Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2025

[Gurowake 4,096]

  On 23/03/2025 at 01:24, Bunbukuchagama said:

Scores must have been abysmal.

Daieisho was getting an extra sanyaku spot no matter what rank he was put at; the lower sanyaku all had KKs.  Pretty much everyone assumed it was going to be Sekiwake due to the last 13-2 at M1, but that it was Komusubi didn't change the number of sanyaku, so it really didn't affect scores any more than just getting him wrong.

[Gurowake 4,096]

Kusano(14-1 J14w)	J1	Hidenoumi(10-5 J6w)
Mitakeumi(6-9 M17e)	J2	Fujiseiun(9-6 J5w)
Takarafuji(3-12 M12e)	J3	Shirokuma(5-10 M17w)
Hakuyozan(9-6 J8w)	J4	Wakaikari(8-7 J9e)
Kagayaki(4-11 J1w)	J5	Hitoshi(9-6 J12e)
Daiseizan(8-7 J10e)	J6	Nishikifuji(0-2 M13e)
Shimanoumi(8-7 J10w)	J7	Tomokaze(7-8 J7e)
Tsurugisho(8-7 J11e)	J8	Kotoeiho(7-8 J7w)
Shiden(4-11 J4e)	J9	Oshoumi(4-7 J4w)
Tohakuryu(7-8 J9w)	J10	Hatsuyama(8-7 J13e)
Kazekeno(8-7 J13w)	J11	Mitoryu(4-11 J6e)
Wakanosho(7-8 J11w)	J12	Nabatame(3-8 J5e)
Miyagi(4-3 Ms1e)	J13	Daiamami(4-3 Ms2e)
Mita(5-2 Ms4w)	J14	Mudoho(4-3 Ms3w)

 

Last basho Shirokuma was level with Tamashoho if you consider there to be one full rank extra space between divisions, so it made sense he got promoted, though less sense that he was put over Tokihayate except for what seems like a general desire now of dropping 7-8s at least one place only a few basho after leaving 6-9s with no demotion.  This basho we have Kusano and Hidenoumi level with Asakoryu and Nishikigi by the numbers if you don't add some extra space between the divisions.  If this was Juryo<>Makushita, we'd see such a tie go to the promotees (in just about the only way in which they favor Makushita promotees), but will they do the same with Makuuchi<>Juryo?

I'm not really sure what to do with the J7-J8 area.  We have 7-8s that by the numbers could keep their rank, but there are rikishi reasonably close that could make them get at least a one-spot demotion.  I also felt Tsurugisho over Tomokaze was a bit too far to go given the latter already had a one-spot demotion, but at the same time keeping the two 7-8s together splitting the 8-7s seemed stupid, so I went with what's shown.

 

[Asashosakari 19,590]

I have to wonder if there's some sort of game of chicken going on behind the scenes right now...should, say, Mitakeumi decide to retire, Hokutofuji might survive in juryo making a retirement of his own unnecessary (assuming he's even considering it, of course).

I'm kinda bummed that Otsuji didn't beat Mita. Not because I have anything against the latter, but I really would have liked to see that J14e 6-9 vs Ms4w 4-3 decision play out. Now it's another basho without any useful data points for or against the hypothesis - unless Mitakeumi does retire and we get to see how they decide Hokutofuji vs Akua.

(But maybe I'm getting completely ahead of myself here and they throw a curveball like not exchanging Kitanowaka and Mudoho... Incidentally, if both Kitanowaka and Hokutofuji have to go, Hakkaku-beya will be without sekitori for the first time since Haru 1997.)

Edited Sunday at 18:45 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,507]

San'yaku demotions: Abi, Oho.

San'yaku promotion order: Takayasu, WTK, WMH. With Kirishima surving, WMH is out of luck unless they make an extra K slot for him. Kirishima to Sekiwake?

Makuuchi demotion order: Nishikifuji, Shirokuma, Takarafuji, Mitakeumi, Nishikigi, Asakoryu.

Makuuchi promotion order: Roga, Kayo, Tamashoho, Tochitaikai, Kusano, Hidenoumi, Fujiseiun. I don't see any way for Mitakeumi to stay at the expense of Tochitaikai. After that, it's not clear, though Fujiseiun should be out of it unless they decided to jump him over Kusano, who is ahead by the numbers, due to the large difference in rank.

Juryo demotion order: Kiryuko, Otsuji, Kitanowaka, Hokutofuji.

Juryo promotion order: Miyagi, Daiamami, Mita, Mudoho. It's really hard to see them keeping Hokutofuji. An absence from J2 is not an auto-demotion, but Mudoho's case ought to be good enough to exchange him with Kitanowaka.

[Reonito 1,507]

  On 23/03/2025 at 18:42, Asashosakari said:

I really would have liked to see that J14e 6-9 vs Ms4w 4-3 decision play out

The fact that they set up that bout argues that Otsuji would have stayed, but as we know, the torikumi and banzuke committees don't always see eye-to-eye.

[Asashosakari 19,590]

Too-early attempt at the makushita-joi:

Hokutofuji (J8e 3-12)    Ms1  Akua (Ms6w 6-1)
Kitanowaka (J2w 0-0-15)  Ms2  Oshoryu (Ms28e 7-0 Y)
Otsuji (J14e 5-10)       Ms3  Dewanoryu (Ms10e 6-1)
Kotokuzan (Ms6e 4-3)     Ms4  Ishizaki (Ms1w 3-4)
Kyokukaiyu (Ms9e 5-2)    Ms5  Tochimusashi (Ms9w 5-2)
Daishoho (Ms7w 4-3)      Ms6

Very crowded, unless we do get a sekitori retirement. Ms1 3-4 getting punted out of the top 5 ranks hasn't happened since 2011, but Ms7 4-3 not getting in also hasn't happened since 2017. (And Ms9 5-2 not getting in has happened exactly never.) Dropping Otsuji straight past Ms5 doesn't look like an option - at least it's my impression that any 5-10 is treated as superior to any 3-4 these days, so he should have the inside track at least on Ishizaki.

[Reonito 1,507]

The middle portion of the maegashira ranks looks rather unlucky...

[Yamanashi 3,888]

  On 23/03/2025 at 19:00, Reonito said:

San'yaku demotions: Abi, Oho.

San'yaku promotion order: Takayasu, WTK, WMH. With Kirishima surving, WMH is out of luck unless they make an extra K slot for him. Kirishima to Sekiwake?

Luckily the banzuke is in Japanese.  In English, the average shikona length is going to go through the roof!

[Gurowake 4,096]

  On 23/03/2025 at 19:00, Reonito said:

Kirishima to Sekiwake?

Doesn't seem likely to me.  I think if Takayasu lost it would be closer, but given that they don't seem to have as much deference to Komusubi when it comes to Sekiwake promotion compared to maegashira as they might once have, and that Takayasu actually had a harder schedule by some metrics, I personally have little doubt Takayasu gets it.  But what do I know anymore?

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

  On 23/03/2025 at 21:28, Gurowake said:

Doesn't seem likely to me.  I think if Takayasu lost it would be closer, but given that they don't seem to have as much deference to Komusubi when it comes to Sekiwake promotion compared to maegashira as they might once have, and that Takayasu actually had a harder schedule by some metrics, I personally have little doubt Takayasu gets it.  But what do I know anymore?

I guess it depends on how they perceive someone being at komusubi vs. sekiwake if they're not on an ozeki run. Takayasu deserves it, but if the committee figures K/S isn't much different for these guys, I imagine they'd be more likely to make sure Kiri gets a promotion and then stick Papa Bear at K1e.

Wakamotoharu's the much juicier question, considering how compacted the middle of the banzuke is. They made some wild decisions (relative to precedent) to fix things when the joi was a disaster a couple years ago, but will they do the same to ease pressure further down?