Invitation to Play GTB - May 2025 - 318 entries - good luck everyone!

[Asashosakari 19,657]

Just now, Reonito said:

This is what I entered.

Thanks for confirming; I was slightly confused before because...

17 minutes ago, Reonito said:

reorders Oshoma-Ura-Tobizaru (5 points)

...if I'm not mistaken that's just 4 points of difference to Gurowake's version. 

 

[Reonito 1,519]

12 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

...if I'm not mistaken that's just 4 points of difference to Gurowake's version. 

D'oh! I mentally moved Oshoma ahead of the other two rather than swapping him with Tobizaru. My logic was that Oshoma computes half a rank ahead of the other two, and last time they went with the numbers in most such instances, and I believe there was a recent case in which a 7-8 and a 6-9 were tied, and they opted to drop the 7-8 one rank and over-demote the 6-9 by half a rank. Hoping for consistency 

[Sumo Spiffy 580]

I ended up going with the -3.5 for Kinbo and Atami, knowing it's much more of a coin flip with -4 than I would have ever imagined possible, but -4.5... if that happens, we'll have to rethink some core assumptions a lot of us have about their decision-making.

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

D'oh! I mentally moved Oshoma ahead of the other two rather than swapping him with Tobizaru. My logic was that Oshoma computes half a rank ahead of the other two, and last time they went with the numbers in most such instances, and I believe there was a recent case in which a 7-8 and a 6-9 were tied, and they opted to drop the 7-8 one rank and over-demote the 6-9 by half a rank. Hoping for consistency 

Oho and Ura, one year ago. Oho got the regular demotion from 3e to 4e, and Ura went from 1e to 4w.

Edited 3 hours ago by Sumo Spiffy

[Asashosakari 19,657]

Some preview-type remarks...

3 hours ago, Wamahada said:

Line is dead - again more than 300 guesses

316 altogether.

524 players are on the GTB ranking ahead of Natsu basho. By recent participation status:

                    ranked  playing  kyujo
Active last basho:     359      235    124
Kosho  last basho:      23        4     19
Multiple absences:     142       12    130

The kyujo players include last basho's yusho winner Isokiho, one of 14 Natsu absences from the top 100. 

65 unranked players have entered, including - as far as I can tell - 62 new players plus three returnees: boosiv, Ivar (unless it's a coincidentally identical name?), and Ulsimitsuki (albeit seemingly misspelled as Ulsimituski).

In exchange for these incoming players, 20 are set to fall off the rankings by losing their last countable score.

The provisional top 20 after removing the scores from a year ago that will be replaced by the Natsu results (actual pre-Natsu positions and scores in brackets, including all remaining top 20 players):

 1 Asset           4.471  ( 1 / 5.686)
 2 Asashosakari    4.445  ( 2 / 5.599)     2
 3 Bunbukuchagama  4.363  ( 3 / 5.574)     6
 4 CaptSmarta$$    4.332  ( 5 / 5.481)     7
 5 Kale            4.326  ( 4 / 5.509)     8
 6 Goshobiyama     4.324  ( 6 / 5.479)     8
 7 Cheesofuji      4.314  ( 7 / 5.462)     8
 8 Duden           4.304  (14 / 5.370)     9
 9 Hisui           4.304  (11 / 5.394)     9
10 Toshishugisha   4.278  (13 / 5.386)    10
11 Akakyoryu       4.255  (21 / 5.314)    11
12 Kaito           4.246  (16 / 5.353)    12
13 Kachikoshi      4.240  (10 / 5.414)    12
14 Tyerenex        4.236  (23 / 5.300)    12
15 Kobashi         4.208  ( 8 / 5.442)    14
16 Pepenohana      4.197  (25 / 5.268)    14
17 TochiYESshin    4.188  (19 / 5.326)    15
18 Sugakusha       4.187  ( 9 / 5.418)    15
19 Beeftank        4.185  (12 / 5.387)    15
20 Zelerny         4.171  (26 / 5.249)    15
...
21 Reonito         4.166  (17 / 5.342)    16
23 Papayasu        4.135  (18 / 5.328)    17
25 Purichu Ruyaru  4.118  (15 / 5.361)    18
26 Chiyonosawa     4.115  (20 / 5.325)    18

Players with a better provisional than actual ranking are getting to drop a relatively weak result from their totals, players who are worse provisionally are defending a relatively strong score. The final column shows how many approximate game points each player has to make up on the current #1 in order to take over the top spot after Natsu. (Based on an assumed mean score of 50 points = 0.020 ranking points per game point, so these are just estimates.)

12 players who are currently carrying a single zero on their ranking tally are set to replace it with a countable score and will see their ranking position improve significantly (current rank > provisional rank):

Kotokishi (106 > 43)
Hashibamiyama (108 > 46)
Barutonoumi (111 > 49)
Wakatakasake (128 > 81)
Hobbobgob (133 > 97)
Ardonite (132 > 99)
matrix (139 > 114)
AoiyamaFan (146 > 118)
asanosanpo (163 > 136)
Modra (170 > 146)
Kcramsib (176 > 157)
kostuek (183 > 165)

On the other hand, 3 players who currently have the full six countable scores are set to pick up a zero by missing both Haru and Natsu (current rank > approximate next rank...the provisional rank makes no sense for these players):

Krakel (41 > 140)
Miwabe (69 > 163)
Kotononami (129 > 184)