What sort of Yokozuna will be Asashoryu ?

[Manekineko 200]

Zenjimoto-zeki wrote:

  Quote

Btw, if Asashoryu really is going to "emulate Chiyonofuji", then we can add another 6-7 Yusho to whatever your vote total was -  for Yaocho!

OK, I cannot endure any longer: I want all the sordid details about Chiyonofuji and yaocho! (He was before my time...)

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

It's obvious some of the more sceptic of us, such as me, and Kaikitsune, probably Doitsuyama and others have tried to downplay the most fantastic numbers, thereby guessing on some 8-12 yusho or less. It also seems the poll now shows most believe in 10-19 yusho and the next pack believes in 5-9.

But are we too careful? I couldn't help thinking a bit more on this, and I wonder if my usual sceptical conservative way of thinking might have fooled me this time. And since I will be just as wrong when predicting 10 yusho when he gets 25, that I'll be if I predict 25 yusho when he gets 10, I might actually revise my opinion after having thought it through.

Let me elaborate:

There are a lot of yusho at stake. Over a period of 10 years there are only a limited amount of rikishi who can really compete for the yusho, and most of them will get at most 3 or 4 yusho, while a few yokozunas will amount more, say 8 and more. The numbers of the most successful yokozuna will depend on how much better he is than the rest and for how long a period he stays healthy.

Since the 1960:s, that is since the 6-basho-a-year system was introduced (1958), the eras have roughly spanned ten years, with a first part with a very dominating yokozuna (although often a pair of yokozunas dominating at any given time, one of them more succesful than the other) and a second part, where the dominance of those from the first part have faded, with a new pair or threesome yokozunas (whom I often see as interera yokozunas, since they have their greatest period when the rikishi defining the era are vaning) from the same generation, but with more staying power and more stable health (at least up to the time of them coming through). Often yokozunas who came a bit late for the first part of the era and didn't come through until injuries hampered the most dominating of the first part. They are also often still there when the next era starts, although they seldom stay long.

In this I think of Taiho (dominating) and Kashiwado of the early 60s with Kitanofuji and Tamanoumi as the interera yokozunas.

Kitanoumi (dominating) and Wajima of the 70s with names such as Mienoumi and Wakanohana as interera yokozunas.

Chiyonofuji (dominating) along with Takanosato and to some extent Hokutoumi of the 80s, with Asahifuji and to some extent still Hokutoumi as the interera yokozunas.

Finally Takanohana (dominating) and Akebono of the 90s with Musashimaru as the most dominant interera yokozuna.

Now, while 4 times is hardly statistically binding, it is a fact that someone will have to win a lot of the yusho, and there are 60 of them over a ten-year period. This is normally divided between some 6-7 yokozunas minus maybe ten to Ozekis and others never reaching yokozuna (the exact figures might be wrong here, since I don't check the data right now but only write). In most normal cases, there will be one yokozuna who wins the most, and that means some 20 or more. This has been the case of the dominant yokozuna in all four eras above, since the beginning of the 6-basho-a-year system.

So who will it be this time?

This is where I think Asashoryu is a big candidate, because he shares features of earlier dominating yokozunas mentioned above.

He is young (Chiyonofuji doesn't fit this description, but on the other hand shared all the features of a young yokozuna, with a career of some 10 years from yokozuna debut).

He comes in a time where the era should reasonably start (excellent to become yokozuna when the old dominating one retires...).

He has shown he has been healthy when others have been injury prone.

He is also powerful, and has a frame to grow in (which goes for all the other dominating yokozunas with the possible exception of Kitanoumi who was big already when he came through as far as I remember).

There are no one else that we can see right now to be the domination yokozuna instead of Asashoryu.

With this in mind, I'm willing to change my guess. Asashoryu will come to some 20 yusho or more. I think the yusho will be more evenly divided as more rikishi becomes stronger, but there doesn't seem to be 4 or 5 yokozuna candidates out there to take some 8 yusho each, so 20 yusho sounds far from overestimation of Asashoryu's yusho numbers. I think I'm actually still quite conservative with those numbers.

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

Interesting analysis, as always, Yubiquitoyama-zeki.

I was checking some statistics, mostly

here.  It is worthwhile noting that Asashoryu holds that record for least basho before promotion to ozeki (22).  However, even though the page hasn't been updated to reflect Asashoryu's yokozuna promotion, we know he won't be the youngest yokozuna.  Kitanoumi and Takanohana II were both younger when promoted.

Even Chyionofuji, which you mention as a relatively late promotion, was only 26 years when promoted to yokozuna, making him the 10th youngest to reach that rank.  

There are some notable yokozuna, that you classify as dominating in your analysis, who achieved the promotion later than Chyionofuji: Taiho, Kashiwado, Takanosato.  So 3 out of the 6 you mention as dominating yokozuna.  

I think as you said, we don't have enough statistics to make a valid mathematical argument.

Which is why I still stick with my gut feeling, that Asashoryu will be a very good yokozuna, but will NOT get 20 yusho.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

  Yoavoshimaru said:

Interesting analysis, as always, Yubiquitoyama-zeki.

I was checking some statistics, mostly

here.  It is worthwhile noting that Asashoryu holds that record for least basho before promotion to ozeki (22).  However, even though the page hasn't been updated to reflect Asashoryu's yokozuna promotion, we know he won't be the youngest yokozuna.  Kitanoumi and Takanohana II were both younger when promoted.

Even Chyionofuji, which you mention as a relatively late promotion, was only 26 years when promoted to yokozuna, making him the 10th youngest to reach that rank.  

There are some notable yokozuna, that you classify as dominating in your analysis, who achieved the promotion later than Chyionofuji: Taiho, Kashiwado, Takanosato.  So 3 out of the 6 you mention as dominating yokozuna.

Just a couple of comments:

Asashoryu is about as young as Kitanoumi and Takanohana, compared to how young the others in the top division are. The average age of rikishi entering Makunouchi is about 1,5 years higher now than since the second world war (a phenomenon of the last 5 years, for some reason I'm not going to guess on). Young is always a relative issue. I also belive the average age of Makunouchi rikishi are quite a bit higher, although I haven't checked that recently.

Taiho and Kashiwado were both very young when becoming Yokozunas. I don't have the stats with me, but I think Taiho was 1 month older than Kitanoumi and Kashiwado 21 years and 11 months or so. The stats you are referring to sadly doesn't include any rikishi with hatsudohyo before 1958 and I think Taiho and Kashiwado started sumo 1956-57. Only Chiyonofuji was "relatively old" of the yokozunas mentioned.

Note that I have only mentioned 4 dominating yokozunas, and then the most dominant of their rivals, often a part of the definition of an era. I mostly mentioned Takanosato as he was Chiyonofuji's greatest rival during the first part of that particular era, but as opposed to the other rivals mentioned, Chiyonofuji most often defines the era alone, whereas the three other eras often are defined with both the dominating yokozuna and his greatest rival.

EDIT: Kashiwado was 22 years and 10 months. Still young. Wajima was relatively old at 25 years and 4 months, but was a college rikishi and therefore hardly couldn't become yokozuna much earlier.

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

  Yubiquitoyama said:

It's obvious some of the more sceptic of us, such as me, and Kaikitsune, probably Doitsuyama and others have tried to downplay the most fantastic numbers, thereby guessing on some 8-12 yusho or less. It also seems the poll now shows most believe in 10-19 yusho and the next pack believes in 5-9.

I might in general be more sceptic than the average commoner, but in fact I was one of three voting for "Best ever Yokozuna (more than Taiho's 32 Yusho)".

You know, my thinking was very similar to yours now. There just is no rikishi out there who can realistically hold his own against except Musashimaru. Forget Tochiazuma, Kaio and Chiyotaikai, Asashoryu just got stronger than them over the last months. Musashimaru's career is clearly on the downhill.

So I thought he will get the clear majority of yusho over the years to come barring some other sensation which I don't see. Forget Roho or Tokitenku here too, they could become Sekitori, but not like Asashoryu. I have to say that I was pretty sure he will become a VERY strong rikishi since the first times I saw him as a 17-year old in Makushita. He was clearly the most powerful 17-year old I ever could imagine. I think Kintamayama shares this with me...

Another problem could be a debilitating injury or illness which I can't forsee now. I might throw in that I still believe Takanohana was shortened of a lot of yusho due to some mysterious thing in 1998. He had a kyujo and returned as quite another person looking if struck by illness over the last months.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

  Quote

You know, my thinking was very similar to yours now. There just is no rikishi out there who can realistically hold his own against except Musashimaru. Forget Tochiazuma, Kaio and Chiyotaikai, Asashoryu just got stronger than them over the last months. Musashimaru's career is clearly on the downhill.

So I thought he will get the clear majority of yusho over the years to come barring some other sensation which I don't see. Forget Roho or Tokitenku here too, they could become Sekitori, but not like Asashoryu. I have to say that I was pretty sure he will become a VERY strong rikishi since the first times I saw him as a 17-year old in Makushita. He was clearly the most powerful 17-year old I ever could imagine. I think Kintamayama shares this with me...

Another problem could be a debilitating injury or illness which I can't forsee now. I might throw in that I still believe Takanohana was shortened of a lot of yusho due to some mysterious thing in 1998. He had a kyujo and returned as quite another person looking if struck by illness over the last months.

Had written a message here but lost it because I felt like getting a greater window to write in: I hate Netscape... I don't feel like writing it again, but the main points were these:

1: Oh, I thought you a sceptic, Alexander. Sorry  :-9

2: I'm most interested in seeing what happens to Kotokikutsugi and Toyonoshima who still progresses unusually quick through the ranks at their age.

3: All of the young dominating yokozuna till now have suffered injuries after which they never came back to strength. It happened to Taiho, it happened to Kitanoumi and it happened to Takanohana. The risk of getting injuries isn't getting any smaller and Asashoryu's type of sumo combined with the increasing size of opponents seems to me just making the risk of injuries bigger than ever. That's why I guessed for about 20 yusho, because I think after that, Asashoryu's body can't take the kind of punishment he puts it through in training as well as in matches. But it remains to be seen...

Hm. I pretty much DID re-write the message... Oh well

(Blush...)

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

  Yubiquitoyama said:

Had written a message here but lost it because I felt like getting a greater window to write in

Sorry to hear that. I use this opportunity to remind you people again that since there seems to be a rare bug in the script that sometimes loses data, you're better off writing long messages "off-line" on a text editor or word processor and then pasting it onto the forum window while keeping a local copy of your message in case something goes wrong.

In a somewhat related note, I might add that the database conversion has now been ordered from IPB. :-)

[Kozaru 0]

  Zentoryu said:

(Asa) is clearly the dominant rikishi right now and once Maru and Kaio step aside, there should be no stopping him.

Ha! It's now more than 7 years later.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Kozaru

[Kozaru 0]

  Nishinoshima said:

Guess we all know the answer now. Worth bumping this thread.

Too bad sumo doesn't allow the comeback, like Hogan and Flair!

[Washuyama 641]

  Nishinoshima said:

eejits

(Sad goodbyes...)

[ryafuji 815]

Sorry to go OT but I was wondering who the rikishi in Hoshifransu's avatar is (first post)?

[Randomitsuki 2,843]

  ryafuji said:

Sorry to go OT but I was wondering who the rikishi in Hoshifransu's avatar is (first post)?

Towanoyama.

[ryafuji 815]

  Randomitsuki said:

  ryafuji said:

Sorry to go OT but I was wondering who the rikishi in Hoshifransu's avatar is (first post)?

Towanoyama.

Thanks. It's been so long since he was a sekitori I didn't even consider him!

[Asashosakari 19,675]

  ryafuji said:

Thanks. It's been so long since he was a sekitori I didn't even consider him!

Right-click is your friend. ;-)

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

I still like my post on page 2. Very correct for all the following years. Just consider Asashoryu's mental deficits as injuries and it's right on the mark.

[Sasanishiki 57]

There should have been an "infamous yokozuna" option