play spoiler tomorrow against yusho race co-leader M4e Takayasu (11-3). K1e Kirishima (7-7) will have to beat [checks notes again] M18e Tokihayate (10-4) to stay Komusubi. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, replacing Abi. The other men in contention for promotion to the named ranks are the aforementioned Takayasu and M1w Wakamotoharu (8-6). If Oho and Kirishima both lose, then it’s straightforward—the two maegashira fill their slots. Otherwise, we’ll have to consider whether their records are strong enough to force open extra slots.

Makuuchi/Juryo: The demotion of M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-12) is certain, and I don’t see any way M17w Shirokuma (5-9) can survive. M12e Takarafuji (3-11) would need a win and a lot of help from other results. Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Nishikigi ought to be safe if they win; none are paired up. We have three definite promotions: J1e Tamashoho (8-6) and J3e Roga (10-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi, and J2e Kayo (9-5) will make his top-division debut after coming close in the past two basho. J3w Tochitaikai (8-6) and J5w Fujiseiun (9-5) can still reach promotable records by winning tomorrow. J6w Hidenoumi (9-5) is not completely out of the picture, and neither is J14w Kusano (13-1) if he can beat Fujiseiun.

Juryo/Makushita: Ms1e Miyagi (4-3) won his crossover bout with J8e Hokutofuji (3-11) and is guaranteed his sekitori debut. Ms1w Ishizaki (3-4) lost to Kazekeno, so he’s out of the running. The remaining promotion order is as follows: Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-3), Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he loses. The only certain demotion is injury victim J12w Kiryuko, who’ll be replaced by Miyagi. J14e Otsuji (5-9) faces Mita tomorrow in what is likely an exchange bout, and Daiamami will try to seal Hokutofuji’s demotion. Absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on other results. Everyone else is safe. So we’ll have anywhere from one to four exchanges. The scenarios are complicated, as detailed by Asashosakari above.

Edited Saturday at 19:59 by Reonito