What if Miyabiyama goes 10-5?

[Peterao 3]

While it is still in the realm of possibility, what would be the likely result if Miyabiyama wins the rest of his matches to finish 10-5?

1. Promotion to Ozeki
   
2. Possibility for Ozeki promotion next basho
   
3. Ozeki hopes go back to square one
   

With the glut of ozeki we have already, I would think that 10-5 probably wouldn't be strong enough to receive promotion, but would be just enough for Miyabiyama to try again next basho.

But I've been proven wrong in these forums time and time again, so let's see what happens here. (Scratching chin...)

[sashimaru 10]

With a 10-5 he will be promoted to Ozeki, IMHO.

[James H 0]

With a 10-5 he will be promoted to Ozeki, IMHO.

I reckon so too. He'll be 34 wins for the 3 basho - that's got to count for something.

[Asojima 2,874]

IMHO, he will go 10-5, and he will not get it yet.

[Zuikakuyama 1]

Well, the talk this basho has always been 11 wins, and I thought that this was overly harsh.

This is like requiring 35 wins, and I think someone has already done a hakke-yoi search showing that no one has failed to win promotion with 34 (or was it 33?) wins in sanyaku.

Plus if he gets 10 wins, it will be all double digit wins in all 3 bashos, so I don't see how they can deny him.

[Itachi 396]

I see he faces Kotomitsuki tomorrow and Tochiazuma today - who does he face on Senshuraku? If he beats Hakuho or Asashoryu I'd say promote him with 10 wins. If he only beats Tamakasuga or someone like that then maybe not.

Even if he misses, if he could just keep his confidence and continue to have drive and ambition then perhaps he will find his way back to Ozeki once 'Azuma, Kaio, and 'Taikai either fade out or retire. It can't be long for those guys though they do have a knack for bouncing back. Also, if Kotooshu continues to fizzle, perhaps he may sink into a Dejima-Miyabiyama role for a few years opening up more opportunity for Miyabi-zeki.

As for me, I have been hoping for Wakanosato to complete an Ozeki run but perhaps it isn't possible anymore with all the injury set-backs he's had.

[aderechelsea 125]

the number indicate he should be an Ozeki again but my personal image of his sumo is not Ozeki-like ... Now that i am thinking about it Kaio's sumo is neither Ozeki-like but he holds that rank for quite some time now ....

anyway you should all be glad that i am not making these decisions ... (Scratching chin...)

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

the number indicate he should be an Ozeki again but my personal image of his sumo is not Ozeki-like ... Now that i am thinking about it Kaio's sumo is neither Ozeki-like but he holds that rank for quite some time now ....

anyway you should all be glad that i am not making these decisions ... (Scratching chin...)

Well... in principle I see it the way you see it... but... you did miss last basho, didn't you?

Edit: I must take exception on your Kaio remark though.

Edited July 21, 2006 by Doitsuyama

[aderechelsea 125]

nope ... i was dohyo-side .... (Scratching chin...)

EDIT: i forgot to tell you that you have greetings from the Taito Ryokan receptionist. He mentioned that a sumo-crazy (like me) German guy stayed there last year ....

Edited July 21, 2006 by aderechelsea

[Guest Super Sumo Fan]

I see he faces Kotomitsuki tomorrow and Tochiazuma today - who does he face on Senshuraku? If he beats Hakuho or Asashoryu I'd say promote him with 10 wins. If he only beats Tamakasuga or someone like that then maybe not.

This is his record so far:

Miyabiyama

7-5

1st day- l oshitaoshi Roho

2nd day- w oshidashi Kyokushuzan

3rd day- w no contest Asasekiryu

4th day- l oshidashi Kaio

5th day- w hikiotoshi Kisenosato

6th day- l oshidashi Chiyotaikai

7th day- l hatakikomi Kotooshu

8th day- w hikiotoshi Kotoshogiku

9th day- w hatakikomi Hakuho

10th day- l yoritaoshi Asashoryu

11th day- w oshidashi Hakurozan

12th day- w hatakikomi Baruto

As you can see, he has lost to all of the higher ranking rikishi thus far, with the exception of Hakuho. I don`t know if they look at WHO they won and lost against, but it would matter to me.

[Guest Jubin]

This is like requiring 35 wins, and I think someone has already done a hakke-yoi search showing that no one has failed to win promotion with 34 (or was it 33?) wins in sanyaku.

You are right. Nobody fail with 33 wins. He must be promoted even with 9-6.

[aderechelsea 125]

the numbers (the sum of wins) may tell that he should be promoted but a 9-win 3rd basho is never good for an Ozeki-run ....

it doesn't leave good taste.

He SHOULD get double digits to stand a chance (now that we already have 5 Ozekis i am certain they won't stretch things to give him the promotion)

[Itachi 396]

I see he faces Kotomitsuki tomorrow and Tochiazuma today - who does he face on Senshuraku? If he beats Hakuho or Asashoryu I'd say promote him with 10 wins. If he only beats Tamakasuga or someone like that then maybe not.

This is his record so far:

Miyabiyama

7-5

1st day- l oshitaoshi Roho

2nd day- w oshidashi Kyokushuzan

3rd day- w no contest Asasekiryu

4th day- l oshidashi Kaio

5th day- w hikiotoshi Kisenosato

6th day- l oshidashi Chiyotaikai

7th day- l hatakikomi Kotooshu

8th day- w hikiotoshi Kotoshogiku

9th day- w hatakikomi Hakuho

10th day- l yoritaoshi Asashoryu

11th day- w oshidashi Hakurozan

12th day- w hatakikomi Baruto

As you can see, he has lost to all of the higher ranking rikishi thus far, with the exception of Hakuho. I don`t know if they look at WHO they won and lost against, but it would matter to me.

It looks to me as though he'll face Kyokutenho. It seems likely that he could beat 'Tenho if he can somehow beat both 'Azuma and 'Mitsuki. 'Azuma may the toughest - though he's not at his best. Perhpas after tonight we will know if he can do it. I find myself convinced about the 10 wins being adequate. 9 though, I just don't think they'll do it without double digit wins in the last basho.

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

nope ... i was dohyo-side .... (Holiday feeling...)

EDIT: i forgot to tell you that you have greetings from the Taito Ryokan receptionist. He mentioned that a sumo-crazy (like me) German guy stayed there last year ....

Ah yes, right! So your illness didn't prevent you from seeing the really important things, it was just the miserable World Cup, so everything's ok after all! (just kidding... to tell the truth the World Cup was fannntastic).

And I remember, the "receptionist" (actually he owns the Ryokan if it was Kenichi) wrote me an email at last basho to extend your greetings.

[Oimeru 0]

With 9-6 I would personally give it a definitive no. There already are 5 ozeki, inflation is no good.

However, Hakke-yoi says that there is only one precedent where a rikishi started his ozeki run in a sanyaku rank, got 33 wins and was not promoted: Kotogahama in 1958.

[Hakuyobaku 33]

It looks like the decider will be tomorrow vs Kotomitsuki. Mickey seems to ruin everyone's chances fro ozeki/yokozuna so .... :)

[slt 9]

Considering his past demotion from the rank, pretty weak record against higher-ranked opponents (except for Hakuho, which of course can't just be ignored, and Tochiazuma, arguably a bit injured), the fact that one of his wins was a fusensho, and the fact that if he loses one more it will be to someone lower ranked than him... I think he needs the 10 wins.

I have no idea how the Kyokai operates, of course, but that would be my guess.

[ikishima 0]

10-5, he is in. I think that discussion won't take five minutes even if we don't understand how the Kyokai thinks, and none of us do. 9-6 gives him 33 wins over three basho. That would usually be good enough but who knows.

The thing to remember is that his 14-1 was a great record.

TRIVIA WARNING

I tried to look at Hakke yoi and I only found 20 14 win or better records since 5/1950 by non-ozeki/yokozuna. 12 of those 20 eventually were promoted to ozeki or yokozuna. the last rikishi to pull off that feat was Kotonishi from M12w in Kyushu 98.

[Muhomatsu 246]

I think 10-5 is a "one more basho" from the Kyokai.

I just cannot see them giving it to him with a 10-5.

To be sure, he had a good run and he would meet the minimum 33 wins. However, just 10 wins in the last basho is a bit too little. 11 wins, and he would have it for sure.

They will let him try again.

14

11

11 and he gets it.

I cannot find anyone promoted to Ozeki with only 10 wins in their "promotion" basho in recent memory.

Even Takanohana went 10-14-11 (wins) in his basho prior to promotion to Ozeki.

Also, like Miyabiyama - Wahanohana III won 10-14-10 and was NOT promoted back in 1993.

Muhomatsu

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

Also, like Miyabiyama - Wahanohana III won 10-14-10 and was NOT promoted back in 1993.

You conveniently neglect to mention that the first 10-5 was at M3 which is a rather huge difference.

Kitanoumi Rijicho: (On Miya-babe's ozeki prospects if he wins double digits) I wouldn't be surprised if it came up for discussion.

If I may translate this sentence from Kitanoumi-speak to English: "He is a 100% shoo-in with 10-5."

[ikishima 0]

If I may translate this sentence from Kitanoumi-speak to English: "He is a 100% shoo-in with 10-5."

I concur. Your translation of Kitanoumi-speak is dead on.

Edited July 21, 2006 by ikishima

[Gusoyama 104]

Don't forget the fusen win. I think even with 10, they'll mention that default, and say "Well, its really only 9 earned wins".

[Asashosakari 19,646]

Don't forget the fusen win.

Well, I think I will. Seriously, please name a previous instance where fusensho were seriously said to influence a promotion decision. (Random middle-of-the-basho interviews with equally random oyakata which are forgotten the next day don't count.)

Edit: To put it a different way - if Asasekiryu had hobbled onto the dohyo on Day 3 and proceeded to lose to Miyabiyama in .7 seconds by collapsing upon impact, that would have made it an "earned" win?

Edited July 21, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Naganoyama 5,945]

Kitanoumi Rijicho: (On Miya-babe's ozeki prospects if he wins double digits) I wouldn't be surprised if it came up for discussion.

If I may translate this sentence from Kitanoumi-speak to English: "He is a 100% shoo-in with 10-5."

:-)

[Guest Jubin]

I cannot find anyone promoted to Ozeki with only 10 wins in their "promotion" basho in recent memory.

Even Takanohana went 10-14-11 (wins) in his basho prior to promotion to Ozeki.

Also, like Miyabiyama - Wahanohana III won 10-14-10 and was NOT promoted back in 1993.

Muhomatsu

There is one promotion

Takanohana in 1972: 11-12-10 and promoted with 33wins