Inside Out Hoshitori

[Zenjimoto 40]

Yes, yes, you read right... after the original Hoshitori Contest came the Upside Down Hoshitori, so now it is only a natural progression to introduce to you the idea of the INSIDE OUT HOSHITORI, where you don't guess who makes the MOST wins, you don't guess who makes the LEAST wins, but instead you guess who makes the MEDIUMEST wins! (Neener, neener...) Yes, this game is all about those rikishi who skirt the KK-MK line!

Unlike the other games, the goal of this game is to score the LEAST amount of points... and to aim for that illusive PERFECT score of ZERO! :-P

Players pick 15 rikishi who they think will finish with a record directly adjacent to the KK/MK line (i.e. with either 8-7 or 7-8), and rank them in priority according to how sure they are, plus 5 alternate picks. The top pick will carry a multiplier of 6, the following two 5, then 3 each with 4, 3, 2, and 1. Rikishi from Makuuchi or Juryo may be picked, and players should indiacate which side of the KK/MK line they think each rikishi will finish on. A sample pick submittal may look like this:

MUL PICK RIKISHI
---------------------
6:  7-8 Roho
5:  7-8 Aminishiki
5:  8-7 Miyabiyama
4:  8-7 Ama
4:  8-7 Harunoyama
4:  8-7 Tokitsuumi
3:  7-8 Kaiho
3:  8-7 Kotoshogiku
3:  8-7 Dejima
2:  8-7 Takamisakari
2:  7-8 Kassugao
2:  7-8 Tochisakae
1:  7-8 Kokkai
1:  8-7 Kotomitsuki
1:  7-8 Katayama
A1: 8-7 Toki
A2: 8-7 Tosanoumi
A3: 7-8 Toyonoshima
A4: 8-7 Kobo
A5: 8-7 Otsukasa

Scoring of the game is as follows:

If your pick's record is adjacent to the KK/MK line (i.e. 8-7 or 7-8), that pick's score will be ZERO. If it is one higher or lower (9-6 or 6-9), the score will be ONE, times the multiplier assigned to your pick. At two higher or lower (10-5 or 5-10), the score will be TWO times the multiplier, etc. Rikishi who go kyujo will be replaced by the alternates in sequence, with all picks below them moving up one notch on the multiplier ranks. In other words, the sequence in which the multipliers were assigned always stays the same. Kyujo rikishi are replaced regardless of their time of withdrawal, or their record.

Here is a sample result for last basho:

MUL PICK RIKISHI	   RES BE DIF SCORE
---------------------------------------
6:  7-8 Roho		  9-6	 1	6
5:  7-8 Aminishiki	9-6	 1	5
5:  8-7 Miyabiyama	8-7  *  0	0
4:  8-7 Ama		   9-6	 1	4
4:  8-7 Harunoyama	7-8	 0	0
4:  8-7 Tokitsuumi   12-3	 4   16
3:  7-8 Kaiho		 7-8  *  0	0
3:  8-7 Kotoshogiku   8-7  *  0	0
3:  8-7 Dejima		8-7  *  0	0
2:  8-7 Takamisakari  7-8	 0	0
2:  7-8 Kassugao	  9-6	 1	2
(2:) 7-8 Tochisakae	dnf	 -	-
1:  7-8 Kokkai		8-7	 0	0
1:  8-7 Kotomitsuki   8-7  *  0	0
1:  7-8 Katayama	  6-9	 1	1
(A1:)8-7 Toki		  dnf	 -	-
A2: 8-7 Tosanoumi	 5-10	2	2
A3: 7-8 Toyonoshima   7-8	 -	-
A4: 8-7 Kobo		  6-9	 -	-
A5: 8-7 Otsukasa	 10-5	 -	-
-------------------------------------
TOTAL					   5  11  36

The final score for this pick was 36. The total difference between anticipated records and actual records was 11 wins, and 5 bulls-eyes hit (guessing the correct record of 8-7 or 7-8). Sansho could be as follows: Shukun-sho: only player to guess a rikishi's record correctly. Gino-sho: smallest difference (DIF) score or raw points without multipliers. Kanto-sho: most bulls-eyes... all these just as first ideas.

If you would like to partitipate in the Alpha test, please use the below form as a template, and post your picks in this thread.

MUL PICK RIKISHI
----------------
6:  
5:
5:
4:
4:
4:
3:
3:
3:
2:
2:
2:
1:
1:
1:
A1:
A2:
A3:
A4:
A5:

We'll figure out how to score this later, for the Alpha test I would hope for maybe 10 or so players as long as the scoring is manually done, just to get a better idea of the viability of this game idea. I have been playing this on my own for the last 2 basho, and I think it may be worth a try (Punk rocker...) As always, suggestions are most welcome... I am sure I missed plenty of stuff, as usual ;-)

Enjoy all the games this basho! :-)

Cheers!

Zenjimoto

Edited March 4, 2006 by Zenjimoto

[Kotononami 86]

Let's try! (Neener, neener...)

MUL PICK RIKISHI

----------------

6: Kakizoe 8-7

5: Miyabiyama 8-7

5: Dejima 8-7

4: Asasekiryu 7-8

4: Kitazakura 8-7

4: Takanotsuru 8-7

3: Kotoshogiku 8-7

3: Shunketsu 7-8

3: Kobo 8-7

2: Tamanoshima 8-7

2: Tokitenku 7-8

2: Daishodai 7-8

1: Futeno 8-7

1: Toyonoshima 8-7

1: Daraido 7-8

A1: Harunoyama 8-7

A2: Ama 7-8

A3: Toki 8-7

A4: Buyuzan 8-7

A5 : Kasugao 8-7

Thanks

Edited March 5, 2006 by Kotononami

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

MUL PICK RIKISHI
----------------
6:  8-7  Takamisakari
5:  7-8  Kyokushuzan
5:  8-7  Iwakiyama
4:  7-8  Futeno
4:  7-8  Takekaze
4:  8-7  Hakurozan
3:  7-8  Toyonoshima
3:  7-8  Asasekiryu
3:  7-8  Kyokutenho
2:  8-7  Kakizoe
2:  8-7  Katayama
2:  7-8  Kaiho
1:  8-7  Kasugao
1:  8-7  Toyozakura
1:  8-7  Kobo
A1: 8-7  Aminishiki
A2: 7-8  Tochinohana
A3: 7-8  Kasuganishiki
A4: 7-8  Roho
A5: 8-7  Toyozakura

[Zenjimoto 40]

Wow, thank you (Punk rocker...) So far, the response hasn't exactly been overwhelming, heheh...

[Torideyama 32]

MUL PICK RIKISHI

----------------

6: Kasugao 7-8

5: Dejima 7-8

5: Kaiho 8-7

4: Tokitenku 8-7

4: Shunketsu 8-7

4: Kakizoe 7-8

3: Takanotsuru 8-7

3: Otsukasa 8-7

3: Kyokutenho 8-7

2: Kokkai 8-7

2: Kasuganishiki 8-7

2: Kotoshogiku 8-7

1: Kiesenosato 7-8

1: Buyuzan 7-8

1: Toki 8-7

A1: Dairaido 7-8

A2: Iwakiyama 7-8

A3: Shimotori 8-7

A4: Takanowaka 8-7

A5: Kobo 7-8

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

MUL PICK RIKISHI
----------------
6:  7-8  Asasekiryu
5:  8-7  Dairaido
5:  7-8  Takamisakari
4:  7-8  Toyonoshima
4:  8-7  Takanowaka
4:  8-7  Kotomitsuki
3:  8-7  Wakatoba
3:  7-8  Shunketsu
3:  8-7  Tokitenku
2:  7-8  Kasuganishiki
2:  7-8  Ryuho
2:  7-8  Hokutoiwa
1:  8-7  Kyokushuzan
1:  8-7  Miyabiyama
1:  7-8  Takakaze
A1: 7-8  Kotoshogiku
A2: 7-8  Kobo
A3: 7-8  Takanotsuru
A4: 8-7  Hochiyama
A5: 7-8  Tamakasuga

[Gusoyama 103]

MUL PICK RIKISHI

----------------

6: 8-7 Iwakiyama

5: 8-7 Asasekiryu

5: 7-8 Kasugao

4: 7-8 Toyonoshima

4: 8-7 Dejima

4: 7-8 Tokitsuumi

3: 7-8 Kitazakura

3: 8-7 Futeno

3: 8-7 Kakizoe

2: 8-7 Tokitenku

2: 7-8 Ama

2: 8-7 Chiyotaikai

1: 7-8 Miyabiyama

1: 7-8 Takekaze

1: 8-7 Toyozakura

A1: 8-7 Katayama

A2: 8-7 Kobo

A3: 8-7 Kaiho

A4: 7-8 Ryuho

A5: 7-8 Daishodai

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

MUL PICK RIKISHI

------------

6: 8-7 Dejima

5: 7-8 Miyabiyama

5: 8-7 Iwakiyama

4: 8-7 Kyokushuzan

4: 8-7 Harunoyama

4: 8-7 Tochinonada

3: 8-7 Kakuryu

3: 7-8 Ryuho

3: 8-7 Tokitenku

2: 8-7 Kotoshogiku

2: 7-8 Toyozakura

2: 7-8 Hokutoiwa

1: 7-8 Daishodai

1: 7-8 Tamanoshima

1: 8-7 Takekaze

A1: 8-7 Futeno

A2: 8-7 Toyonoshima

A3: 7-8 Ushiomaru

A4: 7-8 Yoshikaze

A5: 8-7 Asasekiryu

Edited March 9, 2006 by Randomitsuki

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

As always, suggestions are most welcome...

At first I was a little hesitant about this concept. But then I figured out that the entries will be much more different between players than in probably any other sumo game - that's a great thing of course.

I don't know if this was discussed in another thread already, but maybe scoring could somehow take into account the crucial question of whether a rikishi receives KK or MK. As it is now, it doesn't make a difference if a rikishi who actually finishes 9-6 had a 7-8 or 8-7 prediction. In both cases, you are only one off. You probably did not suggest to take the difference between prediction and actual result because in that case people could name Asashoryu with 15-0 as their six-pointer, thereby undermining the very concept of this game. Anyway, maybe some mixture between difference (actual-predicted) and proximity to KK-MK line could solve the problem.

Edit: How about sticking to your scoring but additionally introducing a penalty for guessing the wrong type of -koshi? I guess it could make sense to use a fixed penalty of 1 point or so - in case of the 6-pointer you have good reason not to know if it's going to be KK or MK, and 1 point penalty isn't a big deal. However, for your 1-pointers and substitutes you are more and more certain if they'll get KK or MK, and if you fail to predict that, a 1-point penalty can be quite harmful.

Edited March 9, 2006 by Randomitsuki

[Susanoo 382]

6: 8-7 Takekaze

5: 8-7 Kisenosato

5: 8-7 Kyokunankai

4: 8-7 Kobo

4: 8-7 Hochiyama

4: 8-7 Tokitenku

3: 8-7 Futeno

3: 8-7 Ushiomaru

3: 7-8 Satoyama

2: 7-8 Kakuryu

2: 7-8 Asasekiryu

2: 7-8 Tokitsuumi

1: 8-7 Wakatoba

1: 8-7 Yoshikaze

1: 7-8 Aminishiki

A1: 8-7 Iwakiyama

A2: 8-7 Kyokutenho

A3: 8-7 Kotomitsuki

A4: 7-8 Kasuganishiki

A5: 8-7 Kokkai

(Neener, neener...)

[Asashosakari 19,320]

I don't know if this was discussed in another thread already, but maybe scoring could somehow take into account the crucial question of whether a rikishi receives KK or MK. As it is now, it doesn't make a difference if a rikishi who actually finishes 9-6 had a 7-8 or 8-7 prediction. In both cases, you are only one off. You probably did not suggest to take the difference between prediction and actual result because in that case people could name Asashoryu with 15-0 as their six-pointer, thereby undermining the very concept of this game.

I thought you're only allowed to predict 7-8 or 8-7, anyway?

Edit: How about sticking to your scoring but additionally introducing a penalty for guessing the wrong type of -koshi? I guess it could make sense to use a fixed penalty of 1 point or so - in case of the 6-pointer you have good reason not to know if it's going to be KK or MK, and 1 point penalty isn't a big deal. However, for your 1-pointers and substitutes you are more and more certain if they'll get KK or MK, and if you fail to predict that, a 1-point penalty can be quite harmful.

Shouldn't it be the other way around, i.e. you put a certain rikishi at 6 points because you're much more sure about him than about your 1-point guys? That's the only way that the "alternates move UP to fill in empty slots" idea makes sense.

At any rate, I'd also be in favour of taking the prediction directly into account for the scoring, so that a prediction of 7-8 scores one (not zero) when the actual record is 8-7. I'm always a bit irked when some integral part of the gameplay only matters for sansho (like the 7-8/8-7 prediction does now), because that seems kind of pointless... Anyway, if scoring is changed that way, you automatically have a penalty for getting the KK/MK wrong (one point times the multiplier), so there'd be no other changes needed.

Edited March 9, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Gusoyama 103]

At first I was a little hesitant about this concept. But then I figured out that the entries will be much more different between players than in probably any other sumo game - that's a great thing of course.

I don't know if this was discussed in another thread already, but maybe scoring could somehow take into account the crucial question of whether a rikishi receives KK or MK. As it is now, it doesn't make a difference if a rikishi who actually finishes 9-6 had a 7-8 or 8-7 prediction. In both cases, you are only one off. You probably did not suggest to take the difference between prediction and actual result because in that case people could name Asashoryu with 15-0 as their six-pointer, thereby undermining the very concept of this game. Anyway, maybe some mixture between difference (actual-predicted) and proximity to KK-MK line could solve the problem.

Edit: How about sticking to your scoring but additionally introducing a penalty for guessing the wrong type of -koshi? I guess it could make sense to use a fixed penalty of 1 point or so - in case of the 6-pointer you have good reason not to know if it's going to be KK or MK, and 1 point penalty isn't a big deal. However, for your 1-pointers and substitutes you are more and more certain if they'll get KK or MK, and if you fail to predict that, a 1-point penalty can be quite harmful.

My problem with this type of penalty is what I call "The Guess the Banzuke Effect". If I guess 7-8, and the rikishi gets an 8-7, I'm only one off, but I get the same Wrong-Koshi penalty as if they got a 15-0.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Too late to edit my above post, so take #2...

Edit: How about sticking to your scoring but additionally introducing a penalty for guessing the wrong type of -koshi? I guess it could make sense to use a fixed penalty of 1 point or so - in case of the 6-pointer you have good reason not to know if it's going to be KK or MK, and 1 point penalty isn't a big deal. However, for your 1-pointers and substitutes you are more and more certain if they'll get KK or MK, and if you fail to predict that, a 1-point penalty can be quite harmful.

The more often I re-read this paragraph, the less I'm able to figure out what you mean...a 1-point penalty to the rikishi's raw score, or to his multiplier, or to the computed score for the slot? I'm really confused how that penalty is supposed to be worse for the 1-multiplier slots, especially since LEAST points wins the game.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Edit: How about sticking to your scoring but additionally introducing a penalty for guessing the wrong type of -koshi? I guess it could make sense to use a fixed penalty of 1 point or so - in case of the 6-pointer you have good reason not to know if it's going to be KK or MK, and 1 point penalty isn't a big deal. However, for your 1-pointers and substitutes you are more and more certain if they'll get KK or MK, and if you fail to predict that, a 1-point penalty can be quite harmful.

The more often I re-read this paragraph, the less I'm able to figure out what you mean...a 1-point penalty to the rikishi's raw score, or to his multiplier, or to the computed score for the slot? I'm really confused how that penalty is supposed to be worse for the 1-multiplier slots, especially since LEAST points wins the game.

Sorry for being unable to make myself clear. I would have suggested a 1-point penalty to the score for the slot.

Examples:

Your 6-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 8-7: that would result in a score of 6 points

Your 6-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 7-8: that would result in a score of 6 points + 1 point penalty = 7 points.

Another example:

Your 1-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 8-7: that would result in a score of 1 point.

Your 1-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 7-8: that would result in a score of 1 point + 1 point penalty = 2 points.

Relatively speaking, the failed 1-pointer costs you more dearly than the failed 6-pointer. And at least to me this would make sense because your 6-pointer should be the guy who is really darn close to the MK/KK-line, and therefore actual KK or MK will be extremely difficult to predict.

OTOH, your 1-pointers and substitutes might be guys that you would not expect to have 7.5 wins, but maybe 6.9 or 8.1. If you miss the KK/MK-prediction for these cases, the relative penalty should be bigger.

Edited March 9, 2006 by Randomitsuki

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Sorry for being unable to make myself clear. I would have suggested a 1-point penalty to the score for the slot.

Examples:

Your 6-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 8-7: that would result in a score of 6 points

Your 6-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 7-8: that would result in a score of 6 points + 1 point penalty = 7 points.

Another example:

Your 1-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 8-7: that would result in a score of 1 point.

Your 1-pointer has a 9-6, and you had him at 7-8: that would result in a score of 1 point + 1 point penalty = 2 points.

Relatively speaking, the failed 1-pointer costs you more dearly than the failed 6-pointer. And at least to me this would make sense because your 6-pointer should be the guy who is really darn close to the MK/KK-line, and therefore actual KK or MK will be extremely difficult to predict.

OTOH, your 1-pointers and substitutes might be guys that you would not expect to have 7.5 wins, but maybe 6.9 or 8.1. If you miss the KK/MK-prediction for these cases, the relative penalty should be bigger.

Thanks for the clarification. (Applauding...) I disagree on your interpretation of that approach, though: Given that the overall scoring is cumulative, the relative strength of the penalties doesn't really matter, does it? There's no actual difference between five rikishi causing you penalties in the top five slots, or the bottom five.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Thanks for the clarification. (Hugging...) I disagree on your interpretation of that approach, though: Given that the overall scoring is cumulative, the relative strength of the penalties doesn't really matter, does it? There's no actual difference between five rikishi causing you penalties in the top five slots, or the bottom five.

Erm, yes (Applauding...).

I wish I could answer something incredibly clever, but my cleverness took a day off.

Edited March 9, 2006 by Randomitsuki

[Mmikasazuma 12]

My try:

MUL PICK RIKISHI

----------------

6:Dejima 7-8

5:Takamisakari7-8

5:Kotomitsuki 8-7

4:Kakizoe 8-7

4:Hakurozan 7-8

4:Toyonoshima 7-8

3:Tokitsuumi 7-8

3:Kokkai 7-8

3:Kotoshogiku 8-7

2:Asasekiryu 8-7

2:Miyabiyama 8-7

2:Jumonji 7-8

1:Iwakiyama 8-7

1:Tokitenku 8-7

1:Toyozakura 7-8

A1:Takanowaka 8-7

A2:Shunketsu 8-7

A3:Tochinohana 7-8

A4:Katayama 8-7

A5:Shunketsu 8-7

[Konosato 45]

MUL PICK RIKISHI
----------------
6:  7-8  Dairaido
5:  7-8  Kotoshogiku
5:  8-7  Tochinohana
4:  7-8  Wakatoba
4:  8-7  Senshuyama
4:  8-7  Iwakiyama
3:  7-8  Toyozakura
3:  8-7  Harunoyama
3:  8-7  Yoshikaze
2:  7-8  Roho
2:  8-7  Futeno
2:  7-8  Takekaze
1:  7-8  Asasekiryu
1:  8-7  Kakuryu
1:  8-7  Katayama
A1: 7-8  Hokutoiwa
A2: 8-7  Takamisakari
A3: 8-7  Tamakasuga
A4: 7-8  Dejima
A5: 8-7  Takanowaka

[Takamueda 0]

My pick:

MUL PICK RIKISHI
----------------
6:  7-8  Dejima
5:  7-8  Kotomitsuki
5:  8-7  Takamisakari
4:  7-8  Miyabiyama
4:  7-8  Futeno
4:  7-8  Asasekiryu
3:  7-8  Kasugao
3:  8-7  Takekaze
3:  8-7  Kyokunankai
2:  8-7  Daishodai
2:  7-8  Takanotsuru
2:  7-8  Tamakasuga
1:  7-8  Jumonji
1:  7-8  Kotoshogiku
1:  8-7  Hakurozan
A1: 7-8  Asofuji
A2: 8-7  Kaiho
A3: 8-7  Takanowaka
A4: 8-7  Kobo
A5: 8-7  Katayama

[Tamanaogijima 756]

MUL PICK RIKISHI
----------------
6:  8-7  Kotoshogiku
5:  8-7  Kisenosato
5:  7-8  Kyokunankai
4:  8-7  Kyokutenho
4:  7-8  Kakizoe
4:  8-7  Dejima
3:  8-7  Kotomitsuki
3:  8-7  Takamisakari
3:  8-7  Toyonoshima
2:  7-8  Asasekiryu
2:  7-8  Buyuzan
2:  8-7  Tokitenku
1:  7-8  Katayama
1:  7-8  Toyozakura
1:  7-8  Takanotsuru
A1: 8-7  Kakuryu
A2: 8-7  Kobo
A3: 8-7  Asofuji
A4: 7-8  Harunoyama
A5: 8-7  Satoyama

[Takanorappa 97]

MUL PICK RIKISHI

----------------

6: 8-7 Takamisakari

5: 8-7 Kasugao

5: 8-7 Kakizoe

4: 7-8 Roho

4: 7-8 Takekaze

4: 8-7 Hakurozan

3: 7-8 Toyonoshima

3: 7-8 Jumonji

3: 7-8 Dairaido

2: 7-8 Iwakiyama

2: 8-7 Katayama

2: 7-8 Kaiho

1: 8-7 Yoshikaze

1: 8-7 Toyozakura

1: 8-7 Kobo

A1: 8-7 Aminishiki

A2: 7-8 Tochinohana

A3: 7-8 Kasuganishiki

A4: 8-7 Kyokutenho

A5: 8-7 Toyozakura

[Asashosakari 19,320]

6: 7-8 Dejima

5: 7-8 Kokkai

5: 8-7 Kakizoe

4: 7-8 Iwakiyama

4: 7-8 Kotoshogiku

4: 7-8 Kisenosato

3: 8-7 Asasekiryu

3: 8-7 Kobo

3: 7-8 Katayama

2: 7-8 Jumonji

2: 8-7 Futeno

2: 7-8 Toyonoshima

1: 7-8 Wakatoba

1: 8-7 Takekaze

1: 7-8 Miyabiyama

A1: 7-8 Roho

A2: 8-7 Daishodai

A3: 7-8 Takanotsuru

A4: 8-7 Tokitenku

A5: 7-8 Kyokunankai

[Zenjimoto 40]

And here are finally, my picks: :-)

MUL PICK RIKISHI
----------------
6:  8-7 Iwakiyama
5:  8-7 Dejima
5:  8-7 Kotoshogiku
4:  7-8 Jumonji
4:  7-8 Toyonoshima
4:  8-7 Tokitenku
3:  8-7 Katayama
3:  8-7 Harunoyama
3:  7-8 Dairaido
2:  8-7 Kobo
2:  7-8 Ushiomaru
2:  7-8 Tochinohana
1:  8-7 Toyozakura
1:  7-8 Tamakasuga
1:  7-8 Yoshikaze
A1: 8-7 Kakizoe
A2: 7-8 Roho
A3: 7-8 Futeno
A4: 8-7 Shunketsu
A5: 7-8 Ryuho

[Norizo 0]

6: 7-8 Asasekiryu

5: 8-7 Takekaze

5: 8-7 Kotoshogiku

4: 7-8 Futono

4: 7-8 Katayama

4: 8-7 Daishodai

3: 8-7 Kairyu

3: 8-7 Satoyama

3: 7-8 Senshuyama

2: 8-7 Takamisakari

2: 8-7 Daimanazuru

2: 7-8 Dairaido

1: 7-8 Kasuganisiki

1: 7-8 Jyumonji

1: 7-8 Tochinohana

A1: 8-7 Tokitenku

A2: 8-7 Kakizoe

A3: 8-7 Chiyotaikai

A4: 7-8 Iwakiyama

A5: 7-8 Dejima

by Norizo

[Zenjimoto 40]

Thanks to all who sumitted alpha picks! Let's see how this will pan out! :-)

If any one has any alternative ideas to manual scoring, I would be most interesting to hear them in time before I sit down with pencil and paper at the end of the basho (I am not worthy...)

Thanks again, and enjoy the basho! (Hugging...)

Cheers!

Zenjimoto