Sandanme Game Alpha test

[Itachi 396]

Hello all you lower division fans!

There were 35 of us on the Makushita Game banzuke for this tournament and some of you may have an eye on the Sandanme division as well. I'm sure many of us find themselves drawn into more games than they have time for but if you follow the lower ranks anyway then a game like this may help focus your attention and add structure to your procrastination time.

My propsed format for a Sandanme game is as follows.

1. Divide the Sandanme division into 15 groups (as we do in the Makushita game) and select one rikishi from each group.

Since the Sandanme division has 100 ranks, it does not divide nicely into 15. I decided to divide the top half into groups of 5 and the bottom half into groups of 10.

e.g.

group 1: Sd1e - Sd5w

group 2: Sd6e - Sd10w

etc.

group 11: Sd51e - Sd 60w

etc.

2. Send your list of 15 rikishi to me in an email to nmatsuo@shaw.ca

3. Deadline is arbitrarily set at midnight before the first day of the tournament - Japan time. This is just to ensure that no results are known before picks are made. I'll post something with a list of everyone's picks once the entries are all in and the tournament has started.

Scoring: My goal is to produce a score out of 15. This is why I was attached to the idea of 15 groups.

I also like the idea of rewarding the group winners as well as the yusho winner, any kachikoshi, and any wins even for makekoshi rikishi.

Each rikishi you select will earn:

1 point for each win.

1 point for reaching kachikoshi

1 point for having the best record in the group (tied for best record is ok)

15 points for winning the yusho (only for actual yusho, not for equivalent record)

This will produce a maximum score of 150 (9 points for 7-0 riksihi 9x15 = 135 plus 15 point bonus for yusho makes 150)

Divide by 10 for a score out of 15. Round up to make integer scores. (7.5 = 8 wins and 7.4 = 7 wins)

I don't have a lot of tools or time for tracking the game so my plan at this stage is to compile the results at the end of the tournament. I may surprise everyone with the occaisional update during the tournament (if no one else beats me to it). I'll gladly contract out the banzuke making duties, but if no one offers to do it, I'll work that out too.

Let's try it!

Itachi

Edited July 2, 2006 by Itachi

[Itachi 396]

There are two entries already and only two selections in common out of 15.

Here is a look at last tournament.

The yusho went to Maikaze (from the Sd 26-30 group) who was the only 7-0 rikishi.

The winner (and cowinners) of 9 of the groups finished 6-1.

The remaining five groups were lead by 5-2 record holders.

Two of the groups had 3 co-leaders.

Two groups had two co-leaders.

The other 15 groups had a clear winner.

Only one group had more than half the rikishi finish with kachikoshi (the Sd 16-20 group).

The weakest group was the Sd 1-5 with only 3 of 10 earning kk, a 5-2 winner (Wakasuruga), a total kyujo, a partial kyujo, and 5 other makekoshi finishes.

For information to help with selections I recommend www.scgroup.com for the past four tournament results and Doitsuyama's full banzuke (posted on this forum) for current rank and vital statistics.

Good luck with your picks!

Send them to me at nmatsuo@shaw.ca

Thanks,

Itachi

[Itachi 396]

Many of you have visited this thread but only 2 of us have sent in their picks (including myself).

I figured that no one who doesn't play the Makushita Game would be interested in playing this one so there are 35 potential players (excluding potential new ones).

Oshirokita's Guess the Yusho Winners has even more players on the banzuke (was it 43?) and so there are players who are willing to ponder rikishi selections below Makushita.

2 of 35 seems quite low. I am hoping that thee will be a flood of entries in the final days before the tournament.

If you are waiting because of the risk of a kyujo, do not worry. It is not my intention to have unexpected kyujo affect the results.

If a riksihi on your list fails to enter the tournament - is listed as kyujo from day 1 - you will have the opportunity to replace him with any rikishi (in his group) who has not yet had a match (there should be a few) or by the default pick (the rikishi with the best record last tournament as in Oshirokita's game).

To accept the default replacement, do nothing (post your intention if you wish but the replacement will be assumed). To select another rikishi, email me (or post) your selected replacement. To be fair, I will only accept selections who have not yet fought.

Itachi

[Itachi 396]

Considering the small number on entrants and the relative ease in setting up a spreadsheet to track the game, I will pledge to post results along the schedule kept by Oshirokita in his game. Maybe not every day for the first 10 days or so but each day during the last days of the tournament.

I found it easy to import the sandanme banzuke to excel but I haven't found a convenient way of grabbing results. I will be updating the sandanme hoshitori manually unless I get some good advice on how to do it (the last machine I wrote code for was a C-64).

Don't be shy - send me an entry! This is only the first trial run so don't worry about it if you feel under prepared. I need a few more entries so I can work out the bugs and find an efficient way of trackiing this game.

There are 15 groups. Pick one from each group.

Group 1: Sd 1-5

Group 2: Sd 6-10

Group 3: Sd 11-15

Group 4: Sd 16-20

Group 5: Sd 21-25

Group 6: Sd 26-30

Group 7: Sd 31-35

Group 8: Sd 36-40

Group 9: Sd 41-45

Group10: Sd 46-50

Group 11: Sd 51-60

Group 12: Sd 61-70

Group 13: Sd 71-80

Group 14: Sd 81-90

Group 15: Sd 91-100

Each riksihi will receive one point for each win, one more for kachikoshi, and one more for having the best record in his group (or tied for best). There will be 15 points awarded for the rikishi who wins the yusho (should this be shared with yusho equivalent record rikishi?) so that the maximum possible socre is 150. (9x15+15=150) Divide by ten and round to nearest integer for an integer score out of 15.

Can we average a kachikoshi? Will the scoring system require adjusting? Comments?

Even if you are not going to play, if you are one of the 55 visitors to this thread, please offer your opinions to help me shape this game.

Itachi

[Itachi 396]

Be aware that Sd 62w Daishoyu is rumoured to be kyujo for the start of the tournament.

Even if he returns mid-basho there are good prospects who should easily outscore him in the Sd 61 - 70 group.

I see a lot of visits to this thread but so far only two of us have made entries. I hope a few more of you take a chance to make this alpha test a bit more interesting for us. I am stubborn enough to try again next tournament but I'd like to see whether the proposed scoring system will produce a reasonable number of kk records amongst us.

Here is an example of how the scoring might work.

Suppose you can average 4 wins per rikishi with your 15 selections.

Suppose also that 8 of your 15 earn kk. (Given an average of 4 wins, that seems about right.)

Suppose 4 of those 8 actually win their group.

You would score 4 x 15 = 60 for wins plus 8 for kk plus 4 for winning groups for a total of 72 points.

If you didn't include the yusho winner amongst your 15 selections then that is all the points you earn.

72/10 = 7.2 which rounds to 7 wins. Not good enough for kk. Is kk too tough to achieve?

Suppose also that one of your 15 rikishi is the yusho winner. Now you earn 15 bonus points for a total of 87.

87/100 = 8.7 which rounds to 9 wins.

Not bad. Too good for such an average performance?

I wonder if the points awarded for the yusho should be adjusted to allow for points for yusho equivalent records. I would like to stick with allocating only 15 points in total with the yusho winner getting the bulk of it. Perhaps awarding 10 points to the yusho winner with the remaining 5 to be split amongst those with equivalent records would work. I think it should be at least 10 because that way it is still possible to earn a 15-0 record.

[sekihiryu 51]

(Blushing...) kk does sound tough to achieve, though it all sounds greek to me! The scoring system for the Makushita game seems be be working, you dont want to adopt that?

anyway my team is in (Yusho winner...)

[Itachi 396]

Sekihiryu wrote: it all sounds greek to me!

Itachi: Sorry - I tend to over explain things and end up making them sound even more confusing sometimes.

Sekihiryu: The scoring system for the Makushita game seems be be working, you dont want to adopt that?

Itachi: I am very happy with the way the Makushita game works but I had my own idea I wanted to try with this game. The scoring is easier to add up since 1 win = 1 point, kk = 1 point, best in group = 1 point. So far the scoring is similar to the Guess the Yusho Winners game.

We want to produce records out of 15.

We have 15 rikishi.

With 9 points possible for each rikishi we are 15 short of a convenient total of 150 so I thought 15 points for the yusho would be a suitable bonus (with 15 tries, I think most of us will guess the yusho winner).

Our scores will be out of 150 then and so a tenth of that gives a nice sumo-like record.

If kk proves unreasonably difficult, we can just increase some of the bonuses next time.

Thanks to all who have entered or who have considered entering. There are only 19 playing the Makushita game so far so we have a few more potential entrants I hope.

Itachi

Edited July 8, 2006 by Itachi

[Itachi 396]

I hope this is readable!

Here is a list of everyone's selections including the Drone.

The Drone decided to take the most popular rikishi in each group unless there wasn't one in which case it took the youngest rikishi.

I'll try to find a convenient way to produce and post results as time allows.

Thanks to everyone for playing!

Itachi

Group Fay Itachi Sekihiryu Tamanogijima Doitsuyama Drone

1 Kaishoryu Sadanofuji Sadanofuji Sadanofuji Shimada Sadanofuji

2 Gokenzan Shironishiki Shironishiki Futasegawa Shironishiki Shironishiki

3 Kakureizan Kakureizan Kyokuryudake Fujinokaze Kachimori Kakureizan

4 Enatsukasa Orora Yamasaki Yamasaki Sadanoshima Yamasaki

5 Kyokushoten Maenoyu Maenoyu Maenoyu Maenoyu Maenoyu

6 Kotohikari Kaonishiki Asahisakari Yuminosato Asahisakari Asahisakari

7 Wakamifuji Morioka Morioka Wakamifuji Morioka Morioka

8 Asahanada Masuhikari Masuhikari Masuhikari Masuhikari Masuhikari

9 Gagamaru Gagamaru Gagamaru Gagamaru Gagamaru Gagamaru

10 Takashoma Ginkakuzan Ako Ako Kabasawa Ako

11 Shinzan Daitensho Daitensho Wakamigo Wakatora Daitensho

12 Kotomisen Takunishiki Takakiho Takunishiki Takunishiki Takunishiki

13 Kotootori Yoshinoryu Kabutoiwa Kakushoma Kirinishiki Hatayama

14 Seiryu Seifu Ikemoto Oseumi Bungonishiki Isetsukasa

15 Masunoumi Masuko Masuko Masuko Masuko Masuko

P.S. If you find any errors in your team please let me know.

Good Luck!

[Itachi 396]

Results after Day 1

This is only the total win/loss recrd of our 15 rikishi so far.

Shikona Record

Fay (5-4)

Itachi (6-0)

Sekihiryu (5-3)

Tamanogijima (5-3)

Doitsuyama (3-0)

Drone (5-1)

I have set up a formula to project our final results as a win/loss record out of 15 without factoring in the bonus for yusho. The initial projections are meaningless since many of our rikishi haven't had a bout but all of us appear headed for kk.

Itachi

[Itachi 396]

Here are the win/loss results for your rikishi after day 2. Every one of our riksihi has had a match.

I am a bit embarrased by my good start. I should not be winning at the game I administer. I'm sure things will even out after a few days.

As for the drone, popular picks are often good ones in lower division games and I think that at this level youth trumps experience on average. If the drone does too well we may have to adjust it's selection formula for next time.

Fay (8-7)

Itachi (15-0)

Sekihiryu (10-5)

Tamanogijima (10-5)

Doitsuyama (12-3)

Drone (12-3)

Top points stealers were popular but losing Yamasaki and Ako.

Gagamaru is the only unanimous pick and did not disappoint.

[Torideyama 32]

Itachi,

I submitted a lineup via e-mail to you last week, yet I do not see it here.

I will attempt to see what happened on my part, if you would please check again on your end.

Thanks.

Torideyama

[Fay 1,677]

Perhaps it would sometimes be a better idea not to name rikishi, because I like them ... but this was the first day and my boys will fight for their kashikochi.

1. Kaishoryu promised to get up to Makushita again

2. I remember Takanohana Oyakata saying at the end of Hatsu Basho that Gokenzan will be in Juryo again this year (Blowing up furiously...) , so he should at least make it in Sandanme (Blowing up furiously...)

3. Kakureizan will follow his stablemate Kakuryu - they just have a slow start

4. Enatsukasa ???

5. Kyokushoten - well you never know what this Oshima guys have in mind

6. Kotohikari - just fell to Sandanme, no holiday in Israel, now he wants to show everybody, that he is a fighter

7. Wakamifuji - I have no clue

8. Asahanada, the name is superior quality

9. Gagamaru, ok everybody choose him

10. Takashoma, he should finally make it this time

11. Shinzan - no clue

12 + 13 my two sweeties Kotomisen and Kotootori, good or bad, it doesn't matter, I always cross my fingers for them

14 Seiryu + 15 Masunoumi I don't know anything about them but they will make it....

[Itachi 396]

Itachi,

I submitted a lineup via e-mail to you last week, yet I do not see it here.

I will attempt to see what happened on my part, if you would please check again on your end.

Thanks.

Torideyama

Sorry Torideyama,

There is no trace of your e-mail but I think if you had sent it to my yahoo account, my wife may have deleted it. I requested the entries be sent to nmatsuo@shaw.ca due to the fact that my wife has taken over our yahoo account and so things sent there don't always get to me.

Once again, let me have a fresh copy of your entry at nmatsuo@shaw.ca

Thanks for playing!

Itachi

p.s. Yes, I see that my email account for sumoforum is set at the yahoo one. I will change this soon but now I am due back at work - got to go!

[Itachi 396]

Here are the win-loss records for our teams of 15 after day 3.

Fay (14-8)

Itachi (20-2)

Sekihiryu (16-10)

Tamanogijima (17-8)

Doitsuyama (15-6)

Drone (20-6)

Torideyama (?-?) - still waiting for him to resend his entry since it seems to have disappeared into my wife's trash bin. I've since changed my email settings so everything from here should go to the one I use - nmatsuo@shaw.ca

I wonder if there are any other potential players who sent their entries to the wrong address.

Even without Torideyama's selections, we have picked 50 of the 200 sandanme rikishi for this game. 2 of those are unique to the drone because there weren't any popular picks in groups 13 and 14 - each of us selected a different rikishi.

The most popular pick, Gagamaru, is now 2-0.

All of us appear on course for kachikoshi.

Itachi

[Itachi 396]

Here are the results after 4 days.

I'm half asleep as I prepare this so there may be something I've missed but I will verify everything against the hoshitori later in the tournament so not to worry. If you think I've missed something, let me know.

Win-Loss records for our teams after four days are as follows:

Fay (18-12)

Itachi (22-6)

Sekihiryu (17-11)

Tamanogijima (17-11)

Doitsuyama (18-10)

Drone (20-8)

Torideyama will not be joining us this tournament after all. We can look forward to his participation next time I am told.

Only Fay has mamaged 2 matches per rikishi. The rest of us are two bouts short. Did I miss a couple of guys? (I am updating the results manually).

Good luck on day 5.

Itachi

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

Only Fay has mamaged 2 matches per rikishi. The rest of us are two bouts short. Did I miss a couple of guys? (I am updating the results manually).

I think you missed a couple of guys. By my count I am 19-11. You can always use the Customized Sumo Results of the Sumo Information site to create lists of rikishi and even bookmark that. This should make it much easier for you.

[Fay 1,677]

Here are the results after 4 days.

Only Fay has mamaged 2 matches per rikishi. The rest of us are two bouts short. Did I miss a couple of guys? (I am updating the results manually).

Good luck on day 5.

Itachi

Oh, and I already thought, it looks not so bad with me like in any other game (Blushing...)

[Itachi 396]

Only Fay has mamaged 2 matches per rikishi. The rest of us are two bouts short. Did I miss a couple of guys? (I am updating the results manually).

I think you missed a couple of guys. By my count I am 19-11. You can always use the Customized Sumo Results of the Sumo Information site to create lists of rikishi and even bookmark that. This should make it much easier for you.

Thanks Doitsuyama!

I probably shouldn't bother staying up late to post the results since my eyes aren't much good by the time NSK posts them. I still haven't succeeded in extracting the data in a form I can use to automatically calculate results each night but the customized sumo results page is easier to read results from and I've corrected my previous work.

Here are the revised (and hopefully correct) win/loss records so far + # 2-0 riksihi (expected kk)

Fay (18-12) +6

Itachi (21-9) +6

Sekihiryu (16-14) +5

Tamanogijima (16-14) +2

Doitsuyama (19-11) +5

Drone (19-11) +5

Once again, if there is something not correct, let me know so I can improve my system.

Based only on wins and losses so far, here are the projected wins out of 15.

Fay 9

Itachi 10.5

Sekihiryu 8

Tamanogijima 8

Doitsuyama 9.5

Drone 9.5

Factoring in projected kk (only 2-0 counted, not 1-1)

Fay 8.625

Itachi 9.9375

Sekihiryu 7.625

Tamanogijima 7.25

Doitsuyama 8.9375

Drone 8.9375

Fay and I seem to be in the best position to win groups and possibly the yusho with our 6 undefeated rikishi but it is still quite early.

Stay tuned, things can change quickly as each bout represents a large % of each rikishi's total (as you know from the Makushita Game)

Itachi

[Fay 1,677]

Fay and I seem to be in the best position to win groups and possibly the yusho with our 6 undefeated rikishi but it is still quite early.

Hahahahaha, the best joke I heard since a long time, (as far as I'm concerned (Nodding yes...))

[Itachi 396]

Here are the win/loss records after day 5; projected win/loss average out of 15; and projected # of kk.

Fay (21-18) ; 8.1 ; 7

Itachi (26-11) ; 10.5 ; 7

Sekihiryu (19-18) ; 7.703 ; 6

Tamanogijima (19-16) ; 8.14 ; 4

Doitsuyama (22-13) ; 9.4286 ; 6

Drone (23-14) ; 9.32 ; 6

[Itachi 396]

After 6 days here are the win/loss, projected average win/loss, and # of kk

Fay (24-21) ; 8 ; 9

Itachi (31-14) ; 10.3 ; 12

Sekihiryu (24-21) ; 8 ; 9

Tamanogijima (23-22) ; 7.67 ; 8

Doitsuyama (28-17) ; 9.3333 ; 10

Drone (29-16) ; 9.67 ; 11

The group win and yusho points aren't part of this yet but it seems that kk is not too difficult (nor too easy?)

[Itachi 396]

After 7 days here are the win/loss, projected average win/loss, and # of kk

Fay (27-25) ; 7.8 ; 5

Itachi (34-17) ; 10 ; 9

Sekihiryu (30-21) ; 8.82 ; 9

Tamanogijima (28-25) ; 7.92 ; 6

Doitsuyama (32-20) ; 9.2308 ; 9

Drone (35-17) ; 10.1 ; 11

Soon I will attempt to project group winners and incorporate those points.

Poor Fay has had a tough couple of days and has now fallen below Tamanogijima who has struggled all along.

The Drone has passed Itachi (me) to take the lead. If the Drone wins, that is good news in a way because the Drone's picks are based on our collective ones. The Drone's own unique picks where there wasn't a most popular pick from us were Hatayama (3-1) and Isetsukasa (1-3) so the strength of the Drone team comes from our own wise selections.

Perhaps next I'll prepare a second drone to select the rikishi with the best record last tournament (with best record the previous tourney as tie-breaker?). I wonder which drone would win?

Anyway, kachikoshi seems to be manageable in this game.

Good luck on Nakabi

[Fay 1,677]

Poor Fay has had a tough couple of days and has now fallen below Tamanogijima who has struggled all along.

Not only me, my boys are struggling hard for their KK. But I'm really glad all behave well on the dohyo, even when they fall down and aside (although there are some foreigners in my pick ...) (Neener, neener...)

[Asashosakari 19,655]

Perhaps next I'll prepare a second drone to select the rikishi with the best record last tournament (with best record the previous tourney as tie-breaker?). I wonder which drone would win?

FWIW, that drone would be 31-29 after day 8 if I didn't screw things up too badly.

[Itachi 396]

With thanks to Asashosakari for giving us a look at the alternate drone score, here are the win/loss records, projected wins out of 15, and projected # of kk after 8 days. I haven't had time to work in the group wins yet but I hope to do that soon.

Fay (33-27) ; 8.3 ; 4

Itachi (39-21) ; 9.75 ; 7

Sekihiryu (33-27) ; 8.25 ; 7

Tamanogijima (29-31) ; 7.25 ; 4

Doitsuyama (37-23) ; 9.25 ; 8

Drone#1(most popular) (39-21) ; 9.75 ; 9